Natural hazards articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Aging US dams face increasing overtopping risks due to changing hydrologic conditions. This study evaluates 33 dams using updated frequency analysis and identifies six dams with the greatest probability, posing risks to downstream populations.

    • Eunsaem Cho
    • , Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf
    •  & Amir AghaKouchak

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The collapse of tropical forests during the Permian–Triassic Mass Extinction weakened carbon sequestration, sustaining high CO2 and extreme global warmth for millions of years: an example of a runaway feedback in Earth’s climate-carbon system.

    • Zhen Xu
    • , Jianxin Yu
    •  & Benjamin J. W. Mills

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of 10 years of satellite radar data with a deep learning model reveals historical flood patterns often missed in prior datasets. This dataset also enables analysis of trends in flooding, showing hints of increases in flood extent over time.

    • Amit Misra
    • , Kevin White
    •  & Juan Lavista

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors present TropiCycloneNet, a framework that combines a multimodal tropical cyclone dataset spanning 70 years and a machine learning forecast model. The approach improves forecast skill of tropical cyclone track and intensity compared to other methods, advancing data-driven weather prediction.

    • Cheng Huang
    • , Pan Mu
    •  & Cong Bai

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study shows grey infrastructure (economy-linked) dominates flood control in normal rains. During extremes, its efficacy declines while green infrastructure/topography (less economy-aligned) become crucial for urban flood mitigation.

    • Jie Fan
    • , Baoyin Liu
    •  & Xiang Gao

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study maps Campi Flegrei caldera’s internal structure, linking a gas-enriched reservoir and a deformed caprock to ground uplift and earthquakes. Land instability, seismic events and the risk of a phreatic explosion prompt for updated multi-hazard assessments.

    • G. De Landro
    • , T. Vanorio
    •  & A. Zollo

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Employing climate projections and power system modeling, the study finds that the return period for a hurricane-blackout-heatwave compound event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021) will decrease by ~12–17 times by the end of the century due to heatwave and hurricane intensification.

    • Kairui Feng
    • , Ning Lin
    •  & Michael Oppenheimer

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Storm Daniel’s extreme rainfall and dam failures caused one of the deadliest floods in Derna, Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster, showing how dam failures worsened devastation and underscoring the need for climate-resilient flood management.

    • Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem
    • , Ahad Hasan Tanim
    •  & Jasim Imran

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rapid temperature flips between hot and cold extremes will become more frequent, more intense, and more rapid globally by the end of the twenty-first century, which is exacerbated in world’s breadbasket regions and low-income countries.

    • Sijia Wu
    • , Ming Luo
    •  & Tao Pei

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The ability to predict wildfires-such as those that recently devastated Los Angeles and Canada-is advancing rapidly with the help of AI. This study shows that to improve accuracy and reliability, we must prioritize the collection and integration of high-quality data.

    • Francesca Di Giuseppe
    • , Joe McNorton
    •  & Fredrik Wetterhall

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, tsunami deposits are used to constrain rupture models for earthquakes at the Aleutian subduction zone in the 18th, 15th, and 14th centuries. Together with an earthquake in 1957, the results reveal a 700-year sequence of great earthquakes alternating between deep and shallow megathrust slip.

    • Yoshiki Yamazaki
    • , Kwok Fai Cheung
    •  & Bruce E. Jaffe

  • Perspective
    | Open Access

    Climate change and extreme weather events will influence migration patterns. However, it is important that our policies do not forget about those who are immobile to migration. This perspective explores different forms of involuntary immobility and how climate policy can address this.

    • Lisa Thalheimer
    • , Fabien Cottier
    •  & Radley M. Horton

  • Perspective
    | Open Access

    In the era of climate change, human societies face growing exposure to disasters and complex climate risks. This perspective explores the transformative potential of integrated Artificial Intelligence in developing multi-hazard Early Warning Systems for all.

    • Markus Reichstein
    • , Vitus Benson
    •  & Kommy Weldemariam

  • Review Article
    | Open Access

    Artificial Intelligence is transforming the study of extreme climate events like floods, droughts, and wildfires, helping to overcome challenges such as limited data and real-time integration. This review article highlights the need for transparent, reliable AI models to improve disaster response, risk communication and stakeholder trust.

    • Gustau Camps-Valls
    • , Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres
    •  & Tristan Williams

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A study in the Atacama Desert shows that the recovery pace of damaged subsurface materials after large earthquakes is set by the material properties, not ground shaking intensity. This finding can help postseismic hazard mitigation and reconstruction.

    • Luc Illien
    • , Jens M. Turowski
    •  & Niels Hovius

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study explores how climate change and population growth shape flood exposure. By 2100, exposure could rise from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people, driven 21% by climate change and 77% by population growth, with low-income and urban regions most affected.

    • Justin S. Rogers
    • , Marco P. Maneta
    •  & Joshua P. Hacker

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate change-related risk mitigation for infrastructure systems often requires adaptation. A computational framework for optimal decision-making under uncertainty based on dynamically changing conditions observed in time is developed in response.

    • Ashmita Bhattacharya
    • , Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou
    •  & Digant Chavda

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The study examines interplay between seismic and aseismic slip associated with the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, constrained by InSAR and strong motion data, shedding light on the frictional properties and seismic potential of faults.

