FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

DEPARTMENT OF MINING ENGINEERING

PROGRAMME: BACHELOR OF GEOLOGICAL ENGINEERING (HONS)

COURSE NAME: ENGINEERING GEOLOGY

COURSE CODE: MEN-EGO-511

ASSIGNMENT 1

SUBMITTED BY: MPHATSO CHIZOMA (BGEN/18/SS/056)

SUBMITTED TO: MR. H.K. NANGULAMA (MSc., BSc. Civil Eng.)

DUE DATE: 22nd FEBRUARY 2023

NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

(QUANTIFICATION OF GEOLOGIC HAZARD AND RISK)
INTRODUCTION
Natural hazards are naturally occurring processes that pose a threat to human life and structures
(Keller, 2012). A natural hazard may also be defined as the probability that an event becomes
so intense within the frames of space and time that it produces significant damage to life and
property (Mora, 2009). The occurrence of natural disasters on a world scale is increasing and
some quantitative criteria used to declare an event as a natural disaster is that 10 or more people
are killed, and more than 100 people are affected (Keller, 2012). Approximately the worldwide
annual loss of life from natural disasters is 150,000, the financial losses hit as high as $50
billion per year. This paper schematically discusses natural hazard assessment and risk
management with more focus put on the quantification of geologic hazard and risk.

CLASSIFICATION OF NATURAL HAZARDS

Natural hazards derive from the damaging potential or combination of three aspects of earth
processes first are Internal geodynamics which come with hazards such as earthquakes and
volcanic eruption, second hydro-meteorology with hazards as cyclones and rainfall and thirdly
external geodynamics which include landslides, intensive erosion and torrential debris flow
(Mora, 2009). Below is a schematic representation of the three dynamics of natural hazard
classification as described above.

Figure 1 Schematic classification of natural hazards according to their origin.

An adverse geologic condition capable of causing damage or loss of property or life is set apart
as a geological hazard, geologic processes are a part of how nature is built; they become hazards
when humans get in their way. Some of the well notable geologic hazards include earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions and landslides. The table below summarises some of the common geologic
hazards.

Table 1: Some examples of geological hazards

Geologic hazard Description (Keller, 2012) (Hencher, 2012) (Price, 2009)

Earthquakes  Characterised by rapid ground shaking caused by release of
stored energy in rocks following elastic rebound theory
 Compared with other earthquakes in terms of magnitude
and ground motion. Common in areas with active fault
movement. Transform plate boundaries
 Earthquakes claim thousands of life every year, recent
example of th turkey earthquake that has so far claimed
over 40000 lives
Volcanic eruptions  Volcanic eruption is the release of molten rock called
magma onto the surface of the earth from the mantle due to
plate movement.
 Over 1500 active volcanoes are available on earth 400 of
which erupted in the 20th century. When humans exist in
the path of an active volcano the results can be catastrophic
because hot molten rock will destroy property and claim
lives.
 Common in subduction and divergent plate zones.
Landslides  Rapid movement of soils or rock material down a slope,
usually linked to other hazards such as earthquakes and
volcanoes.
 Landslides also claim lots of lives especially in urban areas,
some common land slide movements include, rock fall,
debris flow, rock slide and ground subsidence.
 More than 3000 fatal landslides occur every year world
wide
Figure 2: Showing the damage that earthquakes and volcanoes can cause

NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT

It is very important to understand that natural processes (earth processes) become natural
hazards when people live or work in the vicinity where such processes occur, with this in mind
we can properly understand the ways in which we can assess the potential of natural hazards
and the risk that they pose to people. Keller (2012) summarises five principles that can be put
in place when it comes to the assessment of natural hazards.

 Scientific evaluation must be used to gain knowledge of hazards

 Risk analysis aids the understanding the impact of natural hazards
 Natural hazards are linked to each other for example an earthquake can cause a landslide
 Previously minimal damage disasters are turning to catastrophes due to population
increase
 Consequences of hazards can be minimized

When it comes to natural hazards the assessment of risk is very vital, risk assessment enables
people to have a good idea of the risk that they face under various hazard scenarios. A risk is
the probability of an event occurring multiplied by the consequences if it actually occurs
(University of Oslo).

From an engineer’s view point, geologic hazard risk can be expressed as below (University of
Oslo);

𝑅𝐼𝑆𝐾 = 𝐻𝐴𝑍𝐴𝑅𝐷 × 𝐶𝑂𝑁𝑆𝐸𝑄𝑈𝐸𝑁𝐶𝐸

𝑅𝐼𝑆𝐾 = 𝐻. 𝑉. 𝑈

H = Hazard (probability of threat)

V= Vulnerability of elements at risk

U = Utility of the consequence to the elements at risk

Quantitative risk assessment of geological hazards looks at the assessment of threat, hazard,
risk and countermeasures in terms of numbers (University of Oslo). Quantitative risk
assessment addresses the following six specific questions in the table.

Table 2: Aspects of quantitative risk assessment

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

What can cause harm? Identify the hazard and its threat
How often? Determining the frequency of occurrence of
the geological hazard
What can go wrong? Determine the consequence of failure
How bad? Analyse the severity of failure consequence
So what? Determine the acceptability of risk
What should be done? Provide ways in which risk can be managed

Quantitative risk assessment is a tool for decision making under uncertainty when it comes to
natural hazards. The figure below shows how QRA falls into decision making.

Figure 3 Showing the steps to achieve quantitative risk assessmemt

Computations of geologic hazard risk
There are a number of ways in which consequences from a natural hazard may be expressed,
for instance considering the risk from earthquake damage to a nuclear reactor the consequence
maybe evaluated in terms of radiation released which can be further translated into damage to
people and other living things. The most important thing to note is that in any assessment it is
crucial to calculate the risks of various possible events for instance in analysing earthquakes
one must consider the impact of earthquakes of various magnitudes because large earthquake
(with high magnitude) has lower probability of occurring than does a small one but its
consequences are likely to be higher (Keller, 2012).

