Evidence that the climate is changing
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and
land. Measurements of the average temperature at the Earth’s surface show it has
risen by about 1.1°C since the pre-industrial period. Each of the last 3 decades have
been hotter than the previous one and the 7 warmest years on record have occurred
between 2015 and 2021. This change in temperature hasn’t been the same
everywhere. It has increased more over land than over the oceans and has been
more than twice as fast in the Arctic.
The United Kingdom (UK) is experiencing rising temperatures. The most recent
decade (2012 to 2021) has been on average 1.0°C warmer than the 1961 to 1990
average. All 10 of the warmest years in the UK have occurred since 2003. 2022 was
the UK’s hottest year on record, with an average year-round temperature above
10°C seen for the first time.
While the climate is warming, temperatures aren’t expected to rise every single year.
Natural fluctuations will still cause unusually cold years and seasons, but these
events will become less likely.
Along with warming at the Earth’s surface, many other changes in the climate are
occurring, such as:
warming oceans
melting polar ice and glaciers
rising sea levels
more extreme weather events
Warming oceans
It’s not only the temperature at the Earth’s surface that is rising. The temperature of
the oceans has been increasing too. This warming has been seen all the way down
to 2 km beneath the surface.
The chemistry of the oceans is also changing. They have absorbed about one third
of the total carbon dioxide emissions since 1980. This is causing the acidity of the
oceans to increase 10 times faster than at any point in the last 65 million years.
Melting polar ice and glaciers
Over the past few decades, the ice sheets (the great masses of land ice at the poles)
in Greenland and the Antarctic have shrunk. Glaciers have shrunk too, losing over
6000 giga-tonnes of ice over the last 30 years. Arctic Sea ice has decreased in area
since the 1970s, by about 40% in September and about 10% in March. There is no
significant trend in Antarctic Sea ice, likely due to other regional effects.
Rising sea levels
Melting land ice and the expansion of water in warming oceans have caused sea
levels to rise. Global sea level has risen by around 20 cm over the past century,
likely faster than at any point in the last 3,000 years. The rate of sea level rise
increased over the 20th century and sea levels will rise further this century. The
extent to which they rise will depend on future amounts of greenhouse gas
emissions.
More extreme weather events
More damaging extreme weather events are being seen around the world.
Heatwaves, heavy rainfall events and droughts are occurring more often, and they
are more severe. We expect these trends to continue as greenhouse gases
emissions and global temperature continue to rise.
Causes of climate change
Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (such as methane) in
the atmosphere enhance the ‘greenhouse effect’. More of the Sun’s energy is
trapped, causing the Earth to warm. Heating of the ocean accounts for over 90% of
the trapped energy. Scientists have known about this greenhouse effect since the
19th century.
The more greenhouse gases there are in the atmosphere, the warmer the Earth
becomes. While the plants and the oceans absorb about half of the carbon dioxide
from human activities, the rest goes into the atmosphere. Recent warming is being
driven by:
burning fossil fuels for energy
changes in land use and deforestation which reduces the numbers
of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide
agricultural production which releases greenhouse gasses from
energy use, from the number of livestock and the amount of fertiliser
applied to land
manufacture of cement, chemicals and metals, which releases
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
Natural influences on the climate, such as changes in the strength of the sun, or
volcanic eruptions, can affect global temperature. But they have not contributed
significantly to recent warming.
Past climate change
Ancient ice from the polar ice sheets is used to understand how temperatures have
changed over hundreds of thousands of years. In addition, air bubbles trapped in the
ice show that higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere correlate with
warmer global temperatures.
Ice cores also show that greenhouse gases have rapidly increased over the last 350
years to levels not seen for at least 800,000 years. Meanwhile, records from ocean
sediments show that current levels of carbon dioxide are higher than they have been
for at least 2 million years.
Natural fluctuations in climate
Over the last million years or so, the Earth’s climate has had a natural cycle of cold
glacial and warm inter-glacial periods. This cycle is mostly caused by gradual
changes in the Earth’s orbit over many thousands of years. These changes affect the
amount of energy that reaches the Earth. But they can be amplified by changes in
greenhouse gases from natural causes, such as volcanic eruptions.
We know that climate change has always occurred. But greenhouse gases produced
by human activity are altering this cycle beyond this natural variation.
Complex computer models show a clear human ‘fingerprint’ on recent global
warming. The latest Synthesis Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) states that it is unequivocal that human activities, principally through
emissions of greenhouse gases, have warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land, and
that widespread and rapid changes to the climate have occurred.
Climate models and future global warming
Looking at changes that have already happened on Earth can tell us a lot about the
future effects of climate change. But we can learn much more using mathematical
models of the climate.
Supercomputers (such as those at the Met Office) solve complex mathematical
equations based on well-established physical laws to model the behaviour of the
weather and climate.
These models cannot provide very specific forecasts of what the weather will be on a
given day more than a few days in the future. But they can predict large-scale
changes in global climate in the future.
Climate models can also show us the effects of changing our global greenhouse gas
emissions. For example, if we reduce emissions to net zero around or after 2050,
followed by negative carbon dioxide emissions, we could see average global
temperatures limited to 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial period by the end of this
century.
But if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, the average global
temperature could become 4.4°C warmer over the same period. Because these are
global averages, the temperature in regions such as the Arctic will likely be even
higher.
For more information, see the Met Office What is climate change page.
Impacts of climate change
We can already see the effects of climate change. They are projected to become
more severe and widespread as greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures
continue to rise. How big these impacts are depends on the degree to which we
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and on our ability to adapt to these changes.
Some of the effects of changes to our climate include:
risk to water supplies
localised flooding and flooding in coastal regions
damage to marine ecosystems and associated failure of fisheries
loss of biodiversity
heat stress, affecting human health and habitability
increased risk of wildfires
food insecurity as conditions for growing crops change and habitable
region of pests expands
Developed countries produce most greenhouse gas emissions. But we expect
developing countries to experience some of the most severe effects of climate
change. With fewer resources to adapt to these changes, the impact on people in
developing countries is likely to be higher.
For more details, see the Met Office Effects of climate change page.
The effects of climate change on the UK
The UK’s climate is changing already. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to
rise, climate models project that we will see:
warmer and wetter winters
hotter and drier summers
more frequent and intense weather extremes
The UK’s weather will continue to be variable, and we will still experience much of
the weather we do today. But it is likely that we will see more of the weather listed
above.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, then by 2070, UK winters are
forecast to be between 0.6 and 3.8°C warmer and between 3 to 39% wetter,
depending on the region, compared to our climate in 1990. This is because warmer
air can hold more water. We will likely experience heavier rains and more rain could
fall during winter storms.
Similarly, by 2070, UK summers are projected to be between 1.3 and 5.1°C warmer,
depending on the region. Higher summer temperatures will likely cause more severe
heatwaves. This will be a risk to public health, particularly vulnerable people.
In July 2022, UK temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time on record.
Temperatures remained above 20°C overnight and the highest daily minimum record
was also broken. The chance of the UK seeing 40°C days could be 10 times more
likely in the current climate than in the past. By 2070, regions in the south could have
average hottest days reaching 40°C. Warmer, drier summers are likely to increase
the risk of wildfires in the UK, as seen in the summer of 2022.
Climate change will also affect summer rainfall events in the UK. Flash flooding
events are more likely, especially in urban areas. By 2070, the UK is forecast to
experience flash floods twice as often as it did in 1990. Increased flooding will
negatively affect the environment, infrastructure, transport and water systems.
Please see the advice on staying safe and well:
in hot weather
in floods
