CARE Climate Change

time to lead for a safer future

 CONTENTS

SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS 3

CLIMATE CHANGE DISRUPTS DEVELOPMENT 4

G20 AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS 5

CLIMATE CHANGE DISRUPTS DEVELOPMENT 6

1.5ºC: THE RECORD WE MUST NOT BREAK 7

G20 COUNTRIES: MAJOR HISTORICAL CONTRIBUTORS TO HARMFUL EMISSIONS 8

PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR CLIMATE & PEOPLE 9

EXTREME WEATHER HITS G20 AND CAUSES LOSSES 10

G20 PREPARE FOR IMPACTS, BUT OTHER COUNTRIES ARE MORE VULNERABLE 11

G20 FAIL TO STOP SUBSIDISING HARMFUL FOSSIL FUELS 12

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GENDER EQUALITY: MORE WORK AHEAD 13

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN G20 MUST INCREASE ADAPTATION FINANCE 14

RECOMMENDATIONS 15

REFERENCES 16

2
 SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS Four Key Actions
PROTECT THE POOR FROM CLIMATE RISKS
The G20 countries should commit to increasing the protection of the poor

Four Key Facts

and vulnerable, in particular women and girls, against climate risks through
proactive adaptation, pro-poor insurance approaches, and investing into social
protection systems in vulnerable developing countries. Developed countries in
G20 FEEL CLIMATE IMPACTS & ADAPT the G20 need to ramp up adaptation and loss and damage nance to poor
Climate impacts have already hit G20 countries, and analyses show they are countries and cooperation with V20 countries and Africa needs to be intensied.
not equally vulnerable nor prepared, but have started to adapt. However,
many poorer countries are more vulnerable with less capacity. PROMOTE RADICAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS
TOWARDS 1.5°C LIMIT
CLIMATE CHANGE DISRUPTS DEVELOPMENT All G20 governments should provide Nationally Determined Contributions
One of the greatest inequalities in the world is reected in the causes and (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement with high ambition levels that are consistent
consequences of climate change. People living in poverty, in particular women with the 1.5°C limit, backed up by mid-century strategies to be delivered by
and girls, who are the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, bear all G20 by 2018. This should be complemented by concrete action initiatives
the brunt of climate impacts. Without urgent action to limit warming to 1.5°C which deliver additional emission reductions before 2020, in particular by
and to scale-up adaptation efforts immediately, it could become impossible accelerating the shift to 100% renewable energy.
for poor people to secure their livelihoods and to reach a wide range of
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY & HUMAN RIGHTS
IN CLIMATE ACTION
G20 CAN LEAD SHIFT TO 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY G20 countries should commit to fully promoting gender equality and human
In many G20 countries a renewable energy revolution has started, with falling rights in all climate action. G20 countries should promise to regularly
prices helping to tackle energy poverty. This has opened up more mitigation exchange experience and report on progress achieved in this regard (incl. in
potential to bring the world on a 1.5°C and 100% renewable energy pathway, relation to the NDCs). They should also promise to support the adoption and
but G20 still subsidise fossil fuels at unacceptable levels. implementation of a strong gender action plan under the UNFCCC.

G20 ARE UNEQUALLY RESPONSIBLE PHASE OUT FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES

G20 countries are responsible for more than 99% of historic carbon emissions. & MAKE FINANCE SUSTAINABLE
While China and the US are the biggest current total emitters, US and the EU G20 must agree on the equitable, pro-poor phase out of all fossil fuel subsidies and
still remain the main polluters in a historic perspective since 1850, and India should redirect these to sustainable sources of renewable energy and energy efciency
and Indonesia have the lowest per capita emissions. From this responsibility by 2020. G20 must cooperate to make nancial investments sustainable and advance
comes an obligation to act and support others, but the G20 action pledges poverty-sensitive carbon pricing to invest into climate and SDG action.
are not yet sufcient, while some are worse than others.

