Ex Two Ceiny Qure tösted togedhu Findl the prababit teacls

Soluion - Semple Spae is giwa by S=HH, T, TH, 7T}

(Head on
boh cain) Noy faaura ble Sayple pait n(A) = 1
No f po5i}de Sempde fawt n (s) = 4
Rbeobabity of heads en both Cain PA) =9
No. auurasle Casts ncA)
P(A) =
n(s)

Ex
Find the pxababiity o hoaiy
Soion
Sompde Spalt S = L. 2, 3, 4,5, 6
EntA = Entn number on he dice = 2, 4, 6 t
No of faauatte Sampe paint n 4) = 3
No
o posible Somph þeaint n(s) = 6
ein een embe
oith a dice

n(A)
p (A) = 3
n(s) 6 2
 Psobabiiy
Cains ee

Cne tel 2 Haads At deast 2 Heade Atmost 2Headh

e) 2 Heady appear in succeiOn
Soution
Sampe Spa ce S =} HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, H77, TH7, TIH, TTT}
n(s) = 8
Let A = Ewt o gting 1 tal
A = HHT, HTH, THH}
n(A) = 3

Psubabilty ogutiy One lal PuA) = nA) 3

&

Let B - Enet gctiy 2Heads

B=HT, HTH, THH}
n(B) = 3
n (8) - 3
2 Head PB) = nls)
Let C= Enent of gtiy at eat 2Headi
c =HHH, HH7, HTH, 7HH}

Paebabiby gting at lenat 2 Hed P(c) = n(s) 2

d let D = Enet of geting tmot 2Heads
D PHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, T77?

n (D)
P(D) =
n(s)

Let E =Enent of gtiy 22 Heock

Headh in
in succesion
E= HH7, THH}
nE) 2
nE) 2
PE) n(s) 8
Ex In a
olice find dhe Psobabity o geting
ingle thorou coith too de.
dhe sum o 10.
Soutio
when two dice ae thteon ogelher ht Sampde space
S is gin by 66 = 36
n(s) =36
Lt A=Eneat a geting atatd o 10
1o
A= (6, ), (4, 6), (5,5 )
n(A) = 3

n(A)
n(s)
=3

36 l2

Ex Two unbicsed dice ase throon . Finel he Psobability that

Boh the die show Hhe Some humb en L/G Ans
5 he toted od he number on he dicei 8
5/36 Ang
The tolad of the numben on dhe die is
greale than &
 * Porobobility ( Acdi Hon Thecim ol Probabidiy )

Awhen Ewnts ane Mutually Exelusine

PAUB) = PA) + P(B)

pAUBUC) = P(A) + P B)+ PCC)

Exclsie
uhen Enats ae nt
nat Mutuay
PCAUB) = PA) + P(8) -P(ANB)
13

(ANB) A0Bn) PAVBUC) = PA) t P(B) + PCC) - P(ANB)

- PLBnC) - P(Anc)+ PAnBn)
(cnAY

Notaioh
Eweat Notation Ewat (AnT)U (AnB)
Not A AnBNc
A QnlC
Allthree of A, 8,
A or B A UB
toco f A, 8, a-de (An80)u (ANBne)
A end ß AnB Exaty U(ADBOc)
A bt Not B
Nulhen Anor 8
At Leart one of A. Bon C AUBUC
 Preobabiliy
and B be enent in a sample Space uch that
tx I A
P(A) =2 P(B) = anl P(A NB) =

Find
P(A) = 1 - PA) = I- =

32
P8) = 1- p(B) = l-1
PCAUB) = PA) + P(B) - PCAB)
+
2 3 4
7
|2
PC = 1- P(AnB)
1 -

P(A nB) = p(B) - PAn B

3 4 I2

(A N8)
PA = PA)- P(A NB)

PLÁnB) = 1-PlA U8)

Ex what is he probablib a olring eidhen an ace
iy tom
a deck f 52 Cards.
Souion
Totad Number af otcome n(s) =52
Let A- Enat o gittiy Ace n(A) = 4
Let B = Enet of Thee cwe 4king

