Module -6 Quantitative Techniques for Decision making

Module -6
THEORY OF PROBABILITY
Probability theory allows the decision maker with only limited information to analyze the risks
and minimize the gamble inherent, for example, in marketing a new product or accepting an
incoming shipment possibly containing defective parts.

 It is a number that describes the chance that something will happen. This number lies
between zero and one.
 The closer a probability is to 0, the more improbable it is the event will happen.
 The closer the probability is to 1, the more sure we are it will happen.
 Three key words are used in the study of probability: experiment, outcome and event

Experime nt: It is a process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of several possible
observations. Example, the tossing of a coin is an experiment

Outcome : this is a particular result of an experiment. For example all possible outcomes from a
toss of a die are [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Event: Result of any experiment

Mutually exclusive events: the happening of one event eliminates the happening of other events.
For example, Head / Tai of tossing a coin

Mutually equally likely events: The happening of all events are having same chances. For
example, Giving birth for a Boy or Girl in case of delivery is having equal chances

Probability : P(E) of an event E is equal to the number of possible simple events (outcomes)
favorable to A divided by the total number of possible simple events of the experiment, i.e.,

P(E) = =

Properties: The probability of the impossible event is zero, P (0) =0.

The probability of any event E lies between 0 and 1.

1. If we tossed a coin twice. What is the probability of getting two consecutive tails ?

When a coin is tossed twice, the sample space (Possible outcomes) is {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T,
T)} = 4

Our desired event (Favorable case) is (T,T) whose occurrence is only once out of four possible
outcomes and hence,

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P(E) = = =

2. Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If
a pen is drawn at random from the pack, replaced and the process repeated 2 more
times, What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?

Solution

Here, total number of pens = 9

Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4 C1 /9 C1 = 4/9

Probability of drawing another blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/9

3. From a well shuffled pack of cards, What is the probability of drawing a

a. king
b. Red card
c. Diamond card
Solution

Here, total number of cards = 52

Probability of drawing King = 4/52

Probability of drawing Red = 26/52
Probability of drawing Diamond = 13/52

THE ADDITION RULE

If A and B are defined on a sample space, then:

P(A OR B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A AND B)

P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A Ո B)

4. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A and B)=0.P(A Ո B)=0 A community
swim team has 150 members. Seventy-five of the me mbers are advanced
swimme rs. Forty-seven of the me mbers are intermediate swimmers. The re mainder
is novice swimme rs. Forty of the advanced swimme rs practice four times a
week. Thirty of the interme diate swimme rs practice four times a week. Ten of the
novice s wimme rs practice four times a week. Suppose one me mbe r of the swim team
is chosen randomly.

a. What is the probability that the member is a novice swimmer?

b. What is the probability that the member practices four times a week?

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c. What is the probability that the me mber is an advanced swimme r and practices
four times a week?
d. What is the probability that a membe r is an advanced swimmer and an
intermediate swimme r? Are being an advanced swimme r and an intermediate
swimmer mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

Answer

a. 28/150
b. 80/150
c. 40//150
d. P(advanced AND intermediate)=0P(advanced AND intermediate)=0, so these are
mutually exclusive events. A swimmer cannot be an advanced swimmer and an
intermediate swimmer at the same time.
P(A OR B)=P(A)+P(B)

THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

If A and B are two events defined on a sample space, then:

P(A and B)=P(B)P(A|B)

P(A Ո B)=P(B)P(A|B)

If A & B are independent, then P(A Ո B)=P(B).PB)

5. A box contains 10 balls out of which 2 are green, 5 are red and 3 are black. If two
balls are drawn at random, one after the other from the box.
Find the probabilities that:
I. With replacement
a. both the balls are of green color
b. both the balls are of black color
c. both the balls are of red color
d. the first ball is red and the second one is black
e. the first ball is green and the second one is red

II. Without replacement

f. both the balls are of green color
g. both the balls are of black color
h. both the balls are of red color
i. the first ball is red and the second one is black
j. the first ball is green and the second one is red

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Solution: A box contains 10 balls out of which 2 are green, 5 are red and 3 are black.

I. With replacement
k. both the balls are of green color =

l. both the balls are of black color =

m. both the balls are of red color =

n. the first ball is red and the second one is black =

o. the first ball is green and the second one is red =

II. Without replacement

p. both the balls are of green color =

q. both the balls are of black color =

r. both the balls are of red color =

s. the first ball is red and the second one is black =

t. the first ball is green and the second one is red =

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Probability Distributions
Binomial Distribution:
The Binomial distribution computes the probabilities of events where only two
possible outcomes can occur (success or failure True or False). This distribution was
discovered by James Bernoulli. It occurs in cases of repeated trials such as tossing a coin, births
in a hospital etc. Here all the trials are assumed to be independent and each trial has only two
outcomes namely success and failure.

