ESSP II Working Paper 44

Spatial Analysis of Livestock Production

Patterns in Ethiopia

Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt

Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research

Institute – Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, Ethiopia

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II)

ESSP II Working Paper 44

October 2012

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 THE ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM II (ESSP II)
WORKING PAPERS

ABOUT ESSP II

The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II is an initiative to strengthen evidence-based policymaking

in Ethiopia in the areas of rural and agricultural development. Facilitated by the International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ESSP II works closely with the government of Ethiopia, the
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757/ourwork/program/ethiopia-strategy-support-program orhttp://essp.ifpri.info/ or
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ABOUT THESE WORKING PAPERS

The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) Working Papers contain preliminary material and
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About the Author(s)

Emily Schmidt: Country Program Coordinator and GIS Specialist, Development Strategy and
Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Helina Tilahun: GIS Analyst, Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI)

ii
 Spatial Analysis of Livestock Production Patterns in Ethiopia

Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt

Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research

Institute – Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, Ethiopia

Copyright © 2012 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this material may be reproduced
for personal and not-for-profit use without the express written permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. To reproduce
the material contained herein for profit or commercial use requires express written permission. To obtain permission, contact
the Communications Division at [email protected].

iii
 Table of Contents

Abstract ................................................................................................................................ vi
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................1
2. Data and methods ...........................................................................................................1
3. Livestock production in Ethiopia .......................................................................................2
4. Agro-pastoralist and pastoralist regions in Ethiopia ..........................................................7
5. Livestock population and market access ..........................................................................8
6. Change in pressure on grazing land in Ethiopia .............................................................11
7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................14
Appendix .............................................................................................................................15
References ..........................................................................................................................20

iv
 List of Tables

Table 3.1—Livestock population by region, 2007/08 (thousands) ..........................................3

Table 3.2—Sheep and goat to cattle ratio in Ethiopia, 2001–2008.........................................6
Table 4.1—Somali region livestock population estimates (thousands) ...................................7
Table 6.1—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of land in East Africa ..........................................11
Table 6.2—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of grazing land ...................................................12

List of Figures

Figure 3.1—Cattle, sheep and goat population, 2005–2008 ................................................. 2

Figure 3.2—Estimated cattle population: cattle population per household and woreda,
2007/08 ............................................................................................................ 4
Figure 3.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per household and woreda, 2007/08 ...... 5
Figure 3.4—Number of sheep and goats to cattle in Ethiopia and Kenya, 2000–2009 .......... 6
Figure 5.1—Percent of cattle located within 5 hours of a livestock market, 2001 and
2007 ................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 5.2—Percent of sheep and goats located within 5 hours of a livestock market,
2001 and 2007 ................................................................................................. 9
Figure 5.3—Access to livestock markets and regional cattle share, 2001 and 2007 ........... 10
Figure 6.2—Estimated percent of livestock disease and death* in 2007/08 ........................ 13

Appendix List

Table A.1—Regional livestock population, 2005/06 (thousands) ........................................ 15

Table A.2—Regional livestock population, 2006/07 (thousands) ........................................ 15
Figure B.1—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2001/02............................................ 16
Figure B.2—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2007/08............................................ 16
Figure B.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2001/02............................ 17
Figure B.4—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2007/08............................ 17
Table C.1—EASE census livestock count, 2001/02 (thousands) ........................................ 18
Table D.1—Estimated livestock populations in Somali Regional State, 2009...................... 18
Table E.1—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2001/02 (percent) .......... 18
Table E.2—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2001/02
(percent) ......................................................................................................... 19
Table E.3—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2007/08 (percent) .......... 19
Table E.4—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2007/08
(percent) ......................................................................................................... 19

v
Abstract
The livestock sector is a large contributor to the Ethiopian economy as well as a mainstay in
the livelihoods of many Ethiopians. It comprised 11 percent of national GDP and 24 percent
of agricultural GDP between the years of 1995/96 and 2005/06 (NBE 2005/06). Livestock
production and markets vary substantially across space in Ethiopia due to a variety of
reasons including topographical variations, market access, water availability, and population
characteristics. This study links smallholder livestock population data from the Agricultural
Census (2001/02) and data from the annual CSA Agricultural Sample Survey (2005 to 2008)
with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data in order to assess livestock population,
market access, and grazing land. We utilize existing studies of travel time (Schmidt and
Kedir 2009) to calculate shares of livestock (cattle, sheep and goat) populations within
defined travel time thresholds of major markets. In addition, we attempt to provide greater
insight of changes in available grazing land given increasing human and livestock population
pressure.

vi
1. Introduction
Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa (Hussen et al. 2008; Solomon et al.
2003).The livestock subsector comprised 11 percent of national GDP and 24 percent of
agricultural GDP between the years of 1995/96 and 2005/06 1, and is a source of revenue for
60–70 percent of the population (NBE 2005/06;Halderman 2004). According to Negassa and
Jabbar (2008), 80 percent of smallholder farmers own cattle, 31–38 percent own sheep, and
21–33 percent own goats. Previous research suggests that the combination of livestock
species owned by smallholders varies spatially given availability of feed, human population
density, and intended function of livestock species. In highly populated areas, smaller
livestock (sheep, goats, etc.) are preferred over large animals that require large expanses of
grazing land. In the highlands where crop production requires intensive tillage, draft animals
such as oxen or mules are necessary (Jabbar, Negassa, and Gidyelew 2007). This spatial
variation in livestock population, coupled with other factors such as population density,
grazing land availability, and access to markets has implications in grazing land
management and livestock markets. Understanding spatial variations within the livestock
economy is crucial in order to devise a feasible, more geographically targeted livestock
policy.

