Global Economic Trends

WIPO’s global report on IP filings is out and records are being broken. 2024 saw the highest ever patent filings – 3.7 million worldwide. Design filings also peaked at a record 1.6 mln, while trademark filings stabilized after two years of decline. But within this rich trove of data from nearly 150 IP offices, a few deeper insights stand out. First, emerging and developing countries continue to embrace IP-driven growth and transformation, whether driven by the need to diversify engines of growth, support increasing aspirations of local innovators and entrepreneurs, create more attractive investment environments, or simply seek new sources of growth. For the sixth consecutive year, India posts double-digit growth in patent filings, with Türkiye also up some 15%. Among the top 20 countries of origin, 12 saw increases in trademark filings, led by Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia, and with strong growth in upper middle-income economies like Colombia, South Africa, Thailand and Viet Nam. Design filings tell a similar story, with the fastest growth in India, Morocco and Indonesia. What this means is that many emerging economies are following the path of the world’s established innovation powerhouses in using IP as a strategic lever for economic growth, diversification, development and resilience. The next challenge is commercializing more of these filings, so they become real-world products and services. Second, we’re seeing more domestic, or “resident” filings. In areas like trademarks and designs, resident filings have traditionally made up the vast majority (+70%) as local businesses often register IP to protect brands and designs serving domestic markets. Now, we’re seeing the same dynamics in patents. Resident patent filings grew almost 7% last year, the fastest rise since 2016, to 72% of the total. This growth in domestic filings suggests that innovation ecosystems are maturing (even for high-tech discoveries, inventors typically file at home first before expanding abroad). It may also reflect shifts in global trade flows, with some industries becoming more localized. Third, many of the major trends in recent years continue to accelerate. Just as AI and digital innovation dominate the headlines, computer technology remains the top field for patent activity, with its growth outpacing all others. The gender balance in innovation is also improving. The proportion of women inventors in international patent applications has increased from 11.6% in 2010 to 18% last year. Beyond the individual data points, the value of this report lies in what it reveals about the global state of innovation and the direction it’s heading. This year’s WIPI shows that people everywhere continue to believe in the power of IP to protect ideas and incentivize innovation, and it gives WIPO the energy to continue strengthening IP ecosystems everywhere to give these innovators and creators the tools to protect and commercialize their ideas. 🔗 https://ow.ly/gub150XqnE7

Quantum computing is no longer speculative—it’s becoming an investment priority. In 2023, European quantum startups outpaced North America, raising $781 million (three times the $240 million raised in the US). Globally, quantum startups raised $2.2 billion, a massive jump from $522 million in 2019. This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Governments are fueling the momentum. The UK has committed $4.3 billion to quantum technologies, while Germany has pledged $3.7 billion. At the same time, VC interest is holding steady, even as funding dries up in other tech sectors.   Quantum technology will have a wide-reaching impact, from cybersecurity and financial modeling to drug discovery and materials science. Pharma will likely see the earliest impact (drug development and molecular simulations using quantum).   In 2022, Finnish startup Algorithmiq raised $4 million for quantum-powered drug discovery, while Paris-based Qubit Pharmaceuticals secured $17 million for molecular simulations. Another European company, Terra Quantum AG, based in Switzerland, raised $75 million to scale its quantum-as-a-service model, which has direct applications in pharma and beyond.   Big Tech is also all-in. Google, IBM, Intel Corporation, and NVIDIA are pouring resources into quantum hardware and software. Meanwhile, publicly traded quantum companies have seen their stocks surge, signaling growing institutional confidence.   At APEX Ventures, we invest in revolutionary quantum startups. We are partnered with kiutra, enabling the second quantum revolution with easy-to-use and sustainable cryogenics, and planqc, building quantum computers that store information in individual atoms.   For founders and investors, the question isn’t whether quantum will matter—it’s when. The trajectory is clear: capital is flowing, enterprise adoption is accelerating, and governments are fully committed. If AI dominated the last decade, quantum may own the next.   #Venturecapital #AI #Deeptech #Startups  Follow us at APEX Ventures and subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive content on groundbreaking Deep Tech startups:   🔗 https://t2m.io/EV2qHQuo