3
 CLIMATE CHANGE DISRUPTS DEVELOPMENT

CARE’s FIVE KEY DEMANDS

FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE Lucy Beck/CARE ©

1. Governments must take concrete steps

to put the 1.5°C limit into practice People living in poverty, who are the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, bear the brunt of climate impacts.
and shift to 100% pro-poor renewable CARE is already seeing how climate change is eroding and reversing development gains and exacerbating
energies in an equitable manner. gender inequality and social and economic injustices across the world. Climate change is increasingly affecting
everything that CARE does and poses a signicant threat to our vision of a world of hope, tolerance and social
2. Governments must scale-up support for justice where poverty has been overcome and people live in dignity and security. Without urgent action, this could
gender-equitable, pro-poor adaptation make it impossible for poor and marginalised people to reach a wide range of poverty eradication and sustainable
to climate change impacts in developing development goals. CARE is already very active in helping communities adapt to the impacts of climate change and
countries to build resilience. build resilience, and has produced a range of learning tools based upon its experiences, and engages in advocacy
3. Governments need to address the and communications.
growing loss and damage from climate
change impacts and scale-up nance for Globally, we have seen absolute record temperatures in 2015/2016 and the previous years. In 2016, every month was
loss and damage. hotter, globally, than previously, and saw the biggest jump in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.1 Millions of people
have been suffering across the globe from the impacts of climate change. For example, the El Niño-driven drought,
4. Countries must promote sustainable,
made worse by climate change, is exacerbating food insecurity, a strong indication of the severe climate adaptation
productive, equitable and resilient
and disaster preparedness gap. Globally, the number of people who are displaced from their homes, many of them
agriculture through domestic action and
due to extreme weather events, is unprecedented. This situation is regarded as the biggest humanitarian crisis since
international cooperation on sustainable
the 2nd world war.
agriculture and food and nutrition security.
5. Governments need to promote and
respect gender equality and human rights “One of the greatest inequalities in the world is reected in the causes
in all climate action. and consequences of climate change which threatens the livelihoods of
billions of people, especially women and girls.”
Wolfgang Jamann, CEO and Secretary General of CARE International

4
 G20 AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS

The G20, created in 1999, is comprised of 19 countries - Argentina, Australia, Brazil,

Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States - and
the European Union. As the world’s largest emitters, responsible for over 80% of
current greenhouse gas emissions and representing 85% of global GDP and 51% of
the population, it is the responsibility of the G20 to lead the reduction of emissions
though a transition to renewables and adequate climate nance.2 Of course, within
the group of countries the responsibilities vary, with different levels of cumulative
historic and current emissions and different obligations under the UN Climate Change
Convention. For example, current per capita emissions in the US and Canada are
approximately 10 times higher than in India.3

As the Earth’s temperature continues to increase, it is vital that the G20 countries
commit to the mission of addressing and adapting to climate change and play a
pivotal role in meeting the commitments to the Paris Agreement to prevent the global
temperature from rising above 1.5ºC.

G20 countries have signicant inuence on the design and implementation of the
global climate change regime. The German G20 Presidency decided to put sustainable
energy and climate change on the 2017 agenda, along with further work on advancing
the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. Vulnerable country groups,
like the Climate Vulnerable Forum/V20, have urged G20 to take more ambitious actions.
The aim of this report is to dive deeper into the G20’s role in confronting climate
change from the perspective of the poorest and most vulnerable, with a differentiated
analysis recognising the block’s diversity. It does so by analyzing various data sources,
rankings and indices developed by other think tanks and scientic institutions in order
to highlight which of the countries are performing well and which are not, as well as
who needs to ramp up adaptive efforts based on risk and climate resilience. The report
outlines the current G20 climate change picture and provides recommendations
on key steps and agreements G20 countries need to take in 2017.
5
Andreas Habich (CC BY-SA 3.0) ©
 PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR CLIMATE & PEOPLE
Employing more renewable energy is one of the main strategies to mitigate emissions, which further escalate climate change. Governments, business and other non-state actors must
now follow-up the Paris Agreement with increased urgent action to prevent average global warming from rising 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by transitioning to 100% renewable
energy (and other measures). This transition must be just and equitable, and thus aid in granting energy access for the poor. 100% renewable energy must be the key strategy of fair,
sustainable and equitable action for 1.5°C, rather than placing hopes on unproven, speculative technologies which entail signicant environmental and social risks to marginalized
and poor communities. The G20 produces 76% of the world’s electricity from renewable sources, but has not come close to reaching its potential.

