A project is composed of eight (8) activities with duration as shown in the table below.
Activity Preceeding Most Most likely Most
activity optimistic Pessimistic
A - 2 4 12
B - 10 12 26
C A 8 9 10
D A 10 15 20
E A 7 7.5 11
F B,C 9 9 9
G D 3 3.5 7
H E,F,G 5 5 5
(i) Draw the PERT network for the project. (5 marks)
(ii) Prepare the activity schedule for the project (6 marks)
(iii) Determine the critical path. (11/2 marks)
(iv) If a 30- week deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be
finished within the time limit? (2 marks)
(i) Drawing the PERT Network
First, let's list all the activities with their immediate predecessors:
A: No predecessor
B: No predecessor
C: A
D: A
E: A
F: B, C
G: D
H: E, F, G
Now, let's represent this as a PERT network. Here's how the nodes and arrows would look:
1. Start with activities A and B since they have no predecessors.
2. After A, activities C, D, and E can start.
3. Activity F requires both B and C to be completed.
4. Activity G requires D to be completed.
5. Activity H requires E, F, and G to be completed.
Here's a textual representation of the PERT network:
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Start -> A -> C -> F -> H
A -> D -> G -> H
A -> E -> H
B -> F -> H
(ii) Activity Schedule
To prepare the activity schedule, we need to calculate the expected duration (te) and variance
(σ²) for each activity using the PERT formulas:
Expected duration (te) = (Optimistic + 4 * Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Variance (σ²) = [(Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6]²
Let's calculate these for each activity:
1. Activity A:
o te = (2 + 4*4 + 12) / 6 = (2 + 16 + 12) / 6 = 30 / 6 = 5
o σ² = [(12 - 2)/6]² = (10/6)² ≈ 2.78
2. Activity B:
o te = (10 + 4*12 + 26) / 6 = (10 + 48 + 26) / 6 = 84 / 6 = 14
o σ² = [(26 - 10)/6]² = (16/6)² ≈ 7.11
3. Activity C:
o te = (8 + 4*9 + 10) / 6 = (8 + 36 + 10) / 6 = 54 / 6 = 9
o σ² = [(10 - 8)/6]² = (2/6)² ≈ 0.11
4. Activity D:
o te = (10 + 4*15 + 20) / 6 = (10 + 60 + 20) / 6 = 90 / 6 = 15
o σ² = [(20 - 10)/6]² = (10/6)² ≈ 2.78
5. Activity E:
o te = (7 + 4*7.5 + 11) / 6 = (7 + 30 + 11) / 6 = 48 / 6 = 8
o σ² = [(11 - 7)/6]² = (4/6)² ≈ 0.44
6. Activity F:
o te = (9 + 4*9 + 9) / 6 = (9 + 36 + 9) / 6 = 54 / 6 = 9
o σ² = [(9 - 9)/6]² = 0
7. Activity G:
o te = (3 + 4*3.5 + 7) / 6 = (3 + 14 + 7) / 6 = 24 / 6 = 4
o σ² = [(7 - 3)/6]² = (4/6)² ≈ 0.44
8. Activity H:
o te = (5 + 4*5 + 5) / 6 = (5 + 20 + 5) / 6 = 30 / 6 = 5
o σ² = [(5 - 5)/6]² = 0
Now, let's prepare the activity schedule with Early Start (ES), Early Finish (EF), Late Start
(LS), and Late Finish (LF) times, as well as slack.
First, perform the forward pass to calculate ES and EF:
Start at time 0.
A: ES = 0, EF = 0 + 5 = 5
B: ES = 0, EF = 0 + 14 = 14
C: ES = EF of A = 5, EF = 5 + 9 = 14
D: ES = 5, EF = 5 + 15 = 20
E: ES = 5, EF = 5 + 8 = 13
F: ES = max(EF of B, EF of C) = max(14, 14) = 14, EF = 14 + 9 = 23
G: ES = EF of D = 20, EF = 20 + 4 = 24
H: ES = max(EF of E, F, G) = max(13, 23, 24) = 24, EF = 24 + 5 = 29
Now, perform the backward pass to calculate LS and LF:
H: LF = 29, LS = 29 - 5 = 24
G: LF = LS of H = 24, LS = 24 - 4 = 20
F: LF = 24, LS = 24 - 9 = 15
E: LF = 24, LS = 24 - 8 = 16
D: LF = LS of G = 20, LS = 20 - 15 = 5
C: LF = LS of F = 15, LS = 15 - 9 = 6
B: LF = LS of F = 15, LS = 15 - 14 = 1
A: LF = min(LS of C, D, E) = min(6, 5, 16) = 5, LS = 5 - 5 = 0
Now, calculate slack for each activity:
Slack = LS - ES or LF - EF
A: 0 - 0 = 0
B: 1 - 0 = 1
C: 6 - 5 = 1
D: 5 - 5 = 0
E: 16 - 5 = 11
F: 15 - 14 = 1
G: 20 - 20 = 0
H: 24 - 24 = 0
Here's the activity schedule:
Activit
te ES EF LS LF Slack
y
A 5 0 5 0 5 0
B 14 0 14 1 15 1
Activit
te ES EF LS LF Slack
y
C 9 5 14 6 15 1
D 15 5 20 5 20 0
E 8 5 13 16 24 11
F 9 14 23 15 24 1
G 4 20 24 20 24 0
H 5 24 29 24 29 0
(iii) Determining the Critical Path
The critical path is the longest path through the network with zero slack activities. From the
table, the activities with zero slack are: A, D, G, H.
So, the critical path is: A -> D -> G -> H
The total duration of the critical path is: 5 (A) + 15 (D) + 4 (G) + 5 (H) = 29 weeks
(iv) Probability of Finishing Within 30 Weeks
To find the probability that the project will be finished within 30 weeks, we'll use the critical
path's total expected duration and variance.
From the critical path (A -> D -> G -> H):
Total expected duration (T) = 5 + 15 + 4 + 5 = 29 weeks
Total variance (σ²_total) = σ²_A + σ²_D + σ²_G + σ²_H = 2.78 + 2.78 + 0.44 + 0 ≈
6.00
Standard deviation (σ) = √6 ≈ 2.45
Now, calculate the Z-score for the deadline of 30 weeks:
Z = (Deadline - T) / σ = (30 - 29) / 2.45 ≈ 0.408
Now, look up the probability corresponding to Z = 0.408 in the standard normal distribution
table.
From the table:
Z = 0.40 corresponds to ~0.6554
Z = 0.41 corresponds to ~0.6591
Interpolating for Z = 0.408:
Probability ≈ 0.6554 + (0.6591 - 0.6554)*(0.008/0.01) ≈ 0.6554 + 0.0037*0.8 ≈ 0.6554 +
0.003 ≈ 0.6584
So, the probability is approximately 65.84%.
Final Answers:
(i) The PERT network is represented by the following paths:
Start → A → C → F → H
Start → A → D → G → H
Start → A → E → H
Start → B → F → H
(ii) Activity Schedule:
Activit
te ES EF LS LF Slack
y
A 5 0 5 0 5 0
B 14 0 14 1 15 1
C 9 5 14 6 15 1
D 15 5 20 5 20 0
E 8 5 13 16 24 11
F 9 14 23 15 24 1
G 4 20 24 20 24 0
H 5 24 29 24 29 0
(iii) The critical path is: A → D → G → H with a total duration of 29 weeks.
(iv) The probability that the project will be finished within the 30-week deadline is
approximately 65.84%.
