Technology Management
Identification Phase
NMIMS - Session 4
Arun Saxena
[email protected]
+91 98858 21957
M1 Test – div. H
• Date: 4th Feb
• Syllabus: Chapter: 1,4,8,10,11
• Technology framework, identification, forecasting,, S-
curve, Road mapping, patent analysis
• Duration: 15 minutes
M2 Test – div. H
• Date: 11th Mar
• Syllabus: Chapter: 2,3,7,9,13
• Selection, acquisition, exploitation, portfolio
management, value analysis
• Duration: 15 minutes
Project / Term paper dates – div. H
• 11th Feb : Content Analysis
• 11th Mar: Patent Analysis
• 1st April: Performance Growth Curve
• 15th April : Roadmap with final submission
• Define technology
Defining technology
• Is the way an organization produces outputs from inputs
(economics definition) –
• includes labor, raw materials, equipment and processes
• Hardware: computers, smartphones, cars, voting machine,
laser cutting, sensors,..
• Software: AI, databases, algorithm, …
• Activities: Designing of devices, Cloud computing, smart
manufacturing, 3D printing
• Knowledge: know-how, know-why
• Systematized knowledge applied to alter, control, or order
elements of the physical or social environments.
• Define forecast
Forecast
• To estimate or calculate in advance...
• [To make] a conjecture concerning the future
What is technology forecasting
• Activity and method for predicting the future
performance characteristics and timing of a specific
technology
• Materials, components, machines, processes, techniques
• Speed, density, power, efficiency…
What is technology forecasting
• Forecasting is not about predicting ways that the future
technology will be achieved
• Forecaster is not required to invent the technology being
forecast
• Forecaster may predict characteristics that exceed the
limitations of current technical approaches
What do you forecast about technology
Likelihood Rate of
Growth in Diffusion rate
and timing of replacement
functional of the new
tech of old with
capability tech
breakthrough new tech
Four elements of a technology forecast
• The technology being forecast
• Be clear what is being forecasted – technology or technical approaches
• Technology is
• a set of technical approaches to solve a problem
• a family or series of technical approaches that have some major characteristic in
common or that perform the same function.
• Example –
• Lighting is a technology.
• Incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, CFL, LED are different technical approaches
to the function of providing light.
• Jet engines is a technology
• Turbofans and turbojets are the technical approaches
Four elements of a technology forecast
• The time when the forecast is to be realized.
• May be a single point in time or a time span.
• The time of the forecast should be stated clearly
Four elements of a technology forecast
• The characteristics of the technology
• Functional capability
• Technical capability
• For a jet engine
• Functional: thrust, fuel consumption, thrust-to-weight ratio
• Technical: turbine inlet temperature, compression ratio
• A designer uses technical capabilities to achieve functional
capabilities
Four elements of a technology forecast
• The probability of the forecast coming true
• In practice not forecast is not accurate both about the technology
characteristic as well as time of realization
Forecasting requires
information
• Demand analysis
• Social and demographics analysis
• Political analysis
• Information on current research topics
• Patents
• Market analysis
• Competitor analysis
• Regulatory environment
• Tell us – any famous technological forecast you
remember
Few famous forecasts – Moore’s Law (1965)
Chart Title
1E+10
9E+09
8E+09
7E+09
6E+09
5E+09
4E+09
3E+09
2E+09
1E+09
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Why forecast technology
• Any individual, organization, or nation can be affected by
technological change
• A change in technology can render specific business decisions useless
• All business decisions have some amount of forecast built into it
To be useful
• Technological forecasts do not necessarily need to predict the precise
form technology will take in each application at some specific future
date.
• Like any other forecasts, their purpose is simply to help evaluate
the probability and significance of various possible future
developments so that managers can make better decisions.
• Technology forecast makes managers aware of the state of
technology likely at a given point in future
• Managers can prepare to either meet the threat of new technology or to
exploit the new technology for new opportunities
• Why should individuals forecast technology?
• Why should companies forecast technology?
• Why should countries forecast technology?
