Classification vs.

Prediction

Classification
predicts categorical class labels (discrete or nominal)
classifies data (constructs a model) based on the
training set and the values (class labels) in a
classifying attribute and uses it in classifying new
data
Prediction
models continuous-valued functions, i.e., predicts
unknown or missing values
Typical applications
Credit approval
Target marketing
Medical diagnosis
Fraud detection

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

ClassificationA Two-Step
Process

Model construction: describing a set of predetermined classes

Each tuple/sample is assumed to belong to a predefined
class, as determined by the class label attribute
The set of tuples used for model construction is training
set
The model is represented as classification rules, decision
trees, or mathematical formulae
Model usage: for classifying future or unknown objects
Estimate accuracy of the model
The known label of test sample is compared with the
classified result from the model
Accuracy rate is the percentage of test set samples
that are correctly classified by the model
Test set is independent of training set, otherwise overfitting will occur
If the accuracy is acceptable, use the model to classify
data tuples whose class labels are not known

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Process (1): Model

Construction
Classification
Algorithms

Training
Data

NAME
Mike
Mary
Bill
Jim
Dave
Anne

RANK
YEARS TENURED
Assistant Prof
3
no
Assistant Prof
7
yes
Professor
2
yes
Associate Prof
7
yes
Assistant Prof
6
no
Associate Prof
3
no

May 23, 2016

Classifier
(Model)

IF rank = professor
OR years > 6
THEN tenured = yes

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Process (2): Using the Model in

Prediction

Classifier
Testing
Data

Unseen Data
(Jeff, Professor, 4)

NAME
Tom
Merlisa
George
Joseph
May 23, 2016

RANK
YEARS TENURED
Assistant Prof
2
no
Associate Prof
7
no
Professor
5
yes
Assistant Prof
7
yes
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Tenured?

Supervised vs. Unsupervised

Learning

Supervised learning (classification)

Supervision: The training data (observations,

measurements, etc.) are accompanied by
labels indicating the class of the observations

New data is classified based on the training set

Unsupervised learning (clustering)

The class labels of training data is unknown

Given a set of measurements, observations,

etc. with the aim of establishing the existence
of classes or clusters in the data

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Issues: Data Preparation

Data cleaning

Relevance analysis (feature selection)

Preprocess data in order to reduce noise and

handle missing values
Remove the irrelevant or redundant attributes

Data transformation

Generalize and/or normalize data

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Issues: Evaluating Classification

Methods

Accuracy
classifier accuracy: predicting class label
predictor accuracy: guessing value of predicted
attributes
Speed
time to construct the model (training time)
time to use the model (classification/prediction time)
Robustness: handling noise and missing values
Scalability: efficiency in disk-resident databases
Interpretability
understanding and insight provided by the model
Other measures, e.g., goodness of rules, such as
decision tree size or compactness of classification rules

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Decision Tree Induction: Training

Dataset

This
follows
an
example
of
Quinlans
ID3
(Playing
Tennis)
May 23, 2016

age
<=30
<=30
3140
>40
>40
>40
3140
<=30
<=30
>40
<=30
3140
3140
>40

income student credit_rating

high
no fair
high
no excellent
high
no fair
medium
no fair
low
yes fair
low
yes excellent
low
yes excellent
medium
no fair
low
yes fair
medium
yes fair
medium
yes excellent
medium
no excellent
high
yes fair
medium
no excellent
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

buys_computer
no
no
yes
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
no
8

Output: A Decision Tree for

buys_computer

age?
<=30

31..40
overcast

student?
no
no

May 23, 2016

>40
credit rating?

yes

excellent

yes
yes

no

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

fair
yes

Algorithm for Decision Tree

Induction

Basic algorithm (a greedy algorithm)

Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divide-andconquer manner

At start, all the training examples are at the root

Attributes are categorical (if continuous-valued, they are

discretized in advance)

Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected

attributes

Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or

statistical measure (e.g., information gain)

Conditions for stopping partitioning

All samples for a given node belong to the same class

There are no remaining attributes for further partitioning

majority voting is employed for classifying the leaf

There are no samples left

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

10

Attribute Selection Measure:

Information Gain (ID3/C4.5)

Select the attribute with the highest information

gain
Let pi be the probability that an arbitrary tuple in D
belongs to class Ci, estimated by |Ci, D|/|D|
m
Expected information (entropy) needed
to classify
Info( D) pi log 2 ( pi )
a tuple in D:
i 1

| D j | D into v
Information needed (after using
A
to
split
Info A ( D)
I (D j )
partitions) to classify D:
j 1 | D |
v

Information gained by branching on attribute A

May 23, 2016

Gain(A) Info(D) Info A(D)

