TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN

-------------o0o--------------

GROUP 5

Analyze the situation of trade

balance in Vietnam since 2010

Name of students : Nguyễn Thị Hiền Thương – 1231372

Đỗ Thị Diễm Hương – 1231313
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Sương- 11231363
Bùi Duy Thái Sơn – 11231361
Class : Financial Economic FE65B

Ha Noi – 2024
 Table of contents

List of Abbreviations
Abbreviation Definition
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
WTO World Trade Organization
NX Net Export
FTAs Free Trade Agreements
MFN Most Favoured Nation
BOP Balance of Payments
IMF International Monetary Fund

2
 Introduction
On January 11, 2007, after 11 years of negotiations, Vietnam officially became a
member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), accelerating its process of
international economic integration and opening a new phase in which Vietnam's
economy integrates more deeply and comprehensively into the global economy.

Along with bilateral free trade agreements, Vietnam has even more favorable
conditions to enter the international goods trading market. Vietnam is geographically
advantageous (of the 39 shipping routes currently operating worldwide, 29 pass
through the East Sea, and of the 10 largest shipping routes globally, one passes
through the East Sea area and five are related), suitable for trading, importing, and
exporting goods by sea, air, and land. The exchange of goods between countries is a
necessity, combined with societal demands, which has given rise to international
import-export trade.

So, how has the import and export of goods in recent years affected Vietnam's
economy? To answer this question, we have chosen the topic "Analyze the situation of
trade balance in Vietnam since 2010" for our research.

Contents

I. THEORETICAL BASIS OF TRADE BALANCE

1. Defenition of balance trade
The balance of trade is a measure of the difference between the value of a
country's or an economy's exports and imports of goods over a specific period, usually
one year.
As a measure of the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods,
the balance of trade is an item in the current account of the balance of payments. It
reflects the difference between the revenue from exports and the expenses for imports
of goods, which can be physically observed crossing borders (also known as tangible
goods).
2. States of the balance trade
Depending on the difference between the value of exports (E) and imports (M) of
goods of a country during each period (computing by Net Export), we have different
states of the country's balance of trade (BOT). Specifically:
- Balanced Trade (NX=0): This is the state when the export and import values of
goods of a country are equal during the considered period. Achieving a balanced trade
is a long-term goal in the economic development strategy of countries because it
indicates that the country's trade is stable, with no significant surplus or deficit, and it
does not overly depend on one or several commodities or trading partners.
- Trade Surplus (NX>0): This is the state when the export value of goods of a country
exceeds the import value of goods during the considered period. This means exports
play an important role in the economy, and this is a positive signal in the BOT.
- Trade Deficit (NX<0): This is the state when the import value of goods of a country
exceeds the export value of goods during the considered period. This means the

3
economy is dependent on imported goods from abroad, and timely measures are
needed to address this.
However, the state of a trade surplus or deficit in the short term does not necessarily
reflect the actual state of the economy. For instance, if the government uses stringent
measures to limit imports to maintain a surplus or balance in the BOT, such
restrictions may reduce long-term economic growth, making it very difficult to
improve the BOT, especially in the context of trade liberalization. Another point to
note is that a balanced BOT is only a temporary phenomenon. The balanced state of
the BOT is similar to other economic states such as supply-demand balance, price
balance, and monetary balance. In reality, the BOT constantly fluctuates around the
equilibrium state. This dynamic helps us understand the state of the economy, enabling
us to devise policies and measures to improve the BOT and adjust macroeconomic
policies appropriately.
3. Factors affecting the balance of trade
There are many factors affecting the BOT, but only three main factors are
mentioned below.
3.1. Exchange rate
Each country's currency is valued in terms of other currencies through the use of
exchange rates, so that currencies can be exchanged to facilitate international
transactions.
Real exchange rate changes reflect national competitiveness. When the real
exchange rate is high, the local goods become more expensive for foreigner but
foreign goods become cheaper for domestic. Country's exports will be higher while
imports will be lower. Therefore, with a high real exchange rate, net exports will be
lower and the current account deficit will be higher.
However, if the nominal exchange rate decrease but were offset by higher
domestic inflation, so the real exchange rate will not change, therefore, it will not
impact on net exports (Miles and Scott 2005).
3.2. Trade policy
The Government and the State, when enacting policies, have a significant impact
on all import and export activities of a country. All goods will be regulated, supported,
and restricted in certain aspects, leading to various changes in prices.
- Subsidies for Exporters:
Some governments offer subsidies to their domestic firms, so that those firms can
produce products at a lower cost than their global competitors. Thus, the demand for
the exports produced by those firms is higher as a result of subsidies.
Many firms in China commonly receive free loans or free land from the government.
These firms incur a lower cost of operations and are able to price their products lower
as a result, which enables them to capture a larger share of the global market.
- Restrictions on Imports:
If a country's government imposes a tax on imported goods (often referred to as a
tariff), the prices of foreign goods to consumers are effectively increased. Some
industries, however, are more highly protected by tariffs than others. American apparel
products and farm products have historically received more protection against foreign
competition through high tariffs on related imports.