2. Data and methods

In order to analyze livestock population over time, a database at woreda level was created
using data from the Agricultural Census of 2001/02 and the Agricultural Sample Survey
(AgSS) from 2005 to 2008 collected by the Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA 2002,
2006, 2007, 2008a). It is important to note that the AgSS is representative at the zone level;
but for purposes of this study, we estimated woreda level figures for 2005–2008 by
calculating the woreda share of livestock population for each zone recorded in the 2001/02
census. While we recognize that this method is simplistic in nature and will not capture intra
and inter-annual dynamics of livestock population movements and determinants of
production, it does provide insight into the importance of livestock production and market
linkages in terms of transportation and economic access.
In addition, due to data sampling constraints, livestock population data were not reported for
a number of areas. The AgSS collects data in rural sedentary areas of the country. Limited
data are collected in urban areas, and given accessibility constraints, only two (of the five)
zones in Afar and three (of the nine) zones in Somali region are sampled. Although three
zones of Somali region were sampled, limited data were collected from these zones. 2 An
aerial survey was conducted in 2003 in order to survey the remaining zones in Somali
region; we discuss these figures separately in order to provide a more comprehensive
picture of livestock population throughout the country.
For woredas which are in zones that were not sampled during the annual AgSS, a two
percent annual livestock growth rate 3 is assumed and production is estimated based on the
2001/02 agricultural census figures. Woredas that were not covered in the census or the
AgSS were left out of this analysis. Finally, the census and AgSS data for the study period
were evaluated for spatial consistency and coherence over time. Given that the woreda

1
Behnke (2010) reports that if the value of plowing services is incorporated into the estimate, livestock provided 45 percent of
agricultural GDP in 2008/09.
2
Two of 6 woredas from Shinile zone were sampled (Shinile and Erer woredas); and 3 of 6woredas from Jijiga zone were
surveyed: Jijiga, Teferi Ber, and Kebri Beyah woredas.
3
Based on previous literature, cattle population growth rate ranges from 1.6 to 3.2 percent (Gebremedhin et al. 2007; Negassa
et al. 2011)

1
 boundaries, names, and codes vary over time, we constructed a spatial database that
merged comparable woreda boundary data with a unique spatial identifier following the
AgSS codebook.
Finally, several methodologies have been used to estimate livestock populations and
patterns at disaggregated levels. A recent example of such work uses the Livelihoods
Integration Unit (LIU) data collected between 2006 and 2009 via the Household Economy
Approach 4 (HEA). Unlike the Household Income Consumption Expenditure surveys, which
offer nationally representative data, the LIU data (re-estimated using population figures from
the 2008 national estimates from the Ethiopia Census) offer stylized facts, which in some
cases provide valuable insights into otherwise difficult to survey populations. In addition, we
provide livestock population estimates reported by Behnke (2010) whereby the authors
adjust CSA annual livestock figures to incorporate all pastoral animals from administrative
zones not sampled by CSA 5.

3. Livestock production in Ethiopia

According to national statistics, livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the
highland regions accounting for the largest share. Both FAO and CSA data report increases
in livestock population over the last several years. CSA data suggest a steady incline in
population, while FAO reports greater increase initially with slower to declining growth from
2007 to 2008, especially for sheep and goat population (Figure 3.1). Between 2005 and
2008, livestock population (in terms of cattle, sheep, and goats) in Ethiopia grew at 22
percent. In 2007/08, Oromiya region produced the largest share, 38 percent of livestock
within Ethiopia, while Amhara and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP)
regions produced 26 and 16 percent of livestock shares, respectively (Table 3.1).
Approximately 10 percent of overall production is found in the agro-pastoralist regions of
Afar and Somali. However, livestock estimates in Ethiopia are based primarily on data
collected in sedentary areas, which excludes large pastoral areas of Afar and Somali
regions.

Figure 3.1—Cattle, sheep and goat population, 2005–2008

Cattle Sheep and goats

60,000 60,000
Thousands
Thousands

50,000 50,000
40,000 CSA 40,000 CSA
30,000 FAO 30,000
20,000 20,000 FAO
10,000 10,000
0 0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Source: Author’s calculations; CSA: Agricultural Sample Survey (2005–2008) and FAO (2005–2008)

4
Collected by the Government of Ethiopia Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA), used to assess livelihoods
and how they might respond to environmental and economic shocks.
5
We include Behnke (2010) estimates in Appendix D.

