History

History of Ukraine
• 1256
• Founded as the City of Lviv by King Daniel of Galicia (King of
Ruthenia)
• 1651
• 13 years war between Poland and Russia over Ukraine
• 1667
• Poland ceded Kiev, Smolensk and Ukraine to Russia under
the Treaty of Andrusovo
• 1863
• Ukrainian language officially prohibited
 History of Ukraine
• 1905
• Annulment of restrictions on the use of Ukrainian
Language in Russian Empire
• 1918
• Ukraine’s independence and the formation of
Ukrainian People’s Republic
• 1921
• Formation of Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine
• 1932
• Stalin’s collective campaign and famine
• 1937
• Stalin’s Purge
 History of Ukraine
• 1941-1944
• Germans occupied Ukraine
• Mass execution of Ukrainian Jews (1.5 M) and death of
Ukrainians who fought Nazis (5M)
• 1945 (World War II)
• Soviet annexation of western Ukrainian lands
• 1954
• Armed resistance against Soviet Rule which ended with
the defeat of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army
• 1988
• Ukrainian People’s Movement
 History of Ukraine
• 1990
• Human chain protest for Ukrainian Independence
• 1991
• Ukrainian independence proclaimed from Soviet
Union
• Independence voted for by Ukrainians through a
referendum
• End of the Soviet Rule
• Agreed upon by leaders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine
• Commonwealth of Independent States
• Abandonment of Ukraine of the Budapest Memorandum
on security assurances
 History of Ukraine
• 1997
• Ukraine and Russia signed a friendship treaty over the
Black Sea fleet
• 1999
• Charter for European Security
• 2001
• Formation of GUAM Organization for Democracy and
Economic Development
• Formed by Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan
• Foreseen direct challenge by Russia
 History of Ukraine
• 2003
• Border dispute with Russia on Kerch Strait
• Agreement of joint use of Kerch Strait by Presidents
Kuchma and Putin
• 2004
• Orange Revolution
• Cooperation of
• Ukraine with Nato
• 2005
• Viktor Yushchenko voted as president
• Yanukovych lost (Pro- Russian)
 History of Ukraine
• 2006
• Presidential to Parliamentary powers
• 2007
• Dissolution of parliament
• Due to then PM Yanukovych
• Yulia Tymoshenko appointed as PM
• Coalated with Yanukovych’s party
• 2008
• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Ukraine
that joining NATO would breach their friendship
treaty
 History of Ukraine
• 2010
• Viktor Yanukovych won Presidential elections
• Ratification of agreement to extend Russia’s lease on
the Black Sea fleet base in Sevastopol in Crimea for
25 years (unconstitutional due to the expiration of
Treaty of Sevastopol)
• Imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko
• Further dissatisfaction with the government
• 2012
• Repeal on minority languages
• Alienation of many Russian speaking regions
• Vetoed by then President Oleksandr Turchynov
 Start of Ukraine Crisis (2013)
• September
• Russia warned Ukraine that it’s venture with EU would
result to the financial catastrophe of Ukraine and a
possible collapse of it (Sergey Glazyev), and that it is
against the bilateral treaty between the two states
(contrary to international law)
• 21 November
• Then president Victor Yanukovych’s suspension of the
preparations for the implementation of an association
agreement with the European Union.
• Restrictions on certain Ukrainian product
• Russia’s turning eye on the status of Ukraine as a
state
Start of Ukraine Crisis (2014)
• February
• Ousting and fleeing of Yanukovych
• Kiev to Kharkiv
• After the ousting, unrest enveloped in some
largely Russophone eastern and southern