Keller (2012) continues to state that the main problem faced when it comes to risk analysis is
the lack of reliable data available for analysing the probability of an event, this is so because
it’s hard to assign probabilities to geological hazards because the known chronology of past
events is often inadequate. But with advancement in technology the methods of determining
earthquake and volcanic eruption probabilities are improving together with the ability to
estimate consequences of such events.

The knowledge in determination of the probability and consequences of natural events leads to
the provision of reliable forecasts and predictions necessary for decision making (Keller, 2012).
Quantitative methods for computing geologic hazard and risk can be statistical or probabilistic
(University of Oslo).

An example of the statistical approach is the New York state Rock fall Hazard Rating
Procedure, where relative hazard is defined by;

𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 = 𝐺𝐹 × 𝑆𝐹 × 𝐻𝐸𝐹

GF is the geologic factor, which is the sum of the seven indicators of hazard assessed
subjectively. The indicators are fractures, bedding planes, block size, rock friction, water, rock
fall history and Back slope. SF is the section factor which depends on ditch and slope geometry
(largely deterministic). HEF is the human exposure factor, this describe the possibility of being
it by falling rock or hitting a rock lying on the road.

Probabilistic method depends on reliability analysis for example when analysing slope
stability, we can use the factor of safety to find the probability of a hazard (in this case slope
failure).
Figure 4: Showing the analysis of factor of safety for slope stability (University of Oslo)

(University of Oslo)

Figure 5: Showing the relationship between factor of safety and the possibility of slope failure

RISK MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL HAZARDS

Risk management looks at the promotion of identification, analysis and quantification of the
probability of damage that a natural hazard might cause, considering the vulnerability of the
human environment and the ways to prevent and mitigate the losses in advance. The goal of
risk management is to reduce human and material losses that natural hazards may cause at any
point in time (Mora, 2009).

In risk management the possibility of losses is identified, analysed and quantified, then at the
same time the measures of prevention, mitigation and retention of risk can be proposed and
executed (Mora, 2009). When the risk of geologic hazard has been quantified, the process of
risk management becomes easy (University of Oslo).

Figure 6: Showing the aspects of risk management plan for a landslide hazard (University of Oslo)

The University of Oslo lists an early warning system (EWS) as the main component of risk
management for the detection and dealing with an expected natural hazard. EWS acts as a
procedure to warn of potential or an impending natural hazard.

An early warning system relating to natural hazards must fulfil at least the following five
components (University of Oslo):

 Provision of knowledge and means of forecasting the danger faced from a geological
hazard

 Provide information from technical monitoring and visual observation of the natural
hazard

 Provide response plan to the hazard

  Disseminate meaningful warnings to the population at risk

 Help the public with awareness and preparedness to respond to the warning

Figure 7: Showing the principle components of EWS (University of Oslo)

Early warning systems mitigate risk by the reduction of consequences by issuing early
warnings to give sufficient time for the implementations of actions to protect persons and
property (University of Oslo). Data from satellites can be used for early warning systems, in
the case of an earthquake the only early warning can be issued after the first tremor has been
detected and usually it’s not early enough for the evacuation of the population at risk.
Technology for early warning systems is readily available these days it includes, sensors,
communication technology, data collection systems, data analysis software and forecasting
methods and modelling tools (University of Oslo).

Geotechnical Engineers in their work have always relied on the concept of early warning but
just under another name called “observation method. A successful EWS must be able to
identify and measure the relevant precursors of an event. For instance, you can expect a
landslide if the following things are observed; Intense rainfall, Earthquakes and ground
vibrations, High rate of slope movement, Rapid increases in pore water pressure and Erosion
at the toe of slope. This will then help planning of proper mitigation measures to reduce the
landslide risk (University of Oslo).

An early warning system must be reliable and avoid providing false alarms by using well
proven monitoring systems, redundancy in instrumentation and making maximum use of
human intelligence and engineering judgement in decision making.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion natural hazards become catastrophic events when they impact a large population
living where they occur (University of Oslo). The main problem with natural hazards is that
their impact heavily falls onto the population which in large majority does not have the
opportunity to participate in nor informed about the characterization of the risk to which they
are exposed to and options to manage it (Mora, 2009). Even though engineers are able to
analyse to accurately the aspects as causes and potential consequences of hazards, losses from
these catastrophic events continue to increase year in year out. All these aspects need to be
considered when it comes to risk management to ensure that the end results benefit the
vulnerable parties (Mora, 2009). We cannot avoid the occurrence of most of geologic hazards
because they are a part of how the earth is designed but we can be able to provide ways to
mitigate the consequences and reduce the damage that they cause to life and property. With
proper natural hazard assessment and risk management plans by the use of high engineering
judgment in early warning systems. the damage from natural hazards can be reduced.
References
Hencher, S. (2012). Practical Engineering Geology. New York: Spon Press.
Keller, E. A. (2012). Introduction to Environmental Geology (5th ed.). New Jersey: Prentice
Hall.
Mora, S. (2009). Disasters are not natural: risk management a tool for development.
Geological Society, London, Engineering Geology Special Publications, 22, 101-112.
doi:10.1144/EGSP22.7
Price, D. G. (2009). Engineering Geology Principles and Practice. (M. de Freitas, Ed.) Berlin
Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
University of Oslo. (n.d.). Geohazard Mitigation. Strategies for Mitigation of Risk Associated
with Geohazard. Norway.