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Topic 4. PROBABILITY
Sample Space
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Permutations
Combinations
Probability of an Event
Additive Rules
Conditional Probability
Bayes’ Rule

Objectives
Count efficiently by applying the
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Count using permutation and combination.
Determine the probability of a given event.
Apply the different laws of probability.
Interpret probability values.

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Knowledge of counting the number of

ways by which events
can happen is important
in the study of
probability. The
elements of a sample
space can be
systematically listed by
means of a tree
diagram.

Problem

How many 3-digit numbers

can be formed from the digits
1, 2 and 3 if repetition of
digits is not allowed?

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Solution:
Hundredth Digit Tenth Digit Unit Digit Number
2 3 123
1
3 2 132

1 3 213
2
3 1 231

1 2 312
3
2 1 321

Answer: 6
numbers

The fundamental principle of

counting provides a rule in
determining the number of
chance occurrence of events.
This is known as the
multiplication rule.

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MULTIPLICATION RULE
If one thing can be
done in n1 ways and a
second thing can be
done in n2 ways, then
the sequence of things
can be done together in
n1n2 ways.

Problem

How many 3-digit numbers can be

formed from the digits 1, 2 and 3 if
repetition of digits is not allowed?

Solution:

3 x 2 x 1 = 6 numbers
(H) (T) (U)

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Problem
A telephone company wants to set up a
system for a certain province. Company
officials are thinking of using a system where
each telephone number has 6 digits: the first
two digits starting with 44, 45, 47, 49 and the
last 4 digits being any number from 1 to 9.
What is the largest number of customers that
the system can service?

Solution:

1 x 4 x 9 x 9 x 9 x 9 = 26,244 nos.

Problem
If the call letters of radio stations must
begin with the letter D, the second
must be W, X, Y, or Z, while the third
and fourth may be any letter, how
many different stations can there be if:
a)repetition of a letter is not allowed
b) repetitions are allowed

Solution:

a) 1 x 4 x 24 x 23 = 2,208 stations
b) 1 x 4 x 26 x 26 = 2,704 stations

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Problem

A coin and a die are tossed.

Then a card is picked from a deck.
How many results are possible?

Solution:

2 x 6 x 52 = 624 results
(coin) (die) (card)

PERMUTATION
Other rules on counting deal with the
number of arrangements of items
with regard to the order of the items.
A permutation is a group of items
where the composition of the group
and the order of the items within the
group are both important.

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The number of permutations of n

objects taken k at a time, P(n,k), is given
by:

""
# # "$ ! ! =
# " ! ! !"

Note:

n! (n factorial) = the product of integers

from 1 to n
0! = factorial of zero = 1

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Problem

How many number of permutations of

the first 3 letters of the alphabet are
there if the letters are taken 2 at a
time?

Solution
Using Tree Diagram

1st Letter 2nd Letter Letter Combination

B AB
A
C AC
A BA
B
C BC
A CA
C
B CB

Answer: 6
combination
s

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Using Multiplication Rule (FPC):

3 x 2 = 6 combinations
(1st Letter) (2nd Letter) (Answer)

Using Permutation Formula:

"" where n = 3
# # "$ ! ! =
# " ! ! !" k=2

$" $ " # "!

! ($&# ) = =
%$ ! # !" !
! & %$ # " = ! combinations

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Problem
There are 7 children in a room, and there
are 4 seats in a row. Children are to be
assigned to these seats.

a) How many seating arrangements can

be devised?
b) How many seating
arrangements can be
devised if Amy and Lilia
cannot be seated
alongside one another?

Solution
""
a) # # "$ ! ! = where n=7
# " ! ! !" k=4

$" #!
! %$&#! = =
% $ ! # !" "!
% ' & % " $ = !"# ! "#$

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b) Assume Amy to precede Lilia = 1 position

This will make the no. of children(n) = 6
And the no. of seats (k) = 3

"" $"
# # "$ ! ! = =
# " ! ! !" %$ ! #!"
% ( ' &% $ = !"# ! "#$

If the no. of seating arrangements

in which Amy and Lilia are seated
together = 120

The no. of seating arrangements in

which Amy and Lilia are not seated
together is equal to:

840 – 120 = 720 ways

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Problem
In how many ways can 4 people be
seated in a circle? Here any
arrangement which can be obtained
from a given arrangement by a
rotation is considered identical to the
given one.

