CE 254

Transportation Engineering

The Four-Step Model:

II. Trip Distribution

Wes Marshall, P.E.

University of Connecticut
February 2008
The Basic Transportation Model…
1) Study Area Zones
2) Attributes of Zones
Inputs
 Socioeconomic Data
 Land Use Data
 “Cost” of Travel btw. Zones
3) The Road Network
Outputs

 Traffic Volume by Road Link

 Mode Splits
 Emissions
What’s in the Black Box?
The Four-Step Model
The Four-Step Modeling Process…
I. Trip Generation

II. Trip Distribution

WHY?
III. Mode Choice

IV. Trip Assignment

 The Four-Step Model
 The main reason we use
the four-step model is:
 To predict roadway traffic volumes
& traffic problems such as
congestion and pollution emissions
In turn, we typically use
the models to compare
several transportation alternatives
 The Four-Step Model
 Originally developed in the 1950s with
the interstate highway movement
 Since the 1950s, researchers have developed a
multitude of advanced modeling techniques

Nevertheless, most agencies still

use the good ol’ four-step model
Overview of the
Four-Step Model
 TRIP GENERATION
Input: Household Socioeconomic Data - HH Size

Survey Data
- Income
- No. of Cars
} Examples of HH
socioeconomic data

Land Use Data

}
- No. of Housing Units Examples of
- Office, Industrial SF land use data
Process:
Iterative Process

Model residential trip productions and non-residential trip attractions w/

- Regression Models
- Trip-Rate Analysis
- Cross-Classification Models

Output: Trip Ends by purpose

- i.e. columns of trip productions and trip attractions

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Input: Trip Ends by purpose

Process:
- Growth Factor Models
- Not as accurate as Gravity Model
- Used for external trips or short-term planning
- Gravity Model
- Used for regional or long-term planning

Output: Trip Interchanges

- A matrix of trips between each TAZ… also called a “trip table”
Iterative Process MODE CHOICE
Input: Trip Interchanges

Process: Finds trip interchanges between i & j for each mode

- Function of Trip Maker, Journey, and Transport Facility
- Trip End Model
- Mode plays role in trip ends
- Typically used for small cities with little traffic and little transit
- No accounting for the role that policy decisions play in mode choice
- Trip Interchance Model
- Use when LOS is important, transit is a true choice, highways are congested, and parking is limited

Output: Trip Table by Mode

TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Input: Trip Table by Mode

Process:
Allocate trips to links between nodes i & j
- Function of Path to Destination and Minimum Cost (time & money)
- Identify Attractive Routes via Tree Building
-
Shortest Path Algorithm or Dijkstra’s Algorithm
- Assign Portions of Matrix to Routes / Tree
-
User Equilibrium, Heuristic Methods, Stochastic Effects w/ Logit
- Search for Convergence

Output: Daily Link Traffic Volumes

- i.e. traffic flows on network, ridership on transit lines
 Some General Problems with the
Conventional Methodology

 Huge focus on vehicular traffic

 A transit component is typical in better models
 Typically forecasts huge increases in traffic
 Leads to engineers building bigger roads
to accommodate “forecast” traffic
 Which leads to induced traffic and congestion…
right back where we started when we
needed the bigger roads in the first place
 Some General Problems with the
Conventional Methodology

 Pedestrians and bicyclists

are rarely included
 Level of geography is difficult
for non-motorized modes
 Network scale is insignificant
 Input variables are too limited
 Preparing for a
Four-Step Model
Before jumping into trip generation,
we first have to set up our project…

1) Define study area and boundaries

2) Establish the transportation network
3) Create the zones
 Defining the Study Area
 3 Basic Types
 Regional
 Statewide or a large metro area
 Used to predict larger patterns of traffic distribution,
growth, and emissions
 Corridor
 Major facility such as a freeway, arterial, or transit line
 Used to evaluate traffic
 Site or Project
 Proposed development or small scale change
(i.e. intersection improvement)
 Used to evaluate traffic impact
 Establish the Network
 Roads are represented by a
series of links & nodes