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

11

Attribute Selection: Information Gain

5
4
Class P: buys_computer =
Infoage ( D )
I (2,3)
I (4,0)
14
14
yes
Class N: buys_computer
5
9
9
5
5
=
Info( D) I (9,5) log 2 ( ) log 2 ( ) 0.940

I (3,2) 0.694
no
14
14 14
14
14

5
I (2,3) means age <=30 has
14 5 out of 14 samples, with 2
yeses and 3 nos. Hence
age
<=30
<=30
3140
>40
>40
>40
3140
<=30
<=30
>40
<=30
3140
3140
May
>40

income student credit_rating

high
no
fair
high
no
excellent
high
no
fair
medium
no
fair
low
yes
fair
low
yes
excellent
low
yes
excellent
medium
no
fair
low
yes
fair
medium
yes
fair
medium
yes
excellent
medium
no
excellent
high
yes
fair
23,
2016
medium
no
excellent

Gain(age) Info( D) Infoage ( D ) 0.246

buys_computer
no
no
yes
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Data no
Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Similarly,

Gain(income) 0.029
Gain( student ) 0.151
Gain(credit _ rating ) 0.048
12

Computing Information-Gain for

Continuous-Value Attributes

Let attribute A be a continuous-valued attribute

Must determine the best split point for A

Sort the value A in increasing order

Typically, the midpoint between each pair of adjacent

values is considered as a possible split point

(ai+ai+1)/2 is the midpoint between the values of a i and ai+1

The point with the minimum expected information

requirement for A is selected as the split-point for A

Split:

D1 is the set of tuples in D satisfying A split-point,

and D2 is the set of tuples in D satisfying A > splitpoint

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

13

Gain Ratio for Attribute Selection

(C4.5)

Information gain measure is biased towards

attributes with a large number of values

C4.5 (a successor of ID3) uses gain ratio to overcome

the problem (normalization to information gain)
v

SplitInfo A ( D)
j 1

|D|

log 2 (

| Dj |
|D|

GainRatio(A) = Gain(A)/SplitInfo(A)

Ex.

| Dj |

SplitInfo A ( D )

4
4
6
6
4
4
log 2 ( ) log 2 ( ) log 2 ( ) 0.926
14
14 14
14 14
14

gain_ratio(income) = 0.029/0.926 = 0.031

The attribute with the maximum gain ratio is

selected as the splitting attribute

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

14

Gini index (CART, IBM

IntelligentMiner)

If a data set D contains examples from n classes, gini index,

gini(D) is defined as
n

gini( D) 1 p 2j
j 1

where pj is the relative frequency of class j in D

If a data set D is split on A into two subsets D1 and D2, the gini
index gini(D) is defined as

gini A ( D)

|D1|
|D |
gini( D1) 2 gini( D 2)
|D|
|D|

Reduction in Impurity:

gini( A) gini( D) giniA ( D)

The attribute provides the smallest ginisplit(D) (or the largest

reduction in impurity) is chosen to split the node (need to
enumerate all the possible splitting points for each attribute)

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

15

Gini index (CART, IBM

IntelligentMiner)

Ex. D has 9 tuples in buys_computer = yes and 5 in no

2

9
5
gini ( D) 1

0.459
14
14
Suppose the attribute income partitions D into 10 in D 1: {low,
10
4
medium} and 4 in Dgini
2
( D)
Gini ( D )
Gini ( D )
income{low , medium}

14

14

but gini{medium,high} is 0.30 and thus the best since it is the lowest

All attributes are assumed continuous-valued

May need other tools, e.g., clustering, to get the possible split
values

Can be modified for categorical attributes

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

16

Comparing Attribute Selection

Measures

The three measures, in general, return good results

but

Information gain:

Gain ratio:

biased towards multivalued attributes

tends to prefer unbalanced splits in which one
partition is much smaller than the others

Gini index:

biased to multivalued attributes

has difficulty when # of classes is large

May 23, 2016

tends to favor tests that result in equal-sized

partitions and purity in both partitions
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

17

Other Attribute Selection

Measures

CHAID: a popular decision tree algorithm, measure based on 2 test for

independence

C-SEP: performs better than info. gain and gini index in certain cases

G-statistics: has a close approximation to 2 distribution

MDL (Minimal Description Length) principle (i.e., the simplest solution

is preferred):

Multivariate splits (partition based on multiple variable combinations)

The best tree as the one that requires the fewest # of bits to both
(1) encode the tree, and (2) encode the exceptions to the tree
CART: finds multivariate splits based on a linear comb. of attrs.

Which attribute selection measure is the best?

