PROBABILITY
Prof. Neha Taneja
PROBABILITY
What is the probability that I will score highest in
Stats paper?
What is the probability that I will get selected in
EMC?
What is the probability that I will be caught using
mobile in class?
What is the probability that time table will change
today?
What is the probability that mam will give free
lecture today?
PROBABILITY TERMINOLOGY
Random Experiment
The
outcome is not perfectly predictable
All possible outcomes can be specified in advance.
Experiment can be repeated
Random Variation
Variation among experimental outcomes caused by
uncontrolled factors.
PROBABILITY TERMINOLOGY
Sample Space
Set of all possible outcomes of Random Experiment
Condition-No
two or more outcomes can occur
simultaneously
Event
One or more possible outcomes of an experiment
PROBABILITY TERMINOLOGY
Mutually Exclusive Events
If one occurs, other cannot occur at the same time.
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Set
of all possible events resulting from experiment.
Union of these events-??
PROBABILITY TERMINOLOGY
Independent Event:
Occurrence of one event does not affect and is not affected
by occurrence of other.
Student(B/G), Speaks English, Ahmedabad
Dependent Event:
Occurrence of one event does has some impact on the
occurrence of other.
Speaks English/NRI
Equally Likely Event:
Each event has equal chance of occurring
PROBABILITY
Probability of any outcome is the proportion of
times outcome would occur in a very long series of
repetition
Probability is long-term frequency
Likelihood
Chance
Possibility
Odds of occurrence of uncertain event
0-1
RULES OF PROBABILITY
0 P(Ai) 1
P(S)=P(A1)+ P(A2)+ P(A3)+ P(A4)+. +P(An)
P(A)=1-P(A)
COUNTING RULES-No. of
OUTCOMES
Multistep Experiments
No.
of ways for k stage experiment = n1*n2*n3*.nk
Combination
n
r
Permutation
n
r
n!
( n r )! r!
n!
( n r )!
PROBABILITY
1.
Coin is tossed 100 times, head was obtained in first 99 trials.
What is the probability of head in the 100th trial?
2.
Jack drawer contains 10 blue socks and 12 grey socks. The room
is dark and he cannot turn on the light. At the maximum, how
many socks he is required to take out just to ensure that he has a
pair of the same colour?
3.
Probability of winning in a football game is 0.4. What is the
probability of loosing? What are the possible experimental
outcomes?
PROBABILITY
If the Macau Lottery system uses random selection of six
4.
integers from a group of 47 to determine the weekly lottery
winner. If you buy a lottery ticket, what are your chances of
winning?
1/10,737,573
Out of 10 pieces, 3 are defective. In how many ways selection of
5.
3 pieces can be made so that it includes only one defective
piece? What is the probability of doing so?
6.
63
In a game of dice you need to get exactly 5 to win. You have two
options, either to roll both dice or one. What will you opt for?
PROBABILITY
Classical Approach
Relative Frequency Approach
Subjective Approach
Classical Approach
Relative Frequency Approach
Subjective Approach
Assumption:
Assumption:
Assumption:
Outcomes are Mutually
Exclusive &Equally Likely
1. Random experiment can be
repeated large no. of times
under same condition and
trials are independent
2. Outcomes are Not Equally
likely or not known
Frequency of the event
is very low
Based on :
Based on:
Based on:
Rules
No. of times event has occurred in
the past
P ( A) lt n
A priori Classical Probability
Approach
Limitation
c( s)
n
Belief/Experience
PROBABILITY
Classify the following probability estimates:
The
probability of scoring on penalty shot in hockey is 0.54
Relative Frequency
Probability
that you will top in the first exam of the college
this year is 0.23
Subjective
Probability
of getting 2 sixes on rolling two dice is 1/36
Classical
Probability
that American president elected in the year
ending in 0 will die in his office is 0.43.
Relative Frequency/Subjective
Probability
dream
Subjective
that it will rain tomorrow as you saw that in your
TYPES OF PROBABILITY
Marginal Probability
Probability
of single event
Joint Probability
Probability
of two or more events occurring together or in
succession
Conditional Probability
Probability
of particular event occurring, given another
event has occurred
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Rules of Addition
At least one of the two events occur
Mutually
Exclusive Events
P(A U B)
= P(A) + P(B)
P(A U B U C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C )
Joint
Events
P(A U B)
= P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
P(A U B U C ) =?
P(A B C )=?
RULES OF PROBABILITY
7.
After the census, the following data was collected:
No. of
children
6 or
more
Proportion of
families
.05
.10
.30
.25
.15
.10
.05
What is the probability that the family chosen at random will have 4 or
more children
Ans:0.3
8.
