Model Step

#2…
Trip
Distribution
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 Trip Distribution

● After the trip generation stage, the analyst knows the

number of trip productions and trip attractions that each
zone will have.

● But the analyst does not know (at trip generation

stage)

● Where do the attractions at each zone come from and where do

the productions of each zone go?
● What are the zone-to-zone travel volumes?

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 Trip Distribution

● Trip distribution
procedures determine
where the trips produced
in each zone will go or
how they will be divided
among all other zones in
the study area.
● The output is a set of
tables (called “trip matrix”
or “O-D matrix”) that show
the travel flow between
each pair of zones.
Trips produced in Zone 2 are
distributed among other zones
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 Trip Distribution

● There are several methods of trip distribution

analysis:
● Growth Factor Method (Fratar method)
● Intervening Opportunity model, and
● Gravity Model
● Singly / Doubly Constrained Method
● Among these methods, the most widely used
trip distribution model is the gravity model.

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

● The gravity model gets its name from the fact

that it is conceptually based on Newton’s law of
gravity, which states that the attractive force
between any two bodies is directly related to
their masses and inversely related to the
distance between them.

M M
F=k 1 2

r 2

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 Trip Distribution
Gravity Model

● The application of this concept to trip distribution takes

the form P A
Tij = k i
c
j

Wij
● This equation states that the interchange volume
between a trip producing zone “i” and a trip attracting
zone “j” is directly proportional to the magnitude of the
trip productions of zone “i” and the trip attractions of
zone “j” and is inversely proportional to a function of the
impedance (usually the travel time between “i” and “j”)
Wij between the two zones.
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 Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
● It can be shown that the final form of the gravity model of trip
distribution is as follows:
Pi A j F ij K ij
T ij = n
 A j F ij K ij
j =1

Where, Tij = number of trips produced in zone i and attracted to zone j

Pi = number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = friction factor for interchange ij (usually based on travel time)
Kij = socioeconomic characteristics of zones
i = origin zone
j = destination zone
n = number of zones in the study area

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
EXAMPLE (Page 517)
 We need to distribute 602 work trip productions from
zone 3 to zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. the numbers of work
trip productions and attractions were determined in the
trip generation phase. Travel times and Fij values are
given.
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 Total

Trip production, Pi 0 102 602 715 397 1816

Trip attraction, Aj 1080 531 76 47 82 1816

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Travel Time (min) Friction Factor, Fij

j 1 2 3 4 5 Travel Time Fij

(min)
i
5 45
3 20 7 5 10 25 7 29
10 18
20 6
25 4
✓ Assume Kij values = 1

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
SOLUTION

P
i A j F ij K ij
T =
 Weknow: ij n
 A F K
j= 1 j ij ij

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 Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
 Similar calculations willshow that:

T32 = 350; T33 = 78; T34 = 19; T35 =8

T31 + T32 + T33 + T34 + T35 = 602 checked

 The result can be presented asfollows:

To Number of Work Trips

From 1 2 3 4 5 Total

3 147 350 78 19 8 602

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 Trip Distribution
Calibration of Gravity Model
▪ Gravity model is a logical way of distributing
the trips among various zones.
▪ We have already seen that the gravity model
can be used to determine the interzonal
trips among all the TAZs for a certain study
area.
▪ However, at first, the numbers of the
interzonal trips calculated by the gravity
model do not completely match (or equal)
with what were observed in the field.
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 Trip Distribution
Calibration of Gravity Model
▪ In most of the situations, after using the gravity model,
we find that while productions completely match with
the real zonal productions, the attractions of different
zones calculated by the gravity model do not match
with the real zonal attraction values (which were
estimated during the trip generation phase).
▪ To overcome this problem, we need to make some
adjustments to the gravity model so that the model can
reproduce the numbers for the existing situation (i.e.,
the model values = field values).
▪ This is called Calibration!