Solution
Let 4 persons be A, B, C, and D.
Arrangement I Arrangement II
A A

D B D C

C Arrangement III B
D

C A

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Note: Arrangement I and Arrangement II

are distinct but Arrangement I and
Arrangement III are the same.

To avoid repetition, fix one person and

just rearrange the other three people
around him. Thus:

3 people(n) 3 positions(k)

""
# # "$ ! ! =
# " ! ! !"
#"
! $#%#! =
$# ! #!"
P(3,3) = 6 ways

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If among n objects, j items are alike, k

other items are also alike, and still l
items are alike and so on, then the
number of distinct permutations of the
items taken all together is:

$!
% $ $ # $ $ # # " #! " " =
#! " ! !!

Problem

How many number of

permutations of the 8 letters
of the word PARABOLA are
there if the letters are taken
all at a time?

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Solution

n =8 "!
# $ " # "$ ! " " =
j = 3 a’s !!
#!
! &#%# & " $ $ =
"!
! (& '& ( ) % % = !"#$

Problem

In how many ways can the letters of

the word CALCULUS be arranged?

How many of these arrangements

begin and end with the same letter?

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Solution

$!
n =8 % $ $ # $$ # # " #! " " =
j = 2 c’s #! " !!!
k = 2 l’s #!
! &#%# & " % " % " $ $ =
l = 2 u’s "!"!"!
! '% &% ' ( & ( & ( $ $ = !"#"

How many of these arrangements

begin and end with the same letter?
CALCULUS
a) begin and end w/ letter C
C_ _ _ _ _ _C (Arrange 6 letters)

n =6 #!
! & #%# & " % " $ $ =
k = 2 l’s "!"!
l = 2 u’s ! ' % & % ' ( & ( $ $ = !"#

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CALCULUS
b) begin and end w/ letter L
L_ _ _ _ _ _L (Arrange 6 letters)

#!
n =6 ! & #%# & " % " $ $ =
k = 2 c’s "!"!
l = 2 u’s ! ' % & % ' ( & ( $ $ = !"#

CALCULUS
c) begin and end w/ letter U
U_ _ _ _ _ _U (Arrange 6 letters)

#!
n =6 ! & #%# & " % " $ $ =
k = 2 c’s "!"!
l = 2 l’s ! ' % & % ' ( & ( $ $ = !"#

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Summary:

C_ _ _ _ _ _C 180
L_ _ _ _ _ _L 180
U_ _ _ _ _ _U 180
Total No. of Ways: 540 ways

COMBINATION
A combination is a group of objects
where the composition of the group, but
not the order, is important. The number
of combinations of n objects taken k at a
time, C(n,k), is given by:

"!
# # "$ ! " =
# " ! ! "! ! !

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Problem
An instructor has prepared a set of 12
problems and will include 8 of these
problems in an examination. How many
examinations can be formed?

"!
# # "$ ! " =
n = 12
# " ! ! "! ! !
k=8 $%!
! ($%'"& = = !"#
#! "!

Problem
There are twenty points in a plane, no
three of which are collinear. How many
different line segments can be drawn on
these points?

"!
# # "$ ! " =
# " ! ! "! ! !
"$!
n = 20 ! % "$&"# = = !"#
k=2 % "$ ! "#! "!

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Problem

In how many ways can we choose 6

people including at least 2 women out
of a group of 7 men and 4 women?

3 possible groupings:
1) 2 women + 4 men
2) 3 women + 3 men
3) 4 women + 2 men

Solution: L 7 men and 4 women

I. Groupings of 2 women & 4 men

C (4,2) x C (7,4)

#! $!
No. of ways = x = 210
"! "! #! "!

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L 7 men and 4 women

II. Groupings of 3 women & 3 men

C (4,3) x C (7,3)

$! $!
No. of ways = x = 140
#! "! #! "!

L 7 men and 4 women

III. Groupings of 4 women & 2 men

C (4,4) x C (7,2)

"! x $!
No. of ways = = 21
#! "! #! "!

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Summary

3 groupings: No. of Ways:

1) 2 women + 4 men 210
2) 3 women + 3 men 140
3) 4 women + 2 men 21
Answer: 371

Problem

A bag contains 6 red balls and 4

white balls. In how many ways can
one draw:
a) 2 white balls
b) 2 balls of different color?
c) 2 balls of the same color?
d) any two balls?

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Solution
# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

a) 2 white balls

#!
! & #% " $ = = 6 ways
"! "!

# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

b) 2 balls of different color?

&! $!
" )&("' ! " ) $("' = !
%! "! #! "!

% & ' %$# C % & " %$# = !" !"#$

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# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

c) 2 balls of the same color

$!
both red: ! ' $& " % = = 15 ways
#! "!
#!
both white: ! & #%"$ = = 6 ways
"! "!
same color: 15 + 6 = 21 ways

# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

d) any 2 balls
$%!
! ($%'"& =
#! "!
% (&' % $ # = !" ! "#$

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Elementary Probability

A statistical experiment is an
activity in which the outcomes when
counted or measured can generate
data.

The set which enumerates all

possible outcomes of an experiment
is called the sample space.

Each outcome in a sample space is

called an element or a member of
the sample space or simply a
sample point.

Each outcome or group of outcomes

which do not consist of the entire
sample space, is called an event. In
other words, event is a part or a
subset of the sample space.

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Problem
If we want to determine the chances
that a family with two children will have
at least one boy, how would we list the
set of possible outcomes?

S = { (M, F), (M, M), (F, M), (F, F) }

nS = 4

E = event that family will have at least

one boy

E = { (M, F), (M, M), (F, M) }

nE = 3

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Problem

Give a sample space for an

experiment in which a number is to be
selected from the set of all 2-digit
numbers from the digits 3, 4, 5, 6
allowing repetition of digits. How many
points in the sample space correspond
to the event that the number is even?

S = { 33, 34, 35, 36, 43, 44, 45, 46,

53, 54, 55, 56, 63, 64, 65, 66}
nS = 16
E = event that number is even

E = { 34, 36, 44, 46, 54, 56, 64, 66 }

nE = 8

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Probability of an Event
The probability of an event is a number
that estimates the chances that the
event will happen.
Probability values are between 0 and 1.
If an event has a probability of 0, its
occurrence is an impossibility.
On the other hand, if an event has a
probability of 1, its occurrence is a
certainty.

If a trial has n distinct equally likely

outcomes, and an event occurs in k out
of these n outcomes, then the probability
of the event E is :

no. of favorable outcomes

P(E) =
no. of possible outcomes

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P(E) = k =
nE
n nS

0 < P(E) < 1

for all proper non-empty subsets

Joint and Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events, A and B, are joint if they

can occur together.

Two events are said to be mutually

exclusive if either one, but not both can
result from a single trial.

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Example

Throwing a die: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }

nS = 6
E1 : The outcome is even.
E1 = { 2, 4, 6 }
nE1 = 3
nE1 3
P(E1 ) =
nS = 6
= 50%

E2 : The outcome is odd.

E2 = { 1, 3, 5 }

nE2 = 3
nE2 3
P(E2 ) =
nS
=
6
= 50%

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E3 : The outcome is at least 3.

E3 = { 3, 4, 5, 6 }

nE3 = 4
nE4 4
P(E3 ) =
nS
=
6
= 67%

Are events E1 and E2 joint or mutually

exclusive?
Answer: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

Events E1 and E3 ?
Answer: JOINT
Events E2 and E3 ?
Answer: JOINT

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Problem

A person holds a ticket in a lottery in

which a total of 1,500 tickets are sold
and 10 prizes are at stake. What is the
probability that:
a) he will win a prize?
b) he will not win a prize?

Solution

nS = 1500
E1 = event of winning a prize
E2 = event of not winning a prize

%!
nE1 = 10 " ( !% ' = = ! $!!"#
%&!!

%'!$
nE2 = 1490 ") !* ( = = $ #!!""
%&$$

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Problem

A survey is taken among 50 employees in

a certain manufacturing firm on the
question of setting up a union. The results
are tabulated as follows:
Union?

!"#$%&'(F%( *F%$+$, -.LF%$%( 0FN.O

*.&F%3.34,'F, ! " #$ #%

5##F($S # & & '

TF35#','F, ! " # (

0FN.O % !$ #% %$

!"#$%&'(F%( *F%$+$, -.LF%$%( 0FN.O

*.&F%3.34,'F, ! " #$ #%

5##F($S # & & '

TF35#','F, ! " # (

0FN.O % !$ #% %$

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will
favor a union?

%$
" ' !( & = = " #!"
$"

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!"#$%&'(F%( *F%$+$, -.LF%$%( 0FN.O

*.&F%3.34,'F, ! " #$ #%

5##F($S # & & '

TF35#','F, ! " # (

0FN.O % !$ #% %$

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will
be a supervisor who favors a
union?
%
" ' !" & = = !#!"
$!

