PROBABILITY
Probability Definition in Math
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be
predicted with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e., how likely they
are going to happen, using it.
• Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1)
• Impossible Event – an event that has no chance of occurring (probability = 0)
• Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur (probability = 1)
The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to 1.
The set of all possible outcomes of the given experiment is called the sample space. An
event is a subset of a sample space.
There are six possibilities in the sample space and only one of these corresponds to getting a 6, so
the probability of getting a 6 when you roll a die is 1/6
Law of Total Probability
If there are n number of events in an experiment, then the sum of the probabilities of
those n events is always equal to 1.
P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + … + P(An) = 1
Experiment: An action or process that leads to an observation.
Outcome: The result of a single performance of an experiment.
Sample Space (S):The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Event (E): A subset of the sample space, i.e., a collection of outcomes.
Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the
probability formula.
Solution
To find: Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting a number less than 5. Then A = {1,2,3,4} So, n(A) = 4
Using the probability equation,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3
Example 2: Here are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue. What is the probability
of picking a yellow pillow?
Ans: The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed divided by the total number
of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.
Types of Probability
There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the nature of the outcome or the
approach followed while finding probability of an event happening.
The four types of probabilities are,
1. Classical Probability
2. Empirical Probability
3. Subjective Probability; based on a combination of an individual’s past experience, personal opinion, and
analysis of a particular situation
Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is mainly based on
the reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical probability of getting a head
will be ½.
Experimental Probability
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can be
calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the total number of trials.
Experiments which do not have a fixed result are known as random experiments. The outcome of
such experiments is uncertain. Random experiments are repeated multiple times to determine their
likelihood. An experiment is repeated a fixed number of times and each repetition is known as a trial.
Probability of an Event P(E) = Number of times an event occurs / Total number of trials.
if a coin is tossed 10 times and head is recorded 6 times then, the experimental probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
Experimental Probability
Consider an experiment of rotating a spinner 50 times. The table given below shows the
results of the experiment conducted. Let us find the experimental probability of spinning the color -
blue.
The experimental probability of spinning the color blue = 10/50 = 1/5 = 0.2 = 20%
Experimental Probability vs Theoretical Probability
Experimental results are unpredictable and may not necessarily match the theoretical
results.
Here are a few examples from real-life scenarios.
a) The number of cookies made by Patrick per day in this week is given as 4, 7, 6, 9, 5, 9, 5.
Based on this data, what is the reasonable estimate of the probability that Patrick makes
less than 6 cookies the next day?
P(< 6 cookies) = 3/7 = 0.428 = 42%
b) Find the reasonable estimate of the probability that while ordering a pizza,
the next order will not be of a pepperoni topping.
Based on this data, the reasonable estimate of the probability that the next type of toppings that would get
ordered is not a pepperoni will be 15/20 = 3/4 = 75%
Probability Theorems
Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of happening of an event and not happening of an event is
equal to 1. P(A) + P(A') = 1.
Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event or the probability of an event not happening is
always equal to 0. P(ϕ) = 0.
Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is always equal to 1. P(A) = 1
Theorem 4: The probability of happening of any event always lies between 0 and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1
QUESTION1: Draw a random card from a pack of cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is a
face card? (considered Jack, Queen and King only)
Solution:
A standard deck has 52 cards.
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52
Let E be the event of drawing a face card.
Number of favourable events = n(E) = 4 x 3 = 12
Probability, P = Number of Favorable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
= 12/52
= 3/13
P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13
QUESTION2 : Bag contains 2 red balls, 4 blue balls, and 5 green balls. If one ball is randomly chosen from the
bag, what is the probability that it is red or blue?
Number of red balls = 2
Number of blue balls = 4
Total number of balls = 2 (red) + 4 (blue) + 5 (green) = 11
So, the probability of randomly choosing a red or blue ball from the bag is 6/11= 54.55%
QUESTION3 What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice are thrown?
Solution:
There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.
To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the following
favorable outcomes.
(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6). There are 4 favorable outcomes.
Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total outcomes in a sample space)
Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9
Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 9 is 1/9.
QUESTION4 There is a container full of colored bottles, red, blue, green and orange.
Some of the bottles are picked out and displaced.
John did this 1000 times and got the following results:
No. of blue bottles picked out: 300
No. of red bottles: 200
No. of green bottles: 450
No. of orange bottles: 50
What is the probability that John will pick a green bottle?
If there are 100 bottles in the container, how many of them are likely to be green?
The following table shows the recording of the outcomes on throwing a 6-sided die
QUESTION5
100 times.
Find the experimental probability
of:
a) Rolling a four;
b) Rolling a number less than four;
c) Rolling a 2 or 5
QUESTION6
In a survey about music preferences, 70% of respondents like pop music, 50% like
rock music, and 30% like both pop and rock music. What is the probability that a
randomly selected respondent likes at least one of the music genres?
•A: the event that a respondent likes pop music.
•B: the event that a respondent likes rock music.
The probability of liking pop music is P(A)=70% (or 0.70),
the probability of liking rock music is P(B)=50% (or 0.50), and the
probability of liking both is P(A∩B)=30% (or 0.30)
So, the probability that a randomly selected respondent likes at least one
of the music genres is 0.90 or 90%
QUESTION7
In a survey on smartphone preferences, 60% of respondents prefer Android, 40% prefer
iOS, and 25% prefer both Android and iOS. What is the probability that a randomly
selected respondent prefers at least one of the smartphone operating systems?
•A: the event that a respondent prefers Android.
•B: the event that a respondent prefers iOS.
THANK YOU
