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| Open AccessImproving forest ecosystem functions by optimizing tree species spatial arrangement
Planting diverse forests is widely promoted as a way to counter climate change and improve ecosystem functioning. This study finds that the spatial arrangement of tree species matters: forests with higher spatial mixing of tree species yield greater biomass, faster nutrient cycling, and thus enhanced ecosystem functioning.
- Rémy Beugnon
- , Georg Albert
- & Nico Eisenhauer
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Article
| Open AccessTaylor’s law predicts unprecedented pulses of forest disturbance under global change
Large pulses of disturbance have been observed globally in response to climate change. Using Taylor’s Law, the authors show that those pulses were not unpredictable but expected given a strong scaling between mean disturbance rates and variability of disturbances rates through time.
- Cornelius Senf
- , Rupert Seidl
- & Tommaso Jucker
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| Open AccessMapping previously undetected trees reveals overlooked changes in pan-tropical tree cover
Accurate tree cover mapping is vital for fighting climate change and land degradation. This high-resolution study reveals that 17% of pan-tropical tree cover was previously undetected, with over half of recent losses linked to human activities.
- Shidong Liu
- , Jie Zhang
- & Zheng Niu
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| Open AccessGlobal land and carbon consequences of mass timber products
This study reveals that global adoption of mass timber products can expand forestland, increase carbon stocks in forest and wood products, and decrease life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions.
- Kai Lan
- , Alice Favero
- & Hannah Szu-Han Wang
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| Open AccessGlobal risk of wildfire across timber production systems
Timber plantations in temperate countries are twice as likely to be destroyed by wildfires compared to natural wood-producing forests under similar conditions. The increasing threat of wildfires in the future will threaten global wood security.
- Christopher G. Bousfield
- , Oscar Morton
- & David P. Edwards
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Article
| Open AccessEngineering transverse cell deformation of bamboo by controlling localized moisture content
Bamboo’s native structure, defined by the vertical growth pattern of its vascular bundles and parenchyma cell tissue, limits its application in advanced engineering materials. Here the authors show a method that controls localized moisture content to shape natural bamboo into a versatile three-dimensional structural product.
- Tian Bai
- , Jie Yan
- & Chaoji Chen
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Article
| Open AccessTemperate forests can deliver future wood demand and climate-change mitigation dependent on afforestation and circularity
This paper analyzes climate change mitigation potential of forest management practices under wood demand scenarios, finding that increasing wood use can be beneficial only with increased productivity and use efficiency.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , David Styles
- & John R. Healey
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Article
| Open AccessEffective integration of drone technology for mapping and managing palm species in the Peruvian Amazon
High-resolution drone data can enhance sustainable forest management. Here, authors demonstrate a cost-effective method using drones and deep learning to map and manage economically important palm species in the Peruvian Amazon, significantly reducing inventory costs and time.
- Ximena Tagle Casapia
- , Rodolfo Cardenas-Vigo
- & Timothy R. Baker
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Article
| Open AccessHedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s climate goals depends on safeguarding and monitoring the permanence of forest carbon stocks, as delays in addressing their vulnerability to disturbances drastically increase mitigation costs and efforts.
- Michael G. Windisch
- , Florian Humpenöder
- & Alexander Popp
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| Open AccessTemporal stability of forest productivity declines over stand age at multiple spatial scales
Forest productivity stability should increase with succession. However, examining forest inventory dataset from the eastern United States, the authors find that productivity stability decreased with stand age and recommend protecting species diversity at multiple scales.
- Rongxu Shan
- , Ganxin Feng
- & Zilong Ma
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Article
| Open AccessEmissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions
Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities, like oil crops, could cut land-use emissions but risk emissions leakage globally and economic losses for producers. Direct forest protection may be more effective than import restrictions.
- Brinda Yarlagadda
- , Xin Zhao
- & Jonathan Lamontagne
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Article
| Open AccessSystematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects
Carbon markets are key in climate strategies, but only 16% of carbon credits represent real emission reductions, based on a study of 2,346 projects. Reforms are needed to improve the effectiveness of carbon crediting mechanisms in addressing climate change.