    • Rumeng Guo
    • , Xiongwei Tang
    •  & Heping Sun

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study reconstructs global fire methane emissions from 2003 to 2020, revealing 27% higher estimates than previous models, which is likely due to undetected small fires and underestimated emission intensity from the coarse-resolution model data.

    • Junri Zhao
    • , Philippe Ciais
    •  & Bo Zheng

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study links the thermal evolution of magmatic systems over geologic timescales to multi-year patterns of volcano deformation, finding that uplift occurs in hot systems and uplift-subsidence cycles in colder ones.

    • Gregor Weber
    • , Juliet Biggs
    •  & Catherine Annen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study investigates wildfire protection disparities in California, finding that disadvantaged communities have greater destruction risk. Lower rates of residential roof renewals in disadvantaged communities are a contributing factor.

    • Sebastian Reining
    • , Moritz Wussow
    •  & Dirk Neumann

  • Article
    | Open Access

    33% of the world’s sandy coastlines are hardened by human-made structures, hindering natural retreat as sea levels rise. By 2100, up to 26% may face severe beach loss, while emission reductions could lower this to 21%.

    • Khin Nawarat
    • , Johan Reyns
    •  & Roshanka Ranasinghe

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The study investigates earthquake magnitude scenarios and seismic risk reduction policies for Campi Flegrei, a densely populated volcanic area in southern Italy, which is undergoing a bradyseism-related crisis in 2024.

    • Iunio Iervolino
    • , Pasquale Cito
    •  & Aldo Zollo

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Floods are becoming more frequent and severe, with major impacts on human health. Here, authors show increased risks of infant mortality associated with flood exposure, and the risks remain elevated for up to four years after the flood event.

    • Yixiang Zhu
    • , Cheng He
    •  & Renjie Chen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Distinguishing between periods of unrest and the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Here, we leverage multidisciplinary data to show that the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption was caused by 2 months of magma intrusion.

    • Kendra J. Lynn
    • , Drew T. Downs
    •  & Jefferson C. Chang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Coastal lake sediments from Svalbard are analyzed to reconstruct Holocene changes in Easterly and Westerly wind strength. These results show winds were stronger during cold summers and challenge the view that a warmer future Arctic will be stormier.

    • Zofia Stachowska
    • , Willem G. M. van der Bilt
    •  & Mateusz C. Strzelecki

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Reconstruction of debris flows in a supply-limited system shows that process activity is controlled by sediment supply over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Debris flows recur less frequently here and are, unlike transport-limited systems, not affected by climate change.

    • Jiazhi Qie
    • , Adrien Favillier
    •  & Christophe Corona

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Lab experiments reveal that slow-slip events, generated by heterogeneity in fault composition, can trigger earthquakes by acting as an initial rupture. The slow-slip region can extend beyond the heterogeneity depending on loading conditions.

    • Yohann Faure
    •  & Elsa Bayart

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Porous materials such as snow can collapse under compression, forming anticracks. The authors show that anticrack fracture modes vary with loading direction and find a mechanism that suggests that cracks grow more easily under compression than under shear, advancing stability models for porous materials.

    • Valentin Adam
    • , Bastian Bergfeld
    •  & Philipp L. Rosendahl

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study shows that the large 2019 Ridgecrest and 2018 Anchorage earthquakes were preceded by months of anomalous low-magnitude seismicity in Southern California and Southcentral Alaska. This opens up new perspectives to forecast large earthquakes.

    • Társilo Girona
    •  & Kyriaki Drymoni

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Loss of peat through increased burning will have major impacts on the global carbon cycle. Here, the authors use pyrolysis combustion flow calorimetry to determine the temperature of maximum thermal decomposition (Tmax) of peats from different latitudes, and couple this to a botanical composition analysis.

    • Alastair J. Crawford
    • , Claire M. Belcher
    •  & Minna Väliranta

  • Article
    | Open Access

    When lightning generated whistler waves echo multiple times, they are called whistler echo trains. Here, the authors show lightning strokes from three thunderstorm systems responsible for long-lasting and intense whistler echo trains.

    • I. Kolmašová
    • , O. Santolík
    •  & J. Manninen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Earth observations show that flash flood erosion in the Derna watershed in Libya aggravated the disastrous impacts of Storm Daniel catastrophic flood. The authors demonstrate the urgent need to mitigate the increased vulnerability of coastal watersheds in arid areas.

    • Jonathan C. L. Normand
    •  & Essam Heggy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada ( ~ 15 Mha burned) was enabled by early snowmelt, drought, and extreme weather. It had profound impacts that included evacuation of >200 communities, millions exposed to hazardous smoke, and a strain on fire-fighting resources.

    • Piyush Jain
    • , Quinn E. Barber
    •  & Marc-André Parisien

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A statistical mechanics approach unveils how urban layout influences flood hazards linking flood risk to factors like ground slope, porosity, building arrangement symmetry, and chord length, offering a scalable model applicable worldwide.

    • Sarah K. Balaian
    • , Brett F. Sanders
    •  & Mohammad Javad Abdolhosseini Qomi

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Major strike-slip faults that develop between strong and weaker regions are thought to focus along narrow shear zones at the rheological boundary. Here the authors present the InSAR-derived velocity field spanning almost the entire length of one such fault, the 1600 km-long Altyn Tagh Fault, and analyse the strain distribution.

    • Lin Shen
    • , Andrew Hooper
    •  & Tim J. Wright

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