Node
Link

 Links are defined by speed and capacity

 Turns are allowed at nodes
 Establish the Network

 Typically only main roads and

intersections are included
 Even collector roads are often excluded
 This practice is becoming less common
as the processing power of computers
has increased
 Creating Zones
 Create Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
 Uniform land use
 Bounded by major roads
 Typically small in size (about the
size of a few neighborhood blocks)
 The State of Connecticut model has
~2,000 zones that cover 5,500 square
miles and over 3.4 million people
 Creating Zones
 All modeled trips begin in a zone and
are destined for a zone
 Zones are usually large enough that most
pedestrian and bicycle trips start and end in
the same zone (and thus not modeled)
 Also, the typical data we collect about
zones in terms of population and
employment information is not enough to
predict levels of walking and biking
Trip Generation
 Trip Generation
 Using socioeconomic data, we try to estimate
how many trips are “produced” by each TAZ
 For example, we might use linear regression to

estimate that a 2-person, 2-car household with a

total income of $90,000 makes 2 home-based
work trips per day
 Using land use data, we estimate how many trips
are “attracted” to each TAZ
 For example, an 3,000 SF office might bring in

12 work trips per day

 Trip Generation
 The process considers the
total number of trips
 Thus, walking and biking trips have not
been officially excluded (although most
models ignore them completely)
 The trips are generated by trip purpose
such as work or shopping
 Recreational or discretionary trips are
difficult to include
 Trip Generation
Input:  Socioeconomic Data
 Land Use Data
1
TAZ Productions TAZ Attractions
1 12 3 1 9
2 19 2 5 2 12
3 35 3 4
4 4 4 38
4 8
5 5 5 45
6 10 7 6 6
7 13 7 4
8 22
6 8 2

Output:  Trip Ends by purpose (i.e. work)

 in columns of productions & attractions
 Trip Generation Trip Distribution

The question is… how do we allocate all

the productions among all the attractions?
Zone 2

TAZ TAZ
Productions 1 2 3 4 5Zone 36 7 TAZ8 Attractions
1 12 1 1 9
Trip MatrixZone 4
2 19 2 2 12
or
3 35 3 Trip Table Zone 5
3 4
4 4 4 Zone 1 4 38
5 5 5 5 45
6 10 6 Zone 6 6 6
7 13 7 4
7
8 22 Zone 7 8 2
8
Zone 8
Trip Distribution
 Trip Distribution
 We link production or origin zones to
attraction destination zones
 A trip matrix is produced
TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1
2
3
4
5
Zone 1
Trip Matrix
6
7
8

 The cells within the trip matrix are the

“trip interchanges” between zones
 Trip Interchanges

 Decrease with distance between zones

 In addition to the distance between zones,
total trip “cost” can include things such as
tolls and parking costs
 Increase with zone “attractiveness”
 Typically includes square footage of retail
or office space but can get much more
complicated
 Trip Distribution

 Similar to Trip Generation, all the

modes are still lumped together by
purpose (i.e. work, shopping)
 This creates a problem for non-vehicular
trips because distance affects these trips
very differently
 Additionally, many walking and biking
trips are intra-zonal & difficult to model
 Basic Criteria for TD
 Criteria for allocating all the
productions among all the attractions
 Cost of trip
 Travel Time
 Actual Costs

 Attractiveness
 Quantity of Opportunity
 Desirability of Opportunity
 How to Distribute the Trips?