4
In addition to tariffs, a government can reduce its country's imports by enforcing a
quota, or a maximum limit that can be imported. Quotas have been commonly applied
to a variety of goods imported by the US and other countries.
3.3. Inflation
If a country's inflation rate increases relative to the countries with which it trades,
its current account will be expected to decrease, other things being equal. Consumers
and corporations in that country will most likely purchases more goods overseas (due
to high local inflations), while the country's exports to other countries will decline.

II. ANALYSIS OF VIETNAM'S TRADE BALANCE DURING THE

FROM 2010 - 2023
1. Analysis of Vietnam's trade balance during the period 2010-2015
1.1. Current Status of Vietnam's Import and Export Activities in the Period 2010-
2015
1.1.1. Current Status of Vietnam’s Export Activities from 2010 to 2015:
- During the period 2010-2015, the export of goods achieved a high growth rate.
The proportion of Vietnam's export value in the total global export value increased
more than threefold in 15 years, from 0.25% in 2001 to 0.8% in 2015, especially in the
agricultural product group. Although the contribution proportion is still low, this
indicates Vietnam’s increasingly deep and broad participation in the global value
chain, significantly improving the position of Vietnam in general and Vietnamese
goods in particular.
- Structure of Exports by Major Commodities:
During the period 2010-2015, the export of goods achieved a high growth rate.
The proportion of Vietnam's export value in the total global export value increased
more than threefold in 15 years, from 0.25% in 2001 to 0.8% in 2015, especially in the
agricultural product group. Although the contribution proportion is still low, this
indicates Vietnam’s increasingly deep and broad participation in the global value
chain, significantly improving the position of Vietnam in general and Vietnamese
goods in particular.

5
 180000 Some main goods exportation from 2010-2015 (million USD)

160000

140000
64158.1
120000 63596.2
54298.8
100000
53287.8
80000 30239.6
48771.3 23572.7
21253.3
60000 11434.4 15607.6
36521.2 12746.6 10636
6396.7 7848.8 10317.8 12012.6
40000 4662.2 8400.6
2307.3 6549.4 7263.9
3590.1 17933.4 20101.2 22808.7
5123.3 13211.7 14416.2
20000 11209.8 6145.3
3960.5 4665.5 5591.8 6797.5
3444.5 7241.5 8211.9 7226.4 7224.2 3823.8
5023.6 7825.3
0 5016.9 6112.4 6088.5 6692.6 6568.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fishery product Crude oil
Wood and wooden products Textile, sewing products
Footwear Electronic goods,computers and their parts

The number of export items with a turnover of over 1 billion USD has
continuously increased and dominated the scale of Vietnam's exports. As of 2010,
Vietnam had 18 export items with a turnover of over 1 billion USD. By 2015, the
country had nearly 30 items reaching over 1 billion USD. Notably, mobile phones and
components brought in over 30 billion USD for Vietnam, surpassing petroleum, which
was once a "pillar" in the export sector.
- Structure of Export Markets:
Vietnam's export market has continuously expanded significantly in terms of scale
and the number of new markets. As seen in the chart, the proportion of Vietnam's
export markets has changed little over the years. Particularly, the largest export
markets still include the United States, China, Japan, and several other Asian countries
such as South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. As of 2015, the United
States remained Vietnam's largest export market. This is the result of the Bilateral
Trade Agreement between the two countries and Vietnam's accession to the WTO.
Vietnam's exports to the United States reached 14.2 billion USD in 2010, accounting
for 20% of the export market structure. By 2015, this figure had risen to 33.5 billion
USD, accounting for 21%. Following the United States in 2015 were the EU (30.9
billion USD), ASEAN (18.2 billion USD), China (16.6 billion USD), Japan (14.1
billion USD), and South Korea (8.9 billion USD).

