Topic 5 Part 2 [264 marks]

[1 mark]
1a.
Markscheme
4
p= 5
A1 N1

[1 mark]

Examiners report
While nearly every candidate answered part (a) correctly, many had trouble with the other parts of this question.

1b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
multiplying along the branches (M1)
e.g.
1
5
× 14 ,
12
40

adding products of probabilities of two mutually exclusive paths (M1)

e.g.
1
5
× 14 + 45 × 38 ,
1
20
+ 1240

P(B) = 1440
(= 207 ) A1 N2

[3 marks]

Examiners report
In part (b), many candidates did not multiply along the branches of the tree diagram to find the required values, and many did not
realize that there were two paths for P(B). There were also many candidates who understood what the question required, but then did
not know how to multiply fractions correctly, and these calculation errors led to an incorrect answer.

1c. [3 marks]
Markscheme
appropriate approach which must include
A′ (may be seen on diagram) (M1)
e.g.
P(A′ ∩B)
(do not accept
P(B)
P(A∩B)
P(B)
)
4
×3
P(A′ |B) = 5
7
8
(A1)
20

P(A′ |B) = 12
14
(= 67 ) A1 N2

[3 marks]
 Examiners report
In part (c), most candidates attempted to use a formula for conditional probability found in the information booklet, but very few
substituted the correct values.

2a. [3 marks]
Markscheme
(i)
p = 0.2 A1 N1
(ii)
q = 0.4 A1 N1
(iii)
r = 0.1 A1 N1
[3 marks]

Examiners report
As the definitions of p and q were not clear to candidates, both responses of p
= 0.2, q
= 0.4 and p
= 0.5, q
= 0.7 were accepted for full marks. However, finding r eluded many.

2b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
2
P(A|B′ ) = 3
A2 N2

Note: Award A1 for an unfinished answer such as

0.2
0.3
.

[2 marks]

Examiners report
Few candidates answered the conditional probability correctly. Many attempted to use the formula in the booklet without considering
the complement, and there was little evidence of the Venn diagram being utilized as a helpful aid.

2c. [1 mark]
Markscheme
valid reason R1
e.g.
2
3
≠ 0.5 ,
0.35 ≠ 0.3
thus, A and B are not independent AG N0
[1 mark]
 Examiners report
To show the events are not independent, many correctly reasoned that
0.3 ≠ 0.35 . A handful recognized that
P(A|B′ ) ≠ P(A) is an alternative approach that uses the answer in part (b). Some candidates do not know the difference between
independent and mutually exclusive.

3a. [4 marks]

Markscheme
(i)
7
24
A1 N1

(ii) evidence of multiplying along the branches (M1)

e.g.
2
3
× 58 ,
1
3
× 78

adding probabilities of two mutually exclusive paths (M1)

e.g.
( 13 × 78 ) + ( 23 × 38 ) ,
( 13 × 18 ) + ( 23 × 58 )
13
P(F) = 24
A1 N2

[4 marks]

Examiners report
Candidates generally handled some or all of parts (a) and (b) well. Errors included adding probabilities along branches and trying to
use the union formula from the information booklet.

[5 marks]
3b.
Markscheme
(i)
1
3
× 18 (A1)
1
24
A1
(ii) recognizing this is
P(E|F) (M1)
e.g.
7
24
÷ 13
24
168
312
7
(= 13
) A2 N3

[5 marks]

Examiners report
Candidates generally handled some or all of parts (a) and (b) well. Errors included adding probabilities along branches and trying to
use the union formula from the information booklet. On part (b)(ii), many candidates knew that they were supposed to use some type
of conditional probability but did not know how to find
P(E|F) . Many candidates made errors working with fractions. Some candidates who missed part (a)(ii) were able to earn follow-
through credit on part (b)(ii).
 [3 marks]
3c.
Markscheme

A2A1 N3

[3 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates had difficulty completing the probability distribution table. While the common error of finding the probability for
x = 3 as
2
9
was understandable as the candidate did not appreciate that there were two ways of paying three euros, it was disappointing that
these candidates often correctly found
P(X = 4) as
4
9
and did not note that the probabilities failed to sum to one. These candidates could not earn full follow-through marks on their
expected value calculation in part (d). Some candidates did use the probabilities summing to one with incorrect probabilities in part
(c); these candidates often earned full follow-through marks in part (d), as a majority of candidates knew the method for finding
expected value.

[2 marks]
3d.
Markscheme
correct substitution into
E(X) formula (M1)
e.g.
0 × 19 + 3 × 49 + 6 × 49 ,
12
9
+ 249

E(X) = 4 (euros) A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates had difficulty completing the probability distribution table. While the common error of finding the probability for
x = 3 as
2
9
was understandable as the candidate did not appreciate that there were two ways of paying three Euros, it was disappointing that
these candidates often correctly found
P(X) = 4 as
4
9
and did not note that the probabilities failed to sum to one. These candidates could not earn full follow-through marks on their
expected value calculation in part (d). Some candidates did use the probabilities summing to one with incorrect probabilities in part
(c); these candidates often earned full follow-through marks in part (d), as a majority of candidates knew the method for finding
expected value.