!"#$%&'(F%( *F%$+$, -.LF%$%( 0FN.O

*.&F%3.34,'F, ! " #$ #%

5##F($S # & & '

TF35#','F, ! " # (

0FN.O % !$ #% %$

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will
be a foreman?

$"
" & !' % = = " #!"
!"

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!"#$%&'(F%( *F%$+$, -.LF%$%( 0FN.O

*.&F%3.34,'F, ! " #$ #%

5##F($S # & & '

TF35#','F, ! " # (

0FN.O % !$ #% %$

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will be
a foreman and will have no opinion?

%
" ' !% & = = !#!"
$!

Additive Rules

For any two joint events A and B

which are subsets of the sample
space S, the probability of the union
of the two events is:

# " " " ! ! = # " "! + # "! ! ! # " "  ! !

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If events A and B are mutually

exclusive or disjoint,

" " # ! ! ! = " " #! + " "! !

Problem

Fifty balls are numbered 1 to 50, placed

in a box and mixed thoroughly. If a ball
is picked at random, what is the
probability that:
a) its number is divisible by 6
b) its number ends in 2
c) its number is divisible by 6 and ends in 2
d) its number is divisible by 6 or ends in 2

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Solution

a) its number is divisible by 6

A = event that number is divisible by 6
A = { 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48 }

nA = 8 #
" % !$ =
nS = 50 !"

b) its number ends in 2

B = event that number end in 2

B = { 2, 12, 22, 32, 42 }

nB = 5 !
"$!# =
nS = 50 !"

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c) its number is divisible by 6 and

ends in 2
" "  ! ! = event that number is
divisible by 6 and ends in 2

A = { 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48 }

B = { 2, 12, 22, 32, 42 }

& "  ! % = { $" # !" } #

#% "  !$ =
## "  !" = ! !"

d) its number is divisible by 6 or ends

in 2
"" ! !! = event that number is
divisible by 6 or ends in 2
# ! #
" % !$ = "$!# = #% "  !$ =
!" !" !"

# " " " ! ! = # " "! + # "! ! ! # " "  ! !

$ ! # ##
#& " ! !% = + ! =
!" !" !" !"

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Problem

The Venn diagram shows the

languages spoken by a group of 14
students. If a student is chosen at
random, compute:
a) P(he speaks only Chinese)
b) P(he speaks Chinese and French)
c) P(he speaks English or French)

Solution
2
3 2 French
Chinese
3 2 1
1
English

# " !!
" %! $ = # $"  ! # = #$" ! ! # =
!" !" !"

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Problem

Four cards are drawn from an ordinary

deck. Find:
a) P(they are of heart suit)
b) P(they are of the same suit)

Solution
$% !
nS = C(52, 4) = = 270,725
"# ! " !

a) H = event that 4 cards are of heart suit)

$% !
nH = C( 13, 4) = = 715
#!"!
!# 715
$"# ! = = = 0.00264
!" 270,725

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SS = event that the 4 cards are of the same suit

(heart suit or club suit or diamond
suit or spade suit)

P(H)= P(Cl) = P(Dia)= P(Sp) = 0.00264

) " !! ! = ) " ( ! C D ! # $% ! !" !

# " !! ! = # " ) ! + # " D ( ! + # " $ %C ! + # " !" !
" "!! ! = 4(0.00264) = 0.01056

Conditional Probability
The probability that an event B occurs
when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional
probability.
Here, the probability of a particular
outcome in the second event cannot be
determined until the outcome of the first
event is known.

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If A and B are events in a sample space

with P(A) = 0, we define the conditional
probability of B given A by the formula:

"" !  #!
""# ! =
! " " !!

If two events are independent,

" " #  ! ! = " " #! " " ! !

Problem
A box contains 1 black and 2 red balls.
Two balls are drawn one after the other.
What is the probability that the first ball
is black and the second ball is red?

B = event that first ball is black

R = event that second ball is red

##"  !? = !

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Solution
B = event that first ball is black
"
" "! ! =
!
" = event that 2nd ball is red if the
! 1st ball is black
!
#"" ! =
! !

""!  #!
""# ! =
! ""!!

""!  #! = " # ( ! )" (! )

& ! #& " # "
# ""  ! ! = $ !$ ! =
% ! "% !" !