6
 Exports of goods by country group, country and ter-
ritory by Country and territory and Year
(million USD)
100%

90% 14,238.10 16,955.40 19,665.20 23,852.50 28,634.70 33,451.00

80%
7,742.90 11,613.30 12,836.00 13,177.70 14,928.30 16,567.70
70%
7,727.70 11,091.70 13,064.50 13,544.20 14,674.90 14,100.30
60% 6,682.90 7,167.50
3,092.20 4,866.70 5,580.90 8,915.40
50%
11,385.50 16,541.30 20,302.00 24,324.10 27,895.50 30,928.30
40%

30% 10,364.70 13,656.00 17,426.50 18,584.40 19,106.80 18,195.10

20%

10% 17,685.60 22,181.30 25,654.10 31,867.10 37,809.40 39,858.90

0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Others ASEAN EU(*) Korea, Rep.
Japan China United States
Vietnam's goods have penetrated almost all major markets in the world. Along
with joining the WTO, trade barriers have been almost completely eliminated, and
Vietnam's exports have increasingly expanded in both quality and quantity. This
demonstrates that the process of international integration has had a positive impact on
the growth of our country's exports and, consequently, has also positively affected the
balance of trade.
1.1.2. Current Status of Vietnam’s Import Activities from 2010 to 2015
Overall, the total import turnover of our country continued to increase during the
2010-2015 period.
- Structure of Imports by Major Commodities:
According to statistical data, the structure of Vietnam's import items has not
changed significantly over the years. Vietnam's imports still mainly focus on items
such as petroleum oil, chemicals, and plastic in primary form, with a large and stable
proportion (nearly 50%) of Vietnam's total import turnover.
Given the low level of economic development, the increase in imports of
machinery, equipment, raw materials, and fuels has facilitated Vietnam's access to
advanced technology and equipment, improved technological standards, addressed the
shortage of input materials, and contributed to the growth of exports.

7
 Some main goods exportation from 2010-2015 (million USD)
180,000.00

160,000.00

140,000.00

120,000.00
105,231.40

100,000.00
90,145.50
79,682.70

80,000.00 67,822.50
65,382.30

60,000.00 52,788.40
18,823.50 23,211.40
17,784.30
40,000.00 13,166.40
7,873.80 7,732.10
6,701.20 7,491.70
5,208.30 6,442.30 6,019.90 4,568.10
2,902.00 3,091.60 3,768.20 5,007.90
6,164.60 9,560.00
20,000.00 2,935.10 6,791.10 7,135.50 8,397.00 10,234.30
5,383.10 4,763.10 4,804.00 5,715.30 6,316.30
3,780.40 2,717.10 2,780.30 3,236.40 5,942.90
2,137.40 3,032.00 3,133.60
6,441.30 9,878.10 8,960.20 6,951.90 7,467.20 5,522.70
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Petroleum oil, refined (Mill. USD)
Chemicals (Mill. USD)
Plastic in primary form (Mill. USD)
Textile fabrics (Mill. USD)
Auxiliary materials for textile, footwear (Mill. USD)
Iron, steel (Mill. USD)
Electronic goods, computers and their parts (Mill. USD)

- Structure of Import Markets:

Along with the expansion of export markets, the scale of Vietnam's import markets
has continuously increased and developed. The structure of Vietnam's import markets
has generally not changed significantly, mainly depending on a few markets such as
China, Japan, South Korea, and Japan...