Prabability od geiny Ae P(A) = n(a)

n(s) 52

Prubasiy o gtiny hig PeB): n(8)

m( S)
Prababiy o drawig eithen Ace e

P(AUB) = PA) + Pe B)
4
S2 S2

8
52
Ex So bolts ancd 150 nut. tal! of the
A dbrawer Contains so
bolt an odl of he nuts aure ustd.
Choten at susndom hat i dhe psobobidity dhet it u sutiJ
Juited
Solution - Let A= Ttem chosen is
B = Ttm chotn is bot
ANB= Tttm ehotn is sutd bolt

Bolt Nuts Total

Ruted Ttm 25 75

Non Rustd Tlim 75 J00

Total 50 L50 200

Tota nmben o bolte = s0

Number Rsted bols = 25
No. o on suited bolb = 25
Totl No. Nuts
: 75
No e nonJutd Wuts 2 75

Tot No o suted tm : 25 Belt t 7s Net

l00
n(A)
n (8)
n(AnB) 25

n(A) J00
P(A) =
n(s)
 fsreha bility o Secing bolk P(B) n (B) 50
n(s) 200

Puitod ox abolt) := P(AVB) =-P(A) + P(B) -- P(A 0B)

So 25
200 200 200

Ars
 psababilit dhat a Condractor coidl get a slum biny
Ex The that he will not
Contract 2 ad the sobabiity
3
gut cotrat 4 . what is dhe
at at one
orobability that he will gt bodh 9
Soluion - Let A: Ewt of lliny flumbing Contrat

PA) 3
2
PB) |-S

Porababiiy gtong alleat ene Centract = PAUB) z

PlA or B) = PCA) + P(B) - P(AN8)
PCAUB) PCA) +P(B) - PCANB)
+
9
4 644 - P(An8)

5o-36
4s

Ang
 7heoem t# * Important 2009

Ex. Abay A Contains 2 shit

wht and 3 secl ballh euel a B
Cortei 4 whit anl s teel bally. nu ball is oon otkodom
fowm one af he bay anel es faund to be redl. Finel the
probabiliy hat it was dbaon from bag A.
Seolution Let A : Enet dhet the bal is olsaon fom the
A
B Fot that the bal u dsbwn from he
B
Jeel
R Ewnt that the ball drawn is
Daon bal i Jeel Cgjiea)
we hawe to find the obability that dhe odrauon Sad ball s
p(A/R) = 9
PA). (R/A)
PlArR)
PA). PR/A) + PB).PlR/8)

Since bodh dhe begn to be Selecteel to dra the

bel. So we hane

P(A) =1, PB) =21

7he Poobability dhat te ball dscon is ted if it is dorawn fsom
the bay A= P(R) =3 A

PCA/R) = 3
19 S2 Ary
#
Pgbabiliy Bayes There
Ex Adackerg has two machie. Paut ucords shows hat
2005

machine A
rooduces 30y R bocuce 101. Fwthen 5.
e timy an B
timym produced by Awe defeetine and ony 1: rodued by B B
were
defecire. I 4 olelecive lm is dawn at andom. what
Solution -
Let A= Eent of odrawing a tim produced by machine-A
B = Ennt o olsawing a itm broduced by machinee
D = Event
Event a olawing adefechre tim
The Dtaon iem
olefecire l giuen)
we hone to find dhe robability det the defeetine tim is oraon fis
preduced by machine -

P(8/D) = PB). PD/B)

P(B).P(D/B)+ P(A).P(D/A)
Brebabilty dhat the itim u preduced by machine A, P(A) = 30
Pobebilit that dhe mis produced by machine B, Pi3) = 20
L00
prebabiiy that the itim is delecie and psoduced by
machin A p(D/A) = 5
that he im is loo
probatiliy dalecine and produeed by
machin B
70 1 PCD/e) :
(B/D) = : loo
To
Too/ /7oloo loo1 30.S
100 oo

