Probability 1: the idea of
probability
IB Studies
How to write a probability
Probabilities are written as fractions or decimals.
A probability will never exceed 1 or be less than 0.
A probability close to 1 is very likely, if it is 1 it will
be certain.
A probability close to 0 is very unlikely, if it is 0 it
will be impossible.
A probability of 0.5, or a half has an even chance.
Outcomes
Outcomes are all the things Questions
that could happen. 1. 10 different sweets are in a
bag. If one is chosen, how many
For example when a normal fair outcomes are there?
die is rolled there are 6
10
outcomes: 1,2,3,4,5,6.
2. There are 15 students in a
class. One is chosen, how many
When a coin is tossed there are outcomes are there?
2 outcomes: head or tail. 15
3. 3 red counters, 2 blue
counters and 1 white counter
are in a bag. One is chosen.
How many outcomes are there?
6
Favourable outcomes and expressing probabilities
favourable outcomes
Probability=
total outcomes
Favourable outcomes are the 2. 4 red counters, 3 blue
ones that are required, usually counters and 1 white counter
from the question. are in a bag. One counter is
chosen at random.
Examples Find the probability of getting a
1. A fair normal die is rolled, blue counter.
find the probability that a 5
occurs.
1 3
6 8
Question set 1
1. A fair normal die is rolled. 2. A class of 20 students has 5
Find the probability that, Americans, 10 Egyptians, 3
1 Canadians, and 2 French
a) a 4 occurs,
students. A student is chosen at
6
random.
b) an even Find the probability of the
3 student being,
numbers occurs,
6
5
a) American,
c) an square 2 20
number occurs, 6 2
b) French,
20
d) a prime 3
number occurs, 3
6 c) Canadian,
20
e) a 7 occurs. 0 0
0 d) British. 0
6 20
Probabilities from observations
Probabilities are not always theoretical, as the previous slides.
They may be based on some surveys.
For example:
A student does a survey to find the colour of 50 cars parked in a
staff car park. The results are shown below.
Colour Silver Blue Black Other
Frequency 20 12 13 5
Another car is driven into the 13
b) black,
car park. Based on the results of
the survey, find the probability 50
that the car will be,
c) a colour other
5
12 than silver, blue
a) blue, or black. 50
50
Complementary probabilities
All probabilities must add up to 1.
4 red counters, 3 blue counters Questions
and 1 white counter are in a 1. From a group of students it is
bag. One counter is chosen at known that the probability of
random. choosing a female is 0.3. Find
the probability of choosing a
a) Find the probability of getting male.
a blue counter. 0.7
3 2. A darts player gets a bullseye
8 2
with a probability of .
b) Find the probability of not 7
getting a blue counter. Find the probability of the dart
player not getting a bullseye.
3 5 5
1
8 8 7
A sample space - more than 1 event
Two dice are rolled and the scores are added.
How many outcomes are there? 6 6 36
The best way to show all the
When two dice are rolled and
outcomes is to draw a table.
the scores are added, find the
1 2 3 4 5 6 probability of getting,
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1
a) a 2,
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 36
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
b) a 7, 6
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 36
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
c) a 10, 3
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
36
This is the main body of the
d) a 1. 0
table, showing the 36 outcomes.
36
Question set 2
Two dice are rolled and the Use your table to find the
difference of the numbers is probability of getting a score of,
found.
a) How many outcomes are
6
there? c) 3,
36 36
b) Produce a sample space
(table) to list all the outcomes. d) a prime number, 16
1 2 3 4 5 6 0 and 1 are not prime. 36
1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2 1 0 1 2 3 4 e) a non-prime 20
number, 36
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
4 3 2 1 0 1 2 30
f) not a 3.
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 36
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Expectation
Expectation can sometimes be If a die is rolled 36 times, how
asked. This is how many times many times would you expect a
we may expect in theory 5 to occur?
something to happen, and can 6
be found by using probability.
If a die is rolled 720 times, how
Examples many times would you expect a
If a die is rolled 6 times, how 5 to occur?
many times would you expect a You can use probability to
5 to occur? answer this:
1 1
720 120
If a die is rolled 12 times, how 6
many times would you expect a
5 to occur? If a die is rolled 324 times, how
many times would you expect a
5 to occur?
2
54
Question set 3
An archery target is split into c) Find the expected number of
3 sections: bullseye, inner and inners when an archer fires
outer. The respective probabilities 128 arrows.
of an arrow hitting each target are, 80
1 5 x
, , .
8 8 8 d) Find the expected number of
outers when an archer fires
a) Find the value of x. 224 arrows.
2 56
b) Find the expected number of
bullseyes when an archer fires
80 arrows.
10
Probability 2: constructing tree
diagrams
IB Studies
AND and OR 1
A bag contains 3 red counters b) Find the probability that 2
and 2 blue counters. A counter blue counters are picked.
is picked at random, then
replaced in the bag. A counter P(blue) P(blue) 4
2 2
is then chosen again. 25
=
5 5
a) Find the probability that 2 c) Find the probability that the
red counters are picked. 2 counters are picked are the
same colour.
You want: red AND red
You want:
Relace the AND with . Red AND red OR blue AND blue
Re place the OR with +.
P(red) P(red)
P(red) P(red) + P(blue) P(blue)
3 3 9
= 3 3 2 2 13
5 5 25 =
5 5 5 5 25
AND and OR 2
A tired maths teacher reaches b) two red socks,
into her sock draw in the 3 2
morning. She has 5 black and 3 P(red) P(red)=
red socks in the draw. She 8 7
picks two socks at random. 6
Find the probability that she
picks,
56
a) two black socks, c) matching socks,
Note that this is a question
5 4 3 2 26
without replacement, so be
careful with the second 8 7 8 7 56
probability.
d) socks of different colours.
5 4
P(black) P(black)=
8 7 26 30
1
20 56 56
56
Tree diagrams - construction
A bag contains 3 red counters and 2 blue counters. A counter is
picked at random, then replaced in the bag. A counter is then
chosen again.
Show this information on a tree diagram.
1st choice 2nd choice
3 red
3 5
red
5 2 6
blue r AND b
5 25
3
red 6
5 b AND r
2 25
blue
5
2 4
blue b AND b
5 25
Tree diagrams - reading a table
9 Always fill in the
25 probabilities on at the end
of the branches, keep the
6 denominators the same and
25 ensure the total is 1.
6
25 This makes answering
questions much easier.
4
25
Find the probability that
c) the 2 counters picked 13
9 are of the same colour,
a) 2 red counters are 25
picked,
25
d) the 2 counters are
picked are of different
12
b) blue counters are 4
picked, colours. 25
25
Question
An IB group has 10 males and 10 females. 4 males do SL maths and 6
do HL maths. 7 females do SL and 3 do HL maths. One male and one
female are chosen at random and their level of maths is noted.
a) Construct a tree diagram for this data.
Hence, calculate the probability
Male Female 28
7
SL that when a male and female are
100 chosen at random,
10
4 SL 18
12
b) both do HL,
10 3
HL 100 100
10
42 c) both do SL, 28
6 7 SL
10 HL 10 100 100
d) one does HL, 54
3 18
HL 100 and one does SL. 100
10
e) the male does HL, 42
the female does SL. 100
