Real Estate
May 01, 2025
GTA Condo Market Outlook: More Pressure in Store for Beleaguered Sector
2026 could bring improved fortunes for the market amid a supportive interest rate backdrop, waning tariff-related uncertainty, and stronger economic and job growth. However, chances of a heroic rebound are likely low, as population growth will likely be slow and condo affordability should remain strained.
April 15, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (March 2025)
Canadian existing home sales plunged 4.8% month-on-month (m/m) in March to 35.6k units sold. This marked the lowest sales level since November 2023. Notable sales declines were recorded in B.C. and Ontario (both down 7% m/m), with a smaller drop in Quebec (-3% m/m). Meanwhile, sales were flat in Alberta.
March 26, 2025
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Housing on Shaky Foundation Amid Tariff Turbulence
The one-two punch of winter storms and tariff-related economic uncertainty sent a chill through Canadian housing markets in the first quarter. We’re now tracking a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single digit drop in Canadian average home prices.
March 06, 2025
Vancouver’s Housing Foundation is Firmer than Toronto’s
Much ink has been spilled about the weak state of the GTA’s housing market, particularly its condo sector. Indeed, GTA condo prices are falling, while price trends remain soft for other structure types. In contrast, the GVA market has held up much better in the face of the Bank of Canada’s 2022/23 interest rate hiking campaign.
January 15, 2025
Canadian Rental Market Outlook: Rent Growth to Continue Cooling in 2025
For 2025, we expect Canadian, purpose-built rent growth to slow to a range of 3-4%. Our outlook reflects a multitude of factors such as slowing population growth, increased rental supply, and lower interest rates.
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
October 16, 2024
Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
September 05, 2024
Oversupplied GTA Condo Market a Headwind for Home Prices
GTA home sales levels have been subdued since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in June. That said, sales growth should turn stronger, as the steep decline in yields gets more fully reflected in mortgage rates. Yet, even as sales growth heats up in coming months, average resale price growth in the GTA will probably trail by a considerable margin.