22 As
E
tx
Probability Baye's Theorem
An Jem is manfocwed by dhie
Doos, 201)

mechinNI Mi, M,, Ma. Clut

30. On Ma and 20 manufa ccd on M,
on M, . TH is also known dhat 27.
tm produced by M, and M, oe
odefeire, ohile 3t of these
anafoched by M, ae odefectin. I Cne it
Jandom and s aund to be elefectire. whet s the Rrobab by
dhet t
M. M,, Mg
Soluion
Let, A:= Emt of doraing onitm þroduced by machine M,
B = Ewt o doauing an itmfeduced by machine Ma
C
Ewent of draing an tam producd machine M,
Gieathat dhe daLon tem u lounlJeundl to bebe dyfetie
P'robabili y het dhe defecire dem olasn it cou manafectued by
machine Mi P(A/D) = 9
Prebabili ty dhat he odefe cine tm odraon
machine M, p (8/0) = manufa chud dy
Prebaility Ahat
machine M3M,
the odefe ciue am draon wu
p(c /D) = !
by machines Mi, M,. M
PA) = 50/10o
P(B) = 30/loo
= 20/lo0

Prababilty oy dhawng a
machine Mi pCD/A) dyetine tn foo produced
=
2/400
 Bbebab.lity of drawing a defeckive tn, produed by machine M,
P (D/8) = Ioo
2
probabiity of daoing a dekcire em, procuced by mache M,
P(D/c) = 3
Hence by Baye's Theeum,
PCA). P( D/A)
PA/D)
PA). P DIA) + PCB).P(D/B) + PC). P(D/c)
S0 . 2
3
loo 100 + +30.2+20+
/o0
) 100

60 60
+ +
J0000

10°/920
Ars
Hence by Bayes Theorem PLB). P(D/B)
PCB/D) PA).P(D/A)) + P(B).P(D/B) + P(C). P(D/c)
3o, 2 6o
loo lo0
loo00 fo 6o0 )
60/220
3

Hence by Bay's Theoem

Pl). P( D/c)
Pc/D) PA).P(D/A) +P (B). PC D/B) +P().P(D/< )

3 Ar
1)
 Bayes Theorum
Ex The chances hat doctot Acull
db 6o. The chnces that a
wil oiagnose a iscare X Cosrety
patiet will die by his tuatmet
Cooet dliag nose u toy and ehances o oleadh by
is the patent ol doeto A, who
wong oaynes
had olisee X, oieal.
probabiliy dhat hit whet

Soluton Let
A:
A= Event hat oloclost A wll iagnose a oiseGLe X
Coredy
B: Event that dloctar A wil wrongy oingneea
oiesease X
Probasility that the dleckot Aoill disgnere aobiekaK X
Cotrecty pA) =607 = 6o
loo
Bobabiity that the docloz Atoil diaghaK a dieeae X
cOrongy PCB) = 1- PCA) = 40
Joo
7he prbability dhat a patient eojll die by hiy
thetnat aftu Cornect
diagnasis girea by p(D/A) =4o =
The probability dhat a pabtnt
oil die by elok dectoxs
tieatmet aftin
P(D /2) = 70% = O
Hence by Bayes Theerem, The
coho hacl disease X, dieal ,
she
probability that afatiend o
doctor A,
PCA/D) = PCA) P(D/A) oliagneed Coseetly
PA).PC D/A) + P(8). P(D/8)
/o0
/o0
4o 6
lo o
13
 Poababiy Bayes Theeum
Afoclery har 3 macking A, BBand C psolucing loo, 2oo0
ond 300o bolt per dey rupe chny Apoaduca I1 defeie
Bþrodu ces 1:54 dlechote andl c pxoduca 21 defeatirer. A
bolt s chosen at Ahe end of a day and found dufecHie.
whet is he oroba bility. ll come em aa machine A.
Solulion- Let
A= Event of d'raaing a boll
B = Event of drauing a producd by mochine A
boll froduerd ty mackine B
e Eve of
=
D
dsauing a bollfoducad by mothne
markn C
Eent of olrauoing a dyfecire boll
Since dh dracn bell is faund to be
bey mnfocked by machne A, dfecine and we hone tot fn dhet
p(A/D) == ?
Hence by Bayey Theoem
P(A/D) = p(A). P(D/A)
PUA) P(D/A) + PLB) P(D/B) + pc)
.P(D/c )
a bolt by
PCA) = l000
machines A, 8,and Care gi wn by
Jo00+2000 +3 000 Coo0

P8) = 2000
6000

p(): 300o
6o00

The probabilily of orawing a

is PCo /A) = defecie balt þrduceal by machine A
lo0
The
probubiy of duainy adyeine bolt, produd by machine g a
P(D/9) = loo
The probadii o drawing a dlefeatine boll, praduced by machne c
PCD/c) = 2
Joo