Employees have elected 5 members to represent them on
management council. If one member is randomly selected
what is the probability that member will be either female
or over 35 years.
Ans:3/5
M/30
M/32
F/45
F/20
M/40
RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULES OF MULTIPLICATION
Both the events occur
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Marginal
Probability
Joint
Probability
P(AB)=P(A B)=P(A)*P(B)
Conditional
Probability
P(AB)=P(A)
P(B A)=P(B)
RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULES OF MULTIPLICATION
Both the events occur
DEPENDENT EVENTS
Conditional
Probability
P(AB)=P(A B)/P(B)
P(BA)=P(A B)/P(A)
Joint Probability
P(AB)=P(A B)=P(A)*P(B A)
= P(B)*P(A B)
Marginal Probability
Sum of probabilities of Joint event in which simple event occurs
RULES OF PROBABILITY
CONCLUSION CHART
RULES OF PROBABILITY
9.
If P(A U B)=7/8
If P(A B)=1/4
P(A)=5/8
Obtain P(A B)
Ans:
10.
1/8
Probability that A can solve the problem is 80%,B can
solve the problem is 40% and C can solve the problem is
70%.All three try solving the problem independently.
What is the probability that problem will be solved?
Are these events independent and mutually exclusive?
Ans: 96.4%, INDEPENDENT NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
RULES OF PROBABILITY
11.
Probability that an applicant has a management degree
is 0.3 and has some prior work experience is 0.7 and
that he has both is 0.2. Out of 200 applicants, how
many would have at least one of the two qualifications.
160
12.
After doing BBA you apply in two companies to get
some work experience. Probability that you will be
selected in Firm A is 0.7 and that you will be rejected in
firm B is 0.5. The probability that at least one of your
application will be rejected is 0.6. Are these two events
independent of each other?What is the probability that
you will be selected by at least one of the firms.
0.8
RULES OF PROBABILITY
13.
A university has to select examiner from a list of 50 people, 20 of
them are women and 30 are men,15 are teachers and remaining are
not,10 know Hindi and others dont. What is the probability of
university selecting Hindi knowing woman teacher as a examiner?
3/125 Independent but not Mutually Exclusive
14.
There are 3 brands of soap available in the market. A consumer
chooses exactly one of them for his use. He never buys two or
more brands simultaneously. The probabilities that he buys three
brands are 0.2, 0.16 and 0.45 respectively. Are these events
mutually exclusive?
What is the probability that:
Consumer
buys at least one of these brands
Consumer doesnt buy any of these brands
Ans:0.81,0.19
Mutually Exclusive
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Marketing Manager has installed four billboards on the
highway to promote the new restaurant in the town. From the
past experience he has estimated the individual probability
of people viewing the billboards as 0.75,0.82,0.87 and 0.9
respectively for the four billboards. Assuming that the event
of noticing a particular bill board is independent of whether
he notices the other bill boards or not. What is the
probability that:
All billboards will be noticed by randomly chosen person?
The 1st and 4th but not the 2nd and 3rd billboards will be noticed?
Exactly one billboards will be noticed?
None of the billboards will be noticed?
3rd and 4th billboards wont be noticed?
15.
Ans:0.481545,0.015795,0.013595,0.000585,0.013
RULES OF PROBABILITY
16.
17.
.
.
.
.
According the investment consultant odds against the price of any stock
going up during the next week is 2:1 and odds in favor of the price
remaining the same are 1:3.What is the probability that the prize of the
stock will go down during the next.
Ans: 5/12
Based on the table solve the following:
Promotional
Status
MBA
Non MBA
Promoted
0.14
0.26
0.4
Not promoted
0.21
0.39
0.6
Total
0.35
0.65
1.00
Conditional probability of promotion after MBA has been identified.
Conditional probability that it is an MBA when promoted employee has been
chosen
Probability that promoted employee was an MBA
Ans:0.4,0.35,0.14
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability that the family owns two cars if their monthly income is more
than Rs. 35000 is 0.75. Of the households surveyed, 60% had income
over Rs. 35000 and 52% had two cars. What is the probability that :
Family has two cars and income over Rs. 35000.
Family income is more than Rs. 35000 provided they own 2 cars
18.
Ans: 0.45, 0.9
Regional manager of General Express, private parcel delivery firm is
worried about the likelihood of strike by some of its employees. He
knows from the experience that the probability of strike by the pilots is
0.75 and probability of strike by the drivers is 0.65. Also if the drivers
strike, there is 90% chances that pilot will also strike in sympathy
What is the probability of both groups striking?
If the pilots strike, what is the probability that drivers will strike in
sympathy?
