Stochastic Hydrology
Exercise 1: Basic Probability and Probability Distributions
1. Three events A, B, and C have the following properties:
P (A ) = 0.5 , P (B ) = 0.3 , P (C ) = 0.15 ,
P (A B ) = 0.15 , P (C | A ) = 0.2 , P (B C ) = 0.0
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
vi)
vii)
Draw a Venn diagram to represent these events.
Calculate P (A B ) , P (A C ) , P (B C ) , and P (A B C ) .
Derive an expression for P (A B C ) and check your answer in (i) above.
Find P (A B C ) if P (B C ) = 0.1 and P (A B C ) = 0.05 . Verify your answer.
Calculate P (A B ') , P (A ' C ) , and P (B ' C ')
Calculate P (A | B ) , P (A | C ) , and P (B | C ) .
Find a pair of mutually exclusive events and another pair of independent events.
2. The electrical load in a city can be low (event L), moderate (event M) or high (event H), with
known probabilities P(L) = 0.10, P(M) = 5 P(H). Failure of the system (event F) can only occur
if a certain transformer fails to function. From past experience the following conditional
probabilities are known: P(F | L) = 0.01, P(F | M) = 0.05 and P(F | H) = 0.30.
i)
ii)
iii)
What is the probability of a system failure P(F)?
If a failure has occurred, what is the probability that the load was high?
Calculate the probability of medium or low load given that a failure has occurred.
3. The number of rainy days per year for a certain city has the following distribution function
No. of days (D)
F(D)
i)
ii)
iii)
0
0.40
1
0.60
2
0.75
3
0.88
4
0.88
5
0.95
6
1.00
Sketch the distribution function and the probability mass function for this variable.
Find the expected value and standard deviation for this random variable.
Find the probability of having more than 3 accidents per year given that the year has not
been accident free.
4. The distribution of flow (Q) in a pipe network is given in the opposite figure. Find the following:
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
P(10 < Q < 45)
P(Q > 45 | Q > 30)
The mean of Q.
The standard deviation of Q.
f (Q)
60
5. A random variable has the following probability density function
f x (x ) = a x 2 0 x 10
i)
ii)
iii)
Find P (x > 5) , P (2 < x < 4) , P (X < 2 | X < 4)
Find the distribution function of x.
Find E(x) and Var(x).
6. A water pumping station has 6 pumps. The probability that any pump is defective equals 10%.
Calculate the probability of a successful operation that needs 4 working pumps all the time.
7. For a successful wastewater treatment process 7 blowers are needed. The probability that any
blower is defective equals 0.05. How many blowers are needed in the site to have a probability
of successful operation equals 99%?
8. In a factory of steel bars, the probability that a steel bar has strength less than the standards is 5%.
The production of the factory is in the form of groups having 20 steel bars each. Calculate the
probability that a given group has:
a) All bars having actual strength equal to the standard strength
b) At least on bar not following the standards
c) Exactly 2 bars not following the standards
9. The flow rate on a one-way bridge is 540 cars/hour. What is the probability for a person to cross
the bridge in 8 seconds? What is the probability of crossing to the other side and then crossing
back in 12 seconds?
10. In a city, the fuel consumption rate for different types of cars may be classified into three groups
with the following characteristics:
Group
I
Fuel consumption rate (km/lit) <8
Probability of fuel consumption 0.4
II
III
8-10 10
0.4 0.2
If a sample of 12 cars is selected, what is the probability that the sample has 4 cars from group
I, 6 cars from group II, and 2 cars from group III?
11. A bag contains 24 meteorological devices, of which 12 are defective. Let X equal the number of
defective devices in a sample of five devices selected at random and without replacement from
the bag. Find
a) P (X = 2)
b) P (X 2)
c) = E (x) and 2 = var (X)
