Dr.
Pratiksha Saxena
Computer simulation modeling for studying and
managing complex feedback systems, such as
business and other social systems
System:
In general, a collection of interacting elements that function
together for some purpose
Here, feedback is the differentiating descriptor
Properties of dynamic problems
Contain quantities that vary over time
Variability can be described causally
Important causal influences can be contained within a closed
system of feedback loops
Cybernetics (Wiener, 1948): the study of how biological,
engineering, social, and economic systems are
controlled and regulated
Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1961): applied principles
of cybernetics to industrial systems
System Dynamics: Forrester’s work has been broadened
to include other social and economic systems
Relying on computer, System Dynamics provides a
framework in which to apply the idea of systems theory
to social and economic problems
Identify a problem
Develop a dynamic hypothesis explaining the cause of
the problem
Create a basic structure of a causal graph
Augment the causal graph with more information
Convert the augmented causal graph to a System
Dynamics flow graph
Translate a System Dynamics flow graph into DYNAMO
programs or equations
Thinking in terms of cause-and-effect
relationships
Focusing on the feedback linkages among
components of a system
Determining the appropriate boundaries for
defining what is to be included within a
system
Causal thinking is the key to organizing ideas in a
system dynamics study
Instead of ‘cause’, ‘affect’ or ‘influence’ can be used to
describe the related components in the system
Some are logical (e.g. physics)
Food intake weight
Money happiness
Fire smoke
Some are not (e.g. sociology, economics)
Use of seatbelts reduced highway fatalities
Shortened daylight hours increased suicide rates
Thinking in terms of “cause and effect” is not
enough
ocean evaporation cloud rain ocean …
Feedback: an initial cause ripples through a
chain of causation ultimately to re-affect itself
Search to identify closed, causal feedback
loops is one key element of System Dynamics
The most important causal influences will be
exactly those that are enclosed within
feedback loop
Represent the feedback structure of systems
Capture
The hypotheses about the causes of dynamics
The important feedbacks
Salary VS Performance Tired VS Sleep
Salary Performance Tired sleep
Performance Salary Sleep tired
Salary Performance Tired Sleep
Signing: Add a ‘+’ or a ‘–’ sign at each
arrowhead to convey more information
A ‘+’ is used if the cause increase, the
effect increases and if the cause
decrease, the effect decreases
A ‘-’ is used if the cause increases, the
effect decreases and if the cause
decreases, the effect increases
+ +
Salary Performance Tired Sleep
+ -
Positive feedback loops
Have an even number of ‘–’ signs
Some quantity increase, a “snowball” effect takes over
and that quantity continues to increase
The “snowball” effect can also work in reverse
Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and
reinforce
Notation: place symbol in the center of the loop
+
Negative feedback loops
Have an odd number of “–” signs
Tend to produce “stable”, “balance”, “equilibrium” and
“goal-seeking” behavior over time
Notation: place symbol in the center of the loop
-
Salary Performance, Performance Salary
The more salary I get
The better I perform
The better I perform
+
The more salary I get
Salary + Performance
The more salary I get +
The better I perform
Tired Sleep, Sleep Tired
The more I sleep The less tired I am
The more tired I am The less tired I am
The more I sleep The less I sleep
The less I sleep The more tired I am
Tired - Sleep
-
There are systems which have more than one
feedback loop within them
A particular loop in a system of more than one
loop is most responsible for the overall
behavior of that system
The dominating loop might shift over time
When a feedback loop is within another, one
loop must dominate
Stable conditions will exist when negative
loops dominate positive loops
+ +
Birth rate + Polulation - Death rate
+ -
Evaporation clouds rain amount of water
evaporation …
Sunshine
+
- + +
Earth’s A mount of
-
- temperature Evaporation water on earth
+
+ + + -
+
Clouds Rain
+
Items that affect other items in the system but
are not themselves affected by anything in the
system
Arrows are drawn from these items but there are
no arrows drawn to these items
+
Sunlight reaching Density of plants
-
each plant
-
Sunlight +
Systems often respond sluggishly
From the example below, once the trees are planted,
the harvest rate can be ‘0’ until the trees grow enough
to harvest
delay
+
# of growing trees - Harvest rate
Planting rate -
+
Create a basic causal graph
Augment the causal graph with more
information
Convert the augmented causal graph
to a System Dynamics flow graph
Translate a System Dynamics flow
graph into DYNAMO programs or
equations
Simulation Model Design and Execution,
Fishwick, Prentice-Hall, 1995 (Textbook)
Introduction to Computer Simulation: A
system dynamics modeling approach, Nancy
Roberts et al, Addison-wesley, 1983
Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and
modeling for a complex world, John D.
Sterman, McGraw-Hill,2000