Most give good results, none is significantly superior than others

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

18

Overfitting and Tree Pruning

Overfitting: An induced tree may overfit the training data

Too many branches, some may reflect anomalies due to noise or

outliers

Poor accuracy for unseen samples

Two approaches to avoid overfitting

Prepruning: Halt tree construction earlydo not split a node if this

would result in the goodness measure falling below a threshold

Difficult to choose an appropriate threshold

Postpruning: Remove branches from a fully grown treeget a

sequence of progressively pruned trees

Use a set of data different from the training data to decide

which is the best pruned tree

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

19

Enhancements to Basic Decision Tree

Induction

Allow for continuous-valued attributes

Dynamically define new discrete-valued attributes

that partition the continuous attribute value into a
discrete set of intervals

Handle missing attribute values

Assign the most common value of the attribute

Assign probability to each of the possible values

Attribute construction

Create new attributes based on existing ones that

are sparsely represented

This reduces fragmentation, repetition, and

replication

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

20

Classification in Large Databases

Classificationa classical problem extensively studied

by statisticians and machine learning researchers

Scalability: Classifying data sets with millions of

examples and hundreds of attributes with reasonable
speed

Why decision tree induction in data mining?

relatively faster learning speed (than other
classification methods)
convertible to simple and easy to understand
classification rules
can use SQL queries for accessing databases
comparable classification accuracy with other
methods

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

21

Scalable Decision Tree Induction

Methods

SLIQ (EDBT96 Mehta et al.)

Builds an index for each attribute and only class list
and the current attribute list reside in memory
SPRINT (VLDB96 J. Shafer et al.)
Constructs an attribute list data structure
PUBLIC (VLDB98 Rastogi & Shim)
Integrates tree splitting and tree pruning: stop
growing the tree earlier
RainForest (VLDB98 Gehrke, Ramakrishnan & Ganti)
Builds an AVC-list (attribute, value, class label)
BOAT (PODS99 Gehrke, Ganti, Ramakrishnan & Loh)
Uses bootstrapping to create several small samples

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

22

Bayesian Classification:
Why?

A statistical classifier: performs probabilistic

prediction, i.e., predicts class membership
probabilities
Foundation: Based on Bayes Theorem.
Performance: A simple Bayesian classifier, nave
Bayesian classifier, has comparable performance with
decision tree and selected neural network classifiers
Incremental: Each training example can incrementally
increase/decrease the probability that a hypothesis is
correct prior knowledge can be combined with
observed data
Standard: Even when Bayesian methods are
computationally intractable, they can provide a
standard of optimal decision making against which
other methods can be measured

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

23

Bayesian Theorem: Basics

Let X be a data sample (evidence): class label is

unknown

Let H be a hypothesis that X belongs to class C

Classification is to determine P(H|X), the probability that

the hypothesis holds given the observed data sample X

P(H) (prior probability), the initial probability

E.g., X will buy computer, regardless of age, income,

P(X): probability that sample data is observed

P(X|H) (posteriori probability), the probability of observing

the sample X, given that the hypothesis holds

E.g., Given that X will buy computer, the prob. that X is

31..40, medium income

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

24

Bayesian Theorem

Given training data X, posteriori probability of a

hypothesis H, P(H|X), follows the Bayes theorem

P( H | X) P(X | H )P(H )
P(X)

Informally, this can be written as

posteriori = likelihood x prior/evidence

Predicts X belongs to C2 iff the probability P(Ci|X) is

the highest among all the P(Ck|X) for all the k classes

Practical difficulty: require initial knowledge of many

probabilities, significant computational cost

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

25

Towards Nave Bayesian

Classifier

Let D be a training set of tuples and their associated

class labels, and each tuple is represented by an n-D
attribute vector X = (x1, x2, , xn)

Suppose there are m classes C1, C2, , Cm.

Classification is to derive the maximum posteriori,
i.e., the maximal P(Ci|X)
This can be derived from Bayes theorem

P(X | C )P(C )
i
i
P(C | X)
i
P(X)

Since P(X) is constant for all classes, only

P(C | X) P(X | C )P(C )
i
i
i
needs to be maximized

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

26

Derivation of Nave Bayes

Classifier

A simplified assumption: attributes are conditionally

independent (i.e., no dependence relation between
attributes):
n
P ( X | C i ) P ( x | C i ) P ( x | C i ) P ( x | C i ) ... P( x | C i )
k
1
2
n
k 1

This greatly reduces the computation cost: Only

counts the class distribution
If Ak is categorical, P(xk|Ci) is the # of tuples in Ci
having value xk for Ak divided by |Ci, D| (# of tuples of
Ci in D)
If Ak is continous-valued, P(xk|Ci) is usually computed
based on Gaussian distribution with a mean
( x ) and

1
standard deviation
g ( x, , )
e 2
2

and P(xk|Ci) is
May 23, 2016

P ( X | C i ) g ( xk , C i , C i )
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

27

Nave Bayesian Classifier: Training

Dataset

Class:
C1:buys_computer =
yes
C2:buys_computer = no
Data sample
X = (age <=30,
Income = medium,
Student = yes
Credit_rating = Fair)