regions of Ukraine, from where Yanukovych had
drawn most of his support
• By which these regions were invaded by Russia
• 27 February
• Berkut special police units from Crimea and
other regions of Ukraine seized checkpoints on
the Isthmus of Perekop and Chonhar peninsula
• Dissolved on 25 February
Start of Ukraine Crisis (2014)
• March
• Russia Annexed to the Ukrainian region of Crimea
• April
• Russia’s support to separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk
• Restoration of the 2004 Constitution of Ukraine and
the removal of Yanukovych from power
(unconstitutional removal)
Crimea Crisis
• Putin ordered Russian troops to invade and
occupy key Crimean locations including
airports and military bases
• Admiral Berezovsky, Ukrainian Navy head,
defects and was followed by half of the
Ukrainian military stationed in Crimea
• Russian forces seized and dissolved the
Supreme Council and installed a new pro-
Russian Prime Minister
Crimea Crisis
• 16 March 2014
• Crimea was declared to be independent and self-
governing entity
• A referendum took place by which majority vote
vies toward the status of Crimea to join the
Russian Federation
• 18 March 2014
• A treaty was signed between the Republic of
Crimea and the Russian Federation at Kremlin
• Accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation
Crimea Crisis
• 19 March 2014
• Ukrainian Armed Forces are evicted from their
bases by Crimean protesters and Russian troops.
• Ukraine announces its withdrawal of forces in
Crimea
• Russia was suspended from the G8
• International sanctions introduced on Russia
Russian military intervention in
Eastern Ukraine
• Russian troops take over Crimea, seize military units
near Chonhar, Kherson Oblast
• Russian military buildup on Russian-Ukrainian border
• NATO condemns Russian involvement, plans Rapid
Trident military exercises in Ukraine
• Reinforces members west of Ukraine
• US and Ukraine accuse Russia of orchestrating
unrest in eastern and southern Ukraine
• War in Donbass
Russian military intervention in
Eastern Ukraine
• Glazyev tapes (August 2016)
• Telephone intercepts from 2014 of Sergey
Glazyev, Konstantin Zatulim and others
• Published by Security Service of Ukraine
• Covert funding of pro-Russian activists in Eastern
Ukraine (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and
Odessa
• Was not denied
• Presented as evidence against former president
Yanukovych in Oblon Court between 2017 and
2018
Donbas War
• 4 March 2014
• Vitaly Churkin presented a photocopy of a letter
signed by Viktor Yanukovich on 1 March 2014
asking Russian President Vladimir Putin the right
to use Russian troops in Crimea.
• 1 March 2014
• both houses of Russian parliament gave President
Putin the right to use Russian troops in Crimea
• 24 June 2014
• Vladimir Putin asked Russian parliament to cancel
resolution on use of Russian forces in Ukraine
Donbas War
• 25 June 2014
• The Federation Council voted to repeal its previous
decision, making it illegal to use the Russian organized
military forces in Ukraine.
• It is among the worst humanitarian crises in the
world, with frequent attacks occurring from both
sides across Donetsk and Luhansk.
• The Donbas conflict is often described as “hybrid
warfare,” something akin to Russia’s seizure of
Crimea with “little green men.”
 Four Critical Divers contributing to Conflicts in
Russia’s neighboring Regions
Gienger, V. G., Kuehnast, K., & Van Metre, L. The Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Signals and Scenarios for the Broader Region. United
States Institute of Peace (SR366), page 3. doi:202.457.1700