19.
Ans:0.585,0.78
PROBABILITY TREE DIAGRAM
Joint probability
BAYES THEOREM
Obtaining Posterior Probabilities in the light of
additional information
P( Ai B)
P( Ai B)
P( B)
p(B)=p(BA1)+ p(BA2)+ p(BA3)++ p(BAk)
p ( B ) p ( B A1 ) p ( A1 ) p ( B Ak ) p ( Ak )
k
p ( B ) p ( B Ai ) p ( Ai )
i 1
p( B Ai ) p( A)
p ( Ai B)
p ( Ai B )
k
p( B)
p( B Ai ) p( Ai )
i 1
BAYES THEOREM
20.
21.
The three clerks in a post office process 40%, 35% and
25% of the work at post office. The error rate of the three
clerks is 0.04,0.06 and 0.03.A mail selected at random is
found to have an error. Postmaster wishes to know the
probability that it was processed by clerk A or B or C.
Ans: 0.36,0.47,0.17
A certain production process manufactures products, 10%
of which are defective. Each product is inspected before
supplying to customers but 10 % of the times inspector
incorrectly classifies a product. Only products classified as
good are supplied. If 820 products are supplied, how many
of them are expected to be defective?
Ans:0.012
BAYES THEOREM
22.
A test for a rare illness is 92% reliable i.e. in 92% of the cases test
will give positive results if person is really ill. When administered
on a person who is not ill, test will still give positive result 4% of
the times. If it is known that only 0.1% of the population is affected
by this disease, what is the probability that randomly selected
person who tests positive for the disease actually is suffering from
it?
Ans:0.0225
23. A bank credit manager uses three ways to encourage the collection of
delinquent accounts. From the past records , he learnt that 70% of the
accounts are called personally,20% are phoned and 10% are send a letter.
The probability of positive response from the three methods is 0.75,0.6
and 0.65 respectively. If the credit manager has just receive the payment.
What is the probability that the account was:
a)
Called on personally
b)
Send a letter
c)
Made a phone call
Ans: 0.74,0.169,0.0915
BAYES THEOREM
24.
It was observed that 80% of the FY students
submitted their industrial project on time.20% of
those who submitted project on time were found to
have copied from others and 40% of those who
submitted late were found to have copied the
project. What is the probability that:
It was copied if it was submitted on time.
b) It was not submitted on time if it was copied.
c) It was not copied if it was submitted on time
d) It was submitted on time if not copied
.Ans: 0.2,0.33,0.8, 0.84
a)
BAYES THEOREM
25.
A pharmaceutical company gives advertisement in the
magazine and estimates 1 % of the subscribers will buy the
medicine. Also they estimate that 0.5% of non subscribers
will buy the medicine. And there is one chance in 20 that
person is a subscriber.
Probability that randomly selected person will buy the
product
If the person buys the product what is the probability that
he subscribes the magazine?
If person does not buy the product that is the probability
that he subscribes the magazine?
Ans:0.00525,0.09523,0.0498
BAYES THEOREM
If a machine is correctly set up, it will produce 90%
acceptable products. If incorrectly set up it will produce
40% acceptable products. Experience shows that 80% of
the set ups are correctly done.
a) If after certain set up, out of the first two items produced,
first is found to be acceptable and second unacceptable,
find the probability that machine is correctly set up.
b) If after certain set up, machine produces two acceptable
items as first two pieces, find the probability that machine
is correctly set up.
Ans: 0.6,0.953
26.
BAYES THEOREM
27.
Marketing Manager of UTV Motion Pictures, believes that
the upcoming release has a 60% chance of being hit,25%
chance of moderate success and 15 % chance of being flop.
To test the accuracy of the opinion he schedules two
independent screening tests. From his experience in the
industry he knows the following information:
Rating
Hit
Moderate
success
Flop
7 or higher
0.6
0.3
0.15
4-6
0.3
0.45
0.35
3 or lower
0.1
0.25
0.5
If 1st screening produces score of 6, what is the probability of hit?
If first screening produces score of 6 and second screening of
2,what is the probability of flop?
Ans:0.5217,0.3627
PROBABILITY
28.
What is the probability of having 53 Saturdays in a leap
year?
Ans:2/7
29.
If you speak truth 70% of the times and your friend speaks
the truth 80% of the times. In what percentage of cases are
you likely to contradict each other while giving the same
statement.
Ans: 38% or 44%
30.
If P(A)=1/2
P(B)=1/3
P(AB)=1/4
Find: P(AB), P(A U B), P(AB), P(AUB)
Ans: 1/12, 3/4, 5/12, 11/12