2
Table 3.1—Livestock population by region, 2007/08 (thousands)
Region share
Region Cattle Goat Sheep
of total livestock
Tigray 3,119.4 3,005.5 1,388.1 7.4
Afar* 1,627.2 3,398.2 1,799.0 6.8
Amhara 11,757.3 5,468.6 9,469.7 26.4
Oromiya 21,375.7 7,678.4 9,391.1 38.1
Somali* 675.6 1,710.4 1,316.8 3.7
Benishangul Gumuz 363.6 371.5 85.3 0.8
SNNP 9,574.7 2,624.6 4,000.1 16.0
Gambella 212.6 54.6 48.1 0.3
Harari 40.8 41.2 5.0 0.1
Addis Ababa 89.5 19.1 21.8 0.1
Dire Dawa 49.8 154.7 59.6 0.3
Ethiopia 48,886.2 24,526.9 27,584.6 100.0
Source: Authors’ calculations; Agricultural Sample Survey 2007/08, CSA
Notes: * The CSA annual surveys cover two of the five administrative zones (Zones 1 and 3) in Afar region and three of the
nine administrative zones (Jijiga, Liben, and Shinile) in Somali region. SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples
region

In 2007/08, 87 percent of Ethiopia's cattle were found in Oromiya, Amhara, and SNNP
regions, with each region contributing 44, 24, and 20 percent respectively to total cattle
population (Figure 3.2 and Appendix A). This trend is similar for previous years of livestock
production, whereby Oromiya, Amhara, and SNNP regions combined produced 81 and 80
percent of total livestock in 2005/06 and 2006/07 respectively. While the highland regions
are primary producers of cattle, livestock production is often a secondary activity in these
areas, used primarily as draught labor as well as insurance against unreliable crop
production (Gizaw et al. 2010). Although mixed crop production relies on cattle and oxen to
prepare agricultural fields in the highlands, sheep and goat production seems to be growing
faster in these areas. This may reflect livestock holders confronting constraints to keeping
cattle related to denser human population and grazing land pressure in highly populated
areas 6. In addition, given the more flexible nature of grazing behavior of smaller ruminants,
farmers keep sheep and goats for cash and for meat, and as a complement to more
expensive cattle production (Tegegne et al. 2009).

6
Although the highlands of Ethiopia comprise 45 percent of the total land area, approximately 80 percent of the population lives
in these areas (Degefe and Nega 2000). The pastoral areas of Ethiopia cover about 60 percent of the total area, yet only 12–15
percent of the total population lives in these areas (Halderman 2004).

3
Figure 3.2—Estimated cattle population: cattle population per household and woreda,
2007/08

Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA AgSS 2007/08, CSA Agricultural Census (2001/02)
Note: Woreda level livestock numbers are estimated for 2007/08 using the Agricultural Census shares from 2001/02

Sheep and goat population is also highest in Oromiya, Amhara, and SNNP regions (33, 29,
and 13 percent, respectively), although more drought prone regions such as Afar, Tigray,
and Somali rely more heavily on sheep and goat production compared to cattle (10, 8, and 6
percent respectively in 2007/08). Between 2004/05 and 2007/08 both sheep and goat
population doubled in sedentary areas of Somali region, while Tigray region increased sheep
population from 814 thousand to almost 1.4 million head between 2005/06 and 2007/08
(Appendix A). This underscores the importance of smaller livestock production in drought

4
prone and pastoralist areas, that seek to insure against variable climatic conditions.
Increases in sheep and goat production are predominant throughout the highlands, as well
as in less accessible areas such as southern areas of Oromiya and SNNP region. 7

Figure 3.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per household and woreda, 2007/08

Source: Author’s calculations; CSA AgSS 2007/08, CSA Agricultural Census (2001/02)
Note: Woreda level livestock numbers are estimated for 2007/08 using the Agricultural Census shares from 2001/02

A majority of Ethiopia’s livestock production is focused in the highlands due to availability of

crop residues for feed (Gizaw et al. 2010) and less risk of disease (Knips 2004). However,
as these areas are densely populated, cattle per household ratio is low, which can especially

7
Population numbers and maps of years previous to 2007/08 can be found in Appendix A and B.

5
be seen in most parts of Amhara region (Figure 3.2). Whereas a higher cattle per household
ratio is observed in less populated areas of southern SNNP and west Oromiya and Tigray
regions, sheep and goats per household ratio is high in more densely populated areas of
Amhara and pastoral areas of Afar (Figure 3.3). Devereux and Scoones (2008) argue that
the livestock to human ratio is important for pastoralists in Somali and Afar regions because
trade and remittances provide effective informal social protection against drought and other
shocks.
Data comparing herd composition suggest that sheep and goat production is increasing
compared to cattle production. In 2001/02 a majority of regions produced more cattle than
sheep and goats with the exception of Afar, Somali, and Dire Dawa, which produced more
than three times the amount of sheep and goats compared to cattle (Table 3.2). By 2007/08,
sheep and goat production dominated in Tigray and Amhara. Compared to other countries in
eastern Africa, FAOSTAT (2000, 2005, 2009) data suggest a similar trend whereby in 2009
sheep and goat production increased relative to cattle in the 2000s in Kenya (from 1.52 to
1.90), and Ethiopia (from 0.59 to 0.94), although the difference in magnitudes of such are
clear (Figure 3.4). Tegegne et al. (2009) and Moses (2006) suggest that browsing behavior
of small ruminants and minimum feed (as compared to cattle) and water requirement induce
greater sheep and goat production in the densely populated highlands as well as drought-
prone pastoralist areas.