8
 Imports of goods by group country, country and territory by Group
country, country and territory and Year
100%
90% 19,325.20 25,121.60 23,170.20 26,973.40 31,567.80 32,493.10
80% 7,785.00
3,766.90 4,826.40 5,223.80 6,287.00
4,529.20
70%
60% 20,203.60 24,866.40 29,035.00 36,886.50 49,458.00
43,647.60
50%
9,016.10 10,400.70 11,602.10 11,558.30
40% 12,857.00 14,225.10
30% 9,757.60 13,175.90 15,535.40 20,677.90 21,728.50 27,578.50
6,361.70 7,745.80 8,791.00
20% 9,425.60 8,842.70 10,450.30
10% 16,407.50 20,910.20 20,820.30 21,287.10 22,918.50 23,785.90
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ASEAN EU(*) Korea, Rep. Japan
China United States Others

1.2. Status of Vietnam's Balance of Trade from 2010 to 2015

Vietnam Trade Balance (million USD)

325,000.00

275,000.00

225,000.00

175,000.00

125,000.00
Axis Title

75,000.00

25,000.00

-25,000.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total 157075.3 203655.5 228309.6 264065.5 298066.2 327792.6
Exports 72236.7 96905.7 114529.2 132032.9 150217.1 162016.7
Imports 84838.6 106749.8 113780.4 132032.6 147849.1 165775.9
Balance(*) -12601.9 -9844.1 748.8 0.3 2368 -3759.2

- In 2010 and 2011, the balance of trade remained in deficit due to the impact of
the global economic crisis (2008). However, there were positive changes in 2011 when
export and import turnover increased rapidly, and the trade deficit in 2011 decreased
compared to previous years.
- In 2012, the balance of trade started to show a surplus. For the first time since
1993, Vietnam experienced a trade surplus of 748.8 million USD thanks to strong
export growth of 18.3%, reaching 114,529.2 million USD, while imports grew at a
lower rate of 7.1%, reaching 113,780.40 million USD. In the following years, the
balance of trade continued to show a surplus.

9
 - In 2015, the trade deficit reappeared with a deficit of 3,759.20 million USD. To
explain this phenomenon, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai cited
6 main reasons:
Decrease in Exports by FDI Enterprises: The trade surplus was primarily due to
FDI enterprises, while domestic enterprises still had a trade deficit. Exports by FDI
enterprises were decreasing due to reaching capacity limits and saturated profits.
Decrease in Main Export Items: Key export items of FDI enterprises, such as
phones and electronic components, would not increase significantly in the following
year as production capacity had peaked.
Macroeconomic Instability: The macroeconomic situation had not shown
significant changes, especially in the manufacturing sector, leading to higher imports
compared to exports.
Participation in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): Signing multiple FTAs led to
increased foreign investment in Vietnam, resulting in higher demand for importing
machinery and equipment for production.
Shift in Machinery Import Sources: Due to tensions with China, Vietnamese
enterprises shifted to importing machinery and equipment from other countries with
good quality but high prices, increasing import costs.
Increase in Coal and Crude Oil Imports: Many thermal power plants began
operating in 2015, increasing the demand for imported coal due to limited domestic
mining. Restricting crude oil exports and increasing crude oil use for the Dung Quat
refinery reduced export turnover. Additionally, importing oil from Russia and the
Middle East increased to serve Dung Quat, while finished oil products only served
domestic demand. Currently, Dung Quat's oil only meets 30% of the market.

2. Analysis of Vietnam's trade balance during the period 2016-2023

2.1 Current State of Vietnam's Export Activities (2016-2023)
- Export Surplus: From 2016 to 2022, Vietnam's economy experienced seven
consecutive years of export surplus. In 2023, Vietnam continued to maintain this
achievement. For a developing country (with high import demand and limited
competitiveness in processed products in international markets), achieving an
export surplus is a significant accomplishment, reflecting the efforts and qualitative
development of the economy.
- Export Structure by Main Products: The range of exported goods from
Vietnam has become increasingly diverse, and export revenue has continuously
risen. In 1986, Vietnam had only a few low-value export items. By 2016, there
were 24 items with export values exceeding USD 1 billion (phones and
components: USD 34.32 billion; textiles: USD 23.84 billion; electronics,
computers, and components: USD 18.96 billion; footwear: USD 13.0 billion;
machinery, equipment, and spare parts: USD 10.14 billion; seafood: USD 7.05
billion; wood and wooden products: USD 6.97 billion). By 2022, the number of
items with export values exceeding USD 1 billion increased to 48.

