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Garden Supply Sales Forecasting

This document contains sales data for storage sheds from Wallace Garden Supply over a 12 month period. It calculates 3-month weighted moving averages to forecast future sales. The forecast errors are also analyzed, showing the average error is 1.965 with a mean absolute percentage error of 10.48%.

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dewimachfud
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94 views3 pages

Garden Supply Sales Forecasting

This document contains sales data for storage sheds from Wallace Garden Supply over a 12 month period. It calculates 3-month weighted moving averages to forecast future sales. The forecast errors are also analyzed, showing the average error is 1.965 with a mean absolute percentage error of 10.48%.

Uploaded by

dewimachfud
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Wallace Garden Supply

Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Next period

Actual
Value Weights
10
0.263
12
0.579
16
0.158
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19
20.158

Sum of weights =

1.000

Three-Month Weighted Moving Averages

2.6
3.2
4.2
3.4
4.5
5
3.9
5.3
5.8

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

6.9
9.3
7.5
9.8
11
8.7
12
13
11

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

2.53
2.05
2.69
3
2.37
3.16
3.48
3
3.32

/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

12.106
14.473
14.422
16.263
17.842
16.843
19.000
21.000
20.106

Wallace Garden Supply


Forecasting

3 period weighted moving average

Input Data
Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Forecast Error Analysis


Actual value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19

Next period
Sum of weights =

Weights
0.263
0.579
0.158

Forecast

12.106
14.473
14.422
16.263
17.842
16.843
19.000
21.000
20.106
Average

20.158
1.000

Error

0.894
2.527
4.578
-1.263
2.158
5.157
0.000
0.000
-1.106
1.965
BIAS

Absolute
error

0.894
2.527
4.578
1.263
2.158
5.157
0.000
0.000
1.106
6.913
MAD

Squared
error

0.800
6.385
20.962
1.596
4.659
26.597
0.000
0.000
1.222
6.913
MSE

Absolute
% error

6.88%
14.86%
24.10%
8.42%
10.79%
23.44%
0.00%
0.00%
5.82%
10.48%
MAPE

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