Table 3.2—Sheep and goat to cattle ratio in Ethiopia, 2001–2008

Sheep and goat: Sheep and goat: Sheep and goat: Sheep and goat:
Region
Cattle 2001/02 Cattle 2005/06 Cattle 2006/07 Cattle 2007/08
Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41
Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19
Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27
Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80
Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48
Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26
SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69
Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48
Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13
Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46
Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30
Ethiopia 0.80 0.99 1.04 1.07
Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005–2008)
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

Figure 3.4—Number of sheep and goats to cattle in Ethiopia and Kenya, 2000–2009
60
Million heads of livestock

50
40
30
20
10
0
Ethiopia Ethiopia Ethiopia Kenya 2000Kenya 2005Kenya 2009
2000 2005 2009

Cattle Shoap and goat

Sheep

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, FAOSTAT (2000, 2005, 2009)

6
4. Agro-pastoralist and pastoralist regions in Ethiopia
Given the limited data on agro-pastoralist and pastoralist regions in Ethiopia, it is difficult to
discern production strategies and trends over time in major areas of Afar and Somali region.
Some work has been done to understand production in these areas, although preliminary
analysis suggests mixed results. The CSA implemented an aerial survey in 2003 to estimate
livestock production in seven zones of Somali region (Somali region has a total of nine
zones) that had previously not been surveyed due to inaccessibility. 8 The 2002/03 aerial
data reported similar cattle population data as the figures reported for all nine zones of
Somali region from the Agricultural Census (Ethiopian Agricultural Sample Enumeration,
EASE) data from 2001/02 (670 and 643 thousand cattle respectively). Aerial data on sheep
and goat production for the same seven zones of Somali region (11.94 million), however, is
about 8 times greater than reported figures from the Agricultural Census for Somali Region
in 2001/02 (1.45 million). 9 As a check on the consistency, we compared ratios of sheep and
goat to cattle production for Somali region from the EASE and aerial data sets with data from
the EASE for other geographically contiguous regions with similar agro-ecologies. We find
that in the 2001/02 EASE data, the sheep and goat to cattle ratio in Dire Dawa, Afar, and
Somali regions is 2.3, 2.9, and 2.3 respectively, while the aerial data suggest a 17:1 ratio
(Appendix C). This suggests that the sheep and goat population may be substantially over-
estimated in the aerial data. 10
Given the likely overestimate reported in the aerial data, we estimate population figures for
the nine administrative zones of Somali region using the figures from the Agricultural Sample
Survey 2003/04 for Jijiga and Liben zones, and alternative adjusted estimates of sheep and
goat population for the other administrative zones. In Table 4.1, estimate 1 uses the ratio of
sheep and goat to cattle for Jijiga and Liben zone calculated from the 2003/04 AgSS (2.71,
also similar to the ratio reported from the EASE), to estimate population in the other seven
zones of Somali Region. Estimate 2 in Table 4.1 estimates production based on the sheep
and goat to cattle ratio (2.27) calculated from the EASE 2001/02 for these seven zones. It is
important to note that these are estimates based on limited and varying data. In Appendix D
we also report production estimates in Somali region calculated by Behnke (2010).

Table 4.1—Somali region livestock population estimates (thousands)

Estimated 2003/04 livestock population based
Aerial Survey: 2003/04
on EASE 2001/02 and Aerial Survey
Sheep and goats (1) Sheep and goats (2)
Zone Cattle Sheep and goats
(Ratio AgSS 2.71) (Ratio Somali 2.27)
Jijiga 289.9* 556.5* 556.5* 556.5*
Liben 55.9* 382.9* 382.9* 382.9*
Shinile 207.5 1,520.4 563.6 422.0
Afder 166.5 1,875.2 452.2 338.6
Degehabur 51.5 2,117.7 140.0 104.8
Fik 17.1 199.0 46.4 34.7
Gode 165.3 1,503.5 449.0 336.2
Korahe 26.3 1,053.7 71.4 53.5
Warder 36.1 3,666.7 98.2 73.5
Somali Region 1,016.1 11,936.3 2,760.3 2,302.8
Source: CSA Aerial Survey 2003/04; EASE 2001/02; Agricultural Sample Survey data for 2003/04
Notes: * Reported Agricultural Sample Survey data for 2002/03; Sheep and goats (1) estimates sheep and goat production
based on the sheep and goat to cattle ratio calculated from Jijiga and Liben data reported from the AgSS; Sheep and goats (2)
estimates sheep and goat production based on the sheep and goat to cattle ratio calculated from the EASE 2001/02 for Somali
region.

8
Liben and Jijiga Zones were excluded, as they had been covered by conventional methods. These zones are reported in the above
with the analysis of other regions.
9
It is important to note, however, that the data reported from the Agricultural Census as well as the Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS)
are for sedentary areas and cover only three of the nine administrative zones of the region (Jijiga, Liben, and Shinile), which may not
accurately represent Somali region as a whole.
10
Other estimates include the Household Economy Analysis (HEA) results which suggest sheep and goat to cattle ratios of 10.8 in
Somali region and 4.4 in Afar region (LIU 2008).