Two indices, Allianz and EY RECAI, analyze investment Allianz Allianz

Disconnected from the grid, and challenged with EY
energy attractiveness, particularly pertaining to Country Investment Investment
long distances to towns and neighbouring villages, RECAI
Attractiveness Needs
renewable energy and sustainable nance. Allianz
people living in Aman Bader, Niger, and other 12 Argentina 16 15
exclusively examines the investment attractiveness
villages engaging in community-based adaptation,
and needs of G20 countries, while EY RECAI analyzes 5 Australia 7 18
with CARE’s Adaptation Learning Programme, now
40 different countries10 including the G20, except for 15 Brazil 13 5
have a reliable source of power for their mobile
Saudi Arabia. 11 Canada 10 9
phones – the sun.
1 China 4 4
In the Allianz index, there is a discrepancy between 8 France 3 12
investment needs and attractiveness. For example, 4 Germany 1 14
India ranks 1 for investment needs, despite ranking 2 India 11 1
11 for attractiveness; the high level of investment No rank Indonesia 15 3
needs are likely due to the large share of India’s
18 Italy 5 17
population, 21%, that still lacks access to electricity.10
7 Japan 8 8
Additionally, the ve G20 countries with the highest
9 Mexico 14 19
investment needs, except for China, are in the bottom
No rank Russia 19 7
10 for investment attractiveness.
No rank Saudi Arabia 18 10

However, when just considering renewable energy 19 South Africa 12 2

attractiveness, rather than the broader investment 33 South Korea 6 11
attractiveness analyzed by Allianz, many of the 17 Turkey 17 16
rankings of the G20 change considerably. Among the 10 United Kingdom 2 13
countries that EY RECAI ranked, Turkey is the only 3 United States 9 6
Agnes Otzelberger/ALP, 2015 country that matches the attractiveness rankings
Table 1: G20 investment attractiveness rankings from EY
from Allianz.12 RECAI and Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor13

8
 EXTREME WEATHER HITS G20 AND CAUSES LOSSES
350
Both the G20 countries and the rest of the world follow
300 the pattern of a steep increase in the occurrence of
natural disasters15 (Figure 3). From 1990 to 2016, the
250

200
Rest of World number of natural disasters worldwide has more than
doubled the total from the previous 89 years. Scientists
have detected the footprint of climate change in
150
increasing the probability and severity of these extreme
100 weather events. This signicant increase is cause for
50
G20 alarm. As climate change continues to accelerate, this
pattern will potentially become more severe and the
0 impacts more catastrophic, despite efforts to reduce
1900

1930

1960

1990

2014
disaster risks.

Figure 3: Number of natural disaster occurrences from 1900-201614

Rankings from the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index (CRI), which analyses the impacts of extreme weather events, vary substantially among G20 countries, from
14 (India) to 122 (Turkey) for the period 1996-2015. Five G20 countries are among the 30 most affected countries: India (14), France (18), Germany (23), Italy (25), US
(28). Looking only at the relative impacts (in relation to population size and GDP), developing nations are some of the most affected by natural disasters. In addition
to being amongst the most exposed regions to climate impacts, developing countries have a low ability to adapt and often lack sufcient economic and political
structures. Among the 10 most affected countries from 1996 to 2015, all are developing countries: Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti, Nicaragua, Philippines, Bangladesh,
Pakistan, Vietnam, Guatemala, and Thailand, respectively.

It is evident that the G20 countries are currently impacted by natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. However, given that the G20 represents 51% of the
world’s population, these nancial superpowers are experiencing much fewer natural disasters per capita than their less equipped counterparts, particularly those in
Africa and other vulnerable regions: 116 (39%) occurrences of natural disasters took place in G20 countries in comparison to 181 (61%) in the rest of the world in
2016.16 With the exception of India, G20 countries are experiencing fewer and less extreme instances of weather impacts compared to the rest of the world, and in
particular the most vulnerable.