4a. [2 marks]
Markscheme
σ = 1.61 A2 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Surprisingly, this question was not answered well primarily due to incorrect GDC use and a lack of understanding of the terms
"median" and "interquartile range". Many candidates opted for an analytical approach in part (a) which always resulted in mistakes.
 [1 mark]
4b.
Markscheme
median
= 4.5 A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
Some candidates wrote the down the mean instead of the median in part (b).

[3 marks]
4c.
Markscheme
Q1 = 3 ,
Q3 = 5 (may be seen in a box plot) (A1)(A1)
IQR = 2 (accept any notation that suggests the interval 3 to 5) A1 N3
[3 marks]

Examiners report
Surprisingly, this question was not answered well primarily due to incorrect GDC use and a lack of understanding of the terms
"median" and "interquartile range".

[6 marks]
5a.
Markscheme
(i) valid approach (M1)
e.g.
np ,
5 × 15

E(X) = 1 A1 N2
(ii) evidence of appropriate approach involving binomial (M1)
e.g.
X ∼ B (5, 15 )

recognizing that Mark needs to answer 3 or more questions correctly (A1)

e.g.
P(X ≥ 3)
valid approach M1
e.g.
1 − P(X ≤ 2) ,
P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
P(pass) = 0.0579 A1 N3
[6 marks]

Examiners report
There was wide spectrum of success on this problem. Candidates could normally find E(X) using
n × p but many failed to recognize that the "experiment" was binomial or that for Mark to the pass the test, he needed to answer
either 3, 4 or 5 questions correctly.
 [8 marks]
5b.
Markscheme
(i) evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)
e.g.
0.67 + 0.05 + (a + 2b) + … + 0.04 = 1
some simplification that clearly leads to required answer
e.g.
0.76 + 4a + 2b = 1 A1
4a + 2b = 0.24 AG N0
(ii) correct substitution into the formula for expected value (A1)
e.g.
0(0.67) + 1(0.05) + … + 5(0.04)
some simplification (A1)
e.g.
0.05 + 2a + 4b + … + 5(0.04) = 1
correct equation A1
e.g.
13a + 5b = 0.75
evidence of solving (M1)
a = 0.05 ,
b = 0.02 A1A1 N4
[8 marks]

Examiners report
Part (b) was generally well done although there were a number of algebraic errors particularly in part (b) (ii), leading to incorrect
values of a and b. Again, appropriate use of the GDC here would have eliminated these errors.

[3 marks]
5c.
Markscheme
attempt to find probability Bill passes (M1)
e.g.
P(Y ≥ 3)
correct value 0.19 A1
Bill (is more likely to pass) A1 N0
[3 marks]

Examiners report
In (c), candidates had trouble with the command term, "find" and often just wrote down either "Mark" or "Bill".
 [4 marks]
6a.
Markscheme
∑ fx = 1(2) + 2(4) + … + 7(4) ,
∑ fx = 146 + 5x (seen anywhere) A1
evidence of substituting into mean
∑ fx
(M1)
∑f

correct equation A1
e.g.
146+5x
34+x
= 4.5 ,
146 + 5x = 4.5(34 + x)
x = 14 A1 N2
[4 marks]

Examiners report
Surprisingly, this question was not well done by many candidates. A good number of candidates understood the importance of the
frequencies in calculating mean. Some neglected to sum the frequencies for the denominator, which often led to a negative value for a
frequency. Unfortunately, candidates did not appreciate the unreasonableness of this result.

[2 marks]
6b.
Markscheme
σ = 1.54 A2 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Surprisingly, this question was not well done by many candidates. A good number of candidates understood the importance of the
frequencies in calculating mean. Some neglected to sum the frequencies for the denominator, which often led to a negative value for a
frequency. Unfortunately, candidates did not appreciate the unreasonableness of this result. In part (b), many candidates could not
find the standard deviation in their GDC, often trying to calculate it by hand with no success. Further, many could not distinguish
between the sample and the population standard deviation given in the GDC.

[2 marks]
7a.
Markscheme
evidence of recognizing binomial probability (may be seen in (b) or (c)) (M1)
e.g. probability
7
= ( ) (0.9)4 (0.1)3 ,
4
X ∼ B(7,0.9) , complementary probabilities
probability
= 0.0230 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Parts of this question were handled very well by a great many candidates. Most were able to recognize the binomial condition and
had little difficulty with part (a). However, more than a few reported the answer as 0.23, thus incurring the accuracy penalty.
 [2 marks]
7b.
Markscheme
correct expression A1A1 N2
e.g.
7
( ) p4 (1 − p)3 ,
4
35p4 (1 − p)3
Note: Award A1 for binomial coefficient (accept
7
( ) ) , A1 for
3
p4 (1 − p)3 .
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Those candidates that were successful in part (a) could easily write the required expression for part (b).

