33

Month Actual Shed Sales 2-Month MA 3-Month MA 4-Month MA

January 10
February 12
March 13 11 28
April 16 12 1/2 11 2/3
May 19 14 1/2 13 2/3 12 3/4
June 23 17 1/2 16 15
23
July 26 21 19 1/3 17 3/4
August 30 24 1/2 22 2/3 21
September 28 28 26 1/3 24 1/2
October 18 29 28 26 3/4 18
November 16 23 25 1/3 25 1/2
December 14 17 20 2/3 23
January 15 16 19
13

8
ry ry ch ril ay ne Ju
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nua rua ar Ap M Ju ugu
a eb M A
J F pt
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Actual Shed Sales 2-Month MA 3-Mont

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be
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Ju Ju gu ob ua
Au em Oc
t em ce
m a n
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J
Se N

2-Month MA 3-Month MA 4-Month MA

 Month Actual Shed Sales 3-Month MA 3-Month WMA 33
January 10
February 12
March 13 28
April 16 11 2/3 12 1/6
May 19 13 2/3 14 1/3
June 23 16 17 23
July 26 19 1/3 20 1/2
August 30 22 2/3 23 5/6
September 28 26 1/3 27 1/2 18
October 18 28 28 1/3
November 16 25 1/3 23 1/3
December 14 20 2/3 18 2/3 13
January 16 15 1/3

8
ry ar
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be
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ua ru ar Ap M Ju gu m to
J an e b M Au
te O c
F
S ep
Months Weights
M-3 1
Actual Shed Sales 3-Month MA 3-Month WM
M-2 2
M-1 3
6
 ly st be
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Ju gu
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3-Month MA 3-Month WMA

 α
Actual 0.2
Quarter Tonnage Forecast α=0.2
1 Unoaded
12 11.00
2 17 11.20
3 20 12.36
4 19 13.89
5 24 14.91
6 21 16.73
7 31 17.58
8 28 20.27
9 36 21.81
10 24.65
 α
Actual 0.1
Forecast
Quarter Tonnage
α=0.1
1 Unoaded
180 175.00
2 168 175.50
3 159 174.75
4 175 173.18
5 190 173.36
6 205 175.02
7 180 178.02
8 182 178.22
 α α
Actual 0.1 0.5
Forecast Forecast
Quarter Tonnage
α=0.1 α=0.5
1 Unoaded
180 175.00 175.00
2 168 175.50 177.50
3 159 174.75 172.75
4 175 173.18 165.88
5 190 173.36 170.44
6 205 175.02 180.22
7 180 178.02 192.61
8 182 178.22 186.30
 α α
Actual 0.1 0.5 Forecast Absolute
Forecast Forecast Absolute Squared Absolute Forecast Squared Absolute
Quarter Tonnage error for Deviation
α=0.1 error Deviation error % error α=0.5 error % error
1 Unoaded
180 175.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 2.78% 175.00 α=0.50
5.00 for 5.00
α=0.50 25.00 2.78%
2 168 175.50 -7.50 7.50 56.25 4.46% 177.50 -9.50 9.50 90.25 5.65%
3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06 9.91% 172.75 -13.75 13.75 189.06 8.65%
4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 1.04% 165.88 9.13 9.13 83.27 5.21%
5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 8.76% 170.44 19.56 19.56 382.69 10.30%
6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70 14.62% 180.22 24.78 24.78 614.11 12.09%
7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92 1.10% 192.61 -12.61 12.61 159.00 7.01%
8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31 2.08% 186.30 -4.30 4.30 18.53 2.37%

