Economic Impact of Events

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, natural gas prices in Europe have stayed far above those in the United States — with serious implications for competitiveness, energy security, and the transition to clean energy. In September 2025, European natural gas averaged $11.1 per MMBtu, 274% higher than the U.S. price of $3.0 per MMBtu — nearly four times as high. Before the crisis, in 2019, Europe’s price was $4.8 per MMBtu, already 87% above the U.S. level. Despite progress on diversifying supply and reducing demand, this persistent price gap underscores the structural challenges Europe faces as it shifts away from fossil fuels while maintaining industrial competitiveness. The long-term answer? Investing in energy efficiency, renewables, and electrification — the only sustainable way to reduce both dependency and exposure to volatile global gas markets.

The energy transition is no longer a moral crusade. Its economic realignment. For the first time, global investment in clean energy has doubled fossil fuel spending: $2.2 trillion to $1.1 trillion. This sends a hard signal of where the next era of value creation is emerging (and where it's not). But this isn't just about how much capital is moving. It’s about where it’s going and what it’s building. Electrification is shifting power away from legacy extraction economies and toward countries and companies that can manufacture, deploy, and scale new systems fast. China understands this — they're electrifying at a pace of 10 percentage points per decade, cementing their position as the world's dominant electrostate. The implications for America are stark, not for lack of capital or innovation, but because our institutions are still optimized for yesterday’s economy. We're at risk of being out-built by countries with clearer industrial strategies and more execution-focused institutions. This moment calls for execution. That means permitting reform. It means workforce pipelines. It means using public capital to unlock private investment at speed and scale. Other nations aren’t hesitating.

🛰️ The front line in #Ukraine is visible from space. Russia's full-scale invasion has left many #farming fields in Ukraine inaccessible or within occupied territory. ☝️ Thousands of square kilometers of Europe's most fertile land are inaccessible for #agriculture and probably contaminated for decades by mines, UXO and poisonous remnants. #NASA Harvest estimated in 2023 that “between 5.2 and 6.9 million acres (2.1-2.8 million hectares) of farmland have been abandoned as a result of the war since its beginning.” The Food and Agriculture Organization of the #UN estimated that due to the Russian invasion and the resulting fighting 2.8 million hectare (almost 7 million acres) of arable land cannot be cultivated. 📉 According to those numbers and the satellite pictures shown, we can assume that the arrival of the Russian army in Ukraine is worse and due to its longevity of the UXO problem more impactful than the almost biblical locust invasion of 2020 in Eastern Africa and Asia, when 2.25 million hectare of cultivated land was destroyed. Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine doesn't just hurt Ukraine. It hurts most of the developing world, who relies on Ukrainian #food products. 🌾 For example, absence of Ukrainian grain drove up grain prices worldwide, increasing the costs of living for those most vulnerable. This is why russian aggression 𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐬 people worldwide. #Satellite #Intelligence #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

I continue to raise awareness of the ongoing risks of #COVID19 to people, businesses, and the economy. A new research study finds that we now have a higher year-round baseline for work absences that resembles the levels we only used to see during flu season before 2020. (It isn't your imagination—people ARE sicker more often today.) The study also found that people leaving the workforce after health-related absences remain higher, even after the public health emergency ended. “Labor force exits after a health-related absence also continued to be elevated, with 13.1% more exits in the postpandemic period compared with before the pandemic (13,500 monthly exits).” The researchers note that “health-related absences also continued to induce some workers to persistently exit the labor force, magnifying their economic costs.” They recommend that “policymakers should consider the consequences for workers, including the value of policies and actions that mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the workplace.” The study concludes, “Ongoing SARS-CoV-2 circulation has continued to negatively affect the US labor force through 2024 by increasing health-related absences and subsequent exits from the labor market.” This data, collected from the Current Population Survey, tells the story of how, even after we decided to pretend that COVID was gone, we never really returned to “normal.” Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to report that disabilities among workers are significantly elevated today compared to the pre-pandemic period, and the number only continues to rise, even in 2025. What does all this mean? For you: COVID is still a risk, not just for acute illness but for chronic health problems, disabilities, productivity, and employment. COVID never went away, nor did it become a seasonal virus, as it frequently surges multiple times a year. Taking some precautions, particularly during periods of high viral activity, is a common-sense decision to protect yourself, your peers, and your family. These include avoiding crowds or wearing masks, particularly when COVID is surging. (In the US, COVID risks are now declining after our recent summer surge, but they will increase again in winter. Meanwhile, much of Europe is now seeing a surge of COVID infections.) For business leaders: COVID is still raising workplace disruptions and costs due to absences, workplace accommodations, healthcare benefits, and turnover. You can lower these risks by improving air quality in the workplace, discouraging presenteeism, and allowing more work from home (especially during surges). Study: https://lnkd.in/gzccSd7k FRED data on disabilities: https://lnkd.in/gbnfCHXH Spreadsheet of 2,600 studies demonstrating COVID's long-term risks to physical and mental health: https://lnkd.in/evRQe2rD