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

28

Nave Bayesian Classifier: An

Example

P(Ci):

Compute P(X|Ci) for each class

P(buys_computer = yes) = 9/14 = 0.643

P(buys_computer = no) = 5/14= 0.357

P(age = <=30 | buys_computer = yes) = 2/9 = 0.222

P(age = <= 30 | buys_computer = no) = 3/5 = 0.6
P(income = medium | buys_computer = yes) = 4/9 = 0.444
P(income = medium | buys_computer = no) = 2/5 = 0.4
P(student = yes | buys_computer = yes) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(student = yes | buys_computer = no) = 1/5 = 0.2
P(credit_rating = fair | buys_computer = yes) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(credit_rating = fair | buys_computer = no) = 2/5 = 0.4

X = (age <= 30 , income = medium, student = yes, credit_rating = fair)

P(X|Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = yes) = 0.222 x 0.444 x 0.667 x 0.667 = 0.044

P(X|buys_computer = no) = 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.4 = 0.019
P(X|Ci)*P(Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = yes) * P(buys_computer = yes) = 0.028
P(X|buys_computer = no) * P(buys_computer = no) = 0.007
Therefore, X belongs to class (buys_computer = yes)
May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

29

Avoiding the 0-Probability

Problem

Nave Bayesian prediction requires each conditional prob. be

non-zero. Otherwise, the predicted prob. will be zero
n
P( X | C i)
P( x k | C i)
k 1

Ex. Suppose a dataset with 1000 tuples, income=low (0),

income= medium (990), and income = high (10),
Use Laplacian correction (or Laplacian estimator)
Adding 1 to each case
Prob(income = low) = 1/1003
Prob(income = medium) = 991/1003
Prob(income = high) = 11/1003
The corrected prob. estimates are close to their
uncorrected counterparts

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

30

Nave Bayesian Classifier:

Comments

Advantages
Easy to implement
Good results obtained in most of the cases
Disadvantages
Assumption: class conditional independence, therefore
loss of accuracy
Practically, dependencies exist among variables
E.g., hospitals: patients: Profile: age, family history, etc.
Symptoms: fever, cough etc., Disease: lung cancer, diabetes,
etc.
Dependencies among these cannot be modeled by Nave
Bayesian Classifier

How to deal with these dependencies?

Bayesian Belief Networks

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

31

Using IF-THEN Rules for Classification

Represent the knowledge in the form of IF-THEN rules

R: IF age = youth AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes

Rule antecedent/precondition vs. rule consequent

Assessment of a rule: coverage and accuracy

ncovers = # of tuples covered by R

ncorrect = # of tuples correctly classified by R

coverage(R) = ncovers /|D| /* D: training data set */

accuracy(R) = ncorrect / ncovers

If more than one rule is triggered, need conflict resolution

Size ordering: assign the highest priority to the triggering rules that
has the toughest requirement (i.e., with the most attribute test)

Class-based ordering: decreasing order of prevalence or

misclassification cost per class

Rule-based ordering (decision list): rules are organized into one long
priority list, according to some measure of rule quality or by experts

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

32

Rule Extraction from a Decision Tree

age?

Rules are easier to understand than large trees

One rule is created for each path from the root
to a leaf

<=30

31..40

student?
no

Each attribute-value pair along a path forms a no

conjunction: the leaf holds the class prediction

>40

credit rating?

yes

yes

excellent

yes

Rules are mutually exclusive and exhaustive

Example: Rule extraction from our buys_computer decision-tree

yes

no

IF age = young AND student = no

THEN buys_computer = no

IF age = young AND student = yes

THEN buys_computer = yes

IF age = mid-age

fair

THEN buys_computer = yes

IF age = old AND credit_rating = excellent THEN buys_computer = yes

IF age = young AND credit_rating = fair
May 23, 2016

THEN buys_computer = no

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

33

Rule Extraction from the Training

Data

Sequential covering algorithm: Extracts rules directly from training

data

Typical sequential covering algorithms: FOIL, AQ, CN2, RIPPER

Rules are learned sequentially, each for a given class C i will cover
many tuples of Ci but none (or few) of the tuples of other classes

Steps:

Rules are learned one at a time

Each time a rule is learned, the tuples covered by the rules are
removed

The process repeats on the remaining tuples unless termination

condition, e.g., when no more training examples or when the
quality of a rule returned is below a user-specified threshold

Comp. w. decision-tree induction: learning a set of rules

simultaneously

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

34

Discriminative Classifiers

Advantages
prediction accuracy is generally high

robust, works when training examples contain errors

fast evaluation of the learned target function

As compared to Bayesian methods in general

Bayesian networks are normally slow

Criticism
long training time
difficult to understand the learned function (weights)