Why forecast technology
• To maximize gain or minimize loss from future conditions
Alternatives to forecasting
• No forecast:
• Face the future blindfolded
• Anything can happen
• Represents the attitude that the future is a complete gamble, that nothing can be done to
influence it in a desired direction
• The glorious past
• Ignore the future. We must have done the right things since we have survived for so long
• Window-blind forecasting
• Future will be like the past, only more – faster, bigger, better. Changes happen only in one
direction
• Crisis action
• "pushing the panic button." Waiting for the crisis to happen then taking some urgent action
• Genius forecasting
• finding a "genius" and asking him or her for an intuitive forecast.
• What is required is a forecast based on rational and explicit methods
• Formal forecasting methods are intended to replace subjective
opinion with objective data and replicable methods.
Technology forecasting philosophies
Counter
Extrapolation Pattern analysis Goal analysis Intuition
punching
• future is a • future will • future will be • future will be • future will be
logical reflect a determined the result of shaped by a
extension of replication of by some events that complex set
the past some past individuals are of factors
and unpredictable
institutions
Approach Representative Methods
Growth curves, Technology trends analysis, Fisher-Pry analysis,
1 Extrapolation
Gompertz analysis, Growth limit analysis, Learning curve
Analogy analysis, pre-cursor trend analysis, Morphological matrices,
2 Pattern analysis
feedback models
Impact analysis, Content analysis, Stakeholder analysis, Patent
3 Goal analysis
analysis
Scanning, monitoring and tracking, Alternate scenario, Monte Carlo
4 Counter punching
models,
Delphi survey, Nominal group conferencing, Interviews, Technology
5 Intuition
advanced management
Important
The most comprehensive and useful forecasts are
the result of a combination of these approaches.
Each approach, in and of itself, may provide a
limited perspective on a technology’s future worth.
• Method 1 – ask the expert
Intuition - Delphi survey method
• Expert opinion is required when
• no historical data exist as in the case of new technologies
• past data is irrelevant because the external factors impacting technology development have changed
over time e.g., political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal factors
• nuclear power
• inherently subjective ethical or moral considerations dominate the economic and technical
considerations
• expert opinion may be the only possible source of a forecast.
• Gene edited babies – CRISPR babies
• How to obtain expert opinion?
Delphi survey - intuitive
approach
• Share the technology forecast created earlier or a the
questionnaire individually with experts empaneled
• Members share their feedback on the forecast with the
coordinator
• Coordinator aggregates the responses and share them
incognito with the members asking if they would like to revise
their feedback
• After few rounds, the forecast might converge, and coordinator
creates the final forecast
• Retains the advantage of having several judges while cancelling
out the biases
• Knowledge of one member may compensate for anothers lack
of it
• Method 2 – forecasting by analogy
• What is an analogy?
Examples of analogy
• OLED TV diffusion pattern
similar to LCD TV
diffusion
• iPhone X sales similar to
iPhone IX sales
Forecasting by
analogy
Forecasting by analogy involves a
systematic comparison of the
technology to be forecast with
some earlier technology that is
believed to have been similar in all
or most important respects.
Based on pattern analysis philosophy
• What is “similar" technology and what
dimensions are "important“ to compare?
Selecting similar technologies
• The success of a forecast by analogy depends upon choosing
technologies that are truly analogous to the one being forecast.
• A technology that is insufficiently similar will give no useful
information.
• A technology that performs the same function as the one to be
forecast is a natural candidate
• Technologies from other functions are also useful to consider
Selecting similar technologies
• Technologies from other functions are also useful to consider
• Ex: heliostats solar technology - Krawiec (1983)
• The forecasting team was looking for industrial and commercial components
that were like those used in heliostat designs.
• They found many analogous technologies in
• Automobiles, a radio telescope, aircraft windshields, laminated mirrors,
aircraft landing gear, personal calculators, metal door sash and trim, conduit
raceways, drive wheel transmissions, metal household furniture, truck and
bus bodies, and aircraft wings.