[3 marks]
7c.
Markscheme
evidence of attempting to solve their equation (M1)
e.g.
7
( ) p4 (1 − p)3 = 0.15 , sketch
4
p = 0.356,
0.770 A1A1 N3
[3 marks]

Examiners report
In part (c), many candidates set up the question correctly or set their expression from (b) equal to 0.15, however few candidates
considered the GDC as a method to solve the equation. Rather, those who attempted usually tried to expand the polynomial, and still
did not use the GDC to solve this equation. A graphical approach to the solution would reveal that there are two solutions for p, but
few caught this subtlety.

[2 marks]
8a.
Markscheme
evidence of appropriate approach (M1)
e.g.
1 − 0.85 , diagram showing values in a normal curve
P(w ≥ 82) = 0.15 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
This question was quite accessible to those candidates in centres where this topic is given the attention that it deserves. Most
candidates handled part (a) well using the basic properties of a normal distribution.
 [4 marks]
8b.
Markscheme
(i)
z = −1.64 A1 N1
(ii) evidence of appropriate approach (M1)
e.g.
x−μ
−1.64 = σ
,
68−76.6
σ

correct substitution A1
e.g.
68−76.6
−1.64 = σ

σ = 5.23 A1 N1
[4 marks]

Examiners report
In part (b) (i), candidates often confused the z-score with the area in the table which led to a standard deviation that was less than zero
in part (b) (ii). At this point, candidates “fudged” results in order to continue with the remaining parts of the question. In (b) (ii), the
“hence” command was used expecting candidates to use the results of (b) (i) to find a standard deviation of 4.86. Unfortunately, many
decided to use their answers and the information from part (a) resulting in quite a different standard deviation of 5.79. Recognizing
the inconsistency in the question, full marks were awarded for this approach, as well as full follow-through in subsequent parts of the
question.

[5 marks]
8c.
Markscheme
(i)
68.8 ≤ weight ≤ 84.4 A1A1A1 N3
Note: Award A1 for 68.8, A1 for 84.4, A1 for giving answer as an interval.
(ii) evidence of appropriate approach (M1)
e.g.
P(−1.5 ≤ z ≤ 1.5) ,
P(68.76 < y < 84.44)
P(qualify) = 0.866 A1 N2
[5 marks]

Examiners report
Candidates could obtain full marks easily in part (c) with little understanding of a normal distribution but they often confused z-scores
with data values, adding and subtracting 1.5 from the mean of 76.
 [4 marks]
8d.
Markscheme
recognizing conditional probability (M1)
e.g.
P(A∩B)
P(A|B) = P(B)

P(woman and qualify) = 0.25 × 0.7 (A1)

0.25×0.7
P(woman|qualify) = 0.866
A1

P(woman|qualify) = 0.202 A1
[4 marks]

Examiners report
In part (d), few recognized the conditional nature of the question and only determined the probability that a woman qualifies and
takes part in the tournament.

[4 marks]
9a.
Markscheme
(a) (i) evidence of appropriate approach (M1)
e.g.
9 + 25 + 35 ,
34 + 35
p = 69 A1 N2
(ii) evidence of valid approach (M1)
e.g.
109− their value of p,
120 − (9 + 25 + 35 + 11)
q = 40 A1 N2
[4 marks]

Examiners report
The majority of candidates had little trouble finding the missing values in the frequency distribution table.

[2 marks]
9b.
Markscheme
evidence of appropriate approach (M1)
e.g. substituting into
∑ fx
n
, division by 120
mean
= 3.16 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Many did not seem comfortable calculating the mean and standard deviation using their GDCs.
The correct mean was often found without the use of the statistical functions on the graphing calculator, but a large number of
candidates were unable to find the standard deviation.
 [1 mark]
9c.
Markscheme
1.09 A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
Many did not seem comfortable calculating the mean and standard deviation using their GDCs.
The correct mean was often found without the use of the statistical functions on the graphing calculator, but a large number of
candidates were unable to find the standard deviation.

[2 marks]
10a.
Markscheme
symmetry of normal curve (M1)
e.g.
P(X < 25) = 0.5
P(X > 27) = 0.2 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
This question proved challenging for many candidates. A surprising number did not use the symmetry of the normal curve to find the
probability required in (a). While many students were able to set up a standardized equation in (b), far fewer were able to use the
complement to find the correct z-score. Others used 0.8 as the z-score. A common confusion when approaching parts (a) and (b) was
whether to use a probability or a z-score. Additionally, many candidates seemed unsure of appropriate notation on this problem which
would have allowed them to better demonstrate their method.
 [5 marks]
10b.
Markscheme
METHOD 1
finding standardized value (A1)
e.g.
27−25
σ

evidence of complement (M1)

e.g.
1−p ,
P(X < 27) , 0.8
finding z-score (A1)
e.g.
z = 0.84 …
attempt to set up equation involving the standardized value M1
e.g.
27−25
0.84 = σ
,
X−μ
0.84 = σ