I. Growth Factor Models

II. Gravity Model
 Growth Factor Models
 Growth Factor Models assume that we
already have a basic trip matrix
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300
3 50 100 5 100
4 100 200 250 20

 Usually obtained from a previous

study or recent survey data
 Growth Factor Models
 The goal is then to estimate the matrix
at some point in the future
 For example, what would the trip matrix
look like in 10 years time?
TAZ 1 2 3 4 TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200 1 ? ? ? ?
2 50 5 100 300 2 ? ? ? ?
3 50 100 5 100 3 ? ? ? ?
4 100 200 250 20 4 ? ? ? ?
Trip Matrix, t Trip Matrix, T
(2008) (2018)
 Some of the More Popular
Growth Factor Models
 Uniform Growth Factor
 Singly-Constrained Growth Factor
 Average Factor
 Detroit Factor
 Fratar Method
Uniform Growth
Factor Model
Uniform Growth Factor

i = I = Production Zone
j = J = Attraction Zone
Tij = τ tij for each pair i and j
Tij = Future Trip Matrix
tij = Base-year Trip Matrix
τ = General Growth Rate
 Uniform Growth Factor
If we assume τ = 1.2, then…
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300 Trip Matrix, t
3 50 100 5 100 (2008)
4 100 200 250 20

Tij = τ tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 6 60 120 240 Trip Matrix, T
2 60 6 120 360
3 60 120 6 120 (2018)
4 120 240 300 24
 Uniform Growth Factor
 The Uniform Growth Factor is
typically used for 1 or 2 year horizons

However, assuming that trips grow

at a standard uniform rate is a
fundamentally flawed concept
 Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Model
 Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
 Similar to the Uniform Growth Factor
Method but constrained in one direction
 For example, let’s start with our base
matrix, t…
attractions, j
TAZ 1 2 3 4 zones
productions, i

1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300
3 50 100 5 100
4 100 200 250 20
 Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
 Instead of one uniform growth factor, assume
that we have estimated how many more or less
trips will start from our origins…
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σj Target Pi
1 5 50 100 200 355 400
2 50 5 100 300 455 460
3 50 100 5 100 255 400
4 100 200 250 20 570 702
Σi 205 355 455 620 1635 1962

 Now all we have to do is multiply each

row by the ratio of (Target Pi) / (Σj)
 Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σj Target P i
1 5 50 100 200 355 400
2 50 5 100 300 455 460
3 50 100 5 100 255 400
4 100 200 250 20 570 702
Σi 205 355 455 620 1635 1962

Tij = tij (Target Pi) / (Σj)

= 5 (400 / 355)
= 5.6
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σj Target Pi
1 5.6 56.3 112.7 225.4 400 400
2 50.5 5.1 101.1 303.3 460 460
3 78.4 156.9 7.8 156.9 400 400
4 123.2 246.3 307.9 24.6 702 702
Σi 257.7 464.6 529.5 710.2 1962 1962
 Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
 Can also perform the singly-constrained
growth factor method for a destination
specific future trip table
 By multiplying each column
by the ratio of (Target Aj) / (Σi)
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σj
1 5 50 100 200 355
2 50 5 100 300 455
3 50 100 5 100 255
4 100 200 250 20 570
Σi 205 355 455 620 1635
Target Aj 180 406 380 740 1706
 Overview of the Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Methodology

 One of the simplest trip distribution techniques

 Used with existing trip table & future trip ends
 Typically, we balance flows after processing
 This means that the total number of productions
equals the total number of attractions
(or in terms of origins & destinations)
 Tij = Tji
 But there are more advanced growth factor
models…
Average Growth
Factor Model
Average Growth Factor Function

Fi k + Fj k
g ( )=
2
F = Growth Factor
= Ratio of Target Trips to
Previous Iteration Trips
k = Iteration Number
The Basic Steps…
1) Collect Inputs
 Matrix of Existing Trips, {tij}
 Vector of Future Trips Ends, {Ti}
2) Compute Growth Factor for each zone
ΣTi Target Trip End
Fik= k-1
=
Σti Previous Iteration Trip End