7
5. Livestock population and market access
In addition to evaluating livestock production in terms of agroecological zones (highland and
lowland/pastoralist areas), this study seeks to better understand livestock production within
the context of market access. We use a travel time model that calculates the travel time from
any point within Ethiopia to major livestock markets, taking into account land cover and
walking speed over specific terrain (grassland versus water bodies), slope (if one is walking
or driving uphill, travel speed will be less), and transportation infrastructure defined by road
maintenance and surface type. 11 Schmidt and Kedir (2009) methodology was followed to
construct a 1km x 1km resolution friction grid which represents the time required to cross
each pixel. Then the cumulative cost to move from any cell to the nearest livestock market is
computed. We then merge these data with the livestock figures estimated at woreda level in
order to assess production patterns and market proximity. The percentage of woreda
livestock population within different travel time is calculated by assigning livestock numbers
to the woreda center point.
Recent studies of livestock production and marketing suggest that road infrastructure is
important to farmers seeking to sell and buy livestock. On the demand side, data suggest
that rural area per capita annual meat consumption is 4.0 kg as compared to 11.5 kg in
urban areas (HICES 2004/05). It has been argued that this is due in part to subsistence
agriculture practices in the rural areas (in addition to wage differentials between the two
areas), as well as poor marketing infrastructure for perishable products (lack of cold chains),
and the natural bulk of livestock products which is largely indivisible 12 (Tafere and Worku
2012). At 18.4 kg, the rural annual consumption of dairy products overwhelms the meat
consumption, which is only 4.0 kg. The picture is different in urban areas: per capita annual
dairy product consumption is 8.5 kg and is less than the average meat consumption of 11.5
kg. The presence of better road infrastructure reportedly enables the highland areas to
prevail as primary supplier of livestock for the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET
2007). Although the presence of a road decreases travel time, transport costs remain an
issue. Studies comparing trekking and trucking costs find mixed preferences depending on a
variety of factors including distance to a market, vivacity of market (number of traders), and
risk of raids while traveling. Trekking has high indirect costs, in terms of animal mortality and
weight loss, trekker time, and environmental and social risk. Although the cost of trucking
livestock has higher direct costs (fuel, maintenance, transport fees, etc.) compared to
trekking in Ethiopia, research suggests that trucking is largely used to transport animals from
the secondary to terminal markets, feedlots, and ports for export, whereas trekking is more
common when transporting live animals from the producers to the primary and secondary
markets (Dirbaba and Hurrissa 2009). Similarly, Gebremedhin et al. (2007) found that
traders and producers prefer trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss.
When evaluating livestock production in terms of market access, data suggest that cattle
production is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market. In 2007/08, more than 75
percent of cattle in the four major highland regions were within 5 hours travel time of a
market (Figure 5.1 and 5.3). To illustrate the spatial distribution of high cattle producing
woredas in relation to market access, two maps are overlaid: a map depicting travel time to
the nearest livestock market and a map that indicates woredas that make up 30 percent of
each region’s cattle population. In doing so, woredas are ranked in descending order
according to livestock populations; those that produce 30 percent of the cumulative regional
cattle share are identified and mapped using cross-hatching to show high density population
areas (Figure 5.1 and 5.3).
Sheep and goat production seem less dependent on market accessibility, yet a majority of
these animals (at least 66 percent) in Oromiya, Amhara, Tigray, and SNNP are located

11
See travel time methodology in Annex 1 of Schmidt and Kedir (2009).
12
Exceptions are holidays, where traditional sharing of the meat of slaughtered animals eases restrictions imposed on the
indivisibility of livestock.

8
within 5 hours travel time to a market (Figure 5.2 and 5.3).Sheep and goat production within
5 hours travel time to a market increased more than 20 percentage points from 2001 to 2007
in Amhara and SNNP and more than 15 percentage points in Tigray and Oromiya. Overall,
in the four major regions, cattle population within 3 hours travel time to a livestock market
increased by more than 10 percentage points between 2001 and 2007 (Appendix E).
Figure 5.1—Percent of cattle located within 5 hours of a livestock market, 2001 and
2007

Source: Authors’ calculation

Note: SNNPR = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

Figure 5.2—Percent of sheep and goats located within 5 hours of a livestock market,
2001 and 2007

Source: Authors’ calculation

Note: SNNPR = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

9
Figure 5.3—Access to livestock markets and regional cattle share, 2001 and 2007

Source: Authors’ calculation

Notes: Markets are classified according to Legese et al. (2008). Secondary and tertiary markets consist of 500–1000 head of
livestock marketed per day primarily by producers and local assemblers. Primary markets carry over 1000 head per day by
local assemblers to big traders to butchers.

