DSME 4020
Decision Modeling and Analytics
Course Introduction
Xiangyu Gao
2023-2024, Term 2
Instructor
• Name: GAO, Xiangyu
• Office: Room 909, Cheng Yu Tung Building
• E-mail: [email protected]
Teaching Assistant
• Name: LEE, Sandy
• Office: Room 943, Cheng Yu Tung Building
• E-mail: [email protected]
About the Course
• Lectures: Monday, 10:30-13:15, FYB(Wong Foo Yuan) UG01
• Lecture slides: available on Blackboard.
• Optional textbook: An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative
Approaches to Decision Making 16e, by David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney,
Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Lecture slides are largely based on material in this book
This book contains more details and explanations.
Course Assessment
• Participation: 5%
• Homework Assignments: 15 %
3 assignments
• Midterm test: 30%
• Final test (comprehensive): 50%
Lectures
• You need to bring a laptop computer to use Excel
• Lecture notes will be uploaded before the lecture.
Revised lecture notes and solved examples may be uploaded after
the lecture
There is a folder “Appendices and references” in the course contents.
I will put materials there from time to time for self-study. Currently
there is a file about building spreadsheet models.
Homework Assignment
• Detailed requirements can be found at the beginning of each
homework.
• For example, for 1st homework
a)When presenting the LP formulation, please feel free to make
assumptions when needed. In that case, please state the assumptions
clearly and follow them in formulating and solving the problems.
b)Submission format: “LastName_FirstName.pdf” for the
mathematical formulations and all your written answers.
“LastName_FirstName.xlsx” for the Excel data and Solver
configurations (use 1 worksheet per problem).
c) Please upload your files to “HW1 Submission” in the Blackboard.
Exams
• Midterm Exam: in class on Feb 27.
• Final Exam: in class on Apr 16
Tentative schedule
Week Date Topic
1 Jan 09 Mathematical programming
2 Jan 16 Mathematical programming
3 Jan 23 Mathematical programming
4 Jan 30 Mathematical programming
5 Feb 06 Mathematical programming
6 Feb 13 No class due to spring festeval
7 Feb 20 Mathematical programming
8 Feb 27 Midterm test
9 Mar 05 No class due to reading week
10 Mar 12 Project scheduling
11 Mar 19 Decision tree analysis
12 Mar 26 Simulation
13 Apr 02 Simulation
14 Apr 09 Summary and Review
15 Apr 16 Final test
Introduction
• Decision Modeling and Analytics
Scientific/quantitative approaches to decision making
• This body of knowledge is often referred to as
Decision science
Management science
Operations research
• It had its early roots in World War II and is
flourishing in business and industry
Explosion in computing power
Methodological developments
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Problem Solving and Decision Making
Decision making is the term
associated with the first five
steps of the problem-solving
process.
The decision is the choice of
the best alternative.
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Decision Making
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Qualitative vs Quantitative
Qualitative analysis:
• Based largely on the manager’s judgment and experience
• Includes the manager’s intuitive “feel” for the problem
• Is more of an art than a science
Quantitative analysis:
• Based on the quantitative facts or data associated with the problem
• Uses mathematical expressions to describe objectives, constraints,
and other relationships existing in the problem
• One or more quantitative methods may be used to make a
recommendation
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Quantitative analysis Steps
• Define the problem
• Collect data
• Develop models
• Solve models
• Report and communicate
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Develop (Mathematical) Models
• A good (or useful) model should represent the
decision-maker’s real problem accurately
• A good model should strike a balance between
being simple and being complex
Overly complex models are of little practical use, since
they are often too difficult to solve and incomprehensive
• “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
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Solve Models
• Solving models is typically the most difficult phase
from a mathematical standpoint
But this is not a math course. We will focus on using
software/computer packages to solve the model.
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Decision-making Tools and Models in this Course
• Optimization/mathematical programming
Linear programming
Integer programming
Nonlinear programming
• Project scheduling
• Decision tree analysis
• Simulation
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Prerequisite: DSME2030 Operations Management
• I assume you have basic knowledge of
linear programming and Excel Solver
decision tree analysis
inventory and queuing models
• I will briefly review them when needed
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