Forecasting
Chapter 13
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How Forecasting
fits the Operations Management
Philosophy
Operations As a Competitive
Weapon
Operations Strategy
Project Management
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Process Strategy
Process Analysis
Process Performance and Quality
Constraint Management
Process Layout
Lean Systems
Supply Chain Strategy
Location
Inventory Management
Forecasting
Sales and Operations Planning
Resource Planning
Scheduling
Forecasting at Unilever
Customer demand planning (CDP), which is critical
to managing value chains, begins with accurate
forecasts.
Unilever has a state-of-the-art CDP system that
blends historical shipment data with promotional data
and current order data.
Statistical forecasts are adjusted with planned
promotion predictions.
Forecasts are frequently reviewed and adjusted with
point of sale data.
This has enabled Unilever to reduce its inventory
and improved its customer service.
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Demand Patterns
Time Series: The repeated observations of demand for a
service or product in their order of occurrence.
There are five basic patterns of most time series.
a. Horizontal. The fluctuation of data around a constant mean.
b. Trend. The systematic increase or decrease in the mean of
the series over time.
c. Seasonal. A repeatable pattern of increases or decreases in
demand, depending on the time of day, week, month, or
season.
d. Cyclical. The less predictable gradual increases or decreases
over longer periods of time (years or decades).
e. Random. The unforecastable variation in demand.
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Demand Patterns
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Horizontal
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Designing the
Forecast System
Deciding what to forecast
Level of aggregation.
Units of measure.
Choosing the type of forecasting
method:
Qualitative methods
Judgment
Quantitative methods
Causal
Time-series
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Judgment Methods
Sales force estimates: The forecasts that are compiled from
estimates of future demands made periodically by members of
a companys sales force.
Executive opinion: A forecasting method in which the
opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more
managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast.
Executive opinion can also be used for technological
forecasting to keep abreast of the latest advances in
technology.
Market research: A systematic approach to determine
external consumer interest in a service or product by creating
and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys.
Delphi method: A process of gaining consensus from a group
of experts while maintaining their anonymity.
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Guidelines for Using
Judgment Forecasts
Judgment forecasting is clearly needed when no
quantitative data are available to use quantitative
forecasting approaches.
Guidelines for the use of judgment to adjust
quantitative forecasts to improve forecast quality
are as follows:
1. Adjust quantitative forecasts when they tend to be
inaccurate and the decision maker has important
contextual knowledge.
2. Make adjustments to quantitative forecasts to compensate
for specific events, such as advertising campaigns, the
actions of competitors, or international developments.
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Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Causal methods are used when historical data are
available and the relationship between the factor to
be forecasted and other external or internal factors
can be identified.
Linear regression: A causal method in which one
variable (the dependent variable) is related to one or
more independent variables by a linear equation.
Dependent variable: The variable that one wants to
forecast.
Independent variables: Variables that are assumed
to affect the dependent variable and thereby cause
the results observed in the past.
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Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Dependent variable
Deviation,
Estimate of or error
Y from
regression
equation
Regression
equation:
Y = a + bX
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = Y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line
Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
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Linear Regression
Example 13.1
The following are sales and advertising data for the past 5 months for
brass door hinges. The marketing manager says that next month the
company will spend $1,750 on advertising for the product. Use linear
regression to develop an equation and a forecast for this product.
Month
Sales
(000 units)
Advertising
(000 $)
1
2
3
4
5
264
116
165
101
209
2.5
1.3
1.4
1.0
2.0
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We use the computer to determine
the best values of a, b, the correlation
coefficient (r), the coefficient of
determination (r2), and the standard
error of the estimate (syx).
a =
b =
r =
r2 =
syx=
8.135
109.229X
0.98
0.96
15.603
Linear Regression Line for
Example 13.1
Sales (thousands of units)
300
250
200
Y = a + bX
Y = 8.135 + 109.229X
150
100
50
a =
b =
r =
r2 =
syx=
8.135
109.229X
0.98
0.96
15.603
|
|
|
|
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Forecast for Month 6: X = $1750, Y = 8.135 + 109.229(1.75) = 183,016
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Time Series Methods
Naive forecast: A time-series method whereby the
forecast for the next period equals the demand for
the current period, or Forecast = Dt
Simple moving average method: A time-series
method used to estimate the average of a demand
time series by averaging the demand for the n most
recent time periods.
It removes the effects of random fluctuation and is most
useful when demand has no pronounced trend or seasonal
influences.
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Moving Average Method
Example 13.2
a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for
the arrival of medical clinic patients in week 4.
The numbers of arrivals for the past 3 weeks were:
Week
Patient
Arrivals
1
2
3
400
380
411
b. If the actual number of patient arrivals in week
4 is 415, what is the forecast error for week 4?
c. What is the forecast for week 5?
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Application 13.1a Moving Average Method
F5
D4 D3 D2 790 810 740
780
3
3
780 customer arrivals
F6
D 5 D4 D3 805 790 810
801.667
3
3
802 customer arrivals
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Weighted Moving Averages
Weighted moving average method: A timeseries method in which each historical
demand in the average can have its own
weight; the sum of the weights equals 1.0.
Ft+1 = W1Dt + W2Dt-1 + + WnDt-n+1
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Application 13.1b Weighted Moving Average
F5 W1D 4 W 2 D 3 W 3 D2 0.50790 0.30810 0.20740 786
786 customer arrivals
F6 W1D5 W 2 D4 W 3 D3 0.50805 0.30790 0.20810 801.5
802 customer arrivals
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Some Principles for the Forecasting
Process
Better processes yield better forecasts.
Demand forecasting is being done in virtually every company.
The challenge is to do it better than the competition.
Better forecasts result in better customer service and lower
costs, as well as better relationships with suppliers and
customers.
The forecast can and must make sense based on the big
picture, economic outlook, market share, and so on.
The best way to improve forecast accuracy is to focus on
reducing forecast error.
Bias is the worst kind of forecast error; strive for zero bias.
Whenever possible, forecast at higher, aggregate levels.
Forecast in detail only where necessary.
Far more can be gained by people collaborating and
communicating well than by using the most advanced
2007forecasting
Pearson Educationtechnique or model.
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