Hence 7heerem, The prebobiy oy dhe bolt s manufactuwed dy

machine A h n t ia nown thad dhe draun bolt is faundl to be
delechie ginen sy
PA). PDA)
PlA/D) =
PA).pD/4) + pB). P D/8) + P(C) PC D/c)

9000 3000 2
6o00 6000 6O00
/o0

P(A/D) = 1
lo
Ans
 # Brobbility # Permutaiong 2 Combinatone
15 = x4x3* 2 x1 =l20
13 - 3x2x = 6
Pocmut
The ations CAangemunts )
madedlesunt
ut o aaxrangcmant
gien
dhat Can be
dhat
set thinga by daking
{ dhem at
time ae Called
Called eRmuti ions. ngatine
The numhe o
fracton
is denoted by pemulationy o nthing
taken t at a
tim

n!
|n-x (n-*) |
Ex y I! Here ane
dhee objet A,8, and c
ghen dhe
oljets tokiny13
two at a ti me s peamutetiona o thee
l3 3x2 x |
3-2 6

(AB) (AC) CBC)

iiy The (3A) CA) (CB)
peamutaiong objects A, B, c
13 13 3 x2x|
l3-3

(AB)(8AC) (CA8)
(Ac8) (8 CA) (CgA )
 # Psenutoion & Combination

Combinaion
The dilferend gaus .ltckions dhat can be ade at e a ginn
humber o dhinge kiy ll of
2Qme Ot al hem at a lime, tespec ive
f thei
aangmte is Called Combinalion
The numben of all Combinatone o n olilerent thing bken s te
ime ( <n) odenotd

n
The diesnt Combinaton ford of thre object A, B,and C
todken to at
af a ime is ginn by
|3 3x 2xl
(3 =3
2x] x1
12 13-2 2 1
(A8) (A),(89
Dallerence betoeen Permetaion and Combination
In a Combingtion, he osdering of
cohere as in a the selected object is
penutaton, the cordeiny immteid
(A,B) and (B, A) ae Same inCAdering is estential.
Tuwo ces
Cembination but olifee in Permutatio
takn at at a time cut od aur Qcee
a
l2 14-2 4x32 x1
2 12 6 Pobe wayr
Two aces token aut one by Gne aut of
matley that why here we use fewe aces.
aces. In ththis Case ard
Qutcome pemutation
to find ot ell
poible
4x3x2 x)
|4-2 2 = 12 poibe wayy
 tt Ponataton Combination
En A bag Contain s te and 8 edl bal, Two dtasings el3 ball
male such dhat () Rallh ane replaad before the wcord huel
he balls are net epla Ced before dhe Be cond ual. Find the
probabiliy dhat dhe fut dsawing eoill gie 3 ohii enal dhe
Second 3 Jed bells n each Case.
Souton Total balls in dhke bag =
= 5
5 t
+8 = 13

Toted eed balls

9 whea dhe bals Replaceal

Selichon of 3 bell cut of 13 = wys
3

Seleeion o 3 wkite bal et o 5 wsite ballk in

Peobability sulechng 3white ballin fist tial = I3

13 15-3
|3
3 (13-3

3L2

310
2

=
Any
 when he balls ane not epla ced

Poababily of draing 33whte balin fout drao = 3

3

5
143

Since dhe balle are nat replaced

Jhhn the tot number of bale aftin finst das = 2 shte t&red

Poobabiliy dorawing 3 eedl ball in the se cond odraw

8C,

|8
13 LS

13 L7

8x 7x6 x LS

3x2x| x

Rey. Compeund Prababiiy 143

429 ts
 Ary 38
9
386
9
xI9x
8 20
18 12
L8 2
120-2 l2
|20 Probability
= Reqixed
lo-2 12
|lo 10,
lo, bal=l back 1o cuto bals black 2
c, =
=belle 20ofaut balle dhraing
2 ofcway tokd The
J0 + 4 4 6 =bag dhe in bal Totd Solutio-n
black.
by
are balls Tuwo balls. black J0 qnd e l white,
4 Consits
6 AEx.
Cambination Permkation t
 Pscababilty of selecing 3sed ball in secend tud .
18
13 18-3
|3
13 |13-3