no summer break for gas: gas prices moved into different directions across regions, with geopolitics fuelling volatility in Europe and pipeline constraints driving negative prices in the Permian. in Europe, TTF month-ahead prices jumped by 20% month-on-month to just overt $12/mmbtu -their highest monthly average since Nov23. prices rose despite weak fundamentals: demand remains muted, Norwegian piped flows were strong and storage is filled up to over 92%. the strong increase in prices was primarily driven by geopolitics: rising tensions in the Middle East and the intensifying fighting on the Russian-Ukrainian border. all eyes are on Sudzha, the last operational gas interconnection point where Russian gas flows to Ukraine. in Asia, JKM prices rose by 7% compared to their July levels to an average of $13/mmbtu -their highest level this year. higher European price levels, unplanned outages in Australia and continued demand growth supported stronger prices. in contrast, in the US Henry Hub prices continued to slide to an average of $1.9/mmbtu -their lowest August level since 1998. lower gas burn in the power sector (down by 4% yoy), together with strong associated gas production and high storage levels (80% filled) provided downward pressure. in the Permian, Waha prices collapsed to an average of -$2.2/mmbtu -their lowest monthly average on record. the continued surge in associated petroleum gas and pipeline constraints are practically chocking the Waha hub in a gas oversupply. I'm sure, some industrial consumers in Europe are watching this with a certain envy. what is your view? how will gas markets evolve in the coming months, as we approach the heating season? will weak fundamentals put downward pressure on prices or will geopolitics prevail? #gas #LNG #TTF #JKM #HH

"The Global Fashion Summit, which is typically dominated by large brands offering up a relentlessly optimistic prognosis on the industry’s climate efforts, was unusually downbeat this year... To be sure, advocates for a greener, kinder fashion industry have quietly acknowledged that the movement was struggling for a while. But they held out hope that moves to toughen up regulation would keep forcing things forward. This year, that has all but evaporated," writes Sarah Kent for The Business of Fashion following last week's event. It would be lying to say this wasn't a really visceral feeling in Copenhagen this year. It was a sombre affair with a lot of talk about regulatory rollbacks, team cuts and Trump's tariffs. There were also a lot of people noticeably absent, which Sarah puts down to "squeezed travel budgets and fear (few executives appeared willing to weigh in on an increasingly politically charged topic where there is little positive to say". Her story is, I feel, a really important read right now. While we clamour on about action over conversation, even the conversation about action is getting tough when the environment in which we're operating is under so much pressure. https://lnkd.in/gr-gBBdU Rather than just a pessimistic post, however, I want to point to another piece in BoF last week by Maxine Bédat, which is so central to addressing all of this. "Dear Fashion CEOs, Stop Undermining Climate Action" she calls for in her Op-Ed. https://lnkd.in/gwNCuj22 "In a period of economic and political uncertainty, businesses are stepping back, greenhushing and deprioritising climate programmes. It is clear change won’t come without political support. Real climate leadership from brands means recognising this, speaking out and calling for regulatory change. Instead, many trade groups — including those that represent brands with publicly progressive climate policies — are actively lobbying to undermine tougher environmental regulations, leaning into the political narrative that stiffer oversight is bad for business," she writes. She calls for the industry to not only navigate the turbulence but show up in the storm and lead. The adoption of the French fast fashion bill this week, even in the face of huge lobbying against it, is a ray of light showing that it CAN be done. #sustainablefashion #policy #advocacy #lobbying #sustainability Pictured: On stage at GFS talking "reimagining product realities" exploring how textile waste can not only be addressed and reduced, but valorised. Huge kudos especially to Yayra Agbofah from THE REVIVAL in Ghana for just massively calling out how our flooding of such second hand markets is a failure of the system we're in, not to mention how many solutions are already in action in the Global South if we are willing to work together on them.

Lasting impacts of the pandemic on consumption. It is now more than 4 years since the pandemic started. Probably enough time to observe the permanent changes in US consumer spending. The chart below shows the change since the pre-pandemic period in consumer purchases for selected categories. Since Q4 2019, U.S. consumption behavior has experienced some significant shifts, largely influenced by the pandemic's long-lasting effects on lifestyle and spending patterns. One of the most pronounced changes is the dramatic increase in purchasing of technology and communication equipment. For instance, purchases of telephone-related equipment have surged by 140%, and spending on video, audio, photographic, and information processing equipment has risen by 93%. Another notable trend is the shift toward purchasing of recreational goods rather than services. Purchases of sporting equipment, supplies, guns, and ammunition increased by 51%, while purchases of recreational books rose by 39%. These figures suggest that consumers have turned to home-based or individual recreational activities, perhaps as a lasting change from pre-pandemic behavior. This shift is further emphasized by the relatively modest 4% increase in spending on recreation services, indicating that group-based recreational activities and services have not fully recovered and may face ongoing challenges in returning to pre-pandemic trajectories. Health and wellness have also emerged as a key area of consumer focus. Purchases of paramedical services has increased by 26%, and pharmaceutical and other medical products have seen a 25% rise in expenditures. In contrast, purchases of tobacco have experienced a significant decline. Overall, the data indicates some profound shifts in U.S. consumer behavior since the pandemic, with an increased emphasis on technology, home-based recreation, and health, while some traditional services and goods have seen reduced demand. #economy #consumption #pandemic #labormarkets 