Bayesian networks can be used easily for pattern discovery

not easy to incorporate domain knowledge

Easy in the form of priors on the data or distributions

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

35

Classification by
Backpropagation

Backpropagation: A neural network learning algorithm

Started by psychologists and neurobiologists to develop

and test computational analogues of neurons

A neural network: A set of connected input/output units

where each connection has a weight associated with it

During the learning phase, the network learns by

adjusting the weights so as to be able to predict the
correct class label of the input tuples

Also referred to as connectionist learning due to the

connections between units

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

36

Neural Network as a Classifier

Weakness

Long training time

Require a number of parameters typically best determined
empirically, e.g., the network topology or ``structure."
Poor interpretability: Difficult to interpret the symbolic
meaning behind the learned weights and of ``hidden units" in
the network

Strength

High tolerance to noisy data

Ability to classify untrained patterns
Well-suited for continuous-valued inputs and outputs
Successful on a wide array of real-world data
Algorithms are inherently parallel
Techniques have recently been developed for the extraction of
rules from trained neural networks

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

37

SVMSupport Vector Machines

A new classification method for both linear and

nonlinear data

It uses a nonlinear mapping to transform the original

training data into a higher dimension

With the new dimension, it searches for the linear

optimal separating hyperplane (i.e., decision
boundary)

With an appropriate nonlinear mapping to a sufficiently

high dimension, data from two classes can always be
separated by a hyperplane

SVM finds this hyperplane using support vectors

(essential training tuples) and margins (defined by
the support vectors)

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

38

SVMHistory and Applications

Vapnik and colleagues (1992)groundwork from

Vapnik & Chervonenkis statistical learning theory in
1960s

Features: training can be slow but accuracy is high

owing to their ability to model complex nonlinear
decision boundaries (margin maximization )

Used both for classification and prediction

Applications:

handwritten digit recognition, object recognition,

speaker identification, benchmarking time-series
prediction tests

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

39

SVMGeneral Philosophy

Small Margin

Large Margin
Support Vectors

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

40

Why Is SVM Effective on High Dimensional

Data?

The complexity of trained classifier is characterized by the # of

support vectors rather than the dimensionality of the data

The support vectors are the essential or critical training examples

they lie closest to the decision boundary (MMH)

If all other training examples are removed and the training is

repeated, the same separating hyperplane would be found

The number of support vectors found can be used to compute an

(upper) bound on the expected error rate of the SVM classifier,
which is independent of the data dimensionality

Thus, an SVM with a small number of support vectors can have

good generalization, even when the dimensionality of the data is
high

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

41

SVM vs. Neural Network

SVM

Relatively new concept

Deterministic algorithm

Nice Generalization
properties

Hard to learn learned

in batch mode using
quadratic programming
techniques

Using kernels can learn

very complex functions

May 23, 2016

Neural Network
Relatively old
Nondeterministic
algorithm
Generalizes well but
doesnt have strong
mathematical
foundation
Can easily be learned in
incremental fashion
To learn complex
functionsuse
multilayer perceptron
(not that trivial)

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

42

Associative Classification

Associative classification

Association rules are generated and analyzed for use in classification

Search for strong associations between frequent patterns

(conjunctions of attribute-value pairs) and class labels

Classification: Based on evaluating a set of rules in the form of

P1 ^ p2 ^ pl Aclass = C (conf, sup)

Why effective?

It explores highly confident associations among multiple attributes

and may overcome some constraints introduced by decision-tree
induction, which considers only one attribute at a time

In many studies, associative classification has been found to be more

accurate than some traditional classification methods, such as C4.5

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

43

Typical Associative Classification

Methods

CBA (Classification By Association: Liu, Hsu & Ma, KDD98 )

Mine association possible rules in the form of

Build classifier: Organize rules according to decreasing

precedence based on confidence and then support

CMAR (Classification based on Multiple Association Rules: Li, Han, Pei, ICDM01 )

Cond-set (a set of attribute-value pairs) class label

Classification: Statistical analysis on multiple rules

CPAR (Classification based on Predictive Association Rules: Yin & Han, SDM03 )

Generation of predictive rules (FOIL-like analysis)

High efficiency, accuracy similar to CMAR

RCBT (Mining top-k covering rule groups for gene expression data, Cong et al.
SIGMOD05)

Explore high-dimensional classification, using top-k rule groups

Achieve high classification accuracy and high run-time efficiency

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

44

Lazy vs. Eager Learning

Lazy vs. eager learning

Lazy learning (e.g., instance-based learning): Simply
stores training data (or only minor processing) and
waits until it is given a test tuple
Eager learning (the above discussed methods): Given
a set of training set, constructs a classification model
before receiving new (e.g., test) data to classify
Lazy: less time in training but more time in predicting
Accuracy
Lazy method effectively uses a richer hypothesis
space since it uses many local linear functions to form
its implicit global approximation to the target function
Eager: must commit to a single hypothesis that covers
the entire instance space

