PROBABILITY ITVE/OL

PROBABILITY Queen(Q), King(K)

- 26 red cards (Hearts & Diamonds),
Leaning Objectives: 26 black cards (Spades & Clubs)
By the end of this lesson, learners should be - 4 Aces (one in each suit)
able to: - 12 Face cards (Jack, Queen, King ×
4)
- Explain and apply the concept of  Event (E): It is any of the possible
probability. outcomes or A ⊆S: Event A is a
- Calculate probabilities using coins, subset of S (e.g., getting an even
dice, and cards. number on a die)
- Use addition and multiplication  Favorable Outcomes: Outcomes
laws. that satisfy an event
- Solve compound and conditional  Random: Equal likelihood for all
probability problems. outcomes
- Use and interpret tree diagrams.
Probability Scale
1. Description and Revision of Vocabulary
Probability ranges from 0 (impossible) to 1
 Trial: A single performance of an (certain)
experiment (e.g., tossing a coin) - 0: Impossible event
 Experiment: Any repeatable - 0.5: Even chance
procedure that gives outcomes - 1: Certain event
 Outcome: A result of a trial (e.g.,
getting Head) Probability of an Event
 Sample Space (S): The set of all Formula:
possible outcomes
 Probability Space 𝑃(𝐸) =
(Number of favorable outcomes) 𝑛(𝐸)
= 𝑛(𝑆)
(All possible outcomes )
Examples:
 Tossing a coin: S = {Head, Tail} ⟹ 𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑛(𝑆)
 Rolling a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Examples;
 Picking a ball from a bag: S = {Red,
Blue, Green} 1) Find the probability of obtaining an
 A standard pack of 52 cards odd number in the set
contains: {1, 2, 3, … … 10}
Hearts (♥), Diamonds (♦), Solution 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, … … 10}
𝑆={ }
Clubs (♣), Spades (♠) ⟹ 𝑛(𝑆) = 10
Structure of a Standard Pack. It Let E be the event of “odd
contains: numbers”
- 4 suits: Hearts (♥), Diamonds (♦), 𝐸 = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} ⟹ 𝑛(𝐸) = 5
Clubs (♣), Spades (♠) Therefore ⟹ 𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝐸) 5
= 10
𝑛(𝑆)
Each suits has
1
- 13 cards per suit: A, 2–10, Jack (J), =
2

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2) A fair die is thrown. Find the 1) Given that . A is

probability that the number which the event of odd numbers find P(A) and
appears is an even number
Solution Solution
Rolling a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, … … 10} ⟹ 𝑛(𝑆) = 10
Let E be the event of “even 𝐴 = {1,3,5,7,9} ⇒ 𝑛(𝐴) = 5
𝑛(𝐴) 5 1
numbers” 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛(𝑆) = 10 = 2 And
⟹𝐸 = {2,4,6} ⟹ 𝑛(𝐸) = 3
𝑛(𝐸) 3 1 1 1
Therefore ⟹ 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑛(𝑆)
=6=2 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 2 = 2
3) From a pack of well-shuffled playing
2) In a class of Form 5, the probability of
cards, a card is selected at random. 1
Find the probability that getting a boy is 𝑃(𝐵) = 4, find the
a) A heart is obtained probability of getting a girl P(G).
b) A red is obtained Solution
c) A face card is obtained 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐺) = 1
d) An Ace of spades is obtained ⟹ 𝑃(𝐺) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵)
1 3
⇒ 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 4 = 4
Solution
a) P (Heart) = 13/52 = 1/4 Compound Events
b) P (Red) = 26/52 = 1/2
c) P (Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13 For any two events A and B:
d) P (Ace of Spades) = 1/52 P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
- A ∪ B: Union – A or B happens
4) An experiment consist of tossing a - A ∩ B: Intersection – both A and B happen
coin thrice
a) List all the possible Example (Rolling a die):
outcomes
b) What is the probability of A fair die is thrown. Two events A and B are
getting two heads? obtained such that
c) Find the probability of A is an “even numbers” and B is a
getting at least one tail “numbers > 3”
d) What is the probability of Then: find the probability of obtaining A or
having either all heads all
B.
tails?
Solution is left as activity for Solution
students
Rolling a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2,4,6},
Complementary Events (Aᶜ or 𝐴′): B = {4,5,6}
Complement – A does not happen - A ∪ B = {2,4,5,6}
- A ∩ B = {4,6}
P (Not A) = 1 – P(A) or 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = 3/6 + 3/6 -
Examples:
2/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

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Mutually Exclusive Events: If two events A Conditional Probability

and B cannot occur together, then we says
that A and B are mutually exclusive. I.e Two If two event A and B are such that P (A) ≠ 0
events A and B are mutually exclusive if and P (B) ≠ 0, then;