10
6. Change in pressure on grazing land in Ethiopia
Livestock production has not only experienced significant changes in transportation
infrastructure over time, but pressure on grazing land is also increasing due to greater
population density, larger herd sizes, and relatively fixed grazing land resources. Given that
commercial feed production and cultivation of feed has not been adopted in most areas of
Ethiopia, natural pasture and crop residues are the major source of livestock feed (Bizuwerk
et al. 2005; Desalew 2008; Teklu, Negesse, and Angassa 2010). However, the size of
natural pastures is declining due to an annual average human population increase of 2.6
percent (Degefe and Nega 2000; CSA 2008b).
A comprehensive study of land cover has not been completed since the Woody Biomass
Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP) in 2000. 13 More targeted analyses of
specific areas have assessed grazing pressure, and suggest availability and quality of
grazing lands have declined (Benin, Ehui, and Pender 2002). Similarly, Zeleke and Hurni
(2001) attempted to analyze land cover change around Dembecha woreda in Amhara region
and estimated a decline of forest, bush land, and grassland land cover from 80 percent in
1957 to 11 percent in 1995 (Zeleke and Hurni 2001). According to analyses conducted in
Benishangul Gumuz region, clearing of land is a means of obtaining new farmland for 70
percent of farmers (Teklu, Negesse, and Angassa 2011).
In order to provide an approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of
grazing land, we have paired the land cover data produced by the WBISPP in 2000 with the
estimated woreda livestock production figures from 2001 through 2008. We consider
grassland, shrub land, cultivated areas, and wood lands as potential grazing lands and
assume a constant grazing area over time; we then estimate the change in grazing land
pressure given the change in livestock population. 14 We focus on cattle, goat, and sheep
production in terms of tropical livestock units (TLU) to estimate density figures. Note that we
have disregarded other livestock production (i.e. camel, donkey, chicken etc.).
Compared to other countries in East Africa, Ethiopia has the largest land area but the
second densest livestock population after Uganda. Total land area in Ethiopia is
approximately 1.1 million km2, nearly two times as large as Somalia with 633,000 km2 and
almost 6 times larger than Uganda with 200,000 km2 of total area (Table 6.1).

Table 6.1—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of land in East Africa

2
Cattle Sheep and goat TLU Total km 2
Country TLU per km
(thousands) (thousands) (thousands) (thousands)
Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30
Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15
Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 18 16
Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17
Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13
Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44
Source: Authors’ calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)
Note: TLU = Tropical Livestock Unit (Cattle = 0.7, Goat = 0.1, Sheep = 0.1; see Behnke and Osman (2012) for further detail)

13
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in collaboration with the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA) is
currently analysing satellite data on land cover change.
14
Grazing pressure is defined as the number of livestock, in Tropical Livestock Units, per available grazing land.

11
When measuring TLU per square kilometer of grazing land as defined in this paper 15, total
grazing land in Ethiopia is equivalent to 722,128 km2. Within Ethiopia, SNNP, and Amhara
regions have the highest tropical livestock units per square kilometer of grazing land since
2001/02 (Table 6.2 and Figure 6.1). 16 As seen in the market access maps above, the Lake
Tana region of Amhara, and areas near Hoseana and Shasamene in SNNP region are high
livestock producing areas that benefit from access to important trading and market centers
with dense settlement patterns. These areas have experienced greater agglomeration
economies during the last decade, which continue to bolster activity along important
transportation corridors. According to Schmidt and Kedir (2009), urban population increased
from 2.2 percent in 1997 to 21 percent in 2007 in SNNP region as new cities and improved
roads developed in the northeast area of the region; Amhara’s urban population nearly
doubled from 3.7 to 7.5 percent over the same period.
Benishangul Gumuz and Gambella remain the regions with the lowest density of livestock,
which may be due to a variety of reasons including higher livestock disease and death
among cattle, sheep and goats (Figure 6.2). Although livestock death and disease is clearly
an issue in Benishangul Gumuz, data suggest that veterinary care is absent in a large part of
Ethiopia. CSA reports suggest that approximately 26 percent of cattle and 12 percent of
sheep and goats were vaccinated during 2005–2009 (CSA 2006, 2007, 2008a). These
reports also highlight that less than half of the sick cattle and 25 to 30 percent of sick sheep
and goats were treated by a certified veterinarian. Given limited veterinary services,
smallholder farmers that are remote from important livestock centers may be disinclined to
make substantive investments in improved livestock breeds.

Table 6.2—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of grazing land

2
Total grazing Tropical Livestock Units per km grazing land
land* (thousands)
2
Region (km ) 2001/02 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Tigray 47,431 44 46 51 55
Afar 40,394 57 38 41 41
Amhara 138,085 60 60 63 70
Oromiya 282,026 48 50 54 59
Somali 49,553 12 11 13 16
Benishangul Gumuz 45,807 5 6 6 7
SNNP 97,975 69 63 67 75
Gambella 19,517 5 5 6 8
Harari 355 74 84 85 94
Addis Ababa 308 193 65 71 216
Dire Dawa 677 74 66 68 83
Ethiopia 722,128 74 73 77 87
Source: Authors’ calculations
Notes: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region; * Grazing land is defined as grassland, shrub land,
cultivated areas, and wood land according to the WBISPP land cover dataset

15
We define grazing land using the WBISPP land cover data and assume grassland, shrub land, cultivated areas, and wood
land comprise the major areas for grazing. This area is then summed and reclassified as grazing land for purposes of this
study.
16
We exclude major urban areas (Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari), as these are more centers for trade than production.

12
Figure 6.1—Change in pressure on grazing land between 2001/02 and 2007/08

Source: Authors’ calculation

Figure 6.2—Estimated percent of livestock disease and death* in 2007/08

60
Cattle - Diseased

50 Sheep and goat - Diseased

Cattle - Died
40 Sheep and goat - Died

30

20

10

Source: CSA (2008a)

Notes: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region; *Death includes livestock that died from disease as well
as livestock that died from other causes.

