Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases
Figure 2
Epidemic time delay diagrams for different R0.
(a) Relation between new cases at consecutive time periods (weeks) for H3N2 isolates in the US 2004–05 season, and for simulated data with (b) R0 = 1.7, (c) R0 = 1.0 and (d) R0 = 0.8. For these simulations, the introduction of new cases from the reservoir follows the Vietnam case history, Figure 1a. New cases are then generated using expression [11], according to a Poisson distribution. The trajectories connecting new cases at consecutive times (red arrows) eventually return to the origin because depletion of susceptibles reduces the effective reproduction number (i.e. the actual number of secondary cases produced by an infectious individual). Dashed lines in (a) and (b) are the tangents at the origin to the case number trajectories (red arrows), with slope b(R).