σ = 2.38 A1 N3
METHOD 2
set up using normal CDF function and probability (M1)
e.g.
P(25 < X < 27) = 0.3 ,
P(X < 27) = 0.8
correct equation A2
e.g.
P(25 < X < 27) = 0.3 ,
P(X > 27) = 0.2
attempt to solve the equation using GDC (M1)
e.g. solver, graph, trial and error (more than two trials must be shown)
σ = 2.38 A1 N3
[5 marks]

Examiners report
This question proved challenging for many candidates. A surprising number did not use the symmetry of the normal curve to find the
probability required in (a). While many students were able to set up a standardized equation in (b), far fewer were able to use the
complement to find the correct z-score. Others used 0.8 as the z-score. A common confusion when approaching parts (a) and (b) was
whether to use a probability or a z-score. Additionally, many candidates seemed unsure of appropriate notation on this problem which
would have allowed them to better demonstrate their method.

[3 marks]
11a.
Markscheme
three correct pairs A1A1A1 N3
e.g. (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2) , R2G4, R3G3, R4G2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
All but the weakest candidates managed to score full marks for parts (a) and (b). An occasional error in part (a) was including
additional pair(s) or listing (3, 3) twice.
 [3 marks]
11b.
Markscheme
p = 161 ,
q = 162 ,
r = 162 A1A1A1 N3

[3 marks]

Examiners report
All but the weakest candidates managed to score full marks for parts (a) and (b).

[6 marks]
11c.
Markscheme
let X be the number of times the sum of the dice is 5
evidence of valid approach (M1)
e.g.
X ∼ B(n, p) , tree diagram, 5 sets of outcomes produce a win
one correct parameter (A1)
e.g.
n=4,
p = 0.25 ,
q = 0.75
Fred wins prize is
P(X ≥ 3) (A1)
appropriate approach to find probability M1
e.g. complement, summing probabilities, using a CDF function
correct substitution (A1)
e.g.
1 − 0.949 … ,
1 − 243
256
,
0.046875 + 0.00390625 ,
12 1
256
+ 256

probability of winning = 0.0508

13
( 256 ) A1 N3

[6 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates found part (c) challenging, as they failed to recognize the binomial probability. Successful candidates generally used
either the binomial CDF function or the sum of two binomial probabilities. Some used approaches like multiplying probabilities or
tree diagrams, but these were less successful.

[1 mark]
12a.

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)(= 0.6x)

 Examiners report
This question was well done by most candidates.

[4 marks]
12b.
Markscheme
(i) evidence of using
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) (M1)
correct substitution A1
e.g.
0.8 = 0.6 + x − 0.6x ,
0.2 = 0.4x
x = 0.5 A1 N2
(ii)
P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 A1 N1
[4 marks]

Examiners report
This question was well done by most candidates. When errors were made, candidates confused the terms "independent" and
"mutually exclusive" and did not subtract the intersection when finding
P(A ∪ B) .

[1 mark]
12c.
Markscheme
valid reason, with reference to
P(A ∩ B) R1 N1
e.g.
P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0
[1 mark]

Examiners report
Candidates should also be aware of the command term "hence" used in part (c) where they were expected to provide a reason that
involved
P(A ∩ B) from their work in part (b). It seemed that many turned to the formula in the booklet instead of considering the conceptual
meaning of the term.

[1 mark]
13a.
Markscheme
median
m = 32 A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
This question was answered successfully by a majority of candidates. A common error was to use values of 20 and 60 for the lower
and upper quartiles. Some were careless when reading the graph scale and wrote incorrect answers as a result.
 [3 marks]
13b.
Markscheme
lower quartile
Q1 = 22 , upper quartile
Q3 = 40 (A1)(A1)
interquartile range = 18 A1 N3
[3 marks]

Examiners report
This question was answered successfully by a majority of candidates. A common error was to use values of 20 and 60 for the lower
and upper quartiles. Some were careless when reading the graph scale and wrote incorrect answers as a result.

[2 marks]
13c.
Markscheme

A1A1 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
This question was answered successfully by a majority of candidates. A common error was to use values of 20 and 60 for the lower
and upper quartiles. Some were careless when reading the graph scale and wrote incorrect answers as a result.

[2 marks]
14a.
Markscheme

A1A1 N2

Note: Award A1 for vertical line to right of mean, A1 for shading to right of their vertical line.

Examiners report
Most candidates did very well on part (a), shading the area under the normal curve.
 [2 marks]
14b.
Markscheme
evidence of recognizing symmetry (M1)
e.g.
105 is one standard deviation above the mean so
d is one standard deviation below the mean, shading the corresponding part,
105 − 100 = 100 − d
d = 95 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Not all candidates realised that the problem could be solved by only using the symmetry of the normal distribution curve and the
information given. Some of them saw the need to use tables and others just left it blank.
Candidates were only moderately successful on parts (b) and (c), which required understanding of the symmetry of the curve. Many
candidates resorted to formulae or tables instead of reasoning through the question.