13
7. Conclusions
Ethiopia is the largest livestock producer in Africa, with Oromiya, Amhara, and SNNP
regions producing 87 percent of Ethiopia’s cattle and 75 percent of its sheep and goats in
2007/08. Data suggest that livestock production will continue to grow, with the highland
regions producing the largest share of cattle, sheep, and goats. Recent analyses suggest
that Ethiopia’s steady economic growth and urbanization will continue to increase the
demand for livestock as animal products become a major source of protein (Seré et al. 2008;
Hall et al. 2004; Delgado et al. 1999). Negassa (2009) found that 90 percent of surveyed
households expressed willingness to consume more livestock products if they had higher
incomes. Currently, this hypothesized increase in demand of livestock products would need
to be serviced by the main highland producing regions.
Data on herd composition suggest that sheep and goat population is increasing compared to
cattle in most areas of Ethiopia. This is similar for other countries in East Africa such as
Kenya. While cattle production is important in the highlands for mixed-crop activities, sheep
and goat production continues to increase throughout the country. This increase may be due
to grazing land constraints for cattle and the greater flexibility of grazing behavior of sheep
and goats.
Market access is important. In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle in the four major
highland regions were located within 5 hours travel time of a livestock market. Compared to
cattle production, sheep and goat production may be less dependent on market accessibility.
Nonetheless, a majority of sheep and goats (more than 66 percent) in Oromiya, Amhara,
Tigray, and SNNP were found within 5 hours travel time to a market. Market access
continues to improve, and certain regions have experienced major improvements in travel
time to markets due to improved road infrastructure. In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle
population in Amhara region was located within 5 hours to a livestock market. This figure
reached 73 percent in 2007/08. Similarly, from 2001/02 to 2007/08, the percentage of cattle
located within 5 hours of market grew from 64 to 81 and from 63 to 78 in Oromiya and
SNNP, respectively.
Finally, pressure on grazing land is also increasing due to greater human population density,
larger herd sizes, and relatively fixed grazing land resources. Of East African countries,
Ethiopia has the largest land area and the second highest livestock density (in terms of cattle
and sheep and goats). Further research on land cover change and livestock growth in the
highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land and environmental viability in
coming years. In addition, greater data collection in agro-pastoralist and pastoralist areas will
be vital in assessing the livestock sector and its potential for greater growth and future
marketability.

14
Appendix

Appendix A: Livestock production 2005–2008

Table A.1—Regional livestock population, 2005/06 (thousands)

Region Cattle Goat Sheep Region share
Tigray 2,646.2 2,412.6 814.5 7.1
Afar 1,499.4 3,109.4 1,550.8 7.4
Amhara 10,090.3 4,866.2 7,530.9 27.1
Oromiya 18,252.3 5,415.7 8,056.7 38.2
Somali 562.0 722.0 631.6 2.3
Benishangul Gumuz 350.4 314.3 69.0 0.9
SNNP 8,059.6 2,061.1 3,404.6 16.3
Gambella 136.3 53.0 47.2 0.3
Harari 37.4 32.8 4.5 0.1
Addis Ababa 26.3 4.1 11.1 0.0
Dire Dawa 38.4 124.1 54.2 0.3
Ethiopia 41,698.6 19,115.4 22,175.1 100.0
Source: Authors’ calculations; Agricultural Sample Survey 2005/06, CSA
Notes: Data for Somali and Afar regions are limited to accessible, sedentary areas; SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples region

Table A.2—Regional livestock population, 2006/07 (thousands)

Region Cattle Goat Sheep Region share
Tigray 2,952.2 2,771.3 973.5 7.4
Afar 1,652.1 3,372.5 1,667.3 7.4
Amhara 10,497.6 5,152.8 8,237.1 26.3
Oromiya 19,648.9 5,800.8 9,203.1 38.1
Somali 659.1 1,123.4 786.1 2.8
Benishangul Gumuz 322.7 339.5 89.1 0.8
SNNP 8,476.0 2,550.0 4,031.7 16.6
Gambella 138.8 54.0 48.1 0.3
Harari 37.5 34.4 4.3 0.1
Addis Ababa 29.2 3.7 10.7 0.0
Dire Dawa 39.0 137.3 48.7 0.2
Ethiopia 44,453.1 21,339.7 25,099.7 100.0
Source: Authors’ calculations; Agricultural Sample Survey 2006/07, CSA
Notes: Data for Somali and Afar regions are limited to accessible, sedentary areas; SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples region

15
Appendix B: Estimated livestock population by woreda 17

Figure B.1—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2001/02

Source: Authors’ calculation, EASE 2001/02, CSA

Figure B.2—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2007/08

Source: Authors’ calculation, Agricultural Sample Survey 2006/07, CSA

17
Woreda level numbers are estimated for 2007/08 using the Agricultural Census shares from 2001/02

16
Figure B.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2001/02

Source: Authors’ calculation, EASE 2001/02, CSA

Figure B.4—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2007/08

Source: Authors’ calculation, Agricultural Sample Survey 2007/08, CSA

17
Appendix C: EASE census livestock count

Table C.1—EASE census livestock count, 2001/02 (thousands)