1) Extent of Instability
2) Russia’s own regime stability and internal
support for Putin
3) Western response to Russian action
4) Putin’s goals and objectives
 Importance of Ukraine to Russia
Zeihan, P. (2014). The Accident Superpower: The Next Generation of American
Preeminence and the coming Global Disorder. New York: Twelve Hachette Group

3. Ukraine holds the largest number of ethnic

Russians outside of Russia
4. Eastern Ukraine’s industrial base is directly
adjacent to Russia.
5. Ukrainian Infrastructure transports nearly half of
Russia’s oil and natural gas exports to Europe
6. It is a valuable buffer
“An independent Ukraine is a threat to Russia”
 Treaties Involved
• Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty (The Big Treaty)
• Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership
between Ukraine and the Russian Federation
• Signed: 31 May 1997
• Effective: 1 April 1999
• Expiration: 31 March 2019
• Signatories: Russia and Ukraine
• Prevention of the invasion of each other’s territory and
war
• Ukraine announced its disinterest in the renewal of the
treaty on September 2018 which led to the expiration of
the treaty
Treaties Involved
• Minsk Protocol
• The Protocol on the results of consultations of the
Trilateral Contact Group
• Agreement to halt the War in Donbass
• Signed by representatives of Ukraine, the Russian
Federation, the Donetsk People’s Republic, and the
Luhansk People’s Republic
• Signed: 5 September 2014
 Treaties Involved
Minsk II
Agreed upon on 11 February 2015 by Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany.
Treaties Involved
• Warsaw Pact
• Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual
Assistance
• Collective defense treaty
• Created in reaction to the integration of West
Germany to NATO
• Membership
• Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany,
Hungary, Poland, Romania, Soviet Union
• Founded: 14 May 1955
• Dissolved: 1 July 1991
Treaties Involved
• Treaty of Sevastopol
• Also Karkiv Pact
• Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea
Fleet in Ukraine
• Lease of naval facilities in Crimea
• Extension from 2017 to 2042 in exchange for a multiyear
discountedcontract to provide Ukraine with Russian natural gas.
• Signed on 21 April 2010 by then Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovych and then Russian President Dimitry Medvedev
• Charter for European Security
• Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
Ukraine Map
Ukraine Division
European Map
Current News
7 September 2019
After five years of grinding conflict stoked by Russia in
eastern Ukraine, the two bitterly estranged neighbors
swapped dozens of prisoners on Saturday in a long-
anticipated exchange that Ukraine’s new president
hailed as “the first step to end the war.” But there is
little sign that Mr. Putin is willing to stop supporting
pro-Russian separatist fighters whom Ukraine views as
“terrorists.” He has also firmly ruled out any possibility
of returning Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula seized by
Moscow in 2014, to Ukraine.
 10 October 2019
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said a direct meeting must happen with
Russian President Vladimir Putin if a five-year conflict in the east of Ukraine
between pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine's armed forces is to end. Zelensky said
he would choose the diplomatic path to solve the conflict rather than direct
military action.
Efforts by France and Germany in 2015 to broker a cease-fire and peace deal,
known as the Minsk agreements or protocol, were widely seen to have failed
with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of failing to meet the
conditions of the deal.
The future status of two pro-Russian (self-proclaimed) "people's republics" in
Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbass region is one of the biggest issues. Earlier
this month negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the rebel side agreed that Kiev
would grant the rebel region autonomy and to hold local elections there. Under
the agreement, known as the Steinmeier formula, rebel fighters and Ukrainian
troops would also pull back from the line of contact.
10 October 2019
It aimed to break the impasse over a 2015 peace deal
between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists and
decide who should do what and in what order. The plan
details free and fair elections in the east under Ukrainian
law, verification by the OSCE international security
organisation, and then self-governing status in return.
The conflict in Donbass will take a long time to resolve, but it
will be peripheral to the fate of Ukraine as a whole. As for
Crimea, international agreement on its status will take a very
long time and will reflect the future status of Russia's
relations with the West.
Latest Statistics
There was an estimated number of 400 attacks in
Ukraine by enemy forces from October 1 to 20 of
2019. In September, 24 occupiers who had been part
of the units of Russian occupation forces of the so-
called 'Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics' were
killed in action, while about 56 mercenaries sustained
injuries of varying severity. As of February 26, 2019,
13,000 people have been killed, a quarter of them
civilians, and as many as 30,000 wounded in the war in
eastern Ukraine since it broke out in April 2014.
Correlates of War
Formula

• Pp = Perceived Power
• C = Population
• E = Economic Capability
• M = Military Capability
• S = Strategy
• W = Will
Representation
Economic Capability (E)
Population (C) (via Gross Domestic Product)

1 = Below 500k 1 = below 1B

2 = 500k – 1M 2 = 1B – 50B
3 = 1M – 100M 3 = 50B – 100B
4 = 100M – 5M 4 = 100B – 1T
5 = Above 5M 5 = 1T
Representation

Strategy (S) Will (W)

1 = 1M – 2M
2 = Above 2M
Solution

Russia Ukraine
Pp = (7+5+20) x (4+5) Pp = (4+4+8) x (4+3)
Pp = 288 Pp = 112
Multi-Level Analysis
COLOR CODING Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
 Russian Federation
Vladimir Putin
Economic Sanctions
Irredentism applied to Russia

Crimea Crisis

NATO condemns
Donbas War
Russian plans of
Rapid Trident
Viktor Military execrises in
Yanukovych Suspension of Ukraine
Association of
Agreement with the
EU
Solution
Solution
The anticipated solution that would best fit in the
conflict of Russia and Ukraine is thru Fact-Findings
and having negotiations between the 2 states. First
they must need to contemplate and settle their
disputes by using research thru ambassadors in
which they later on, will negotiate.