- Benedict S. Probst
- , Malte Toetzke
- & Volker H. Hoffmann
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| Open AccessUS land sector mitigation investments and emissions implications
There are continuing questions on how much investments in land-based mitigation activities could deliver in terms of abatement. This study shows that annual investments of $2.4billion in the U.S. land could deliver abatement of around 80 MtCO2e/yr.
- Alice Favero
- , Christopher M. Wade
- & Bruce A. McCarl
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Article
| Open AccessRoad fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area
Widespread global occurrence of roads break up the landscape and may be a powerful driver of increasing fire activity and intensity in less populated and less frequently burned regions, such as tropical forests, while decreasing fire on average at global scale.
- Simon P. K. Bowring
- , Wei Li
- & Philippe Ciais
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| Open AccessMapping multi-dimensional variability in water stress strategies across temperate forests
Tree functional strategies regulate responses to water stress, but how these strategies scale up to the forest community level is not well known. This study shows coherent spatial variation in community-level trait associations across temperate forests that is linked to temperature.
- Daijun Liu
- , Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
- & Thomas A. M. Pugh
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Article
| Open AccessChanges in planned and unplanned canopy openings are linked in Europe’s forests
Forest canopy openings may be caused by planned human intervention or by drivers such as fire, wind disturbance and pest outbreaks. Here, the authors present a high-resolution map and attribution analysis showing that planned and unplanned canopy openings often co-occur in European forests.
- Rupert Seidl
- & Cornelius Senf
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Article
| Open AccessCarbon storage through China’s planted forest expansion
The dynamics of planted forests in China over the past three decades have contributed ~1198tg of above-ground carbon storage.
- Kai Cheng
- , Haitao Yang
- & Qinghua Guo
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| Open AccessMaximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management
The authors show China’s forests can sequester 172.3 million tons of carbon per year in biomass by 2100, with an additional 28.1 million tons from improved management practices, but neglecting wood harvest impacts will distort long-term future projections.
- Zhen Yu
- , Shirong Liu
- & Evgenios Agathokleous
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Article
| Open AccessAccounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration
Restoring tree cover is a prominent climate solution but can cause global warming due to changes in albedo. This paper maps albedo and carbon changes from restoring tree cover to highlight where the greatest net climate benefits can be achieved.
- Natalia Hasler
- , Christopher A. Williams
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
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Article
| Open AccessFire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation
Fire suppression removes less-extreme wildfires, concentrating fires under extreme conditions. The authors use model simulations to show how this “suppression bias” intensifies fire behavior and effects, beyond fuel accumulation and climate change impacts.
- Mark R. Kreider
- , Philip E. Higuera
- & Andrew J. Larson
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Article
| Open AccessScattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California
Tree mortality due to climate change and other disturbances is on the rise. Here, the authors use high-resolution remote sensing data, ground observations and deep learning to quantify individual dead trees and potential drivers across California in the year 2020, encompassing 91.4 million dead trees.
- Yan Cheng
- , Stefan Oehmcke
- & Stéphanie Horion
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| Open AccessMixed success for carbon payments and subsidies in support of forest restoration in the neotropics
Forest restoration in LMICs can contribute to global C mitigation targets. Here, the authors assess the economic feasibility of forest restoration methods in Panama, i.e. natural regeneration, native species plantings, and enrichment planting, showing that not all methods are economically viable.
- Katherine Sinacore
- , Edwin H. García
- & Jefferson S. Hall
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Article
| Open AccessUncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets
This study reveals high variability in deforestation emission baselines typically used to derive carbon credits, with median error at 0.778 times the actual rate. It underscores the need for enhanced methods to improve carbon market accuracy and reliability.
- Hoong Chen Teo
- , Nicole Hui Li Tan
- & Lian Pin Koh
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Article
| Open AccessCircular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination
Cascading and especially circular wood uses enhance climate-change mitigation achieved by forestry. In combination, these measures could cumulatively mitigate 258.8 million tonnes CO2e by 2050 in the UK but implementation barriers must be overcome.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Article
| Open AccessThe effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation
Protected areas are important for climate change mitigation. Here, the authors use satellite data and statistical matching to show that terrestrial protected areas have higher C stocks than non-protected areas, roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions.
- L. Duncanson
- , M. Liang
- & A. Zvoleff
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Article
| Open AccessSoil organic carbon is a key determinant of CH4 sink in global forest soils
Soil organic carbon has a positive effect on the removal of methane in forest soils. Global forests are found to be larger sinks of methane than previously estimated when the influence of SOC is considered.