Region Cattle Goat Sheep Sheep and goat Sheep and goat : Cattle
Tigray 2,665.1 1,759.1 686.7 2,445.8 0.92
Afar 2,336.5 4,268.0 2,463.6 6,731.6 2.88
Amhara 10,487.3 3,814.2 5,305.0 9,119.2 0.87
Oromiya 18,035.7 4,175.0 4,685.8 8,860.7 0.49
Somali 642.9 752.1 704.9 1,457.1 2.27
Benishangul Gumuz 309.5 200.5 58.8 259.2 0.84
SNNP 8,831.5 2,651.1 3,169.8 5,820.9 0.66
Gambella 126.2 49.1 43.7 92.8 0.74
Harari 34.0 19.1 5.8 24.9 0.73
Addis Ababa 79.9 17.1 19.5 36.6 0.46
Dire Dawa 54.2 91.0 34.0 125.0 2.31
Ethiopia 43,606.1 17,796.3 17,177.6 34,973.8 0.80
Source: CSA 2002
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

Appendix D: Estimated livestock population in Somali Regional State

Table D.1—Estimated livestock populations in Somali Regional State, 2009

Cattle Sheep Goats Camels
Afder 166,471 1,152,509 722,709 140,454
Degehabur 51,536 1,395,779 721,925 131,106
Fik 17,072 57,561 141,475 25,605
Gode 165,277 517,668 985,869 115,498
Korahe 26,301 362,778 690,891 149,971
Shinile 207,472 670,956 849,451 103,052
Warder 36,146 2,253,550 1,413,143 376,183
Jijiga (2009) CSA* 372,940 852,393 603,098 76,952
Liben (2009) CSA* 228,765 182,100 487,776 149,873
Regional estimated total 1,271,980 7,445,294 6,616,337 1,268,694
Source: Behnke 2010, * CSA AgSS figures 2009

Appendix E: Travel time of livestock production to markets

Table E.1—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2001/02 (percent)

Region < 1 hour 1-3 3-5 5 - 10 >10 hours
Tigray - 23.13 47.04 29.35 0.48
Afar - - 12.95 72.76 14.28
Amhara - 24.66 32.77 26.27 16.3
Oromiya 1.18 28.93 34.26 31.31 4.32
Somali - 0.6 19.25 54.89 25.26
Benishangul Gumuz - - 10.27 62.55 27.18
SNNP 2.46 33.29 27.29 13.36 23.6
Gambella - - - 23.01 76.99
Harari - 100 - - -
Addis Ababa 7.59 92.41 - - -
Dire Dawa - - 100 - -
Ethiopia 1.00 26.31 31.63 28.99 12.07
Source: Authors’ calculation
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

18
Table E.2—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2001/02
(percent)
Region < 1 hour 1-3 3-5 5 - 10 >10 hours
Tigray - 16.57 45.79 36.69 0.96
Afar - - 10.04 66.34 23.62
Amhara - 15.03 28.47 29.83 26.67
Oromiya 1.02 32.05 32.09 29.82 5.02
Somali - 0.34 9.29 62.18 28.2
Benishangul Gumuz - - 3.51 49.5 46.99
SNNP 0.87 25.27 16.43 14.88 42.55
Gambella - - - 15.62 84.38
Harari - 100 - - -
Addis Ababa 10.08 89.92 - - -
Dire Dawa - - 100 - -
Ethiopia 0.41 17.58 24.19 36.14 21.67
Source: Authors’ calculation
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

Table E.3—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2007/08 (percent)

Region < 1 hour 1-3 3-5 5 - 10 >10 hours
Tigray - 38.28 38.44 22.8 0.48
Afar - - 27.53 53.55 18.92
Amhara - 35.3 38.04 26.27 0.39
Oromiya 1.17 43.1 37.17 17.06 1.5
Somali - 0.49 15.73 58.41 25.36
Benishangul Gumuz - - 16.22 57.66 26.12
SNNP 8.37 49.98 19.37 16.18 6.09
Gambella - - - 40.7 59.3
Harari - 100 - - -
Addis Ababa 46.55 53.45 - - -
Dire Dawa - 100 - - -
Ethiopia 2.24 39.76 33.00 21.60 3.41
Source: Authors’ calculation
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

Table E.4—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2007/08
(percent)
Region < 1 hour 1-3 3-5 5 - 10 >10 hours
Tigray - 36.36 39.88 22.88 0.88
Afar - - 15.39 55.67 28.94
Amhara - 28.68 37.6 32.33 1.39
Oromiya 1.19 45.19 36.36 15.42 1.84
Somali - 0.23 6.35 68.85 24.57
Benishangul Gumuz - - 8.46 53.57 37.97
SNNP 5.68 44.57 15.8 22.52 11.43
Gambella - - - 41.54 58.46
Harari - 100 - - -
Addis Ababa 55.32 44.68 - - -
Dire Dawa - 100 - - -
Ethiopia 1.16 32.30 30.04 29.21 7.29
Source: Authors’ calculation
Note: SNNP = Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples region

19
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