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Problem
A company’s records show the
following distribution of its workers:

Job Status College Graduate HS Graduate Total

Regular 51 25 76
Casual 33 22 55
Total 84 47 131

What is the probability that a worker chosen

at random has a regular job status given that
the one chosen is a high school graduate?

Solution
HS = event that worker is a HS graduate
R = event that worker has a regular status

"#  ! = event that worker is a HS

graduate who has a
regular status

$## ?=!
!"

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Job Status College Graduate HS Graduate Total

Regular 51 25 76
Casual 33 22 55
Total 84 47 131

#$ #$
# " !" ! = $ " "#  ! ! =
!"! !"!
# " !"  $ !
#"$ !=
!" # " !" !
#$
25
$"# ! = !"!
#$ = = 0.532
!" 47
!"!

Problem

A pair of dice is thrown. If the sum

is 6, what is the probability that 2
comes up?

nS = 6 x 6 = 36
A = event that sum is 6
B = event that 2 comes up

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Solution

A = {(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)}

nA = 5
!# #
A " #! = =
!" !"
" "  ! ! = event that sum is 6 and 2
comes up
#
#% "  !$ =
!"

# #
" % !$ = #% "  !$ =
!" !"

#
"#( ! ) = " ""!"!!# ! = !"
#
!"

( !) = !"
#"

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Problem

In a freshman class exam, results

showed that 15% of the students failed
Physics, 16% failed English and 2%
failed both Physics and English. Are
the two events, failing Physics and
failing English independent?

Solution

P(P) = probability of failing Physics

! & ! % = $ # !"
P(E) = probability of failing English
" & ! % = $ # !"
" " "  ! ! = probability of failing both
Physics and English
" % "  ! $ = ! # !"

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For Independent Events

"""  ! ! = """!""! !
! #!" = & % $"# ! & % $"# !
! #!" ! $ #!"

Hence, the two events are

dependent.

BAYES’ RULE
Theorem of Total Probability
If when event E happens, one of the
mutually exclusive events E1, E2, …En
must happen, then:

# " " ! = # " "% ! # &$ " #! + # " " $ ! # &$ " #! + #### + # " " ! ! # &$ " #!
% "% " % "$ " % "! "

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Problem
Anna holds a box of 3 red and 2 white
balls.
Bobby has a box of 4 red and 1 white
balls.
We play a game of tossing a coin.
If heads come up, we pick a ball from
Anna’s box; if tails, we pick a ball from
Bobby’s. Find the probability that a white
ball is chosen.

Solution

P(A) = probability that Anna’s box is

picked
P(B) = probability that Bobby’s box is
picked
P(W) = probability that a WHITE ball is
chosen

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"
!
"
! "
!
"
" !
!
"
!

( A ) + # " ! ! # (" ! )
# "" ! = # " A ! # "
& " #& " # & " # &"# #
" "! ! = $ ! $ ! + $ ! $ ! =
% ! "% ! " % ! " % ! " !"

Problem
Three machines A, B, and C produce respectively
50%, 30% and 20% of the total number of items of
a factory. The percentage of defective output of
these machines are 3%, 4% and 5% respectively.
a) If an item is selected at random, find the
probability that the item is defective.
b) If an item selected at random is found to
be defected, what is the probability that
it comes from machine A ?

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Solution
0.97 Good
Machine A
0.03 Defective
0.50
0.96 Good
0.30 Machine B
0.04 Defective
0.20
0.95 Good
Machine C
0.05 Defective

D = event that item is defective

A = event that item comes from machine A

#? "#!? = !

# " " ! = # " B! # "( B )+ # " A ! # (" A )+ # "! ! # (" ! )

" "! != 0.5 (0.03) + 0.3 (0.04) + 0.2(0.05)
" & ! % = ! $ !"#

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( !)= !
A? # "

"(#  ! )
" (# ) =
! " "! !
" ( # )" (! )
"( # )= #
! " "! !

#"( !) = 0.5(0.03)
0.037
= 0.405

Problem
• Three members of a private country club have been
nominated for the office of the president. The
probability that Mr. Adams will be elected is 0.3,
the probability that Mr. Brown will be elected is 0.5,
and the probability that Ms. Cooper will be elected
is 0.2. Should Mr. Adams be elected, the
probability for an increase in membership fees is
0.8. Should Mr. Brown or Ms. Cooper be elected,
the corresponding probabilities for an increase in
fees are 0.1 and 0.4. What is the probability that
there will be an increase in membership fees?