[2 marks]
14c.
Markscheme
evidence of using complement (M1)
e.g.
1 − 0.32 ,
1−p
P(d < X < 105) = 0.68 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Not all candidates realised that the problem could be solved by only using the symmetry of the normal distribution curve and the
information given. Some of them saw the need to use tables and others just left it blank.
Candidates were only moderately successful on parts (b) and (c), which required understanding of the symmetry of the curve. Many
candidates resorted to formulae or tables instead of reasoning through the question.

[3 marks]
15a.
Markscheme
(i) evidence of substituting into
n(A ∪ B) = n(A) + n(B) − n(A ∩ B) (M1)
e.g.
75 + 55 − 100 , Venn diagram
30 A1 N2
(ii) 45 A1 N1
[3 marks]

Examiners report
Overall, this question was very well done. There were some problems with the calculation of conditional probability, where a
considerable amount of candidates tried to use a formula instead of using its concept and analysing the problem. It is the kind of
question where it can be seen if the concept is not clear to candidates.
 [4 marks]
15b.
Markscheme
(i) METHOD 1
evidence of using complement, Venn diagram (M1)
e.g.
1−p ,
100 − 30
70
100
7
(= 10
) A1 N2

METHOD 2
attempt to find P(only one sport) , Venn diagram (M1)
e.g.
25 45
100
+ 100
70
100
7
(= 10
) A1 N2
(ii)
45
70
9
(= 14
) A2 N2

[4 marks]

Examiners report
Overall, this question was very well done. There were some problems with the calculation of conditional probability, where a
considerable amount of candidates tried to use a formula instead of using its concept and analysing the problem. It is the kind of
question where it can be seen if the concept is not clear to candidates.

[2 marks]
15c.
Markscheme
valid reason in words or symbols (R1)
e.g.
P(A ∩ B) = 0 if mutually exclusive,
P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 if not mutually exclusive
correct statement in words or symbols A1 N2
e.g.
P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 ,
P(A ∪ B) ≠ P(A) + P(B) ,
P(A) + P(B) > 1 , some students play both sports, sets intersect
[2 marks]

Examiners report
In part (c), candidates were generally able to explain in words why events were mutually exclusive, though many gave the wrong
values for P(A) and P(B).
 [3 marks]
15d.
Markscheme
valid reason for independence (R1)
e.g.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) ,
P(B|A) = P(B)
correct substitution A1A1 N3
e.g.
30 75 55
100
≠ 100 × 100 ,
30 75
55
≠ 100

[3 marks]

Examiners report
There was a great amount of confusion between the concepts of independent and mutually exclusive events. In part (d), the
explanations often referred to mutually exclusive events.
It was evident that candidates need more practice with questions like (c) and (d).
Some students equated probabilities and number of elements, giving probabilities greater than 1.

[1 mark]
16a.
Markscheme
E(X) = 2 A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
Most candidates were able to find the mean by applying various methods. Although many recognised binomial probability, fewer
were able to use the GDC effectively.

[2 marks]
16b.
Markscheme
evidence of appropriate approach involving binomial (M1)
e.g.
10
( ) (0.2)3 ,
3
(0.2)3 (0.8)7 ,
X ∼ B(10,0.2)
P(X = 3) = 0.201 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Most candidates were able to find the mean by applying various methods. Although many recognised binomial probability, fewer
were able to use the GDC effectively.
 [3 marks]
16c.
Markscheme
METHOD 1
P(X ≤ 3) = 0.10737 + 0.26844 + 0.30199 + 0.20133
(= 0.87912 …) (A1)
evidence of using the complement (seen anywhere) (M1)
e.g.
1− any probability ,
P(X > 3) = 1 − P(X ≤ 3)
P(X > 3) = 0.121 A1 N2
METHOD 2
recognizing that
P(X > 3) = P(X ≥ 4) (M1)
e.g. summing probabilities from
X = 4 to
X = 10
correct expression or values (A1)
e.g.
10 10
∑( )(0.2)10−r (0.8)r
r=4 r
0.08808 + 0.02642 + 0.005505 + 0.000786 + 0.0000737 + 0.000004 + 0.0000001
P(X > 3) = 0.121 A1 N2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
Part (c) was problematic in some cases but most candidates recognized that either a sum of probabilities or the complement was
required. Many misinterpreted "more than three" as inclusive of three, and so obtained incorrect answers. When adding individual
probabilities, some candidates used three or fewer significant figures, which resulted in an incorrect final answer due to premature
rounding.
 [7 marks]
17.
Markscheme
METHOD 1
for independence
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (R1)
expression for
P(A ∩ B) , indicating
P(B) = 2P(A) (A1)
e.g.
P(A) × 2P(A) ,
x × 2x
substituting into
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) (M1)
correct substitution A1
e.g.
0.52 = x + 2x − 2x2 ,
0.52 = P(A) + 2P(A) − 2P(A)P(A)
correct solutions to the equation (A2)
e.g.
0.2,
1.3 (accept the single answer
0.2)
P(B) = 0.4 A1 N6
[7 marks]
METHOD 2
for independence
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (R1)
expression for
P(A ∩ B) , indicating
P(A) = 12 P(B) (A1)

