Introduction to
Probability
Introduction to probability
Basic Definitions:
A. Random Experiment:
All possible outcomes can be defined in advance. And there is uncertainty about which
outcome will occur when the experiment is performed, such as tossing a coin.
B. Sample Space (S):
It is the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
▪ Example:
• Tossing a coin: {H, T}
• Throwing a die: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
C. Event:
An event A and B is a sub set of the sample space.
Event B is sub set of event A.
Introduction to probability
Example 1:
1) Tossing one coins :
S = {H, T}
2) Tossing two coins together:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Tossing coin three times:
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH,
TTT}
4) Tossing coin n times or tossing n coins one time.
Introduction to probability
Example 2:
▪ If we toss a die one time:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Find the following events:
1) Score is even :
2) Score is less than 5 :
3) Score is odd :
Introduction to probability
Example 2:
▪ If we toss a die one time: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Find the following events:
4)Score is even and less than 5
5)Score is even or less than 5
6) Score is not less than 5:
Basics of
Probability:
Probability of event A:
Introduction to probability
Example For throwing coin three times,
3: S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, N=8
1) Event A is two or more
TTT}heads:
2) Event B is all tosses are the same:
Example If balls are numbered from 1 to 15 and a ball is selected, what is the probability of:
4:
▪ A: prime number greater than 5
▪ B: odd number less than 11.
Basic Rules of
Probability:
1) Intersection of Events:
The occurrence of event A and B (Both events occur)
2) Union of Events:
The occurrence of event A or B (At least one event)
Basic Rules of Probability:
3) Complementary of Event:
Complementary of event A is subset of S and does not belong to A.
4) The occurrence of only A and not B:
The occurrence of event A and not occurrence of B
5) The occurrence of only B and not A:
The occurrence of event B and not occurrence of A
Introduction to probability
Basic Rules of Probability:
The probability of intersection can be calculated in three different ways based on the case we
work on as follow:
❑ Mutual Exclusive Events:
Both A and B cannot occur in the same time.
A and B are disjoint.
❑ Independent:
Introduction to probability
Summery of Rules of Probability:
Mutual exclusive events :
Independent events :
Introduction to probability
Example
5:
The probability that a student passes Mathematics exam is 0.75 and the probability that he passes English exam
is 0.85. if the probability of passing at least one course is 0.9, what is the probability that the student will pass
both courses?
By using
Introduction to probability
Example
6:
Three horses (A,B and C) in race P(A) is twice likely of P(B) and P(B) is twice likely as P(C),
find the probability of each one?
Example (7):
Solution:
a. If A and B are Mutual Exclusive Events
b. If A and B are Independent
Example (7):
Solution:
c. If A is a subset of
Example A class contains 30 students grouped as follows:
8:
Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Find the probability of selecting: Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
Total 13 10 7 30
one male or one student from Giza
Introduction to probability
Example
8: Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Find the probability of selecting: Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
three males Total 13 10 7 30
two males and three females =
two students of the same gender =
two students from the same city =
Introduction to probability
Example 9
:
A. Find the probability that they all hit the target
B. Find the probability that they all miss the target
Introduction to probability
Example 9
:
C. Find the probability that only one of them hits the target.
D. Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target
Introduction to probability
Example 10:
▪ A coin is tossed three times and all the eight outcomes are assumed to be equally likely.
• If A is event that a head occurs on each of the first two tosses,
• B is the event that a tail occurs on the third toss,
• C is the event that exactly two tails in the three tosses, show that:
1) Events A and B are independent.
2) Events B and C are dependent.
Introduction to probability
Example 10 S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
:
Solution:
A head the first two tosses
B tail on the third toss
Then Events A and B are independent
C exactly two tails
Then Events B and C are not independent
Good luck
Dr. Mahmoud
Abd El-Raouf