3) Compute Inter-zonal Flows

tijk = tijk-1 [g(Fik, Fjk, …)] for each ij pair

4) Compute
k
Trips
k
Ends
ti = Σtij for each zone i

5) If tik = Ti for each zone i, then stop…

otherwise, go back to “Step 1”
Growth Factor Models: Average Factor Example

Fik + Fjk
Iteration 1: Fij(1) = [Fi(1) + Fj(1)] / 2 g ( )=
1 2 3 4 2
1 1.546 1.606 1.285 1.129
2 1.466 1.526 1.205 1.049 1.41+1.25
1.330=
3 1.711 1.771 1.450 1.294 2
4 1.591 1.651 1.330 1.174
Iteration 2: Fij(2) = [Fi(2) + Fj(2)] / 2
1 2 3 4
1 1.099 1.119 1.051 0.975
2 1.059 1.079 1.011 0.935
3 1.049 1.069 1.001 0.925
4 0.994 1.014 0.946 0.870

tij (2) = tij (1) * Fij (2)

1 2 3 4 ti(2) Ti Fi(3) = Ti / t i(2)
1 0.00 107.78 371.57 628.61 1108 1200 1.08
2 77.65 0.00 499.73 434.55 1012 1050 1.04
3 220.83 115.43 0.00 56.26 393 380 0.97
4 324.31 443.43 94.41 0.00 862 770 0.89
tj(2) 623 667 966 1119
Tj 670 730 950 995
Fj(2) = Tj / t j(1) 1.08 1.10 0.98 0.89
tij (2) = tij (1) * Fij (2)
1 2 3 4 t i(2) Ti Fi(3) = Ti / t i(2)
1 0.00 107.78 371.57 628.61 1108 1200 1.08
2 77.65 0.00 499.73 434.55 1012 1050 1.04
3 220.83 115.43 0.00 56.26 393 380 0.97
4 324.31 443.43 94.41 0.00 862 770 0.89
t j(2) 623 667 966 1119
Tj 670 730 950 995
Fj(2) = Tj / t j(1) 1.08 1.10 0.98 0.89

Iteration 3: Fij(3) = [Fi(3) + Fj(3)] / 2

1 2 3 4
1 1.078 1.088 1.032 0.984
2 1.058 1.068 1.012 0.964
3 1.023 1.033 0.977 0.929
4 0.983 0.993 0.937 0.889

tij (3) = tij (2) * Fij (3)

1 2 3 4 t i(3) Ti Fi(4) = Ti / t i(3)
1 0.00 117.21 383.41 618.82 1119 1200 1.07
2 82.15 0.00 505.66 419.09 1007 1050 1.04
3 225.89 119.19 0.00 52.29 397 380 0.96
4 318.76 440.11 88.45 0.00 847 770 0.91
t j(3) 627 677 978 1090
Tj 670 730 950 995
Fj(4) = Tj / t j(3) 1.07 1.08 0.97 0.91
 Fratar Method
Growth Factor Model
 Fratar Method

t ji
k-1
F j
k
Replace Step 2 with… tij =Ti
k
Σtizk-1Fzk

t ij
k
+ t ji
k
Balance Matrix with… Tij =Tji =
k k
2
Growth Factor Models: Fratar Method Example

Ti Future Trips 115

Fi(1) = = Current Trips = = 2.09
ti(0) 55

Σtizk-1Fzk = (t110)(F11)+(t120)(F21)+(t130)(F31)+(t140)(F41)
=(0)(2.09) + (25)(1.30) + (10)(1.59) +(20)(1.46)
= 78

Σtizk-1Fzk = (t210)(F11)+(t220)(F21)+(t230)(F31)+(t240)(F41)
=(25)(2.09) + (0)(1.30) + (60)(1.59) +(30)(1.46)
= 191
Growth Factor Models: Fratar Method Example

Iteration 1: tij(1) = tij(0) Ti Fj(1) / Σ[tiz(0) Fz(1)]

1 2 3 4
1 0 48 24 43
2 41 0 75 34
3 23 87 0 24
4 38 35 22 0

t431 = (t340)(T4)(F31)/Σ[(t4z0)(Fz1)]
= (15)(95)(1.59) / (105)
= 22
t121 = (t210)(T1)(F21)/Σ[(t1z0)(Fz1)]
= (25)(115)(1.30) / (78)
= 48
Iteration 1: tij(1) = tij(0) Ti Fj(1) / Σ[tiz(0) Fz(1)]
1 2 3 4
1 0 48 24 43
2 41 0 75 34
3 23 87 0 24
4 38 35 22 0