Let an experiment consist of “n” independent trials. Let it succeed “x” times. Let “p” be the
probability of success and “q” be the probability of failure in each trial. Then p + q = 1

The probability of getting x successes = p.p.p............p(x times) = px

The probability of getting (n – x) failures = q.q.q...........q[(n – x) times] = q(n – x)

This is the probability of getting x successes in one combination. There are such n Cx mutually
exclusive combinations each with probability p x q(n – x).

 The probability of getting x success in

n
Cx px q(n – x).

Notation: Binomial distribution with x successes, n trials and with p as the probability of
success.

 b(x; n, p) = nCx px q(n – x), x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . ., n.

Here,
x = the number of successes
n=the number of trials
p=the probability of success on a single trial
q=the probability of failure on a single trail

Parameters of Binomial distribution

Mean = np

Variance = npq

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1. Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting

a. 5 heads
b. No heads
c. At least seven heads?

Solution: Total no.of trails n = 10,

1 1
Probability of heads p = = 0.5 and q = 1 – p = = 0.5
2 2
a. 5 heads
P(X = 5) = 10 C0 (0.5)7 (0.5)3
P(X = 5) = 10 C5 (0.5)7 (0.5)3

b. 0 heads
P(X = 0) = 10 C0 (0.5)0 (0.5)10
P(X = 5) = 10 C5 (0.5)0 (0.5)10

c. At least seven heads

P(X  7) = P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)

= 10 C7 (0.5)7 (0.5)3 + 10 C8 (0.5)8 (0.5)2 + 10 C9 (0.5)9 (1 C2 )1 + 10 C10 (1 C2)10 (1 C2 )0
= 0.172

2. If 3 of 20 tyres are defective and 4 of them are randomly chosen for inspection.
What is the probability that only one of the defective tyres will be included?

Solution:
No.of tyres (n) = 4,
3
Probability of defective p=
20
17
q = 1- p =
20
probability that only one of the defective tyres

P(x) = nCx px q(n – x),

P(X  3) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
P(x = 1) = 4 C1 (p)1 (q)(4 - 1)

= 0.368

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3. If the probability that a pe rson will not like a ne w tooth paste is 0.20. What is the
probability that 5 out of 10 randomly selected persons will dislike it?

Solution: Given that,

Probability that person a will not like a new tooth paste p = 0.20
q = 1-0.2 = 0.8

The probability that 5 out of 10 randomly selected persons will dislike is,

P(X = 5) = 10 C5 (0.2)5 (0.8)5

P(X = 5) = 10 C5 (0.2)5 (0.8)5

P(X = 5) = 0.0264

4. If A and B play game in which their chances of winning are in the ratio 3:2. Find
A’s chance of winning at least three games out of the five games played?

Solution: Given that,

The probability that A winning the game p= 3/5 = 0.6

The probability that A winning the game p= 2/5 = 0.4

The probability that A’s chance of winning at least three games out of the five games is

P(x) = nCx px q(n – x)

P(X  3) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)

= 5 C3 (0.6)3 (0.4)2 + 5 C4 (0.6)4 (0.4)1 + 5 C0 (0.6)5 (0.4)0

= 5 C3 (0.6)3 (0.4)2 + 5 C4 (0.6)4 (0.4)1 + 5 C0 (0.6)5 (0.4)0

= 0.68
5. Out of 800 families with 5 children each, how many would you expect to have
(i) 3 boys
(ii) 5 boys and
(iii) Either 2 or 3 boys?
Assuming that equal probabilities for girls and boys

Solution: Total no.of families =800,

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1
Probability of getting a Boy p = = 0.5
2
1
Probability of getting a Girl q = = 0.5
2
No.of Children in the family n = 5

 The Binomial distribution becomes P(x) = nCx px q(n – x)

P(X ) = 5 Cx (0.5)x (0.5)5-x

(i) The probability of getting 3 boys

P(X =3) = 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)5-3

P(X =3) = 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)5-3

P(X =3) =

No.of families of having 3 boys = toala families x respective prababiity

` = 800x
(ii) The probability of getting 5 boys

P(X =5) = 5 C5 (0.5)5 (0.5)5-0

P(X =5) =

P(X =5) =

No.of families of having 5 boys = toala families x respective prababiity

` = 800x

(iii) The probability of getting either 2 or 3 boys

P(X =2) + P(X =3) = 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)5-3 + 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)5-3

P(X =2) + P(X =3) =

No.of families of having 5 boys = toala families x respective prababiity

` = 800x

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6. A shipment of 20 tape recorde rs contains 5 defectives find the standard deviation of

the probability distribution of the number of defectives in a sample of 10 randomly
chosen for inspection?

