Introduction to Probability
Basic Definitions
Random Experiment:
All possible outcomes can be defined in advance. And there is uncertainty about which
outcome will occur when the experiment is performed, such as tossing a coin.
Sample Space (S): It is the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
Example 1:
1) Tossing one fair coins :
S = {H, T}
2) Tossing two fair coins together:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Tossing fair coin three times:
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
4) Tossing fair coin n times or tossing n fair coins one time. sample space is
Basic Definitions
Example 2:
1) Tossing one fair die : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2) Tossing two fair dice together:
Basic Definitions
Recording the gender of children of three children families.
With b and g standing for boy and girl .
S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}
Drawing a card from a well-shuffled standard
deck of 52 cards. Denoting by C,D,H,
and S clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades,
respectively, by J,Q,K Jack, Queen, and King,
and using 1 for aces
Basic Definitions
C. Event: An event A and B is a sub set of the sample space.
Event B is sub set of event A.
Example 3: If we toss a die one time: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Find the following events:
1. Score is less than 5 : 𝑨={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑,𝟒}
2. Score is even : 𝑩={𝟐,𝟒 ,𝟔}
3) Score is odd : 𝑪={𝟏, 𝟑,𝟓}
4)Score is even and less than 5 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩={𝟐,𝟒}
5)Score is even or less than 5 𝑨𝒐𝒓 𝑩={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑,𝟒,𝟔}
6) Score is not less than 5: 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝑨={𝟓, 𝟔 }
Basic Definitions
Example 4: If we rolls two fair dice :
•Let D1 be the value rolled on die 1.
•Let D2 be the value rolled on die 2.
1) the face-up value of the first one is 2
,,,,}
2) sum of two values is no greater than 5 :
{ }
(1 , 1 ) , (1 , 2 ) , ( 1 ,3 ) , ( 1 , 4 ) ,
𝐵=
( 2 ,1 ) , ( 2 , 2 ) , ( 2 , 3 ) ,
( 3 , 1 ) , ( 3 , 2 ) ,
( 4 ,1 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
Probability of event A:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑺
As then
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: For throwing coin three times,
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} N=8
1) Event A is two or more heads:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟒 𝟏
𝑨={ 𝑯𝑯𝑻 , 𝑯𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑯𝑯 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= 𝑵 ¿ 𝟖 = 𝟐
2) Event B is all tosses are the same:
𝒏( 𝑩) 𝟐 𝟏
𝑩= {𝑻𝑻𝑻 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=
𝑵
¿ =
𝟖 𝟒
Example 4: If balls are numbered from 1 to 15 and a ball is selected, what is the probability of:
A: prime number greater than 5
𝑨={ 𝟕 , 𝟏𝟏,𝟏𝟑 } 𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟑 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟓
B: odd number less than 11.
𝒏( 𝑩) 𝟓 𝟏
𝑩= {𝟏, 𝟑, 𝟓,𝟕, 𝟗 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟑
Basic Rules of Probability:
1) Intersection of Events:
The occurrence of event A and B (Both events occur)
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
2) Union of Events:
The occurrence of event A or B (At least one event)
𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩¿
) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )+𝑷 ( 𝑩 −) 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
3) Complementary of Event:
Complementary of event A is subset of S and does not belong to A.
′
𝑷(𝑨 ¿ ¿𝒄)=𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝑷 (𝑨 )=𝟏−𝑷 (𝑨)¿
4) The occurrence of only A and not B:
The occurrence of event A and not occurrence of B
¿ 𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
5) The occurrence of only B and not A:
The occurrence of event B and not occurrence of A
Basic Rules of Probability:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑺
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 ( 𝑨) ≤ 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 )+ 𝑷 ( 𝑩) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
𝑷( 𝑨)=𝟏−𝑷 ( 𝑨)
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 1: A class contains 30 students grouped as follows:
Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Find the probability of selecting:
Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
𝟏𝟔
one male 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) = Total 13 10 7 30
𝟑𝟎
𝟏𝟑
one student from Alex 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =
𝟑𝟎
13 𝟏𝟕
one student not from Alex 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴)¿ 1−
𝑐
¿
30 𝟑𝟎
𝟓
one male from Cairo (
𝑃 𝑀 ∩𝐶 = )
𝟑𝟎
one male or one student from Giza 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∪𝐺 ) =𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) +𝑃 ( 𝐺 ) − 𝑃 (𝑀 ∩ 𝐺)
16 +7 4 19
¿ − ¿
30 30 30 30
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
1. what is the probability that the student will pass both courses?
Let passing math probability is
Let passing English probability is
Let passing at least course probability is
Then the probability of passing both courses is
By using 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∪ 𝑬 )=𝑷 ( 𝑴 )+ 𝑷 ( 𝑬 ) − 𝑷 (𝑴 ∩ 𝑬)
𝟎 .𝟗=𝟎 . 𝟕𝟓+𝟎 .𝟖𝟓 − 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∩ 𝑬 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
2. The student fails Mathematics,
By using
3. The student pass English but he fails mathematics.,
By using
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
4. the probability of he passed in only one course.
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: Three students A, B and C are in a swimming race, A have twice as likely to win
as B and B is twice as likely to win as C , find the probability of winning of each one?
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 ∗𝟐 𝒙 ¿ 𝟒 𝒙
𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝒙
Let then:
As total probability is equal to one then,
𝟒 𝒙 +𝟐 𝒙 + 𝒙 =𝟏 then
𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑪 ) =𝒙=
𝟕
𝟐
𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 )=𝟐 𝒙=
𝟕
𝟒
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )=4 x=
𝟕
Types of events
Mutual Exclusive Events:
Both A and B cannot occur in the same time.
A and B are disjoint.
A is subset of B
Independent:
Independent events that event not affected by each other, which mean that the probability
of occurring of one event does not depend on the probability of the other event.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 (𝑩) 𝑷 (𝑪)
Example (5):
Solution:
a. If A and B are Mutual Exclusive Events
By using
1 1 1
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) p p
3 4 12
b. If A and B are Independent 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩)
1 1 1 3 1 1
p p p p
3 4 4 4 12 9
Example (5):
Solution:
c. If A is a subset of B
A B P ( A B ) P ( A)
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A)
P( A B) P( B)
1
p
3
Example 6 :
Three men, and fire at a target. Suppose, , denote their probabilities of hitting the target.
A. Find the probability that they all hit the target
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) ¿ ⅙ ×¼ ×⅓ ¿ 𝟏/𝟕𝟐
B. Find the probability that they all miss the target
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩𝑪 )
𝒄 𝒄 𝒄
¿ ⅚ ×¾ ×⅔¿ 𝟑𝟎/𝟕𝟐=𝟓 /𝟏𝟐
C. Find the probability that only one of them hits the target.
( 𝒄
𝑷 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪
𝒄
) +𝑷 ( 𝑨
𝒄
∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪
𝒄
) +𝑷 ( 𝑨 𝒄 ∩ 𝑩𝒄 ∩ 𝑪 )
¿ ( ⅙ × ¾× ⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¼ × ⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¾ ×⅓ ) ¿𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟒
D. Find the probability that only two of them hits the target.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 )
𝒄 𝒄 𝒄
¿ ( ⅙ × ¼ ×⅔ ) + ( ⅚ ×¼ × ⅓ ) + ( ⅙ × ¾ ×⅓ ) ¿𝟎.𝟓𝟔𝟕
E. Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵∪ 𝐶 ) ¿ 1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 )
𝑐 𝑐 𝑐
¿ 𝟎 .𝟓𝟖