9
 G20 PREPARE FOR IMPACTS,
BUT OTHER COUNTRIES ARE MORE VULNERABLE
Readiness Readiness Vulnerability
Many G20 countries undertake signicant investments in either building new or (lowest rank: (lowest rank:
updating existing infrastructure. The steep increase in natural disasters in G20 Country most ready) Economic Social Governance least vulnerable)

countries in the last decades, and the scientic projections for the future (including Argentina 95 59
slow-onset risks such as sea-level rise), make it evident that G20 countries must Australia 13 7
adapt to climate change and develop close to zero-carbon infrastructure. Bringing Brazil 99 40
investments in line with the need to build climate resilience and radically reduce
Canada 17 4
emissions is reected in the goals of the Paris Agreement. Many G20 countries have
already developed comprehensive national climate change adaptation strategies. China 71 30
France 19 12
G20 countries need to give special attention to the poorest and most marginalised Germany 10 3
populations, particularly women and girls, and build their resilience: this must be India 122 118
an essential component of broader national resilience strategies.
Indonesia 109 89
Italy 32 23
The ND GAIN index analyses countries’ readiness and vulnerability to climate change Japan 16 26
impacts. The ve most vulnerable G20 countries are India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia,
Mexico 7 31
South Africa, and Argentina, respectively. Comparatively, the ve countries least ready
Russia 86 45
for climate change impacts are India, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, and Argentina,
respectively. Thus, most of the countries that are least prepared for climate impacts Saudi Arabia 49 5
are also the most vulnerable; these countries, such as India, Indonesia, and Argentina, South Africa 55 72
are at the greatest risk within the G20 group. South Korea 90 71
Turkey 65 41
The country rankings differ greatly for G20 countries among the three categories of
readiness: Economic, Governance and Social. For example, despite ranking 1 (best) in United Kingdom 11 1

social readiness, South Korea ranks 23 for economic readiness and 43 for governance. United States 15 5
This discrepancy highlights the vulnerability of most G20 countries in at least one Colours in order from most ready to least: green, yellow, orange, red
element of the readiness analysis. Though some countries have much lower rankings
across all three categories than others, all G20 countries have at least one area of Table 2: ND-GAIN indicators for vulnerability and readiness17
readiness that needs improvement.

10
 G20 FAIL TO STOP SUBSIDISING HARMFUL FOSSIL FUELS
Subsidies incentivise increased consumption of fossil fuels. For this reason, and many other complexities intertwined with such dirty investments, there has been a push for the G20 to
divest from fossil fuel subsidies. The aim of this phase-out is to increase sustainable investments and decrease risks from unmitigated climate change impacts.18 Despite past pledges
to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, the current level of subsidies by G20 countries is substantial and poses signicant threats to the escalation of climate change. This is also indicated
by the fact that most of the G20 countries, with the exception of Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, substantially increased their post-tax fossil fuel subsidies from
2013 to 2015 (gure 4). 83% of global post-tax subsidies come from G20 countries with, by far, the greatest amount, 2272 billion USD, coming from China.19 However, in terms of per
capita, China only ranks number 4 after Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US, respectively. The largest portion of post-tax subsidies comes from coal, with a total of 286 billion, or 91% of
the global share coming from the G20. After signing the Paris Agreement and creating NDCs to mitigate climate impacts, G20 countries must now stop funding climate change through
fossil fuel subsidies instead of climate action. These dirty investments must be halted to stay within the 1.5°C limit and extracted fossil fuel reserves must be decreased by 75%.

2015 Post-tax 2015 Post-Tax The 20% poorest households in the world are receiving only 7% of fossil fuel subsidies: the impact on poorer nations from
Country Subsidies Subsidies Per Capita divesting from fossil fuels would be less extreme then on their developed counterparts.20 The lack of dependence of the world’s
China 2272 1652
poor on fossil fuel subsidies highlights the fact that pulling away subsidies for dirty fuel will have a much greater impact on
United States 699 2177
the developing world and have minimal impact on the poor. The reduction of fossil fuel subsidies must be done, and such
Russia 335 2334
India 277 217
a divestment can be accomplished in a way that it doesn’t harm the poor in terms of their access to energy and that it
Japan 157 1240 generates additional socio-economic benets, such as improving health through reduced air pollution.
Saudi Arabia 107 3395
Korea 73 1441 427.9
Indonesia 69 271 400
Germany 56 684
Brazil 55 271 300
South Africa 46 845
Canada 46 1283 200
United Kingdom 41 635 93.3
Turkey 39 500 100
11.3 15.3 17.6
Mexico 31 255
0.5 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.5 7.7 7.6 8.6
France 30 469 0
-10.6
-27.6 -27.1 -22.3 -11.3
Australia 30 1259
Argentina 18 413 -100
IDN