10.31 190.82 5.59% 12.33 195.24 6.76%

MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE
 Actual Shed Forecast Absolute Squared Absolute Forecast Absolute Squared
Month 3-Month MA 3-Month WMA
Sales error Deviation error % error error Deviation error
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 11 2/3 4.33 4.33 18.78 27.08% 12 1/6 3.83 3.83 14.69
May 19 13 2/3 5.33 5.33 28.44 28.07% 14 1/3 4.67 4.67 21.78
June 23 16 7.00 7.00 49.00 30.43% 17 6.00 6.00 36.00
July 26 19 1/3 6.67 6.67 44.44 25.64% 20 1/2 5.50 5.50 30.25
August 30 22 2/3 7.33 7.33 53.78 24.44% 23 5/6 6.17 6.17 38.03
September 28 26 1/3 1.67 1.67 2.78 5.95% 27 1/2 0.50 0.50 0.25
October 18 28 -10.00 10.00 100.00 55.56% 28 1/3 -10.33 10.33 106.78
November 16 25 1/3 -9.33 9.33 87.11 58.33% 23 1/3 -7.33 7.33 53.78
December 14 20 2/3 -6.67 6.67 44.44 47.62% 18 2/3 -4.67 4.67 21.78
January 16 15 1/3
6.48 47.64 33.68% 5.44 35.93
MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE
Absolute
Months Weights
% error
M-3 1
M-2 2
M-1 3
23.96% 6
24.56%
26.09%
21.15%
20.56%
1.79%
57.41%
45.83%
33.33%

28.30%
MAPE
 α
Actual 0.16
Forecast
Quarter Tonnage α=0.157861 Abs Error
1 Unoaded
180 5646813
175.00 5.00
2 168 175.79 7.79
3 159 174.56 15.56
4 175 172.10 2.90
5 190 172.56 17.44
6 205 175.31 29.69
7 180 180.00 0.00
8 182 180.00 2.00

MAD 10.05
 New
Month Actual Shed Sales 3-Month WMA Error Error Months Weights Weights New Weights
3-Month WMA
January 10 M-3 1 0.17 0.00
February 12 M-2 2 0.33 0.00
March 13 M-1 3 0.50 1.00
April 16 12 1/6 3.83 13 3.00 6 1.00 1.00
May 19 14 1/3 4.67 16 3.00
June 23 17 6.00 19 4.00
July 26 20 1/2 5.50 23 3.00
August 30 23 5/6 6.17 26 4.00
September 28 27 1/2 0.50 30 2.00
October 18 28 1/3 10.33 28 10.00
November 16 23 1/3 7.33 18 2.00
December 14 18 2/3 4.67 16 2.00

MAD 5.44 MAD 3.67

 X Y
61 4280
6000
63 4080
67 4420
5000
69 4170
70 4480
4000
74 4300
76 4820
3000
81 4700
86 5110
2000
91 5130
95 5640
1000
97 5560
0
b 1569.792777 55 60 65 70 75
a 40.70159858
Y

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.948200328 0.9482003279
R Square 0.899083862 0.8990838619
Adjusted R Square 0.888992248
Standard Error 177.2174575
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2798031.3943 2798031 89.09218 2.691644E-06
Residual 10 314060.27235 31406.03
Total 11 3112091.6667

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 1569.792777 338.08296092 4.643218 0.000917 816.4969964
X Variable 1 40.70159858 4.3121283262 9.438865 2.69E-06 31.09357792
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Y Linear (Y)

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

2323.088557 816.4969964 2323.088557
50.30961924 31.09357792 50.30961924
 α β
Smoothe
0.2 0.4 Forecast
Actual d Smoothe
Month Including
Demand Forecast d Trend, Expert LST
(t) Trend,
1 (At)
14 Average,
11.00 T
3.00
t 14.00
Fitt
Ft
2 19 14.00 3.00 17.00
3 22 17.00 3.00 20.00
4 21 20.00 3.00 23.00
5 26 23.00 3.00 26.00
6 23 26.00 3.00 29.00
7 33 29.00 3.00 32.00
8 30 32.00 3.00 35.00
9 38 35.00 3.00 38.00
38.00 3.00 41.00
 α β
0.2
Smoothed 0.4
Smoothe Forecast
Actual
Month Forecast d Trend, Including
Demand
1 12 Average,
11.00 Ft Tt
2.00 Trend,
13.00Fitt
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72 40
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
35
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14 30
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
25
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59 20
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
15
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
10

0
1 2 3 4

Actual Demand
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Actual Demand Forecast Including Trend, Fitt