TikTok’s spectacular success is not only changing #socialmedia but also brings about far-reaching, cross-industry repercussions that touch e-commerce, digital #advertising, #payments and beyond. Let’s take a look. TikTok is the first Chinese app to take off in the west. Originally launched in 2016 as Douyin by Chinese tech company ByteDance, it became available worldwide in 2018 and is now active in 154 countries. It has managed to reach 1 billion users faster than any other social media app. As in most successful businesses, the concept behind is fairly simple: a video-sharing app that makes it extremely easy for users to create and share short videos. Plus one major novelty that has made all the difference: contrary to other social-media platforms, TikTok is not dependent on one’s network of friends or acquaintances but it has an extremely fast-learning algorithm that brings up videos – from its entire database – based on what users like. As a result, anyone can go viral without the need for thousands or millions of connections or followers. The statistics speak volumes: TikTok users spend on average over 1.5 hours on the platform with 60% belonging to Generation Z (born during the late 1990s and early 2000s). In the US, TikTok has become the most popular place to watch videos, overtaking all other social media platforms. It is, therefore, not by accident that major players, from Meta (Facebook) to YouTube to Pinterest and to even Netflix, have been trying – with limited success – to emulate TikTok’s model and practices. Beyond the appeal of short, funny videos, TikTok’s ascend is changing the name of the game in a number of industries. Start with #digital advertising: According to Omdia, TikTok's advertising revenues will increase from $13 bn in 2022 to $44 bn by 2027, while TikTok Douyin (the app in China) will skyrocket from $28 bn to $76 bn. By 2027 online video advertising will generate over $331 bn globally, with TikTok accounting for 37% of those revenues or $120 bn. For comparison, YouTube and Meta combined, are estimated to hold 24% of the market or $77 bn. On the #ecommerce side, TikTok has launched in various geographies (i.e. UK, Southeast Asia, US) live shops on user profiles so that users can make purchases without leaving the app. If TikTok gets this right, shopping live-streams can be the next big thing in e-commerce, boosting revenues and brand loyalty. In China, TikTok now generates most of its revenue from direct in-app sales and is rapidly taking away market share from established e-commerce giants like JD and Alibaba. Douyin is heavily betting (in China) in the so-called “interest e-commerce” (driven by people’s interests and passions), hoping to increasingly attract consumers via a multi-channel approach (short videos, livestreaming, searches, etc). The world is changing faster than we think (and definitely swifter than some can follow). Opinions: my own, Graphic sources: WSJ, Statista, BM Toolbox

In 2024, China produced more than 1 billion tons of crude steel, over half the world’s supply. India, the world’s #2 producer, delivered less than one-sixth of that. Yet reports suggest Beijing will cut output to address overcapacity, falling prices, and rising global protectionism. For executives, the insight isn’t just China’s dominance. It’s the strategic exposure this creates. With 53% of global production tied to one economy, shifts in Chinese policy, demand, or environmental regulation can send shockwaves through construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure supply chains worldwide.    The question for leaders isn’t just “who makes the steel,” but how to future-proof against a supply base so concentrated in a single market—whether that means diversifying sources or rethinking regional resilience strategies. #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #Manufacturing  

Let’s talk about copper imports and some of the complexity right now in anticipating overall effects on users (both in terms of timing and magnitude of effects). Two charts below (one my own, one reproduced from Bloomberg, originally from https://lnkd.in/g__Rvwet). Thoughts: •The top chart shows metric tons of imported copper cathodes & sections of cathodes (HTS 7403.11.0000), which is by far the largest imported type of manufactured copper product (HTS 74), with 2024 imports totaling $8.47 billion dollars (out of $17.2 billion in imports for all of HTS 74, or about 49.4%). In 2024, the average month saw ~75,000 tons of imports. April and May 2025 (last two data points) saw imports of 201,434 and 218,133 tons, respectively (or 2.7x and 2.9x prior year average monthly imports). This frontloading means there is a large stockpile of copper already in the USA that won’t be hit with tariffs. •However, before spiking the inflation football and saying “well, then there will be no inflation”, you need to look at the second chart. This shows the percent premium for US copper futures (Comex) relative to the London Metal Exchange. Normally, that premium is quite low. However, it exploded in 2025, reaching over 20% since 7/8 (when the 50% copper tariffs were announced). For reference, LME copper trades around $10,000 a ton today. What this means is that US users of copper have been paying a 5-15% premium for copper relative to firms in other countries over the past few months, which has now increased to above 20% (and this is before tariffs take effect). •Why does that price premium matter? Simple: higher copper prices in the USA reduce the competitiveness of US exports that contain copper. Moreover, it’s important to remember that far more people are employed in industries that use copper versus the entire copper mining, smelting, refining, and product industrial complex. Simple example: electrical equipment and component manufacturers (NAICS 335) employ 400,000 workers (https://lnkd.in/gEXCTusE), with electrical products extensively using copper. In contrast, the USGS reports just 13,000 workers in the entire copper industrial complex in the USA (https://lnkd.in/gU-pftdr). Implication: Copper tariffs are another example where we are tariffing an upstream intermediate input used by far more workers than employed in the industry that makes the upstream intermediate input. Such trade policies are net job killers, and have even been termed self-harming trade policy (https://lnkd.in/gWgxQjtY). #economics #markets #shipsandshipping #supplychain #construction #supplychainmanagement #manufacturing 