Balance Flows = (tij1 + tji1) / 2

= (22 + 24) / 2
= 23
Balance Flows with [tij(1) + tji(1)] / 2
1 2 3 4 ti(1) Ti Fi(2) Σtiz(1) Fz(2)
1 0 45 23 41 109 115 1.06 106
2 45 0 81 35 160 150 0.94 167
3 23 81 0 23 127 135 1.06 123
4 41 35 23 0 99 95 0.96 100

Now onto Iteration 2…

Balance Flows with [tij(1) + tji(1)] / 2
1 2 3 4 ti(1) Ti Fi(2) Σtiz(1) Fz(2)
1 0 45 23 41 109 115 1.06 106
2 45 0 81 35 160 150 0.94 167
3 23 81 0 23 127 135 1.06 123
4 41 35 23 0 99 95 0.96 100

Iteration 2…
Iteration 2: tij(2) = tij(1) Ti Fj(2) / Σ[tiz(1) Fz(2)]
1 2 3 4
1 0 46 27 42
2 43 0 77 30
3 27 83 0 24
4 41 31 23 0

Balance Flows… & Compute Values

Iteration 3…
Iteration 3: tij(3) = tij(2) Ti Fj(3) / Σ[tiz(2) Fz(3)]
1 2 3 4
1 0 44 29 42
2 43 0 79 29
3 29 81 0 25
4 42 29 24 0

Balance Flows… & Compute Values

 Limitations of the
Fratar Model

 Breaks down mathematically with a new zone

 Convergence to the target year not always possible
 The model does not reflect travel times or cost of
travel between zones
 Thus, this model as well as the other growth factor
models are only used for
 External trips through the zones or
 Short-term horizon years
 The
Gravity
Model
 The Inspiration for
the Gravity Model
The big idea behind the gravity model
is Newton’s law of gravitation…

M1 M 2
F=k
r2
The force of attraction between 2 bodies is
directly proportional to the product of masses
between the two bodies and inversely
proportional to the square of the distance
 The Inspiration for
the Gravity Model
 In terms of transportation planning
and trip distribution:
 The zones correspond to the objects
 The attributes of the zones in terms of the
relative proportion of productions and
attractions represent the mass of the objects
 The distance between the zones is captured
by the distance between the objects
 Some of the Variables

Tij = Qij = Trips Volume between i & j

Fij =1/Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant
pij = Probability that trip i will be attracted to zone j
kij = Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor
 The Gravity Model

Pi Aj FijKij
Tij = Qij = = Pipij
ΣAzFizKij
(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
= Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones

Fij = 1 / Wcij & ln F = - c ln W

The bigger the friction factor,
the more trips that are encouraged
 2 Types of Gravity Models

1. Parametric
 Fits equation to curve
2. Non-parametric
 Uses look-up table for bars
% Trips

Time (min)
 To Apply the Gravity Model

What we need…

1. Productions, {Pi}
2. Attractions, {Aj}
3. Skim Tables {Wij)
 Target-Year Interzonal Impedances
 Gravity Model Example 8.2

 Given:
 Target-year Productions, {Pi}
 Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj}
 Skim Table, {Wij}
 Calibration Factor, c = 2.0
 Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0
 Find:
 Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
 Attractions vs. Attractiveness

 The number of attractions to a particular zone

depends upon the zone’s attractiveness
 As compared to the attractiveness of all the other
competing zones and
 The distance between them
 Two zones with identical attractiveness may
have a different number of attractions due to one’s
remote location
 Thus, substituting attractions for attractiveness
can lead to incorrect results
Given… Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}
Calibration Factor
TAZ Productions TAZ "Attractiveness" TAZ 1 2 3 4 c = 2.0
1 1500 1 0
1 5 10 15 20
2 0 2 3
3 2600 3 2 2 10 5 10 15 Socioeconomic Adj. Factor
3 15 10 5 10
4
Σ
0
4100
4
Σ
5
10 4 20 15 10 5
K = 1.0

Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 0.0025 1 1
2 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 Fij = c = F11= 52 = 0.04
3 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 W ij
4 0.0025 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400

Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σ
1 0.0000 0.0300 0.0089 0.0125 0.0514
2 0.0000 0.1200 0.0200 0.0222 0.1622 AjFijKij=A4F34K34 = (5)(0.01)(1.0)
3
4
0.0000
0.0000
0.0300
0.0133
0.0800
0.0200
0.0500
0.2000
0.1600
0.2333
= 0.05
Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 0.0000 0.5838 0.1730 0.2432 AjFijKij 0.05
2 0.0000 0.7397 0.1233 0.1370
pij = = = 0.3125
3
4
0.0000
0.0000
0.1875
0.0571
0.5000
0.0857
0.3125
0.8571
Σ(AzFizKij) 0.16
Find Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Σ
1 0 876 259 365 1500
2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 488 1300 813 2600 Qij = Pipij = (2600)(0.3125) = 813
4 0 0 0 0 0
Σ 0 1363 1559 1177 4100
Keep in mind that the socioeconomic
factor, K, can be a matrix of value
rather than just one value
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9
2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4
3 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.3
4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6
 Calibration of
the Gravity Model
 When we talk about calibrating the
gravity model, we are referring to
determining the numerical value c
 The reason we do this is to fix the
relationship between the travel-time
factor and the inter-zonal impedance
 Calibration of
the Gravity Model
 Calibration is an iterative process
 We first assume a value of c and then use:

Qij = Pi [ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
Qij = Tij = Trips Volume between i & j
Fij =1 / Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant
 Calibration of
the Gravity Model
 The results are then compared with the
observed values during the base year
 If the values are sufficiently close, keep c
 The results are expressed in terms of the
appropriate equation relating F and W with c
 If not, then adjust c and redo the procedure
 Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

 Compares the observed and computed

Qij values
 Gravity Model
Calibration Example
Given: TAZ
1
Productions
500
TAZ
1
"Attractiveness"
0
2 1000 2 0
Zone 3 10 3 2
5 3
4
0
0 4 3
Zone 2 5 0 5 5
Zone 1 10 5 Σ 1500 Σ 10
Zone 4
Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij}
TAZ 3 4 5

15 15 1 5 10 15
2 10 5 15
Zone 5 Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}
TAZ 3 4 5
5 TAZ City 1 300 150 50
2 180 600 220

Find: c and Kij to fit the base data

 Relating F & W
 Starting with:
1
Fij = c
W ij
 Take the natural log of both sides

ln F = - c ln W ln W

 Now c is the slope of a straight

ln F
line relating ln F and ln W
 Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij} Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}

TAZ 3 4 5 TAZ 3 4 5
1 5 10 15 1 300 150 50
2 10 5 15 2 180 600 220

 Group zone pairs by max Wij

 Sum Interchange Volumes for each set of zone pairs
 Find f = (Σtix) / (Σtij)
W Zone Pairs tij Values Σtij f
5 13, 24 300 600 900 0.60
10 14, 23 150 180 330 0.22
15 15, 25 50 220 270 0.18
Σ 1500 1.00
 First Iteration
Let’s assume c = 2.0
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij} Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}
TAZ 3 4 5 TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 5 10 15 1 300 150 50 500
2 10 5 15 2 180 600 220 1000

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 2.0

1 1
Fij = c = F13=
W ij
= 0.04
52
 First Iteration
c = 2.0 TAZ "Attractiveness"
1 0 Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 2.0
2 0
3 2
4 3
5 5
Σ 10

Aj Fij
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 0.080 0.030 0.022 0.132
2 0.020 0.120 0.022 0.162

[ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 0.605 0.227 0.168 1.000
2 0.123 0.740 0.137 1.000
 First Iteration
c = 2.0
TAZ Productions
[ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
1 500 TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
2 1000
3 0 1 0.605 0.227 0.168 1.000
4 0
5 0 2 0.123 0.740 0.137 1.000
Σ 1500