e.g.
P(B) × 12 P(B) ,
x × 12 x

substituting into
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) (M1)
correct substitution A1
e.g.
0.52 = 0.5x + x − 0.5x2 ,
0.52 = 0.5P(B) + P(B) − 0.5P(B)P(B)
correct solutions to the equation (A2)
e.g. 0.4, 2.6 (accept the single answer 0.4)
P(B) = 0.4 (accept
x = 0.4 if x set up as
P(B) ) A1 N6
[7 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates confused the concept of independence of events with mutual exclusivity, mistakenly trying to use the formula
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) . Those who did recognize that
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) were often able to find the correct equation, but many were unable to use their GDC to solve it. A few
provided two answers without discarding the value greater than one.
 [1 mark]
18a.
Markscheme
1
P(A) = 11
A1 N1

[1 mark]

Examiners report
Most candidates answered part (a) correctly.

[2 marks]
18b.
Markscheme
2
P(B|A) = 10
A2 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
Few candidates used the concept of "B given A" to simply "write down" the answer of
2
10
. Instead, most reached for the formula in the booklet, with which few were successful.

[3 marks]
18c.
Markscheme
recognising that
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B|A) (M1)
correct values (A1)
e.g.
1
P(A ∩ B) = 11
× 102
2
P(A ∩ B) = 110
A1 N3

[3 marks]

Examiners report
Few also made the connection that part (c) could be answered using both previous answers. Many found
P(A ∩ B) correctly even when answering part (b) incorrectly, although some candidates did not decrease the denominator for the
second event.

[2 marks]
19a.
Markscheme
evidence of attempt to find
P(X ≤ 475) (M1)
e.g.
P(Z ≤ 1.25)
P(X ≤ 475) = 0.894 A1 N2
[2 marks]
 Examiners report
It remains very clear that some centres still do not give appropriate attention to the normal distribution. This is a major cause for
concern. Most candidates had been taught the topic but many had difficulty understanding the difference between
z,
F(z),
a and
x . Very little working was shown which demonstrated understanding. Although the GDC was used extensively, candidates often
worked with the wrong tail and did not write their answers correct to 3 significant figures.

[4 marks]
19b.
Markscheme
evidence of using the complement (M1)
e.g. 0.73,
1−p
z = 0.6128 (A1)
setting up equation (M1)
e.g.
a−450
20
= 0.6128

a = 462 A1 N3
[4 marks]

Examiners report
It remains very clear that some centres still do not give appropriate attention to the normal distribution. This is a major cause for
concern. Most candidates had been taught the topic but many had difficulty understanding the difference between
z,
F(z),
a and
x . Very little working was shown which demonstrated understanding. Although the GDC was used extensively, candidates often
worked with the wrong tail and did not write their answers correct to 3 significant figures.
Many candidates had trouble with part (b), a majority never found the complement, instead using their GDCs to calculate the result,
which many times was finding a for
P(X ⩽ a) = 0.27 instead of for
P(X ⩾ a) = 0.27 . Many others substituted the values of
0.27 or
0.73 into the equation, instead of the
z-scores.

[3 marks]
20a.
Markscheme
evidence of using mid-interval values (5, 15, 25, 35, 50, 67.5, 87.5) (M1)
σ = 19.8 (cm) A2 N3
[3 marks]

Examiners report
Part (a) defeated the vast majority of candidates who clearly had not been taught data entry. Some schools had attempted to teach how
to use a formula rather than the GDC to find the standard deviation and their students invariably used this formula incorrectly. Use of
the GDC was not only expected but should be emphasized as stated in the syllabus.
 [6 marks]
20b.
Markscheme
(i)
Q1 = 15 ,
Q3 = 40 (A1)(A1)
IQR = 25 (accept any notation that suggests the interval 15 to 40) A1 N3
(ii) METHOD 1
60% have a length less than k (A1)
0.6 × 200 = 120 (A1)
k = 30 (cm) A1 N2
METHOD 2
0.4 × 200 = 80 (A1)
200 − 80 = 120 (A1)
k = 30 (cm) A1 N2
[6 marks]

Examiners report
Part (b) revealed poor understanding of cumulative frequency and the IQR was often reported as an interval.

20c. [2 marks]
Markscheme
l < 20 cm ⇒ 70 fish (M1)
70
P(small) = 200
(= 0.35) A1 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
This was generally answered well although a number of candidates had difficulty with using the formula for expected value.

[2 marks]
20d.
Markscheme

A1A1 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
This was generally answered well although a number of candidates had difficulty with using the formula for expected value.
20e. [2 marks]

Markscheme
correct substitution (of their p values) into formula for
E(X) (A1)
e.g.
4 × 0.35 + 10 × 0.565 + 12 × 0.085
E(X) = 8.07 (accept
$8.07) A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
This was generally answered well although a number of candidates had difficulty with using the formula for expected value.