10
 The range of exported goods from Vietnam has become increasingly diverse, and
export revenue has continuously risen. In 1986, Vietnam had only a few low-value
export items. By 2016, there were 24 items with export values exceeding USD 1
billion (phones and components: USD 34.32 billion; textiles: USD 23.84 billion;
electronics, computers, and components: USD 18.96 billion; footwear: USD 13.0
billion; machinery, equipment, and spare parts: USD 10.14 billion; seafood: USD 7.05
billion; wood and wooden products: USD 6.97 billion). By 2022, the number of items
with export values exceeding USD 1 billion increased to 48.

Export Structure by Markets: By 2022, Vietnamese exports reached nearly 200

countries and territories worldwide, including large and demanding markets such as
the United States, Japan, and the EU. Notably, Vietnam has 33 export markets with
turnover exceeding USD 1 billion and 6 markets exceeding USD 10 billion. Among
the top 10 largest export markets, spanning across Asia, Europe, and North America,
the six largest markets alone had a total export value of USD 237 billion in 2022,
accounting for 63.8% of the country's total export turnover. Since the EVFTA came
into effect until December 18, 2020, authorized organizations issued nearly 62,500
certificates of origin (C/O) for preferential treatment in the EU market, with a total
value of USD 2.35 billion. The main products granted C/O included footwear, seafood,
plastics, coffee, textiles, handbags, suitcases, fruits, bamboo and rattan products,
agricultural products, electronics, etc., indicating the effective exploitation of benefits
immediately after the agreement's implementation.

11
2.2 Current State of Imports and Structural Shift in Imports
 Import Control: Along with promoting exports, recent years have seen
effective import control measures.
 Import Turnover: The import value of goods increased from USD 174.8
billion in 2016 to USD 358.9 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth
rate of 8.8% during 2016-2023. This annual growth rate of import turnover is
lower than that of export turnover, meeting the strategic goals set.
-Import Structure by Main Products:

12
 -Import Structure by Markets:

China remains Vietnam's largest import partner, increasing from USD 50 billion in
2016 to USD 111 billion in 2023. Vietnam has also strengthened imports from major
partners such as ASEAN, South Korea, and the EU.
2.3 Trade Balance and Influencing Factors
 Trade Surplus: Vietnam's trade balance has consistently been in surplus from
2016 to now, increasing from USD 1.6 billion in 2016 to USD 28 billion in
2023.

13
 
Growth Despite Challenges: Despite difficulties due to the Covid-19 pandemic,
Vietnam's total trade turnover has consistently grown at over 10% annually from 2016
to 2023.
Reasons for Consistent Trade Surplus:
 Enterprises have effectively leveraged tariff advantages from signed FTAs.
 The production and export capacity of enterprises meets quality requirements
from importing countries.
 Vietnam's stable economic and political environment attracts FDI, boosting
exports
3. Assessment of Vietnam's Trade Balance (2010-2023).
Vietnam’s trade balance has seen various shifts from 2010 to 2023.
 2010-2015: In the early 2010s, Vietnam consistently faced trade deficits,
peaking at $9.8 billion in 2015. The economy relied heavily on imported raw
materials and capital goods for its manufacturing and export sectors. However,
increasing foreign direct investment in export-oriented industries was laying the
groundwork for a future export boom.
 2016-2023: Beginning in 2016, Vietnam's trade balance flipped into surplus
territory and the surpluses grew year after year. In 2019, the trade surplus hit
$11 billion before contracting modestly in 2020 due to the pandemic's impact
on global trade.
However, Vietnam's trade surpluses then surged to record highs, exceeding $11 billion
in 2021 and nearly $17 billion in 2022. This was driven by its rise as a major
manufacturing export hub, supplying goods like electronics, textiles, footwear, and
furniture globally. Low wages, foreign investment, free trade agreements, and a
competitive currency fueled this growth. Unless exports slow down, Vietnam's trade
surplus is expected to stay above $10 billion in 2023.