- Jaehyun Lee
- , Youmi Oh
- & Hojeong Kang
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Article
| Open AccessMore than one quarter of Africa’s tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as forest
Recent analyses have suggested that tree cover in non-forest ecosystems may be much higher than expected. Here, the authors map tree cover down to the individual tree level for the entire continent of Africa and find that almost 30% is found outside areas classified as forests.
- Florian Reiner
- , Martin Brandt
- & Rasmus Fensholt
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| Open AccessHigh economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests
Tropical forest ecosystems supply ecosystem services of global importance. Here, the authors show that climate change reduces climate regulation and habitat services in Central American forests and results in high economic costs.
- Lukas Baumbach
- , Thomas Hickler
- & Marc Hanewinkel
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Article
| Open AccessMangrove reforestation provides greater blue carbon benefit than afforestation for mitigating global climate change
Blue carbon benefit has not been compared among mangrove reforestation and afforestation pathways at the global scale. This study shows that mangrove reforestation could perform a greater carbon storage potential per hectare than afforestation as its higher nitrogen availability and lower salinity.
- Shanshan Song
- , Yali Ding
- & Guanghui Lin
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Article
| Open AccessClimate teleconnections modulate global burned area
Here the authors find that climate teleconnections modulate ~53 % of the global burned area with both synchronous and lagged signals, and marked regional patterns, with the Tropical North Atlantic mode being the most relevant.
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
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Article
| Open AccessLand tenure drives Brazil’s deforestation rates across socio-environmental contexts
How land-tenure regimes affect deforestation remains ambiguous. This study shows how deforestation in Brazil is land-tenure dependent, and how strategies to effectively reduce deforestation can range from strengthening poorly defined rights to strengthening conservation-focused regimes.
- Andrea Pacheco
- & Carsten Meyer
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Article
| Open AccessLeakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil
This research quantifies the role of zero deforestation policies and potential leakages in Brazilian soybean production, the third major driver of deforestation globally. Here the authors provide the first estimates of net global avoided soy-driven deforestation from zero-deforestation import restrictions and find that such restrictions could help avoid ~40% of deforestation for soy cultivation in Brazil and ~2% of global deforestation.
- Nelson Villoria
- , Rachael Garrett
- & Kimberly Carlson
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Article
| Open AccessForest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980
The impact of land-use and cover-change (LUCC) on ecosystem carbon stock in China is poorly known due to large biases in existing databases. Here the authors develop a new LUCC database with corrected false signals and reveal that forest expansion is the dominant driver of China’s recent carbon sink.
- Zhen Yu
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Guoyi Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessLand use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities
Wood used in construction stores carbon and reduces the emissions from steel and cement production. Transformation to timber cities while protecting forest and biodiversity is possible without significant increase in competition for land.
- Abhijeet Mishra
- , Florian Humpenöder
- & Alexander Popp
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Article
| Open AccessRates and drivers of aboveground carbon accumulation in global monoculture plantation forests
Tree planting is a promising yet controversial natural climate solution. Here the authors perform a global analysis of aboveground C accumulation in tree monocultures, identifying key predictors such as prior land use, taxonomic identity, and plant traits.
- Jacob J. Bukoski
- , Susan C. Cook-Patton
- & Matthew D. Potts
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Article
| Open AccessDeforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests
Warming and drying from deforestation could amplify carbon storage losses in tropical remaining forests. Here the authors report this value to be extra 5.1% in the Amazon and 3.8% in Congo as compared to the direct biomass loss from deforestation.
- Yue Li
- , Paulo M. Brando
- & James T. Randerson
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Article
| Open AccessContrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations
How forests influence cloud cover in different regions is not well understood. Here, the authors use satellite data to show that forests enhance clouds over most temperate and boreal forests but inhibited clouds over forests of Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast US relative to nonforest areas.
- Ru Xu
- , Yan Li
- & Bojie Fu
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| Open AccessElevated growth and biomass along temperate forest edges
Studies from tropical regions indicate that fragmented forests are less productive. Here, the authors report higher growth and biomass in temperate forest edges in North America, and show that temperate forests are more fragmented than tropical forests globally.