21a. [2 marks]

Markscheme

A2 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
Most candidates completed parts (a), (b) and (c) successfully.

[2 marks]
21b.
Markscheme
1
P(12) = 9
,
3
P(13) = 9
,
3
P(14) = 9
,
2
P(15) = 9
A2 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
Most candidates completed part (b) successfully.

[3 marks]
21c.
Markscheme
correct substitution into formula for
E(X) A1
e.g.
E(S) = 12 × 19 + 13 × 39 + 14 × 39 + 15 × 29
123
E(S) = 9
A2 N2

[3 marks]
 Examiners report
Many found the expected value correctly, while some showed difficulty with the arithmetic.

[3 marks]
21d.
Markscheme
METHOD 1
correct expression for expected gain E(A) for 1 game (A1)
e.g.
4
9
× 50 − 59 × 30
50
E(A) = 9

amount at end = expected gain for 1 game

×36 (M1)
= 200 (dollars) A1 N2
METHOD 2
attempt to find expected number of wins and losses (M1)
e.g.
4
9
× 36 ,
5
9
× 36

attempt to find expected gain E(G) (M1)

e.g.
16 × 50 − 30 × 20
E(G) = 200 (dollars) A1 N2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
This was often left blank or only superficially attempted. Some found the expected value
50
9
but did not answer the question about the amount of money.

22a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
18 A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
Most candidates were able to find the values for the median, lower quartile, and point b. A large majority answered this question
correctly.

22b. [4 marks]

Markscheme
(i) 10 A2 N2
(ii) 44 A2 N2
[4 marks]
 Examiners report
Most candidates were able to find the values for the median, lower quartile, and point b. A large majority answered this question
correctly.

[2 marks]
23a.
Markscheme
A ∼ N(46, 102 )
B ∼ N(μ, 122 )
P(A > 60) = 0.0808 A2 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
A significant number of students clearly understood what was asked in part (a) and used the GDC to find the result.

23b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
correct approach (A1)
e.g.
P (Z < )
60−μ
12
= 0.85 , sketch
60−μ
12
= 1.036 … (A1)

μ = 47.6 A1 N2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
In part (b), many candidates set the standardized formula equal to the probability (
0.85), instead of using the corresponding z-score. Other candidates used the solver on their GDC with the inverse norm function.

23c. [3 marks]
Markscheme
(i) route A A1 N1
(ii) METHOD 1
P(A < 60) = 1 − 0.0808 = 0.9192 A1
valid reason R1
e.g. probability of A getting there on time is greater than probability of B
0.9192 > 0.85 N2
METHOD 2
P(B > 60) = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15 A1
valid reason R1
e.g. probability of A getting there late is less than probability of B
0.0808 < 0.15 N2
[3 marks]
 Examiners report
A common incorrect approach in part (c) was to attempt to use the means and standard deviations for justification, although many
candidates successfully considered probabilities.

23d. [5 marks]

Markscheme
(i) let X be the number of days when the van arrives before 07:00
P(X = 5) = (0.85)5 (A1)
= 0.444 A1 N2
(ii) METHOD 1
evidence of adding correct probabilities (M1)
e.g.
P(X ≥ 3) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
correct values
0.1382 + 0.3915 + 0.4437 (A1)
P(X ≥ 3) = 0.973 A1 N3
METHOD 2
evidence of using the complement (M1)
e.g.
P(X ≥ 3) = 1 − P(X ≤ 2) ,
1−p
correct values
1 − 0.02661 (A1)
P(X ≥ 3) = 0.973 A1 N3
[5 marks]

Examiners report
A pleasing number of candidates recognized the binomial probability and made progress on part (d).

24a. [3 marks]

Markscheme
36 outcomes (seen anywhere, even in denominator) (A1)
valid approach of listing ways to get sum of 5, showing at least two pairs (M1)
e.g. (1, 4)(2, 3), (1, 4)(4, 1), (1, 4)(4, 1), (2, 3)(3, 2) , lattice diagram
P(prize) = 364
(= 19 ) A1 N3

[3 marks]

Examiners report
While many candidates were successful at part (a), far fewer recognized the binomial distribution in the second part of the problem.
 [2 marks]
24b.
Markscheme
recognizing binomial probability (M1)
e.g.
B (8, 19 ) , binomial pdf,
8
( ) ( 19 ) ( 89 )
3 5

3
P(3 prizes) = 0.0426 A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
While many candidates were successful at part (a), far fewer recognized the binomial distribution in the second part of the problem.
Those who did not obtain the correct answer at part (a) often scored partial credit by either drawing a table to represent the sample
space or by noting relevant pairs.

25a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
evidence of binomial distribution (seen anywhere) (M1)
e.g.
X ∼ B (3, 14 )

mean = 34 (
= 0.75) A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates did not recognize the binomial nature of this question, suggesting an overall lack of preparation with this topic.
Many used 7 days instead of 3 but could still earn marks in follow-through if working was shown. Those who could use their GDC
effectively often answered correctly.

