1.3.2.
Probability Basics
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It's a number between 0 and 1,
where 0 means the event is impossible and 1 means it's certain.
Basic Probability
The basic formula for the probability of an event (A) is:
P(A)= Number of favourable outcomes/ Total number of possible outcomes
For example, the probability of getting a 4 on a standard six-sided die is 1/6 because there's one
favourable outcome (rolling a 4) and six possible outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
The Addition Rule
The Addition Rule helps you calculate the probability of one event OR another event occurring. It's
used when you're interested in the outcome of at least one of two or more events.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time. For example, you can't
roll a 2 and a 4 on a single toss of a die.
• Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
• Example: What's the probability of rolling a 2 or a 4 on a single die roll?
o P(2) = 1/6
o P(4) = 1/6
o P(2 or 4) = P(2) + P(4) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
Sample problem & solution:
• Scenario: Drawing a single card from a standard 52-card deck.
• Problem: What's the probability of drawing a red card or a black card?
• Events:
• Event A: Drawing a red card (P(A) = 26/52)
• Event B: Drawing a black card (P(B) = 26/52)
• Reasoning: These events are mutually exclusive because a card cannot be both red and
black at the same time.
• Solution: P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) = 26/52 + 26/52 = 52/52 = 1 This makes sense, as a card
must be either red or black.
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are non-mutually exclusive if they can happen at the same time. For example, when
drawing a card from a deck, you can draw a heart and a queen simultaneously (the Queen of
Hearts).
• Rule: P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)
o You subtract the intersection (P(A and B)) to avoid double-counting the outcomes
where both events occur.
• Example: What's the probability of drawing a Queen or a Heart from a standard 52-card
deck?
o P(Queen)= 4/52 (there are 4 Queens)
o P(Heart)= 13/52 (there are 13 Hearts)
o P(Queen and Heart)= 1/52 (there's only one Queen of Hearts)
o P(Queen or Heart)=P(Queen)+P(Heart)−P(Queen and Heart)= 4/52+
13/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
Sample problem & solution:
• Scenario: Drawing a single card from a 52-card deck.
• Problem: What's the probability of drawing a King or a Spade?
• Events:
• Event A: Drawing a King (P(A) = 4/52)
• Event B: Drawing a Spade (P(B)= 13/52)
Intersection (A and B): Drawing the King of Spades (P(A and B) = 1/52)
Reasoning: These events are not mutually exclusive because the King of Spades is both a King and a
Spade. We must subtract its probability to avoid double-counting.
• Solution: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 ≈ 0.308
The Multiplication Rule
The Multiplication Rule helps you calculate the probability of one event AND another event
occurring. It's used when you're interested in a sequence of events.
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other.
For example, flipping a coin twice; the first flip's result doesn't change the probability of the second
flip's result.
• Rule: P(A and B) = P(A)×P(B)
• Example: What's the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row?
o P(Heads on first flip)=0.5
o P(Heads on second flip)=0.5
o P(Heads and Heads)=0.5×0.5=0.25
Sample problem & solution:
• Scenario: Rolling a fair six-sided die twice.
• Problem: What's the probability of rolling a 3 on the first roll and an even number on the
second roll?
• Events:
o Event A: Rolling a 3 on the first roll (P(A)= 1/6)
o Event B: Rolling an even number on the second roll (P(B)= 3/6= 1)
• Reasoning: The outcome of the first roll does not affect the outcome of the second roll. The
events are independent.
• Solution: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) = 1/6 × 1/2 = 1/12 ≈ 0.083
Dependent Events
Two events are dependent if the outcome of the first event affects the probability of the second
event. For example, drawing cards from a deck without replacement.
• Rule: P(A and B) = P(A)×P(B∣A)
o P(B∣A) is the conditional probability, which means the probability of event B
happening given that event A has already occurred.
• Example: What's the probability of drawing two aces from a deck without replacement?
o P(Ace on first draw) = 4/52
o P(Ace on second draw | Ace on first draw) = 3/51 (because one ace and
one card are gone)
o P(Ace and Ace) = 4/52 × 3/51 = 12/2652 ≈ 0.0045
Sample problem & solution:
• Scenario: A bag contains 8 blue marbles and 4 red marbles. You draw one marble, do not
replace it, and then draw a second marble.
• Problem: What is the probability of drawing a blue marble followed by a red marble?
• Events:
• Event A: Drawing a blue marble first (P(A)= 8/12)
• Event B|A: Drawing a red marble second, given the first was blue (P(B∣A)= 4/11)
• Reasoning: The events are dependent because the total number of marbles and the
number of red marbles change after the first draw.
• Solution: P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)= 8/12 × 4/11= 32/132 ≈ 0.242
Q. You have 2 sets of watch, sunglass, and bicycle. A set in red color another one in blue color.
What is the probability of you outing with Blue bicycle?
What is the probability of you wearing either Watch or Sunglass?
What is the probability of you picking a Sunglass or blue?