14
So in summary, the 2010-2015 period saw consistent trade deficits, while 2016-2023
marked Vietnam's transformation into a manufacturing export powerhouse running
large and growing trade surpluses.
3.1 Positive Aspects of Vietnam's Trade Balance (2010-2023) and Causes
 The positive aspects of Vietnam’s trade balance from 2010 to 2023 include:
 Economic Growth Driver: Surging exports and trade surpluses drove rapid
economic growth, averaging 6-7% annually from 2016 to 2023, significantly
boosting GDP.
 Foreign Reserve Accumulation: Consistent trade surpluses increased foreign
exchange reserves to over $100 billion by 2022, up from $20 billion in 2010,
providing a buffer against external shocks.
 Attracted Investment: Large trade surpluses highlighted Vietnam's
competitiveness as an export hub, attracting foreign investors seeking cost-
effective production bases.
 Employment Generation: Booming export sectors like electronics, textiles,
and footwear created millions of jobs, contributing to poverty reduction and
social development.
 The positive aspects of Vietnam’s trade balance from 2010 to 2023 can be
attributed to several causes:
 Low Labor Costs: Attracted foreign firms for cost-competitive production.
 Free Trade Agreements: New pacts like CPTPP and EVFTA gave
Vietnamese exports preferential access to major markets.
 Currency Advantage: A competitive exchange rate enhanced export price-
competitiveness.
 Manufacturing Capabilities: Investments and know-how transfers built
strong, cost-effective manufacturing in electronics, garments, and footwear.
 Economic Reforms: Liberalization, pro-business policies, and legal/regulatory
reforms made Vietnam an attractive trade and investment destination.
 Infrastructure Investment: Upgraded transport infrastructure like deep
seaports and industrial parks supported higher trade volumes and export-
oriented investment.
In essence, Vietnam's low costs, strategic trade pacts, competitive currency, improved
manufacturing base, market-oriented reforms, and infrastructure upgrades fueled its
export growth, generating substantial trade surpluses and elevating its status as a
manufacturing powerhouse.
3.2 Limitations of Vietnam's trade balance from 2010-2023 and causes.
The limitations of Vietnam’s trade balance from 2010 to 2023 include:
 Import Dependency: From 2010 to 2015, Vietnam relied heavily on imported
raw materials, capital goods, and production inputs, creating external
vulnerabilities.
 Loss of Export Competitiveness: Rising wages and production costs are
eroding Vietnam's export competitiveness compared to regional peers.
 Pressure on the Currency: Large trade surpluses since 2016 put appreciative
pressure on the dong, risking overvaluation and reduced export
competitiveness.

15
  Environmental Damage: Rapid industrial expansion contributed to
environmental degradation through higher emissions, resource usage, and waste
output.
The causes of limitations in Vietnam’s trade balance from 2010 to 2023 are
multifaceted and include:
 Narrow Manufacturing Focus: Exports are concentrated in labor-intensive
sectors like textiles, electronics, and footwear, with less diversification into
complex industries.
 Regional Competition: Countries like Bangladesh, India, and others in
Southeast Asia are increasingly competing with Vietnam's export industries.
 Policy Shortcomings: Policies have overly focused on basic manufacturing
exports rather than upgrading domestic capabilities and transitioning to higher-
value industries.
 Institutional Weaknesses: Infrastructure deficiencies, human capital gaps, and
rigid regulations have constrained progress into more sophisticated production.
 Limited Domestic Demand: Overreliance on exports has led to
underdeveloped domestic consumer demand as an economic growth driver.
Environmental Policy Lapses: Lax environmental enforcement allowed increased
industrial pollution and ecological harm during the export boom.
III: Solutions to Improve Vietnam's Trade Balance in the Upcoming Period
1. Short-term Measures
1. Reducing Trade Deficit through Limiting Investment and Consumption
Demand:
 Implement tight monetary policies: increase interest rates and tighten credit.
 Review and calculate protection rates to formulate appropriate tax policies.
 Use direct tools of trade policy, tariff measures within the limits of Most
Favoured Nation (MFN) commitments, and non-tariff measures such as
technical barriers and import quotas; consider applying the Balance of
Payments (BOP) exceptions clause in WTO regulations for emergency
situations.
2. Reducing Budget Deficit through Cutting Expenditure and Public
Investment:
 Significantly reduce public spending.
 Temporarily halt public investment projects (apply with caution).
 Strictly control the investment activities of state-owned enterprises.
3. Seeking Additional Possible Short-term Capital Inflows:
 Enhance the attraction of foreign capital, particularly FDI (cautiously to avoid
the risk of receiving low-quality FDI with long-term negative impacts), and
improve the disbursement rate for approved projects.
 Facilitate the attraction of remittances.
Apart from these measures, Vietnam can stabilize investor sentiment and seek
short-term capital inflows through financial institutions and economic blocs by:
 Cooperating closely with traditional international financial institutions: IMF,
world bank.