A ∩ B = ∅. - The probability of A given that B

P(A ∩ B) = 0 has already occurred is written as
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A/B) and defined by 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
Example: 𝑃(𝐵)
- The probability of B given that A
Given the set S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and the
has already occurred is written as
event A is the set of even = {2, 4, 6}, B the
P(B/A) and defined by 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) =
set of odd numbers. Show that A and B are 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
mutually exclusive and hence find the 𝑃(𝐴)
probability obtaining A or B. Example: From a pack of well-
shuffled playing cards, find the
Solution probability that withdrawing a king
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A= {2, 4, 6}, and B = given that it is a red card.
{1, 3, 5} Solution
- A ∩ B = ∅ ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = 0. Therefore A 2 1
P(King ∩ Face) = 52 = 26 and P(Red)
and B are mutually exclusive events.
26 1
Hence, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
3 3 = =
52 2
6 6
6 P (King given red)
= 1 ⟹ Certain event P(King ∩ Face)
6
P(King/Red) =
𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑)
Independent Events 1
1 2 1
26
⇒ P(King/Red) = 1 = 26 × 1 = 13
2
Two events A and B are said to be
independent if the probability that occurs Tree Diagrams:
does not depend on whether or not the
other had occurred. Ie If two events A and B Definition: A tree diagram is a diagram that
are independent: shows all the possible outcomes of an
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) experiment in a structured, branching
Example: In an experiment, a coin is tossed format. It is particularly useful for
at the same time a card is drawn from a compound events (more than one trial).
pack. What is the probability that an
Structure of a Tree Diagram
outcome will be a head and a red card?
- Each branch represents an outcome. E.g
Solution.
tossing a coin one time
Tossing a coin P (Head) = 1/2 and drawing a
red card P (Red) = 26/52
P (Head and Red) = P (Head) ×P (Red) = 1/2
× 26/52 = 1/4

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(i) Two heads

(ii) At least one tail

Solution

- Probabilities are written along the

branches (see diagram above).
- The end paths show the final outcomes of
all trials (see diagram above).
- The product of probabilities along a path
gives the total probability of that outcome.

e.g
Each toss is independent: P(H) = ½, P(T) = ½

Outcomes & Probabilities:

- HH: ½ × ½ = ¼
- HT: ½ × ½ = ¼
- TH: ½ × ½ = ¼
- TT: ½ × ½ = ¼

P(A∩B) = P(A)×P(B/A) Answers:

- (i) Two heads = P(HH) = ¼
- Add probabilities of different paths for - (ii) At least one tail = 1 – P(HH) = 1 – ¼ = ¾
"OR" type questions. Here we add.
Example 2: With Replacement
i.e P(A∩B) or P(A’∩B) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩B)
A bag contains 4 red and 5 blue ball. Two
Probability tree diagram is the better way balls are drawn with replacement.
to deal with probability with or without Find the probability of:
replacements. (i) both red
(ii) one red and one blue (in any order)
Example 1: Two Coin Tosses (With
Replacement) Solution

Definition Probabilities:
4
- P(Red) = 9
- With Replacement: The item is put back
5
after selection. Probabilities remain the - P(Blue) =
9
same for each trial.

A fair coin is tossed twice. Draw a tree

diagram and find the probability of:

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Outcomes:
4 4 16 Answers:
- 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑑) = × =
9 9 81 3 2 6
4 5 20 - (i) P(Both red) = 𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝑅) = 10 × 9 = 90
- 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 9 × 9 = 81
5 4 16 - (ii) P(one green and one red) = 𝑃(𝐺 ∩
- 𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑑) = × = 7 3 21
9 9 81 𝑅) = 10 × 9 = 90
5 5 25
- 𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 9 × 9 = 81
Answers: - (iii) P( same colors) = 𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝑅) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐺 ∩
16 6 7 6 6 42 49
- (i) Both red⇒ 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑑) = 𝐺) = + × = + =
81 90 10 10 90 90 90
- (ii) One red and one blue ⇒
20 Laws of Probability
𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 81
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛(𝑆)
Example 3: Without Replacement

A bag contains 7 Green balls and 3 Red - Addition: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
balls. Two balls are drawn with P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) (if mutually
replacement. exclusive)
Find the probability of: - Multiplication: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (if
(i) both red independent)
(ii) one Green and one red (in any order) - Conditional: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
(iii) both green or red
- Complementary: P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
Solution
Probability in Real Life Situations
First Draw:
7 - Insurance: Probability used to calculate
- P(G) = 10
3 risk
- P(R) = 10
- Weather: Forecasts use probability models
- Genetics: Inheritance of traits
Second Draw Changes:
- Games: Winning chances and betting odds
- If first is G → we are left with 6G and 3R →
6 3
P(G) = 9 and 𝑃(𝑅) = 9
- If first is R → we are left with 2R and 7G →
2 7
P(R) = 9 and 𝑃(𝑅) = 9

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Common Events in a Deck

Event Count Probability

Drawing an 4 4/52 = 1/13

Ace

Drawing a 12 12/52 = 3/13

face card

Drawing a 26 26/52 = 1/2

red card

Drawing a 2 2/52 = 1/26

black Queen

Drawing a 13 13/52 = 1/4

spade

Drawing a 36 36/52 = 9/13

number card
(2–10)

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