3 years of war in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian IT sector is one of the few industries remaining afloat and standing tall. Despite ongoing challenges, the sector is strengthening its integration into global markets, advancing defence technologies, and continuing to attract international investment. Just a few facts: - Last June, Ukrainian company Creatio raised $200 mln with a valuation of $1.2 bln and became the 6th Ukrainian unicorn; - Kyiv has become home to the world’s second GovTech centre, which is part of the World Economic Forum network; - Ukrainian gov tech platform “Diia” was included in TIME’s list of the best inventions of the year.   According to UkraineInvest - Ukraine Investment Promotion Office, Ukraine’s IT sector grew from 4.5% of GDP in 2021 to 6% in 2024, a key economic stabiliser with strong potential for long-term growth.  Thousands of IT professionals are working through blackouts and airstrikes, maintaining Ukraine's reputation as one of Europe's top countries for IT services.  Today, the IT sector accounts for 38% of all services in Ukraine (as reported by Lviv IT Cluster). According to IT Ukraine Association, Ukrainian IT specialists remain popular among international clients due to the optimal price-quality ratio. According to Dealbook of Ukraine, investments in startups dropped from $832 mln in 2021 to $209 mln in 2023, but the first half of 2024 showed a recovery with $283 mln, driven by Defence tech growth. Innovation plays a crucial role in everyday life in modern Ukraine. It ranges from breakthrough inventions on the frontline to much more peaceful solutions, such as electronic documents on smartphones.   Defence tech stands out not only on Ukraine's IT ecosystem map but also in the world. With $5.2 B in VC funding, +30% growth in two years, and NATO backing over $1 billion in deep tech investments, the defence tech boom is here, and it's real.   Ukraine is already ahead because innovation is a matter of survival for us. The battlefield, the ultimate testing ground for innovation, is changing rapidly, and our engineers and founders are developing solutions that not only protect Ukraine but also strengthen global security.   By the way, right now, we’re accepting applications for the second batch of the Defence Builder — acceleration programme that Sigma Software co-founded with partners to scale defence startups and connect them with investors and militaries with up to $40,000 in funding & networking opportunities.

A 23$ Billion industry suspended in a day! India’s Online Gaming Sector Faces a Shockwave. The Indian gaming ecosystem is in a frenzy after Parliament passed the Online Gaming Bill banning all real-money gaming. Overnight, industry leaders like Dream11, MPL, and Zupee have suspended operations, while players scramble to withdraw funds. What does this mean? • 𝗜𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: A sector once projected to touch $23B in enterprise value could see massive erosion. Over 400 companies and 200,000+ jobs are at risk. • 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘂𝘁: With global capital heavily invested in Indian gaming startups, the move may trigger capital flight and sharp valuation markdowns. • 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵 & 𝗔𝗱 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁: Payment gateways processing billions in gaming transactions monthly, and celebrity endorsements in cricket and entertainment, will feel the squeeze. • 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗶𝘃𝗼𝘁𝘀: Firms are rushing to rebrand—exploring free-to-play, ad-supported, and e-sports models to survive. • 𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱: Expect courtroom challenges, especially around the debate of “games of skill” vs. “games of chance.” This isn’t just about gaming—it’s about the future of digital entrepreneurship, regulation, and consumer freedom in India. The balance between protecting consumers and enabling innovation will define what comes next. Do you think this ban is a necessary safeguard or a setback to India’s digital economy? #Gaming #DigitalIndia #Startups #Regulation #Investing

Europe's energy crisis and extreme fuel costs emerged as a dominant narrative in the two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, but tumbling natural gas prices have quelled concerns. But strategists at Goldman Sachs aren't convinced the continent is in the clear.  European gas prices are down 37% since November, which has allowed Europe to build up a sizable inventory of fuel. But that's occurred during the 2nd-warmest winter of the last decade. "While the decline in gas prices may leave the impression that Europe has solved its energy crisis, we believe the crisis is not over yet, and we have one more winter to go through before fully allaying the risk of extreme gas prices re-emerging," Goldman Sachs strategists said. In their view, improvements in near-term LNG supply haven't resolved the structural deficit and lost imports from Russia. Prices in turn remain vulnerable to supply interruptions or fluctuations in demand. European gas still "has one more winter to go," the strategists said, given that cold weather can cause demand to spike, which would deplete inventory and push prices higher. Full story on Business Insider: https://lnkd.in/gvZ55gPx #energy #europe #economy #markets #lng