L3 15
13
13 L0
8x 7xs

28
143
Ans

Ry -Pubabiliy of 33wite bal in fit tid x Psatabiliy of 3 hedball in

Comp.
prob. Becond tia
29
5 X
143 J43
140
Q0449
 84 fanaunaeCaset csel;
20
-|-
n faneuaab favew
’ inodda *
}2
X feneuaahlCasese untaveuale Cates agant’
P8) PC) =1-
n8J
solned wilprobn
be Prcbabiity
te th that
Tolal 12
PCB) |- p(B)
coey Toel 12
P(Succy) * 7
P(A)=
3
4;3 = 3to 4 *
Soled
the Soliy
8 ama salinge
poblem
agantA
A he .
en
odds the and 34to a
 # Pobabilty Distibuion

Continueu Distibuton
Dis ete DistbHon
Norma
Binomial Paion
Dstbion
DistributonQrsaeePxso )
Distibuion
Qisate PX=o) Centnuu
P(x*1 pCx1)

Bìnomial Distubuton
Surce and faidune

oobasii Probabii

[P+9 1

2 = 1 -P

P(X-o)
Plx-1)
P (x*) = p
3) Binomial Distribution
(9 +p)
( Mean = nP
Variance np9
SD
Slandad Jvanionce = np9
Qeniato
Ex Detimine the bìnomial oliybHon. whose mean t 9 ane SD -32

Mean np =9

npg 24 -)

n P2 9|4
np 9/L
1

lp= 3

n = B 9x4
3

Binom'el liitibion
Hon = (g +P)"
12
##*
Psobability Dis tu bution
Ex Aþain of dice is
thrown 7 times. I{ gelling a tolal af 7 s
Consioered a succes, what is dhe
No Success prob 6ity o
) 6 Succes
O At leat 6
Succes
)At most G Succees.
Soution

sS = fa,6), (2,5) 3,9) (4, 3)

(5, 2) (6, )}
P= 6
36
= 1/6
=

5
6
No Succes l At least 6Succes
(S) 6 Succes
P(x=o) P(x=6) P(X6)
n-7 =0 P(x=)+ P(X=7)

Co p(72 +P)
ls 7-6 (7)
78 125 7
279936
7.

3S
27993
) t o t 6 Suc es
P (x< 6)
|- P(x= 7)

279936

27993 6 -)
279336

27993
279336
 Pebabiliy Diutibton
Ex The probability a man hilling a lagt s 1/4. He fus
7Hmes. shad u dhe pobability of tis hillng
atleait toje the
P(X22 ) > plxr2) + P(x= 3)+Plx=4) +PCx=S) +Px= C) +pore7
+Pr=7.
I -/px* 0) + Pex=1)]
I-'
1- [I1g?
Paobabiliy
4
tugt
9= -P

16384
J6384 - 72g6
J6 384

gog4
l6384
4547
8192
 Binomiad Dutibudin 2o|6

Ex In a certain ton o o de þopulation is itrat, an

swme that 200 inveshgalor tike a Sample of jo nghica
each to gee ohethe
chether
dhey ae itrat tHow many imuuipalon,
weuld you enpeet tto eport that 3 peogle or lu an rate
tin dhe

Soluion
The prrabebily o a porsonbeing ilrale P= 207 =20
lo0

The frobabily o ofersen being lltde

Semple of 1o indudualk menny
Using Binomial distubuhon, e
416
forobabbty n-%

The þroba bility that 3 or les ane lli iat u giren by

P(x3) = P(o) + P) + Pl2) + p(3)
2
+

lo
3x2x/

-((2)that 3peogk ox ly ae lilert in the Samnpk i

7he umjeu af dnvegtgders supont
125.
175inhgaans woud den
hat au3oxtenst
repoudfeople
Huce
 #Binoml
Ex The bulbs soluced on a suppoked tto contein st defeci
bwbe 0has ia he pobabiiyfaclargdhat a mple o lo bells coill Con tam
no more than 2
than 2 dfectine badbr
bedbs..
Soluion
Sampk o bes n z10
L00 20

Praba biliy of non dfechie bult

20 20
Uzing Bnomial oiibuion, dhe probability e
getling natmere ttan
2 defeeine budb p(ts2) P(ro) pl=1) + 2) P(Sz
+ lo, pg

