Disease Lab
Go to https://www.learner.org/wp-content/interactive/envsci/disease/disease.html and select Lesson ‘Virgin Field’.
First, click the Details button on Impfluenza and Kold to compare the differences between the two diseases. Based on these
differences and what you know about Kold, predict the sick days per capita and death rate for Impfluenza at medium
population and medium mixing. Record your prediction in your data table.
Then select Lesson Vaccination, then set Vaccinated to None to provide the virgin field effect. Population Density and
Mixing should both be Medium. Then run the simulator to 100 days three times. Include any necessary screenshots.
Answer the following:
1. Was your prediction correct? If not, why not?
2. Notice that Impfluenza, unlike Kold, has a death rate. How many people die, on average, when you run the simulator on the
virgin field?
3. How does a death toll change precautionary factors? What kinds of precautions might you take with Impfluenza that you
might not have taken with Kold?
4. Would you consider Impfluenza's death toll to warrant a “state of emergency”? How high would the numbers have to be for
this to happen?
In this step we vaccinate a certain percentage of the vaccinated population against Impfluenza. This represents a real-life
scenario, where the country vaccinates a certain portion of its population against the expected influenza strains for that
year.
Select Lesson Vaccination. Predict and record the sick days per capita and death toll % at medium population and medium
mixing, with 50% of the population vaccinated. Run the simulator three times and record your data. Repeat with 90%
vaccinated. Compare your results to the table in Lesson 2 Step 1.
Then change the parameters to high population and high mixing. Predict what will happen at 50% and 90% vaccination,
and run the simulator three times with each, recording your data for each run. Include any necessary screenshots. Answer
the following:
1. For the first set of parameters (medium/medium), how does the vaccine reduce sick days? How large a percentage of the
population would have to be immunized in order to bring the sick days per capita reliably below 0.1 per capita?
2. How does using vaccination compare to changing the mixing or population density?
In the United States in recent years, there has been increasing public resistance to vaccination, especially against measles
and influenza. The reasons are complex, including religious objections, health care access and costs, a lack of public
confidence in the annual influenza vaccine, and an assumption that “vanquished” diseases such as polio and measles are no
longer a threat. But these diseases have not been eradicated. People die of them every year. By keeping vaccination rates
high, we've enjoyed “herd immunity”, where a high proportion of immune individuals block disease propagation. This
protects weaker, more susceptible members of society who cannot be vaccinated, such as infants in the case of measles.
Lower vaccination rates reduce our herd immunity.
In this step, using Measles to stand in for measles, explore on your own to see why it is that Measles requires a high
vaccination rate to prevent deaths. Then answer the following:
1. What is it about Measles that requires a high vaccination rate to prevent deaths?
2. Although more people die of influenza each year, they are largely the elderly and infirm, while measles is more likely to kill
infants. Does this affect the popular will to control the two diseases?
3. Many families do not have health insurance or the means to pay for a vaccine. Would it be in the best interest of the overall
population to provide free immunization to those who cannot afford it? What are some counter-arguments to doing so?
Vaccinating a population has a similar effect to changing the population density. An immune person is no longer a vehicle
for transmitting the disease, thus lowering the effective density of the population. Since we can't control population
density in most cases, vaccination is one of the best means to prevent the spread of disease, not just to the vaccinated
individuals, but to the population as a whole. Stopping or slowing the mixing of people, via quarantine, or closing
businesses and schools, is also an option, with similar net effect. Although the common cold doesn't have a vaccine
available, you may choose to return to the simulator and experiment with the possibilities of immunizing a percentage of
your population to Kold.
There are four main types of vaccine: those containing a killed pathogen, those containing live strains of a pathogen, those
containing toxoids (the compounds produced by a pathogen that cause a human reaction, as opposed to injecting with the
microorganism), and those containing subunits of the pathogen (such as antigens or other proteins that create part of the
physical makeup of the microorganism). Newer genetically targeted vaccines are being developed, but although
preliminary tests look very positive, the constantly mutating genetic makeup of the more dangerous diseases prevents us
from distributing a vaccine without caution.
Further investigation:
Change the details of certain disease and conclude the impact.
