System Dynamics
By:-
Kulwinder Singh(2008/12) Jagpal Singh Pawar(2007/12) Paramjit Singh(2009/12)
What is System Dynamics
Computer simulation modeling for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as business and other social systems System:
In general, a collection of interacting elements that function together for some purpose Here, feedback is the differentiating descriptor Contain quantities that vary over time Variability can be described causally Important causal influences can be contained within a closed system of feedback loops
Properties of dynamic problems
History
Cybernetics (Wiener, 1948): the study of how biological, engineering, social, and economic systems are controlled and regulated Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1961): applied principles of cybernetics to industrial systems System Dynamics: Forresters work has been broadened to include other social and economic systems Relying on computer, System Dynamics provides a framework in which to apply the idea of systems theory to social and economic problems
System Dynamics Modeling
Identify a problem Develop a dynamic hypothesis explaining the cause of the problem Create a basic structure of a causal graph Augment the causal graph with more information Convert the augmented causal graph to a System Dynamics flow graph Translate a System Dynamics flow graph into DYNAMO programs or equations
Critical Aspects
Thinking in terms of cause-and-effect relationships Focusing on the feedback linkages among components of a system Determining the appropriate boundaries for defining what is to be included within a system
Understand Cause & Effect
Causal thinking is the key to organizing ideas in a system dynamics study Instead of cause, affect or influence can be used to describe the related components in the system Some are logical (e.g. physics) Food intake weight Money happiness Fire smoke Some are not (e.g. sociology, economics) Use of seatbelts reduced highway fatalities Shortened daylight hours increased suicide rates
Feedback
Thinking in terms of cause and effect is not enough
ocean evaporation cloud rain ocean
Feedback: an initial cause ripples through a chain of causation ultimately to re-affect itself Search to identify closed, causal feedback loops is one key element of System Dynamics The most important causal influences will be exactly those that are enclosed within feedback loop
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
Represent the feedback structure of systems Capture
The hypotheses about the causes of dynamics The important feedbacks
CLD Examples
Salary VS Performance
Salary Performance Performance Salary
Tired VS Sleep
Tired sleep Sleep tired
Salary
Performance
Tired
Sleep
Augmenting CLD 1 (Labeling Link Polarity)
Signing: Add a + or a sign at each arrowhead to convey more information A + is used if the cause increase, the effect increases and if the cause decrease, the effect decreases A - is used if the cause increases, the effect decreases and if the cause decreases, the effect increases
Signing Arcs
Salary
+
Performance
Tired
-
Sleep
Augmenting CLD 2 (Determining Loop Polarity)
Positive feedback loops
Have an even number of signs Some quantity increase, a snowball effect takes over and that quantity continues to increase The snowball effect can also work in reverse Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and reinforce Notation: place + symbol in the center of the loop
Have an odd number of signs Tend to produce stable, balance, equilibrium and goal-seeking behavior over time Notation: place - symbol in the center of the loop
Negative feedback loops
CLD with Positive Feedback Loop
Salary Performance, Performance Salary
The more salary I get The better I perform The better I perform The more salary I get
Salary
+
Performance
The more salary I get The better I perform
CLD with Negative Feedback Loop
Tired Sleep, Sleep Tired
The more I sleep The more tired I am The more I sleep The less tired I am The less tired I am The less I sleep The less I sleep The more tired I am
Tired
-
Sleep
Loop Dominance
There are systems which have more than one feedback loop within them A particular loop in a system of more than one loop is most responsible for the overall behavior of that system The dominating loop might shift over time When a feedback loop is within another, one loop must dominate Stable conditions will exist when negative loops dominate positive loops
CLD with Combined Feedback Loops (Population Growth)
+ -
Birth rate
+
Polulation
-
Death rate
CLD with Nested Feedback Loops (Self-Regulating Biosphere)
Evaporation clouds rain amount of water evaporation
Sunshine
+
+ +
Earths temperature
+
Evaporation
+
+
A mount of water on earth
Clouds
+
Rain
Exogenous Items
Items that affect other items in the system but are not themselves affected by anything in the system Arrows are drawn from these items but there are no arrows drawn to these items
+
Sunlight reaching each plant Sunlight
+ -
Density of plants
Delays
Systems often respond sluggishly From the example below, once the trees are planted, the harvest rate can be 0 until the trees grow enough to harvest
delay
+ Harvest rate
# of growing trees Planting rate -
References
Simulation Model Design and Execution, Fishwick, Prentice-Hall, 1995 (Textbook) Introduction to Computer Simulation: A system dynamics modeling approach, Nancy Roberts et al, Addison-wesley, 1983 Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, John D. Sterman, McGraw-Hill,2000
Thank you
