00:00I think in the next two weeks, we're going to be adding two more storms to our list.
00:06One will be in the Atlantic, and I'm still worried about homegrown development.
00:10The forecast feed, or as I call it, the feed brought to you by the AccuWeather Pro site, where you too can be a pro.
00:15Straight out to the satellite here this morning, I want to show you the system that we are watching here.
00:22There we go. Let me put this into motion.
00:25There it is. There's the tropical wave that's coming off Africa right now.
00:28It's going to be going into this area where we have showers and thunderstorms, the numerous.
00:33What this is going to do is, once this gets out in there, what it will end up doing is consolidating all of these showers and the thunderstorms in the one trackable feature.
00:45Now, the question that remains is, are we going to get any development within that area?
00:51And I believe the answer is, resoundingly, yes.
00:54Let me show you the modeling here.
00:55What we're looking at is wind shear.
00:57I'm going to look at the winds at around 40,000 feet, the 200 millibar here.
01:02And what I'm going to show you is, as this tropical wave moves across the Atlantic, it's going to be moving in the low wind shear.
01:09So, I start this out on Monday evening.
01:12That system is going to be right around in here.
01:15And, oh, by the way, we've always mentioned, as long as this stays south of 15 degrees north, right,
01:21it's going to have a good chance to develop because once you get north of 15 degrees north, you get into these darker blues, yellows, and reds.
01:28That's where you have wind shear.
01:29Remember, wind shear weakens systems.
01:32Low wind shear allows them to strengthen.
01:34So, look what's going on here on Monday.
01:36I'm going to play this forward.
01:37You've got this, this upper level high that is across the Atlantic.
01:42Underneath this, you have low wind shear.
01:45That's this on Monday.
01:46So, that's what it looks like on Monday.
01:48And the system is going to be moving into this area.
01:51Look what goes on by Wednesday.
01:52Let's skip ahead toward the middle part of the week.
01:54Where does that high start to shift?
01:56Here near the islands, right?
01:58This is Wednesday evening.
02:00By now, this system is right around in here.
02:03And then as we head into, let's say, Friday, it'll be approaching the islands.
02:07And what do you see?
02:09An area of high pressure building across the island.
02:12So, basically, what's going to happen is this upper high with low wind shear is going to be following the storm as it moves from east to west.
02:21And that's why I feel very strong likelihood that this is going to be developing as we head in the next week.
02:30Not so much early in the week, but by the time this gets to the islands, and when is that going to be?
02:35Late in the week, Thursday into Friday, I think we're going to have Jerry.
02:39I think it's at least a tropical storm.
02:41The question is, where does it go?
02:43There's going to be a fork in the road as we head into next week.
02:48The fork is right in here.
02:50Does it go into the Atlantic, or does it stay in the Caribbean?
02:55If it stays in the Caribbean, we have a huge problem because there's low wind shear here also.
03:00And there's also going to be warm water.
03:02In fact, I want to show you this really quick early next week.
03:05Let's look at the 200 millibar, like as we get into Tuesday.
03:09You see what's going on here?
03:10You see these light colors?
03:12That's low wind shear.
03:13If this system stays into the Caribbean, we're going to not only have a hurricane, we're going to have a major hurricane.
03:19The question is, will it?
03:20I want to show you the computer modeling for this.
03:24I want to show you like I normally do, the European and the American models.
03:28So here we go as we head into Thursday.
03:33So here's the system.
03:34You can see it right here.
03:35You see the yellows, oranges, and reds?
03:38That's our tropical storm, I think, at this point.
03:40This is the European model.
03:42This is the American.
03:43European, American, pretty much in the same area.
03:46Let's head toward Friday evening.
03:47Now, here's the fork in the road.
03:49This is the European model.
03:51The American model has it just getting into the northeastern Caribbean.
03:57There's the European model right near the Virgin Islands.
04:02So they're pretty much in the same area.
04:04Where do they go from there?
04:06Both modeling takes it where?
04:08In the Atlantic.
04:09There's the American.
04:10That's on Saturday.
04:12There's the European, very similar.
04:14And then both.
04:15There's the American steering it out to sea.
04:17There's the European steering it out to sea.
04:19I think that's probably right.
04:23But again, I'm worried.
04:25If this system finds its way into the Caribbean, we have some problems.
04:32Not only because of the wind shear, but take a look at this.
04:36These are the water temperatures.
04:37And these are the anomalies.
04:39Remember, water temperatures here are usually around 83, 84.
04:43These are showing you that water temperature anomalies
04:47or temperatures compared to the historical average
04:50are running about 3 to 4 degrees above historical average.
04:55So that's going to put temperatures well in the 80s, 85, 86, 89 degrees.
05:01If anything finds its way into the Caribbean with low wind shear
05:05and there will be mid to late next week,
05:07we could be looking at a huge problem.
05:09Now, I've been telling you about this pattern for the last month.
05:16Mid-October, about the 15th through the 20th, let's watch this area.
05:22Pattern recognition.
05:23I've been doing this for 35 years.
05:25Anytime you see an area of high pressure building across the mid-Atlantic states,
05:29what ends up happening is this.
05:32You end up getting with a boundary that stalls in here, right?
05:40And when boundaries stall, what do they produce?
05:43Showers and thunderstorms.
05:45And that's the beginning of the tropical process here.
05:48And even when you look at some of the modeling,
05:50I want to show you this coming up next.
05:52Even when you look at some of the modeling,
05:54as we get into this time frame, mid to, let's say, October,
06:02I want to show you this.
06:03Look what goes on here on the 16th.
06:06This is the European model and American model.
06:09They're all showing all this energy.
06:11Where?
06:12Where?
06:13Northwest Caribbean here with the frontal boundary I just draw.
06:16This is the area to watch as we move forward.
06:20Two storms, I think, coming up in the next two weeks.
Be the first to comment