We are proud to release World Intellectual Property Organization – WIPO’s 2024 World Intellectual Property Indicators (WIPI) Report. This is our flagship data and statistics report which captures global IP activity. Access the WIPI report and explore the latest IP trends and data: https://lnkd.in/exen7uQq This report helps us understand shifts in innovation, identify high-growth regions and sectors and make informed decisions that support economic resilience and sustainable growth. It is an invaluable tool for policymakers to shape IP strategies, businesses to capitalize on emerging opportunities and researchers to track global innovation dynamics. 2023 IP statistics: ·      Patents: 3.55 million applications (+2.7% growth) ·      Trademarks: 15.23 million classes (a decline of -2%) ·      Industrial Designs: 1.52 million designs (+2.8% growth) ·      Plant Variety: 29,070 (+6.6% growth) Key Highlights from the report: 1)   Historic growth in patent filings In 2023, global patent applications hit an unprecedented 3.55 million. This marks the fourth consecutive year of growth. China, the US, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Germany lead in global patent filings.   2)   Asia’s leading role in IP Offices located in Asia now accounts for 68.7%, 66.7% and 69% of global patent, trademark and industrial design filing activity in 2023, highlighting Asia’s expanding influence as a powerhouse of global innovation.   3)   India’s rapid rise in patent filings Among the top countries, India recorded the fastest growth in applications with a 15.7% increase in patent filings, reflecting its rapidly growing economy. Many thanks to Carsten Fink, WIPO’s Chief Economist, and the Statistics and Data Analytics team Mosahid Khan, Hao Zhou, Ryan Lamb, Bruno Le Feuvre and Kyle Bergquist for their work in compiling and analyzing this data. Access the WIPI report: https://lnkd.in/exen7uQq #WIPI2024 #GlobalInnovation #IntellectualProperty #WIPO #Patents #Trademarks #IndustrialDesigns #IPData #InnovationEcosystem

COLUMN: Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the last 25 years. And now, it’s over: The greatest commodity boom thus far of the 21st century has ended. China inflated it — and China, too, is bringing it down. The cost of the reddish dirt, which turns into steel inside blast furnaces, has fallen already below $100 a metric ton, down 55% from its all-time high of almost $220 a ton set in 2021. Beyond, the outlook looks somber as Chinese steel demand reaches a zenith. Pinpointing the exact date is foolhardy, but now it’s becoming clear that China hit peak steel demand somewhere between 2020 and earlier this year. The reason? The shift in its economic model to services and away from heavy investment and housing construction.  During previous downturns, Beijing rescued its economy — and thus the iron ore and steel sectors — by indulging in a debt-fueled binge of construction. It’s unlikely that China will do so this time. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to Hu Wangming, chairman of China Baowu Steel Group Corp., the world’s largest steelmaker, who last week predicted a “severe winter” for the sector. The downturn, he said, would be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure” than he had previously expected. Because China nowadays produces more than half the world’s steel, what happens there matters enormously. Other nations may take over as engines of steel demand. India is the most obvious candidate. Unfortunately for the global seaborne iron ore market, India has enormous domestic ore resources, and is likely to do it without imports for years to come. On its own, China’s peak steel demand would mark a setback, but it wouldn’t signal a disaster for iron ore. After all, Chinese steel consumption will remain at a high plateau for years to come, rather fall sharply. Beijing may not be building as many houses as in the past, therefore reducing demand for so-called “long steel” — beams, rods and similar stuff. But the country still needs lots of steel to make stuff its consumers want. That’s the so-called “flat steel” used for new cars, fridges and the lot. The slowdown in China comes, crucially, as a new generation of large, low-cost mines in Australia and Africa start production. That mix is the problem because it means the iron ore market, already oversupplied in the first half of this year, would remain in surplus in 2025, 2026, 2027 and probably 2028, too. Macquarie Bank Ltd., an Australian lender, says that the current surplus is “one of the worst” ever. More via Bloomberg Opinion in the link below.

By the time you finishing reading this line, six beauty products will have sold on TikTok Shop in the UK. The platform now ranks as the UK’s fourth-largest beauty retailer, behind only Amazon, Boots UK and LOOKFANTASTIC.COM (NielsenIQ). What began as an entertainment platform has evolved into a commercial force redefining how brands launch, market and sell. The UK’s social commerce market is forecast to more than double to £15.7bn by 2028, to account for 11% of online sales according to Retail Economics. Beauty is the crown jewel of social commerce. Our research found that two in five UK social media users have purchased beauty products on social platforms such as TikTok – more than any other category. Its visual, demonstrative nature is perfectly matched to short-form video, where tutorials, transformations and real-world reviews drive discovery and conversion – driven by creators, community and authenticity. Boots UK was one of the first movers with TikTok for Business Video Shopping Ads to make premium beauty more accessible. This closed-loop approach placed shoppable content directly into users’ For You feeds. Now Estée Lauder, owner of Aveda, Bobbi Brown and Clinique, has committed to tripling new product launches on social platforms over the next years. It’s an important reminder of how traditional retailers can embrace new channels by investing, testing and adapting. The rise of social commerce doesn’t stop at beauty. Apparel, home, food and electricals are all fast-growing categories. Younger, affluent shoppers are leading this shift. And if brands want to capture the spend of this core demographic, they need to be where the eyeballs are. Great to discuss this with The Times’ Isabella Fish for their print feature – article linked below. https://lnkd.in/ejSgGAfy   ____________________________________ ⤴ Follow me for weekly retail, consumer and economic insights. ____________________________________

