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17 predictions for AI in 2026

AI will continue improving rapidly, but real-world economic impacts will be modest.

Dec 31, 2025 • Timothy B. Lee, Kai Williams, James Grimmelmann, Steve Newman, Daniel Abreu Marques, Sophia Tung, Charlie Guo, Abi Olvera, and Florian Brand

Waymo and Tesla’s self-driving systems are more similar than people think

Everyone is moving toward transformer-based, end-to-end architectures.

Dec 17, 2025 • Timothy B. Lee

The best Chinese open-weight models — and the strongest US rivals

The Understanding AI guide to open-weight models.

Dec 15, 2025 • Kai Williams

Google and Anthropic approach LLMs differently

The very different cultures of OpenAI's two most important rivals.

Dec 4, 2025 • Timothy B. Lee

Help some of the poorest people in Rwanda

If readers give $20,000 to GiveDirectly, my wife and I will give another $10,000.

Dec 2, 2025 • Timothy B. Lee

Understanding AI

Exploring how AI works and how it's changing our world.

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