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

45

The k-Nearest Neighbor

Algorithm

All instances correspond to points in the n-D

space
The nearest neighbor are defined in terms of
Euclidean distance, dist(X1, X2)
Target function could be discrete- or realvalued
For discrete-valued, k-NN returns the most
common value among the k training examples
nearest to xq
Vonoroi
diagram: the decision surface induced
_
by 1-NN
for_ a _typical set of training examples
_

_
_
May 23, 2016

.
+

+
xq

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

46

Case-Based Reasoning (CBR)

CBR: Uses a database of problem solutions to solve new problems

Store symbolic description (tuples or cases)not points in a Euclidean

space

Applications: Customer-service (product-related diagnosis), legal

ruling

Methodology

Instances represented by rich symbolic descriptions (e.g., function

graphs)

Search for similar cases, multiple retrieved cases may be combined

Tight coupling between case retrieval, knowledge-based reasoning,

and problem solving

Challenges

Find a good similarity metric

Indexing based on syntactic similarity measure, and when failure,

backtracking, and adapting to additional cases

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

47

Genetic Algorithms (GA)

Genetic Algorithm: based on an analogy to biological evolution

An initial population is created consisting of randomly generated

rules

Each rule is represented by a string of bits

E.g., if A1 and A2 then C2 can be encoded as 100

If an attribute has k > 2 values, k bits can be used

Based on the notion of survival of the fittest, a new population is

formed to consist of the fittest rules and their offsprings

The fitness of a rule is represented by its classification accuracy

on a set of training examples

Offsprings are generated by crossover and mutation

The process continues until a population P evolves when each rule

in P satisfies a prespecified threshold

Slow but easily parallelizable

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

48

Rough Set Approach

Rough sets are used to approximately or roughly

define equivalent classes

A rough set for a given class C is approximated by two sets:

a lower approximation (certain to be in C) and an upper
approximation (cannot be described as not belonging to C)

Finding the minimal subsets (reducts) of attributes for

feature reduction is NP-hard but a discernibility matrix
(which stores the differences between attribute values for
each pair of data tuples) is used to reduce the computation
intensity

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

49

Fuzzy Set
Approaches

Fuzzy logic uses truth values between 0.0 and 1.0 to

represent the degree of membership (such as using
fuzzy membership graph)
Attribute values are converted to fuzzy values
e.g., income is mapped into the discrete categories
{low, medium, high} with fuzzy values calculated
For a given new sample, more than one fuzzy value
may apply
Each applicable rule contributes a vote for
membership in the categories
Typically, the truth values for each predicted category
are summed, and these sums are combined

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

50

What Is Prediction?

(Numerical) prediction is similar to classification

construct a model
use model to predict continuous or ordered value for a given
input
Prediction is different from classification
Classification refers to predict categorical class label
Prediction models continuous-valued functions
Major method for prediction: regression
model the relationship between one or more independent or
predictor variables and a dependent or response variable
Regression analysis
Linear and multiple regression
Non-linear regression
Other regression methods: generalized linear model, Poisson
regression, log-linear models, regression trees

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51

Linear Regression

Linear regression: involves a response variable y and a single

predictor variable x
y = w 0 + w1 x
where w0 (y-intercept) and w1 (slope) are regression coefficients

Method of least squares: estimates the best-fitting straight line

| D|

w
1

(x
i 1

x )( yi y )

| D|

(x

x )2

w yw x
0
1

i 1
Multiple linear regression:
involves more than one predictor variable

Training data is of the form (X1, y1), (X2, y2),, (X|D|, y|D|)

Ex. For 2-D data, we may have: y = w 0 + w1 x1+ w2 x2

Solvable by extension of least square method or using SAS, SPlus

Many nonlinear functions can be transformed into the above

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Nonlinear Regression

Some nonlinear models can be modeled by a

polynomial function
A polynomial regression model can be transformed into
linear regression model. For example,
y = w 0 + w 1 x + w 2 x2 + w 3 x3
convertible to linear with new variables: x 2 = x2, x3= x3
y = w 0 + w 1 x + w 2 x2 + w 3 x3

Other functions, such as power function, can also be

transformed to linear model
Some models are intractable nonlinear (e.g., sum of
exponential terms)
possible to obtain least square estimates through
extensive calculation on more complex formulae

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

53

Other Regression-Based Models

Generalized linear model:

Foundation on which linear regression can be applied to

modeling categorical response variables

Variance of y is a function of the mean value of y, not a

constant

Logistic regression: models the prob. of some event occurring

as a linear function of a set of predictor variables

Poisson regression: models the data that exhibit a Poisson

distribution

Log-linear models: (for categorical data)