[2 marks]
25b.
Markscheme
3
P(X = 2) = ( ) ( 14 ) ( 34 )
2
(A1)
2
P(X = 2) = 0.141
(= 649 ) A1 N2

[2 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates did not recognize the binomial nature of this question, suggesting an overall lack of preparation with this topic.
Many used 7 days instead of 3 but could still earn marks in follow-through if working was shown. Those who could use their GDC
effectively often answered correctly.
25c. [3 marks]

Markscheme
evidence of appropriate approach M1
e.g. complement,
1 − P(X = 0) , adding probabilities
P(X = 0) = (0.75)3
(= 0.422, 27
64
) (A1)

P(X ≥ 1) = 0.578
(= 37
64
) A1 N2

[3 marks]

Examiners report
Many candidates did not recognize the binomial nature of this question, suggesting an overall lack of preparation with this topic.
Many used 7 days instead of 3 but could still earn marks in follow-through if working was shown. Those who could use their GDC
effectively often answered correctly, although in part (c) some candidates misinterpreted the meaning of “at least one” and found
either
P(X ≤ 1) or
1 − P(X ≤ 1) .

26a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
min value of r is
−1, max value of r is 1 A1A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

26b. [1 mark]
Markscheme
C A1 N1
[1 mark]

Examiners report
[N/A]

[2 marks]
26c.
Markscheme
linear, strong negative A1A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
27a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
(i) new mean is
20 + 10 = 30 A1 N1
(ii) new sd is 6 A1 N1
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

[3 marks]
27b.
Markscheme
(i) new mean is
20 × 10 = 200 A1 N1
(ii) METHOD 1
variance is 36 A1
new variance is
36 × 100 = 3600 A1 N2
METHOD 2
new sd is 60 A1
new variance is
602 = 3600 A1 N2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

28a. [6 marks]

Markscheme
(i) number of ways of getting
X = 6 is 5 A1
5
P(X = 6) = 36
A1 N2

(ii) number of ways of getting

X > 6 is 21 A1
P(X > 6) = 21
36
(= 127 ) A1 N2

(iii)
6
P(X = 7|X > 6) = 21
(= 27 ) A2 N2

[6 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
28b. [8 marks]

Markscheme
attempt to find
P(X < 6) M1
e.g.
1 − 365 − 21
36
10
P(X < 6) = 36
A1

fair game if
E(W) = 0 (may be seen anywhere) R1
attempt to substitute into
E(X) formula M1
e.g.
3 ( 365 ) + 1 ( 21
36
) − k ( 10
36
)

correct substitution into

E(W) = 0 A1
e.g.
3 ( 365 ) + 1 ( 21
36
) − k ( 10
36
)=0

work towards solving M1

e.g.
15 + 21 − 10k = 0
36 = 10k A1
36
k= 10
(= 3.6) A1 N4

[8 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

[3 marks]
29a.
Markscheme

A1A1A1 N3

Note: Award A1 for 450 , A1 for a to the right of the mean, A1 for area 0.27 .
[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
29b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
valid approach M1
e.g.
P(X < a) = 1 − P(X > a) , 0.73
a = 462.256 … A1
a = 462 A1 N3
[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

[4 marks]
30a.
Markscheme
(i) recognizing binomial with
n = 600 ,
p = 0.4 M1
E(X) = 240 A1 N2
(ii) correct substitution into formula for variance or standard deviation A1
e.g. 144,
−−−−−−−−−−−−
√600 × 0.4 × 0.6
sd = 12 A1 N1
[4 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

30b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
attempt to find range of values M1
e.g.
240 ± 12
228 < X < 252
evidence of correct approach A1
e.g.
P(X ≤ 251) − P(X ≤ 228)
P(228 < X < 252) = 0.662 A1 N2
[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
31a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
y = 10.7x + 121 A1A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

[2 marks]
31b.
Markscheme
(i) additional cost per box (unit cost) A1 N1
(ii) fixed costs A1 N1
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

31c. [2 marks]
Markscheme
attempt to substitute into regression equation M1
e.g.
y = 10.7 × 60 + 121 ,
y = 760.12 …
cost = $760 (accept
$763 from 3 s.f. values) A1 N2
[2 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

31d. [3 marks]

Markscheme
setting up inequality (accept equation) M1
e.g.
19.99x > 10.7x + 121
x > 12.94 … A1
13 boxes (accept 14 from
x > 13.02 , using 3 s.f. values) A1 N2
Note: Exception to the FT rule: if working shown, award the final A1 for a correct integer solution for their value of x.
[3 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]
 [4 marks]
31e.
Markscheme
(i) this would be extrapolation, not appropriate R1R1 N2
(ii) this regression line cannot predict x from y, not appropriate R1R1 N2
[4 marks]

Examiners report
[N/A]

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