What do you compare –
technology dimensions
• Technological • Cultural
• Economic • Intellectual
• Managerial • Religious-ethical
• Political • Ecological
• Social
The technological dimension
• Comparison of two technologies on technological dimension requires
to compare strengths and weaknesses of the
• Alternate technologies that perform the same function as the technology
under forecast
• Support technologies
• Transistor density on the chip is limited by the lithographic capability in etching finer
lines on silicon
• ICE engine horsepower is limited by machinists’ ability to bore large cylinders
• Complementary technologies
• Sun and planet gear is required to convert reciprocating motion into rotary motion;
without this gear, many applications of a steam engine were not possible
Other dimensions
• Economic dimension
• the ability and willingness of the customer in both the model and the present cases,
to pay for the technology
• Managerial dimension
• the levels of managerial capability in the model and current situations relative to the
size and complexity of the task
• Social dimension
• the people in the society, their institutions, and their traditions and customs
• Intellectual dimension
• intellectual leaders such as decision makers for public and private organizations,
people who speak on behalf of prestigious institutions or causes, and opinion leaders
such as editors, writers, and TV reporters may support or oppose technology
adoption
Other dimensions
• Cultural dimension
• the values, attitudes, and goals of the society into which the innovation is to
be introduced
• Examples of values
• health, comfort, physical security, economic security, productiveness,
honesty, fairness, charitableness, courtesy, freedom, justice, beauty, clearness
of conscience, intelligence, and professional recognition
• Ex: adoption of seat belts in cars, adoption of smart-phone
• Ecological dimension
• Environmental effects and ecological considerations are now taken seriousl
than before
Analogy analysis
Process: The results are typically semi-
quantitative in nature
A five step process – by Green and Armstrong Often presented as a range of possibilities rather than a
single projection.
Forecasting by Analogy –
Is nanotechnology like
01 02 03
Like Like biotechnology? Like something else
semiconductors? OR altogether?
OR
Dimensions in Biology and Silicon
E. Coli Red Blood
Protein Cells Diatom
CdSe
Nanocrystal Nanotube
memory PowerPC µP
SOI Xsistor
Source: MIT, OCW
Number of Firms
1600
Semiconductors Biotechnology Nanotechnology
1400
1200
1000
No. of Firms
800
600
400
200
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Years
Number of Patents
8948 8866
Semiconductors Biotechnology Nanotechnology 8011
6312
Number of Patents
4637
3635 3630
3441
3226
2750
2371
2100 2000
1900
1700
1500
1300
1100
900
700 621 583 479
500
186 174 307 346 322 341 440 328 325 372 482 287 407 334
60 92 79 73
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Year
Industry Revenues
$20
Billions
$18
Semiconductors Biotechnology Nanotechnology
$16
$14
$12
Revenue
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
Growth curves
• growth curve" represents a
loose analogy between the
growth in performance of a
technology and the growth
of a living organism. Despite
Using Growth Curves
• Forecasting by growth curves involves fitting a growth curve to a set
of data on technological performance, then extrapolating the growth
curve beyond the range of the data to obtain an estimate of future
performance.
• This activity involves three assumptions:
• The upper limit to the growth curve is known.
• The chosen growth curve to be fitted to the historical data is the correct one.
• The historical data gives the coefficients of the chosen growth curve formula
correctly.
Growth
curves
Trend exploration
• When a technical approach reaches its
limits, new approaches can be explored
till the [performance reaches the limit
set by physical laws
• Such behavior is illustrated in the
growth curves of locomotive engine
technical approaches
• If we are to forecast far into the future,
some method is needed that can
project progress beyond the upper limit
of the current technical approach.
• Trend extrapolation is the method used
for such forecast
Extrapolation
– trend
analysis
• Collect past data – time-series data
• Identify trend - fit a curve / line
• Linear, polynomial, exponential
Trend extrapolation –
efficiency of white
light
Trend
extrapolation
– chip density
Moore’s Law
Qualitative forecast
• Not all trends can be forecast
quantitatively
• Qualitative approach is used -
• When number of technologies involved is
very large and it is not possible to
forecast which of these will be improved
upon and when
•Extra slides
Forecasting is
“Predicting or
estimating a
future event”
What do you forecast?
Stock market Sensex, Nifty
Nations’ economy GDP growth rate
Weather Temperature, humidity, rainfall
Financial investment ROI
What do you forecast about technology?