Approximate discrete multidimensional prob. distributions

Also useful for data compression and smoothing

Regression trees and model trees

Trees to predict continuous values rather than class labels

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54

Regression Trees and Model

Trees

Regression tree: proposed in CART system (Breiman et al. 1984)

CART: Classification And Regression Trees

Each leaf stores a continuous-valued prediction

It is the average value of the predicted attribute for the

training tuples that reach the leaf

Model tree: proposed by Quinlan (1992)

Each leaf holds a regression modela multivariate linear

equation for the predicted attribute

A more general case than regression tree

Regression and model trees tend to be more accurate than

linear regression when the data are not represented well by a
simple linear model

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55

Predictive Modeling in Multidimensional

Databases

Predictive modeling: Predict data values or construct

generalized linear models based on the database data
One can only predict value ranges or category distributions
Method outline:

Minimal generalization

Attribute relevance analysis

Generalized linear model construction

Prediction
Determine the major factors which influence the prediction
Data relevance analysis: uncertainty measurement,
entropy analysis, expert judgement, etc.
Multi-level prediction: drill-down and roll-up analysis

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Prediction: Numerical Data

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57

Prediction: Categorical Data

May 23, 2016

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58

Confusion Matrix Example

Predicted Label

Positive

Negative

Positive

True Positive
(TP)

False Negative
(FN)

Negative

False Positive
(FP)

True Negative
(TN)

Known Label

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59

Confusion Matrix
Measure

Formula

Precision

TP / (TP + FP)

Intuitive Meaning
The percentage of
positive predictions
that are correct.

TP / (TP + FN)

The percentage of
positive labeled
instances that were
predicted as positive.

Specificity

TN / (TN + FP)

The percentage of
negative labeled
instances that were
predicted as negative.

Accuracy

The percentage of
(TP + TN) / (TP + TN +
predictions that are
FP + FN)
correct.

Recall / Sensitivity

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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

60

Classifier Accuracy
Measures

classes

buy_computer =
yes

buy_computer =
no

total

recognition(%
)

buy_computer =
yes

6954

46

7000

99.34

buy_computer =
412
2588
3000
86.27
no of a classifier M, acc(M): percentage of test set tuples that are
Accuracy

correctly
model M
totalclassified by the
7366
2634
1000
95.52
Error rate (misclassification rate) of M = 1 acc(M) 0
Given m classes, CM , an entry in a confusion matrix, indicates # of
i,j
tuples in class i that are labeled by the classifier as class j
Alternative accuracy measures (e.g., for cancer diagnosis)
sensitivity = t-pos/pos
/* true positive recognition rate */
specificity = t-neg/neg
/* true negative recognition rate */
precision = t-pos/(t-pos + f-pos)
accuracy = sensitivity * pos/(pos + neg) + specificity * neg/(pos + neg)
This model can also be used for cost-benefit analysis
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61

Predictor Error Measures

Measure predictor accuracy: measure how far off the predicted

value is from the actual known value

Loss function: measures the error betw. yi and the predicted value
yi

Absolute error: | yi yi|

Squared error: (yi yi)2

Test error (generalization derror): the average loss over thed test set
2

Mean absolute error:

| y
i 1

yi ' |

Relative absolute error:

| y
i 1
d

| y
i 1

i 1

yi ' )

d
( yi yi ' ) 2
d

Mean squared error:

(y

yi ' |

Relative squared error:

y|

i 1
d

(y
i 1

y)2

The mean squared-error exaggerates the presence of outliers

Popularly use (square) root mean-square error, similarly, root
relative squared error
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62

Evaluating the Accuracy of a

Classifier or Predictor (I)

Holdout method
Given data is randomly partitioned into two independent sets
Training set (e.g., 2/3) for model construction

Test set (e.g., 1/3) for accuracy estimation

Random sampling: a variation of holdout
Repeat holdout k times, accuracy = avg. of the accuracies
obtained
Cross-validation (k-fold, where k = 10 is most popular)
Randomly partition the data into k mutually exclusive
subsets, each approximately equal size
At i-th iteration, use D as test set and others as training set
i

Leave-one-out: k folds where k = # of tuples, for small sized

data
Stratified cross-validation: folds are stratified so that class
dist. in each fold is approx. the same as that in the initial data

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63

Evaluating the Accuracy of a

Classifier or Predictor (II)

Bootstrap

Works well with small data sets

Samples the given training tuples uniformly with replacement

i.e., each time a tuple is selected, it is equally likely to be

selected again and re-added to the training set

Several boostrap methods, and a common one is .632 boostrap

Suppose we are given a data set of d tuples. The data set is sampled
d times, with replacement, resulting in a training set of d samples.
The data tuples that did not make it into the training set end up
forming the test set. About 63.2% of the original data will end up in
the bootstrap, and the remaining 36.8% will form the test set (since (1
1/d)d e-1 = 0.368)