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Problem
• With reference to the previous example, if
someone is considering joining the club but
delays his decision for several weeks only
to find out that the fees have been
increased, what is the probability that Ms.
Cooper was elected president of the club?

Problem
• A large industrial firm uses 3 local motels to provide
overnight accommodations for its clients. From past
experience it is known that 20% of the clients are assigned
rooms at the Ramada Inn, 50% at the Sheraton, and 30%
at the Lakeview Motor Lodge. If the plumbing is faulty in
5% of the rooms at the Ramada Inn, in 4% of the rooms at
the Sheraton, and in 8% of the rooms at the Lakeview
Motor Lodge, what is the probability that
• (a) a client will be assigned a room with faulty plumbing?
0.054
• (b) a person with a room having faulty plumbing was
assigned accommodations at the Lakeview Motor Lodge?
4/9

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Problem
• A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be
90% reliable when the person is guilty and 99%
reliable when the person is innocent. In other
words, 10% of the guilty are judged innocent by
the serum and 1% of the innocent are judged
guilty. If the suspect was selected from a group
of suspects of which only 5% have ever
committed a crime, and the serum indicates that
he is guilty, what is the probability that he is
innocent?

Student
Activity

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Answer the following:

1. If S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 },
A = { 2, 4, 7, 9 }, B = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 },
C = { 2, 3, 4, 5 } and D = { 1, 6, 7 },
List the elements of the sets to the following events:

# " "! !! $ ! ## " " "!  !

#" "  ! ! A! # # " " " !  !
#! # "  !" !" A " #  "  !!
Note: The symbol A‘ correspond to the
complement of set A. It is the set of all
elements of S not found in A.

2. Four married couples have brought 8 seats in a row

for a concert. In how many different ways can they
be seated
a) with no restrictions?
b) if each couple is to sit together?
c) if all men sit together to the right of all the
women?

3. How many four-letter code words can be formed from

the letters of the English alphabet if consonants and
vowels are to alternate and repetitions are not
allowed?

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4. In a study of the effect of a certain drug, 1000

people are examined, 600 used the drug
regularly and among these, 80 have exhibited
symptoms of heart malfunction. Among the non-
users, 50 exhibited the symptoms. Are usage of
the drug and appearance of the symptoms
independent events?
5. How many three-digit numbers can be formed from
the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 if each digit can be used
only once? How many of these are odd numbers?
How many are greater that 330?

6. A popular lunch time TV show features the game

“Suwerte sa Bayong”. In the game are two
“bayongs”. The first “bayong” contains four P500
bills and six P1000 bills. The second “bayong”
contains five P500 bills and four P1000 bills. Each
bill is placed in a separate and sealed envelope.
From the first “bayong”, the contestant is asked to
draw an envelope which he drops without opening
into the second “bayong”. He then draws an
envelope from the second “bayong”. What is the
probability that he will draw a P1000 bill?

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7. If A and B are independent events and P(A) = 0.2

and P(B) = 0.6, find:
a) P(A and B)
b) P(A or B)
c) P(A/B)
d) P(B/A)

8. A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled

deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the
card drawn is:
a) a diamond?
b) an ace or a red card?
c) a space or a face card?

9. Suppose that colored balls are distributed in three

indistinguishable boxes as follows:
Box
1 2 3
Red 2 4 3
White 3 1 4
Blue 5 3 3
A box is selected at random from which a ball is
drawn at random.
a) Find the probability that the ball is red.
b) Given that the ball is red, what is the
probability that box 3 was selected.

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10. A mouse enters a portion of a maze that looks

like the figure shown below. Assume that there
is an equal chance of the mouse entering each
path in a branch. If the mouse leaves through
Exit 2, what is the probability it entered through
Path Y?

Entrance

X Y

1 2 3 4 5

Proceed to Topic 5

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Answer the following:

1. If S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 },
A = { 2, 4, 7, 9 }, B = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 },
C = { 2, 3, 4, 5 } and D = { 1, 6, 7 },
List the elements of the sets to the following events:

# " "! !! $ ! ## " " "!  !

#" "  ! ! A! # # " " " !  !
#! # "  !" !" A " #  "  !!
Note: The symbol A‘ correspond to the
complement of set A. It is the set of all
elements of S not found in A.

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