• Econometrics
• Historical Analogies
• Input-Output Matrices
• New Trend Analysis Techniques
• Patent Trend Analysis
• Regression Analyses
• S-Curves
• Scientific Literature Analysis
Extrapolation approach is • Systems Dynamics
based on trends analysis • Time Series Estimation
• Trend Extrapolation
There is an upper limit to
performance
Growth
curves
assumptions The selected growth curve is
the right one for the
technology being forecasted
Technology forecast analysis
Select critical Major
Performance Phase Best estimate
parameters assumptions
5Gbps – 10
Speed Theoretical 40 Gbps
Gbps
limit
Range 20 meters Growth 30 meters
Operating
Error rate 1 in 1012 conditions 1 in 1012
Forecasting AI technology Products
Filling up cone of uncertainty
Tech 1
Tech 2
Tech 3
Tech 4
Fruit Apple ✓ ✓
Juices Juice
Beverages ✓ ✓
Aerated Orange
and Water
Drinks Juice
Market
Energy Lemon ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Drinks Juice
Paper Making
Growing Paper
Making Pulp Drying Pulp Paper Making Packing
Trees finishing
Water Stock
Forming
removal Preparation
Web
Thermal Mechanical
Management
Conventional Moisture
Hot Cylinder Thermal RF No pressing Chilling
pressing Levelling
Conventional
No Nip
Nip
Managerial implications
Technology Competence
Clear Leader Strong Favourable Tenable Weak
Maintain
Base
Don’t waste more resources
Alarm!
Build or source fast
Opportunity!
Key
Nurture, Leverage
Technology
Relevance
Pacing
Opportunity! Alarm!
Build Invest selectively
Emerging
The way you capture value also evolves
…..
We may not be leading
edge, but you better
Performance
buy from us because…
Sell, make, ship Speed, IP,
service - fast Differentiation
First mover
Speed, IP,
Differentiation
First mover T1 T2
Time / Investment
Saturation
– Tech Limitation
Maturity
Phase
Performance
Growth
Phase
Embryonic
Phase
T1 T2 T3
Emerging Pacing Key Basic
Tech Tech Tech Tech R&D / Time / Investment
We need to be
responsive & flexible
Saturation
but controlled
Performance – Tech Limitation
Can we make
100K of them
and service?
Will it work?
Exploration,
fun, creativity
T1 T2 T3
R&D / Time / Investment
Stay close to our
customers
Performance
Do we have any
customers?
Who needs
this?
T1 T2 T3
R&D / Time / Investment
We may not be leading
edge, but you better
buy from us because…
Performance
Sell, make, ship
service - fast
Speed, IP,
Differentiation
First mover
T1 T2 T3
R&D / Time / Investment
Coordinate and
control
Performance
Being agile and
lean
Entrepreneurial
energy
T1 T2 T3
R&D / Time / Investment
We need to be
responsive & flexible
but controlled
Performance
Can we make
100K of them
and service?
Will it work?
Exploration,
fun, creativity
T1 T2 T3
Emerging Pacing Key Basic
Tech Tech Tech Tech R&D / Time / Investment
DARPA DARPA DARPA
Grand Grand Grand
Chall. I Chall. II Chall. III
Military
Honda Home
Asimo Monitor
Robots
Electrolux
Appliances Triobite
Roomba Appliance
BOTS
Consumer
Markets
1998 99 04 06 07 Cuddly
robots
Lego Robosapien
Toys Mindstroms
Robot
Sony AIBO Hasbro Pony Compan-
ions
Linear Yt+1 = yt + kt
Polynomial Yt+1 = y0 + k1t + k2t2
Exponential Yt+1 = y0 ekt
What do you forecast about technology
Adoption
Market Technology rates for
needs advances new
technologies
Attributes of emerging technologies
• Radical novelty
• Relatively fast growth
• Coherence
• Prominent impact
• Uncertainty and ambiguity
Rotolo et al. (2015)
• Qualitative studies, such as the
• Delphi method
• interview analysis
• scenario analysis
• Have been used to forecast technology (Cho et al., 2014; Shen et al.,
2010)
• Technology road mapping (TRM) approach to technology forecasting
(Cho et al., 2016)