MEX

SAU

BRA

ARG

ITA

FRA
ZAF

GBR

DEU

AUS

TUR

CAN

IND

JPN

RUS

USA
KOR

CHN
Italy 13 220

Table 3: Post-tax subsidies in USD Billions and per

capita (Nominal) in 201521 Figure 4: Change in post-tax subsidies in USD billions (nominal) from 2013 to 201522

11
 G20 CLIMATE AMBITION: NOT ENOUGH
The rapid acceleration of climate change simultaneously ramps up the need for more
MEDIUM NDC AMBITION INADEQUATE NDC AMBITION
ambition. If G20 countries fail to increase ambition before 2020, future adaptation will
become more challenging and, in some cases, impossible. To ensure sufcient ambition 43% emissions reduction 33% emissions above to 7%
Brazil by 2030 compared to 2005 Argentina emissions below 2010 levels
to meet the goals set out by the Paris Agreement and prevent an increase in temperature levels** by 2030
above 1.5°C, a rapid transition must be made to a near zero-carbon economy; this must be
facilitated by support from developed countries and exchange and cooperation among all. 60% to 65% decrease in 26%-28% emissions reduction
carbon intensity of GDP by Australia by 2030 compared to 2005
China
2030 compared to 2005 levels
There are no countries within the G20 that have sufcient levels of ambition (according levels
to the Climate Action Tracker) which are levels that are “fully consistent with below 2°C 30% emissions reductions by
30%-35% decrease in Canada
limit” (Figure 6).30 The inadequate or medium levels of ambition from the G20 indicate that emissions intensity of GDP
2030 compared to 2005 levels
India
temperatures are likely to rise above 2°C, let alone 1.5°C, if nothing is changed given their by 2030 compared to 2005
levels 26% emissions reduction by
substantial share of the world’s emissions. Japan
2030 compared to 2013 levels
29%-41% emissions
These ndings coincide with the results from the CSO equity review, which found that mitigation Indonesia reduction below BAU by South 37% emissions reduction
ambition is only 30-44% of what’s needed to prevent a rise above 1.5°C.31 However, when 2030** Korea below BAU by 2030
comparing a subset of G20 country’s 2020 national pledges to their fair share emissions, China, 22%-36% emissions
Mexico 25%-30% emissions reduction
India and Korea emit within or just slightly over their pledge, while the United States, the EU reduction below BAU by 2030 Russia*
by 2030 compared to 1990**
(28), Japan and Russia’s emissions signicantly exceed their national pledges. Relative to 2020
European
pledges, the US, EU and Japan are pledging far below their fair share of contributions to emissions. Saudi 350%-450% emissions above
Union (incl. 40% emissions reduction
Arabia 1990 levels by 2030
France, by 2030 compared to 1990
Recent research also suggests that China and India are making good progress towards Germany, levels**
Italy, UK) South 20-82% emissions above 1990
achieving and potentially over-achieving their Paris Agreement pledges. In stark contrast, Africa* levels by 2030
the decision of the current US president to pull out of the Paris Agreement and the actions
* Has not (yet) ratied the Paris Agreement 21% emissions reduction
initiated to roll back climate-relevant regulation undermines the already only medium level Turkey*
** including LULUCF below BAU by 2030**
of ambition and shifts it to inadequate. Hope rests on states, cities, business etc. in the
US to ght a reversal of the declining emission trend. ***Shifted to inadequate due to 26%-28% emissions reduction
United
announced Paris Agreement withdrawal by 2025 compared to 2005
States***
levels**
This discrepancy in performance among G20 countries illuminates the fact that in terms and regulatory roll-back
of climate change policy the G20 should not be coupled together as one: while some
countries are exhibiting increasing ambition to climate change mitigation, others are Figure 6: NDC targets & level of ambition32
doing very little to alleviate their signicant contributions to the problem.
14
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Authors
Camilla Schramek & Sven Harmeling.

Cover photo: Andreas Habich (CC BY-SA 3.0) ©

Founded in 1945, CARE is a leading humanitarian

organisation ghting global poverty and providing
lifesaving assistance in emergencies. In 90 countries
around the world, CARE places special focus on working
alongside poor girls and women because, equipped with
the proper resources, they have the power to help lift
whole families and entire communities out of poverty.
To learn more about CARE’s work on climate change, visit:
www.care-international.org

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