Qij = Pi [ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 303 113 84 500
2 123 740 137 1000

W Zone Pairs tij Values Σtij f

5 13, 24 303 740 1042.2 0.69
10 14, 23 113 123 236.73 0.16
15 15, 25 84 137 221.02 0.15
Σ 1500 1.00
 Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
5 10 15

Base Year Iteration 2 (c=1.5)

 Second Iteration
Let’s assume c = 1.5
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij} Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}
TAZ 3 4 5 TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 5 10 15 1 300 150 50 500
2 10 5 15 2 180 600 220 1000

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 1.5

TAZ 3 4 5
1 0.089 0.032 0.017
2 0.032 0.089 0.017

1 1
Fij = c = F13= 1.5 = 0.089
W ij 5
 Second Iteration
c = 1.5 TAZ "Attractiveness"
1 0 Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 1.5
2 0
3 2
TAZ 3 4 5
4 3 1 0.089 0.032 0.017
5 5
Σ 10 2 0.032 0.089 0.017

Aj Fij
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 0.179 0.095 0.086 0.360
2 0.063 0.268 0.086 0.418

[ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 0.497 0.264 0.239 1.000
2 0.151 0.642 0.206 1.000
 Second Iteration
c = 1.5
TAZ Productions
[ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
1 500 TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
2 1000
3
4
0
0
1 0.497 0.264 0.239 1.000
5
Σ
0
1500
2 0.151 0.642 0.206 1.000

Qij = Pi [ Aj Fij
Σ(Ax Fix) ]
TAZ 3 4 5 Σ
1 249 132 120 500
2 151 642 206 1000

W Zone Pairs tij Values Σtij f

5 13, 24 249 642 891.06 0.59
10 14, 23 132 151 283.26 0.19
15 15, 25 120 206 325.67 0.22
Σ 1500 1.00
 Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
5 10 15

Base Year Iteration 1 (c=2.0) Iteration 2 (c=1.5)

 K Factors
 Even after calibration, there will typically still be
discrepancies between the observed & calculated data
 To “fine-tune” the model, some employ socioeconomic
adjustment factors, also known as K-Factors
 The intent is to capture special local conditions between some
zonal pairs such as the need to cross a river

1-Xi
Kij = Rij
1 - XiRij
Rij = ratio of observed to calculated Qij (or Tij)
Xi = ratio of the base-year Qij to Pi (total productions of zone i)
 K Factor Example

Observed Qij 300

Rij = Calculated Qij = R13 = 249
= 1.20
Base-Year Qij 300
Xi = Pi = X1 = 500
= 0.60

1-Xi 1-0.6
Kij = Rij = K13 = 1.20 = 1.71
1 - XiRij 1–(0.6)(1.2)
 The Problem with K-Factors

 Although K-Factors may improve the model

in the base year, they assume that these
special conditions will carry over to future
years and scenarios
 This limits model sensitivity and undermines the
model’s ability to predict future travel behavior
 The need for K-factors often is a symptom
of other model problems.
 Additionally, the use of K-factors makes it more
difficult to figure out the real problems
 Limitations of
the Gravity Model
 Too much of a reliance on K-Factors in
calibration
 External trips and intrazonal trips cause
difficulties
 The skim table impedance factors are often too
simplistic to be realistic
 Typically based solely upon vehicle travel times
 At most, this might include tolls and parking costs
 Almost always fails to take into account how things
such as good transit and walkable neighborhoods affect
trip distribution
 No obvious connection to behavioral decision-making
 Limitations of
the Gravity Model
 The model fails to reflect the characteristics of the
individuals or households who decide which destinations
to choose in order to satisfy their activity needs
White Collar Jobs
Zone 3
Income=20000
Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 4
Income=75000
Blue Collar Jobs

 The gravity model does not take this type of situation

into account without using K-Factors… which leads
back into another whole set of problems