16
  Advocating for, building, and implementing a Stabilization Reserve Fund
within ASEAN – East Asia (as countries are very concerned about the chain
reaction from the collapse of any member in the region).
4. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate:
 Continue tightening monetary policy.
 Allow the Vietnamese dong to fluctuate more flexibly.

2. Long-term Measures
 Accelerate the economic restructuring process, develop domestic supporting
industries to boost exports.
 Carefully assess the benefits of the FTAs Vietnam plans to sign with other
countries to ensure actual benefits from these FTAs and prevent a sudden
increase in net imports.
 Continue to strengthen domestic support services, enhance trade facilitation
measures, further develop the transport network and support services, and
continue institutional and administrative reforms to reduce costs and improve
the competitiveness of export goods.
 Maintain an attractive investment environment to attract investment and
enhance Vietnam's competitiveness.
 Improve the human capital capacity in Vietnam through investment in
education, as human capital is a key factor to promote high-value activities in
Vietnam.
 Set the goal of reducing the budget deficit as a long-term strategy.

Conclustion
In recent years, Vietnam has continued to effectively leverage the opportunities of
international economic integration to maximize export markets and develop new ones.
Although Vietnam's export-import activities have achieved impressive results, they
still face numerous challenges, particularly the prolonged outbreak of the pandemic.
Export-import operations have encountered various barriers such as difficulties in
transporting goods, disruptions in many supply chains, and uneven market recovery.
The new context requires regulatory agencies and businesses involved in export-
import to be proactive and flexible in implementing solutions to cope with emerging
risks and seize opportunities to boost export-import activities. This contributes to
improving the trade balance, promoting economic growth and development, and
achieving the dual goals under current conditions.

Adapting to and changing with the new context is essential for us at present. Adjusting
exchange rate policies to enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate within stable
limits; loosening the central exchange rate and pegging the VND to a basket of
currencies is reasonable. This is especially true as Vietnam's trading partners become
more diverse, the economy becomes more open, and capital flows are increasingly
liberalized.

References
17
2016. Những diễn biến chính trong cán cân thương mại giai đoạn 2011 – 2015.
Tapchitaichinh.vn
Mai, V.T.N., 2015. Nghiên cứu thực trạng cán cân thương mại của Việt Nam trong
giai đoạn kể từ khi gia nhập WTO cho đến nay và giải pháp cải thiện, Chapter 1,
Chapter 2.
Tuyen, N., 2014. Năm 2015 sẽ “đứt mạch” xuất siêu, Bộ Công thương nói gì?.
Thuvienphapluat.vn
Thuy, Đ. B., 2021. Đánh giá về hoạt động xuất khẩu của Việt Nam năm 2020 và 5
năm 2016 – 2020. vioit.org.vn
Thương mại và dịch vụ. gso.gov.vn
Kyssha, M., 2022. An Introduction to Vietnam’s Import and Export Industries.
vietnam-briefing.com
Statista Research Department, 2023. Number of employees in the IT, electronics and
telecommunications industry in Vietnam in 2021, by segment. statista.com
Thuc, Đ.T.T., 2021 Cán cân thương mại và tác động của cán cân thương mại tới tăng
trưởng kinh tế trong điều kiện bình thường mới ở Việt Nam, Tapchitaichinh.vn

18