Commentaries
May 01, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (April 2025)
The ISM Manufacturing Index declined slightly in April, to 48.7 from 49.0 in March. Eleven of 18 industries reported growth for the month, up from nine in February. In another sign of slowing momentum, 41% of manufacturing GDP contracted in April, comparable to the 46% in March
April 30, 2025
Real GDP (Q1-2025, advance estimate)
While the U.S. economy entered 2025 with considerable momentum, the vast policy changes undertaken by the new administration have undermined the growth outlook. The pullback in first quarter GDP was overwhelmingly driven by a sharp widening in the trade deficit, as businesses scrambled to boost inventories ahead of the tariff hikes.
April 30, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (March 2025)
Consumer spending staged a rebound in March, as households rushed to purchase new vehicles ahead of the looming tariffs. Consumers are likely to continue frontloading their purchases in April, however, this will be a temporary upswing and will likely soon fizzle out.
April 24, 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales (March 2025)
Existing home sales fell a sharp 5.9% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.02 million units (annualized) in March – completely reversing February's large gain and coming in below the consensus forecast for a smaller pullback to 4.1 million. On a year-over-year basis, sales drew back 2.4%.
April 17, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (March 2025)
U.S. housing starts fell 11.4% month-on-month (m/m) in March to 1.32 million (annualized) units, notably below expectations for a smaller decline. Revisions to the data for the two prior months added 4k units to the previous reported tallies.
April 09, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (March 18-19, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant at the conclusion of its March 18-19 meeting. The minutes for this meeting, released today, unsurprisingly showed that increasingly negative sentiment in financial markets and uncertainty about future policies were taking a more prominent place in the committee's deliberations.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