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 Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
EXAMPLE (Page 523)
 A three-zone city has the following trips produced and
attracted at its zones:

ZONE 1 2 3 TOTAL

Production 700 200 0 900

(Pi)

Attraction 0 400 500 900

(Aj)

Continue……

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
► The calibrated friction Travel Fij
factors and interzonal Time (min)
travel times are as
follows: 2 10
4 7
6 6
Distribute the trips 8 5
between the zones,
assuming Kij = 1. Travel Times (min)
Dest. 1 2 3
Origin
1 2 4 6
2 4 2 8
3 6 8 2
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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
SOLUTION
First iteration P A F K ij
We know: T = n
i j ij

 Aj Fij K ij
ij

j=1
(700)(0)(10
T1−1 = = 0 ; T1−2 = 338; T1−3 = 362
)
(0)(10)+(400)(7)
+(500)(6)
(200)(0)(7
T2−1 = = 0 ; T2−2 =123; T2−3 = 77
)
(0)(7)+(400)(10)
+(500)(5)
T3−1 = 0; T3−2 = 0; T3−3 = 0

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Trip Distribution
Gravity
Model
Zone-to-Zone trips: first iteration

Dest. 1 2 3 Total
Origin
1 0 338 362 700
2 0 123 77 200
3 0 0 0 0
Total 0 461 439 900
Computed Aj 0 461 439 900
Given Aj
06/06/2011 0 400NOT EQUAL
500 900
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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Therefore, further iterations are necessary using
adjusted zonal attraction values which can be
calculated as follows:

Ajk = [Aj .Aj ( K −1) ]/ C j (k −1)

Ajk = adjusted attraction for zone j, iteration k
Ajk = Aj whenk=1
Cjk = actual attraction for zone j, iteration k
Aj = desired attraction for zone j
j = attraction zone number, j = 1,2,3,…
k = iteration number, k = 1,2,3,….

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 Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Adjusted attractions for
▪ Zone 1: A1 = 0
▪ Zone 2: A2 = (400)(400)/461 = 347
▪ Zone 3: A3 = (500)(500)/439 = 569
(700)(0)(10)
T1−1 = = 0 ; T1−2 = 291; T1−3 = 409
(0)(10) + (347)(7) + (569)(6)

(200)(0)(7
T2−1 = = 0 ; T2−2 =110; T2−3 =90
)
(0)(7)+(347)(10)
+(569)(5)
T3−1 = 0 ; T3−2 = 0 ; T3−3 = 0

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
Zone-to-Zone trips: second iteration

Dest. 1 2 3 Total
Origin
1 0 291 409 700
2 0 110 90 200
3 0 0 0 0
Total 0 401 499 900
Computed Aj 0 401 499 900
Given Aj 0 400 500 900

06/06/2011 ALMOST EQUAL 21

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Trip Distribution
Gravity Model
▪ Further iterations are not necessary since the desired
productions and the zonal productions calculated by the
model are exactly same as well as the desired attractions
and the zonal attractions calculated by the model are
almost equal.

▪ Since these calculations are done by computer software,

we usually set an acceptable limit of error (e.g., 1%, 2%,
etc.) for the convergence to stop the calculations.

▪ The model becomes a calibrated model after the final

iteration.

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 GROWTH FACTOR MODEL

Growth Factor Models

• Trip distribution can also be computed when the only data available are the
origins and destinations between each zone for the current or base year and the
trip generation values for each zone for the future year.
• This method was widely used when O-D data were available but the gravity
model and calibrations for F factors had not yet become operational.
• Growth factor models are used primarily to distribute trips between zones in
the study area and zones in cities external to the study area.
• Since they rely upon an existing O-D matrix, they cannot be used to forecast
traffic between zones where no traffic currently exists.
• Further, the only measure of travel friction is the amount of current travel.
Thus, the growth factor method cannot reflect changes in travel time between
zones, as does the gravity model.

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 GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
The most popular growth factor model is the Fratar method,
which is a mathematical formula that proportions future trip
generation estimates to each zone as a function of the product
of the current trips between the two zones Tij and the growth
factor of the attracting zone Gj. Thus,

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 GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
A more general form of growth factor model than the Fratar method is the
average growth factor model. Rather than weighting the growth of trips between
zones i and j by the growth across all zones, as is done in the Fratar method, the
growth rate of trips between any zones i and j is simply the average of the growth
rates of these
zones.

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Discussion

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