- Luca L. Morreale
- , Jonathan R. Thompson
- & Lucy R. Hutyra
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities
Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. The authors here investigate in spatio-temporal variations in their cooling effect and find 8-12 K decreased temperatures for tree-rich urban areas in Central Europe during hot summers, and up to 4 K for Southern Europe, respectively.
- Jonas Schwaab
- , Ronny Meier
- & Edouard L. Davin
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Article
| Open AccessAltered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020
We combine data from global forest resource assessments with a forest model to quantify the role of major drivers of net carbon fluxes from global forest biomass at national resolution between 1990 and 2020. We find that growth-condition changes, more than reforestation, counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions mostly driven by deforestation.
- Julia Le Noë
- , Karl-Heinz Erb
- & Simone Gingrich
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Article
| Open AccessRevealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover
Forests can influence climate by affecting low cloud formation, but where and when this occurs is not well known. Here, the authors provide a global-scale assessment, based on satellite remote sensing observations, suggesting afforestation mostly increases low cloud cover which could potentially cool surface temperatures.
- Gregory Duveiller
- , Federico Filipponi
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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Article
| Open AccessRecovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Niño
It is unclear whether tropical forest fragments within plantation landscapes are resilient to drought. Here the authors analyse LiDAR and ground-based data from the 2015-16 El Niño event across a logging intensity gradient in Borneo. Although regenerating forests continued to grow, canopy height near oil palm plantations decreased, and a strong edge effect extended up to at least 300 m away.
- Matheus Henrique Nunes
- , Tommaso Jucker
- & David A. Coomes
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal patterns and climatic controls of forest structural complexity
Forest structure depends both on extrinsic factors such as climate and on intrinsic properties such as community composition and diversity. Here, the authors use a dataset of stand structural complexity based on LiDAR measurements to build a global map of structural complexity for primary forests, and find that precipitation variables best explain global patterns of forest structural complexity.
- Martin Ehbrecht
- , Dominik Seidel
- & Christian Ammer
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Article
| Open AccessOver half of western United States' most abundant tree species in decline
The nature of forest disturbances are changing, yet consequences for forest dynamics remain uncertain. Using a new index, Stanke et al. show the populations of over half of the most abundant tree species in the western US have declined in the last two decades, with grim implications for how temperate forests globally will respond to sustained anthropogenic and natural stress.
- Hunter Stanke
- , Andrew O. Finley
- & David W. MacFarlane
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Article
| Open AccessExcess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe
Droughts pose an increasingly important threat to forests. Here the authors analyse a high-resolution Landsat-based dataset of forest canopy mortality in Europe over 1987–2016 to show that drought is already a major driver of tree mortality.
- Cornelius Senf
- , Allan Buras
- & Rupert Seidl
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Article
| Open AccessThe economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation remain uncertain. Here the authors show the global forest sector could reduce emissions by 6.0 GtCO2 yr−1 in 2055, or roughly 10% of the mitigation needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C by mid-century, at a cost of 393 billion USD yr−1, or $281/tCO2.
- K. G. Austin
- , J. S. Baker
- & A. Bean
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Article
| Open AccessEstimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity
Salvage logging has become a common practice to gain economic returns from naturally disturbed forests, but it could have considerable negative effects on biodiversity. Here the authors use a recently developed statistical method to estimate that ca. 75% of the naturally disturbed forest should be left unlogged to maintain 90% of the species unique to the area.
- Simon Thorn
- , Anne Chao
- & Alexandro B. Leverkus
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Article
| Open AccessForest management in southern China generates short term extensive carbon sequestration
Forest management may play an important role in climate change mitigation. Here, Tong et al. combine remote sensing and machine learning modelling to map forest cover dynamics in southern China during 2002–2017, showing effects on carbon sequestration that are extensive but of uncertain longevity and possible negative impact on soil water.
- Xiaowei Tong
- , Martin Brandt
- & Rasmus Fensholt
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal dynamics of stem N2O exchange follow the physiological activity of boreal trees
Forest soil is known to be a source of the greenhouse gas N2O, but the impact of what is planted in that soil has long been overlooked. Here Machacova and colleagues quantify seasonal N2O fluxes from common boreal tree species in Finland, finding that all trees are net sources of this gas.
- Katerina Machacova
- , Elisa Vainio
- & Mari Pihlatie