Curious what analysts at Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi say about the economy? There is research from Wall Street investment banks online for free, but it would take a lot of time and effort to find and digest it. At Pricing Culture, we’ve teamed up with Dmitry Shapiro's MindStudio to create a content library and agent that makes it easy to generate analysis and reports based on this primary research. We identify the investment banks that post research on the web and use AI to summarize those posts. The Pricing Culture articles are then connected to a MindStudio account that allows users to build agents. As a test case, I asked the agent to “Analyze investment bank research to determine now changes in tariff policies would impact the economy.” What’s different from using a large language model like Perplexity or ChatGPT is that the sources are constrained to a curated set of content, ensuring a higher level of accuracy. I'll leave a link to the full MindStudio report in the comments Here are the ten big takeaways: -Wall Street forecasts significant economic slowdown due to tariffs, with JP Morgan assigning a 60% probability of recession in 2025 and Morgan Stanley revising US growth to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 -Despite a 90-day pause on some reciprocal tariffs, the effective US tariff rate remains historically high at approximately 22-23%, significantly above pre-2025 levels -Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan predict dollar weakness against major currencies, with forecasts of 10% decline against the euro and approximately 9% against the yen and pound over the next 12 months -China’s growth forecasts have been downgraded by multiple banks, with Goldman Sachs reducing projections to 4% for 2025 despite anticipated policy easing measures of approximately $823 billion -Tariffs are expected to boost inflation in the short term, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until 2026 according to Morgan Stanley, contrary to previous expectations of cuts in 2025 -European economies face significant headwinds from US tariffs, with JP Morgan reducing eurozone GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for 2025, a 1.5% reduction primarily attributed to US trade policies -Sector analysis shows Capital Goods companies with strong pricing power may outperform, while Consumer Discretionary is identified as most vulnerable to tariff impacts -Metals markets are projected to experience significant price declines, with JP Morgan forecasting average Q2 2025 prices of $2,200/mt for aluminum, $900/st for HRC steel, and $8,300/mt for copper -Gold is expected to benefit from tariff uncertainty, with JP Morgan forecasting prices to reach approximately $3,000/oz in 2025, partly driven by its role as a hedge against trade tensions -Wall Street research indicates that even if countries successfully negotiate tariff adjustments, lingering effects and potential for new tariffs will continue to negatively impact economic outlook through 2025e. 

fertilisers flurry: the EU increased its fertilisers imports from Russia by more than 40% yoy in 8M 2024, translating into a bill of €1.1 billion -standing 20% above its 2021 levels. the European Union increased its fertilisers imports by over 10% yoy in the first 8M 2024, which is partly due to lower stock levels following 2022/23 when both production and imports were down (with the gas crisis fuelling record high fertiliser prices). Russia alone accounted for 85% of the EU's incremental fertilisers imports in 8M 2024, translating into additional sales volumes of around 1 Mt. mixed fertilisers were driving this strong growth, with their deliveries rising by more than 80%, while nitrogenous fertiliser sales were up by around 13%. Russian potassic fertilisers imports more than doubled, albeit from a relatively low basis. the large agricultural EU countries were driving up Russian fertilisers imports. Poland, France, Italy and Spain accounted for 80% of incremental Russian fertiliser imports. in contrast, Germany's fertilisers imports from Russia dropped by 17%, although some of this might have been offset by indirect fertiliser supplies from Russia. as a consequence of this strong growth, Russia's share in EU fertilisers imports increased from around 21% in 2023 to near 28% in 2024 -a share similar to its 2021 levels. in the meantime, Russia's ammonia production (a key input to fertiliser production) rose by near 7% yoy in the first three quarters of 2024 -partly reflecting the strong demand growth in key import markets. it will be interesting to see how Russia's strategy will evolve in scaling-up its gas chemical/fertiliser industry -which is not under sanctions. the added value of these sectors is significantly greater than simply selling piped gas. while Russia is facing a domestic overcapacity, gas chemicals and fertilisers seems to be a natural outlet... what is your view? how will Europe's fertiliser dependency evolve? what does it mean for food supply security? what can be done to scale-up domestic production? #gas #LNG #TTF #fertilisers #ammonia