Solution: Given that,

Total no.of samples n =10

Probability of defectives p = 5/20 = 0.25.

q= 0.75

Mean = np = 10x0.25 =

Variance = npq = 10x0.25x0.75 =

Standard deviation = 8 / 5 (S.D.)

Exercise Problems

1. Find the probability of guessing correctly at least 6 of the 10 answers on a true-false

193
examination? [Ans. ]
512
1
2. The probability that a bomb dropped from a plane will strike the target is . If six bombs
5
are dropped, find the probability that (i) exactly two will strike the target, (ii) at least two
will strike the target. [Ans.(i)0.246(ii)0.345]

3. If the probability of a defective bolt is 0.1, find (i) the mean and (ii) the standard
deviation for the distribution of defective bolts in a total of 400? [Ans. (i) 40 (ii) 6]

4. If the probability that a person will not like a new tooth paste is 0.20. what is the
probability that 5 out of 10 randomly selected persons will dislike it? [Ans.0.0264]

4
5. The mean and variance of binomial distribution are 4 and respectively. Find P(X  1)?
3
[Ans.0.9983]
6. If the probability that a new-born child is a male is 0.6, find the probability that in a
family of 5 children there are exactly 3 boys? [Ans. 0.3456]
7. Find the probability of guessing correctly at least 6 of the 10 answers on a true-false
193
examination? [Ans. ]
512

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Module -6 Quantitative Techniques for Decision making

8. If the probability of a defective bolt is 0.1, find (i) the mean and (ii) the standard
deviation for the distribution of defective bolts in a total of 400? [Ans. (i) 40 (ii) 6]

9. Find the probability that in a family of 4 children there will be (i) at least 1 boy and (ii) at
15
least 1 boy and 1 girl? [Ans. (i) (ii) ]
16 c

10. If 20% of the memory chips made in a certain plant are defective what are the
probabilities that in a lot of 100 randomly chosen for inspection ( i) at most 15 will be
defective ( ii) exactly 15 will be defective. [Ans. i) 0.1292 ii) 0.0454]

Definition: A random variable X is said to follow Poisson distribution if its probability mass
x
function is given by P(x,  ) = e  , for x = 0, 2, 3, . . .
x!

1. In a firm, the average no.of defectives in a certain assortment are 2. Ifwe choose
another assortme nt, find the probability that we get (i) exactly 3dfectives (ii) more
than 2 defectives?

Solution: Given
The average no.of defectives in a assortment  = 2

x
 The Poisson distribution becomes P(x, ) = e  ,
x!

(i) The probability of getting 3dfectives

e   x e  2 23 4
P(X=3)    2  0.1804
x! 3! 3e

(ii) The probability of getting more than 2 defectives

P(X > 2) = 1 – P(X 2)

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= 1 – [P(X=0) +P(x=1) + P(x=2)]

e   0 e   1 e   2
=1–[ + + ]
0! 1! 2!
2
= 1 –e- [1++ ]
2
= 1 – 5e-2
= 0.323.
2. A hospital switch board receives an average of 4 emergency calls in a 10 min.
interval. What is the probability that (i) there are at the most 2 emergency calls and
(ii) there are exactly 3 emergency calls in a 10 min. interval?

Solution: Given that,

The average no.of calls in a certain time =4,

i. The probability that there are at the most 2 emergency calls

P(X 2) = P(X= 0)+P(X=1)+ P(X= 2)

e   0 e   1 e   2
  
0! 1! 2!
2
= e-[1++ ]
2
= e-4 [1+4+8]
= 13 e-4
= 0.238.
ii. The probability that exactly 3 emergency calls

e   3 e  4 4 3
P(X= 3) =   0.195
3! 3!

3. In a factory which turns out razor blades, there is a chance of 0.002 for any blade to
be defective in packets of 10 each. Using Poisson distribution, Calculate the
approximate numbe r of packets containing no defective, one defective and two
defective blades if there are 10,000 such packets?

Solution: Given
The average / chance of a defective blade  = 0.002

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Then the Poisson distribution P(x) =

Then the Poisson distribution P(x) =

(i) Then the probability of no defective in a pack P(X = 0) =

(ii) Then the probability of one defective in a pack P(X = 1) =

(iii) Then the probability of two defective in a pack P(X = 2) =

Exercise Problems

1. On average 30 students came to attend the class today, find the probability for exactly 34
students to attend the classes tomorrow.
2. According to survey a professor gets on average of 7 emais per day, whai is the
probability that
a. He will receive 4 mails a day
b. He will receive 5 or 6 mails a day

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