(99) As
Ex . In 256 sets o twelre toyel o a Ccein
Cas in ho
enpet egkt hea and fawn taila.
many Case may
teule.
Solution -
Numbu of ia n =l2

ercbabiiy nat gtiny head

2

Succen (Hed) p() = p

Tn 256 t o twelne tosy of aCain numbu Cases

Caseo enpect 495/2s6 xd6
enpet eyt heads
495 aga by
Erpectd Heads 256 x z 3033 z 31 Heads
 Binomial
Ex A die is thoôn 5timet. I4 giling
te probabilty af geting at leat 4 succes.
Soluton
Number a t l n =5
an ooda numben P = 6

geliny an enen umbu q = 1- 2

By Binemiad distubuhon, dhe pruba biliy ol

p

Probabiiy of getling at dea 4 Succes = Pla=y ox more )

Plr24) = Pl4) + P(5)
S

32 32
N
alw
32

: 3
16
 # Paion Ditbution
n
Vwylye
P> vey ues Probabiliy
A=np
mean

PCx=) e

Ex. Suppose x has peison dis ibtion % PlX =2) 2/3 P(x= )) , then
find Plx=o)
Plx-2) = 2 Plx=1)
e 2 e
3
2

=24 3

-4/3

-4/3 (e's
O2636
*Prababilhy
Ex
tx Find dhe prebabilty hat at ast s olefective fuse csil be
Bound in a bore of 200dusy. Il erpeuenca shews hat 2 percan
2o02

such fuse ane defe chie (e- o.0183)

Souicn
n = 2 00

Hhat Qe lefecine P= 27: = 100

2
A= np
dz 200 x 2
Joo

P(k= S os len ) = P(r= 0) + Plr=1) + P( =2) + P(s=3)+P(h=4)

-4 4 +p(=5)
4
t
Lo 12 23
|4
+eys
e 4+8 +32, 32 +128
3

= O:0183| 13 + 10.66 + L0. 66 + &. S3|

. .784] Ans
# Pabability Painon Distbuton goot

Ex. Suppose on haue in lo00 in a Centen ditit

1 that
ha a tne olning a yean. I! Jhee 2000 howses n
e

afne duning dhe year (ginea e= 0.135)

Souion -
Total number of Heuser n = 2000

Avenge number of huses that wil hare fse acidet = ne

Joo0
bane fne
Probabilily that eractly s Heurey eoill |A =2
P(= 5)

-2

- e x 32
S x4x3X2 x1

o.13Sx 324
 # Pobabiliy Diatubuton # Noomal Distibuion
Ee The marky ol laincd im atiical methods papu in
M8A int
Semetea ercamination od a monagemnt inthte. Followed ne
75 and stonard dewohion 10, 1 250
mean75
Stucent, appearcd at he ercaminaion Esimate the
wmbu a Shudat
Scoing : Let han 7o monks
) Moe dhon 9o marks
(t Between Go and go manky

Let e be dhe nomal variale ol marke

Mean( ) 75
S.D. (o) = 10

Z=

2-75

Bobabity of stludlat, Les than 70 manke (x< to)

ohen 2=70
7o- 75

|2 = - 0.5 -e ghowy het gurired

Atag beten 2=0 and Z= 0.S
0. 1915 (From the table)

P(oe< 70)= P(24 0.5) = Totl aneg

qlytsle Z= 0. 5

7o
Hene he umbu of stutcoho seaneal
Les Han 70manks out of 2so stusbt 77
() More than go mank
The stuclend m07e dhan gomaks ( 9o)
when go- 75

+ e shows hat

wl be an
Anea between Z=0 ad 2 J.S = 0.4332 ha.d ,

P(x2 go) = Plz 2 .5) = Total aneq

= 0,s- 6,4332

Hene nunber a student s O.o668

coxing
250 Stucet 250 Xoio668 = 16.7 o~ |7
Stdeu.
() The probabiliy o udants
Soring manks betwen bo and 80
when 6o-7S
= -1.S

Anea between qnd =l.5 u =

0.4332 ( Fuem tajle )
ohea
Bo -75

ngt sid o memean

Requind Brubabilty (Aaea frem bo le75) +(Anca faen 15 le 9o)
0.4332 to. 191S
O. 6D47

156 Ay