Repeat the sampling procedue k times, overall accuracy of the

k
model:
acc( M ) (0.632 acc( M i ) test _ set 0.368 acc( M i ) train _ set )
i 1

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64

Ensemble Methods: Increasing the

Accuracy

Ensemble methods
Use a combination of models to increase accuracy
Combine a series of k learned models, M , M , , M ,
1
2
k
with the aim of creating an improved model M*
Popular ensemble methods
Bagging: averaging the prediction over a collection of
classifiers
Boosting: weighted vote with a collection of
classifiers
Ensemble: combining a set of heterogeneous
classifiers
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Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

65

Bagging: Boostrap
Aggregation

Analogy: Diagnosis based on multiple doctors majority vote

Training
Given a set D of d tuples, at each iteration i, a training set D of
i
d tuples is sampled with replacement from D (i.e., boostrap)
A classifier model M is learned for each training set D
i
i
Classification: classify an unknown sample X
Each classifier M returns its class prediction
i
The bagged classifier M* counts the votes and assigns the class
with the most votes to X
Prediction: can be applied to the prediction of continuous values by
taking the average value of each prediction for a given test tuple
Accuracy
Often significant better than a single classifier derived from D
For noise data: not considerably worse, more robust
Proved improved accuracy in prediction

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Boosting

Analogy: Consult several doctors, based on a combination of weighted

diagnosesweight assigned based on the previous diagnosis accuracy

How boosting works?

Weights are assigned to each training tuple

A series of k classifiers is iteratively learned

After a classifier Mi is learned, the weights are updated to allow the

subsequent classifier, Mi+1, to pay more attention to the training
tuples that were misclassified by Mi
The final M* combines the votes of each individual classifier, where
the weight of each classifier's vote is a function of its accuracy

The boosting algorithm can be extended for the prediction of

continuous values

Comparing with bagging: boosting tends to achieve greater accuracy,

but it also risks overfitting the model to misclassified data

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67

Adaboost (Freund and Schapire,

1997)

Given a set of d class-labeled tuples, (X1, y1), , (Xd, yd)

Initially, all the weights of tuples are set the same (1/d)
Generate k classifiers in k rounds. At round i,

Tuples from D are sampled (with replacement) to form a

training set Di of the same size

Each tuples chance of being selected is based on its weight

A classification model Mi is derived from Di

Its error rate is calculated using Di as a test set

If a tuple is misclssified, its weight is increased, o.w. it is

decreased
Error rate: err(Xj) is the misclassification error of tuple Xj.
Classifier Mi error rate is the sum of the weights of the
misclassified tuples: d
error ( M i ) w j err ( X j )
j

log

The weight of classifier Mis vote is

May 23, 2016

1 error ( M i )
error ( M i )

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

68

Model Selection: ROC

Curves

ROC (Receiver Operating

Characteristics) curves: for visual
comparison of classification models

Originated from signal detection theory

Shows the trade-off between the true

positive rate and the false positive rate

The area under the ROC curve is a

measure of the accuracy of the model

Rank the test tuples in decreasing order:

the one that is most likely to belong to
the positive class appears at the top of
the list

The closer to the diagonal line (i.e., the

closer the area is to 0.5), the less
accurate is the model

May 23, 2016

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques

Vertical axis represents

the true positive rate
Horizontal axis rep. the
false positive rate
The plot also shows a
diagonal line
A model with perfect
accuracy will have an
area of 1.0
69

Summary (I)

Classification and prediction are two forms of data analysis that

can be used to extract models describing important data classes
or to predict future data trends.

Effective and scalable methods have been developed for decision

trees induction, Naive Bayesian classification, Bayesian belief
network, rule-based classifier, Backpropagation, Support Vector
Machine (SVM), associative classification, nearest neighbor
classifiers, and case-based reasoning, and other classification
methods such as genetic algorithms, rough set and fuzzy set
approaches.

Linear, nonlinear, and generalized linear models of regression can

be used for prediction. Many nonlinear problems can be converted
to linear problems by performing transformations on the predictor
variables. Regression trees and model trees are also used for
prediction.

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70

Summary (II)

Stratified k-fold cross-validation is a recommended method for

accuracy estimation. Bagging and boosting can be used to
increase overall accuracy by learning and combining a series of
individual models.

Significance tests and ROC curves are useful for model selection

There have been numerous comparisons of the different

classification and prediction methods, and the matter remains a
research topic

No single method has been found to be superior over all others for
all data sets

Issues such as accuracy, training time, robustness, interpretability,

and scalability must be considered and can involve trade-offs,
further complicating the quest for an overall superior method

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71