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Basic Rules of Probability

The document discusses basic rules of probability, including: - Events can be independent or dependent based on whether the occurrence of one affects the other. - Events can be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. - The multiplication rule states that P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) if events are dependent, and equals P(A) × P(B) if independent. - The addition rule is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), or just P(A) + P(B) if the events are mutually exclusive.

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135 views7 pages

Basic Rules of Probability

The document discusses basic rules of probability, including: - Events can be independent or dependent based on whether the occurrence of one affects the other. - Events can be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. - The multiplication rule states that P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) if events are dependent, and equals P(A) × P(B) if independent. - The addition rule is P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), or just P(A) + P(B) if the events are mutually exclusive.

Uploaded by

Once Ler
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Basic Rules of Probability

Barnes, Russell P.
2 things to consider when calculating probability

• If an event is independent or dependent


• Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the
probability of the other occurring.
• If the occurrence of one event does affect the probability of the other
occurring, then the events are dependent.

• If an event is mutually exclusive or not


• Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.
Multiplication Rule
•• If  A and B are two events defined on a sample space, then:

P (A and B) = P (A) * P (B|A), or P (B and A) = P (B) * P (A|B)

• Or can be written as:


P(A|B) =
• If A and B are independent, then:
P(A|B) = P(A).

• Then P(A AND B) = P(A|B)*P(B)


becomes P(A AND B) = P(A)*P(B).
Addition Rule

• If A and B are defined on a sample space, then:


P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B).

• If A and B are mutually exclusive, then


P(A AND B) = 0.
Then P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B)
becomes P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B).
TRY IT 3.16
A school has 200 seniors of whom 140 will be going to college next year. Forty will be going directly to work. The remainder
are taking a gap year. Fifty of the seniors going to college play sports. Thirty of the seniors going directly to work play sports.
Five of the seniors taking a gap year play sports. What is the probability that a senior is taking a gap year?

Given:
• 
Total Students = 200 Find P
Going to College = 140
Going to Work = 40
P=
Taking a gap = ? (200-140-40=20) = 0.1
Asked:
Probability that a senior is taking a gap year.
TRY IT 3.17
A student goes to the library. Let events B = the student checks out a book and D = the student check
out a DVD. Suppose that P(B) = 0.40, P(D) = 0.30 and P(D|B) = 0.5.

Find P(B AND D). MULTIPLICATION RULE


P(B and D)= P(D|B)P(B)
= (0.5)(0.40)
= 0.20
Find P(B OR D). ADDITION RULE
P(B OR D) = P(B) + P(D) − P(B AND D)
= 0.40 + 0.30 − 0.20
= 0.50
TRY IT 3.19
A student goes to the library. Let events B = the student checks out a book and D = the student
checks out a DVD. Suppose that P(B) = 0.40, P(D) = 0.30 and P(D|B) = 0.5.

• 
a. Find P(B′). d. Find P(D AND B′).
P(D and B’) = P(D) – P(D and B’)
P(B′) = 1 – P (B)
= 1 – 0.40 = 0.30 – 0.20
= 0.60 = 0.10

e. Find P(D|B′).
b. Find P(D AND B).
P(D|B’) = P (D and B’) P(B’)
P(D and B)= P(D|B)P(B)
= (0.30-0.20)(0.60)
= (0.5)(0.40)
= (0.10)(0.60)
= 0.20 = 0.06

c. Find P(B|D).
P (B|D)=
=
= 0.667 or 0.67 .10 .20 .20

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