Probability Distribution
Bernoulli Distribution
1. A fair coin is tossed. Let X be the random variable that takes the value 1 if heads occurs and 0
if tails occurs. What is the probability mass function of X?
Solution: P(X = 1) = p = 0.5, P(X = 0) = 1 - p = 0.5
2. In a Bernoulli trial with probability of success p = 0.7, what is the variance of the outcome?
Solution: Variance = p(1-p) = 0.7(1-0.7) = 0.21
3. A manufacturing process has a 5% defect rate. If we randomly select one item, what is the
probability of it being non-defective?
Solution: P(non-defective) = 1 - P(defective) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95
Binomial Distribution
4. A fair six-sided die is rolled 10 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 3 sixes?
Solution: P(X = 3) = C(10,3) * (1/6)^3 * (5/6)^7 ≈ 0.1550
5. In a batch of 20 light bulbs, each has an independent 10% chance of being defective. What is
the probability that exactly 2 bulbs are defective?
Solution: P(X = 2) = C(20,2) * (0.1)^2 * (0.9)^18 ≈ 0.2852
6. A basketball player has a 70% free throw success rate. If she attempts 8 free throws, what is the
probability she makes at least 6?
Solution: P(X ≥ 6) = P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) = C(8,6) * (0.7)^6 * (0.3)^2 + C(8,7) *
(0.7)^7 * (0.3)^1 + C(8,8) * (0.7)^8 ≈ 0.5583
Poisson Distribution
7. On average, a call center receives 12 calls per hour. What is the probability of receiving exactly
15 calls in the next hour?
Solution: P(X = 15) = (12^15 * e^(-12)) / 15! ≈ 0.0798
8. A radioactive source emits particles at an average rate of 5 per minute. What is the probability
of observing 3 or fewer particles in a one-minute period?
Solution: P(X ≤ 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = e^(-5) * (5^0/0! + 5^1/1! +
5^2/2! + 5^3/3!) ≈ 0.2650
9. Typos occur at an average rate of 2 per page in a long document. What is the probability of
finding more than 5 typos on a randomly selected page?
Solution: P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5) = 1 - (e^(-2) * (2^0/0! + 2^1/1! + 2^2/2! + 2^3/3! + 2^4/4!
+ 2^5/5!)) ≈ 0.0527
Uniform Distribution (Continuous)
10. A bus is scheduled to arrive at a stop every 15 minutes. If you arrive at the stop at a random
time, what is the probability you'll wait less than 5 minutes?
Solution: P(X < 5) = 5 / 15 = 1/3 ≈ 0.3333
11. The lifetime of a certain electronic component is uniformly distributed between 1000 and 1500
hours. What is the probability that a randomly selected component will last between 1200 and
1400 hours?
Solution: P(1200 < X < 1400) = (1400 - 1200) / (1500 - 1000) = 200 / 500 = 0.4
12. A random number is chosen from the interval [0, 10]. What is the probability that it's greater
than 7?
Solution: P(X > 7) = (10 - 7) / (10 - 0) = 3/10 = 0.3
Mixed Questions
13. A fair coin is tossed 100 times. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to
estimate the probability of getting exactly 55 heads.
Solution: λ = np = 100 * 0.5 = 50 P(X = 55) ≈ (50^55 * e^(-50)) / 55! ≈ 0.0505
14. In a large population, 20% of people have a certain genetic marker. If we randomly sample 15
people, what is the probability that at least 5 of them have the marker?
Solution: This follows a binomial distribution with n = 15, p = 0.2 P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X < 5) =
1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)] ≈ 1 - 0.8605 = 0.1395
15. A continuous uniform random variable X is distributed over the interval [a, b]. If P(X < 10) =
0.4 and P(X > 15) = 0.3, find the values of a and b.
Solution: Let's solve this step by step: 1) P(X < 10) = (10 - a) / (b - a) = 0.4 2) P(X > 15) = (b
- 15) / (b - a) = 0.3 3) From (2), we can say P(X < 15) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7 4) (15 - a) / (b - a) = 0.7
5) From (1) and (4): (10 - a) / (b - a) = 0.4 (15 - a) / (b - a) = 0.7 6) Solving these equations: 15
- a = 1.75(10 - a) 15 - a = 17.5 - 1.75a 0.75a = 2.5 a = 3.33 7) Substituting back: (10 - 3.33) / (b
- 3.33) = 0.4 6.67 = 0.4b - 1.332 8.002 = 0.4b b = 20 Therefore, a ≈ 3.33 and b = 20.
16. A group of 100 people take a test. The scores are normally distributed with a mean of
70 and a standard deviation of 15. The top 10% of scorers are offered a scholarship.
What is the minimum score needed to qualify for the scholarship?
Solution: Let X be the test score. We need to find x such that P(X > x) = 0.10. This is
equivalent to finding x where P(X ≤ x) = 0.90. For a standard normal Z, this means
P(Z ≤ z) = 0.90. From the standard normal table, z ≈ 1.28. Now we can convert back
to X: (x - μ)/σ = 1.28, so x = 70 + (1.28 * 15) = 89.2. Therefore, a minimum score of
about 89.2 is needed to qualify.
17. In a Poisson process, events occur at an average rate of 3 per hour. What is the
probability that exactly 5 events occur in a 2-hour period, given that at least 2 events
occur?
Solution: Let X be the number of events in 2 hours. X ~ Poisson(λ = 3 * 2 = 6). We
want P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2). P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2) = P(X = 5) / P(X ≥ 2) P(X = 5) = e^(-6) * 6^5
/ 5! ≈ 0.1606 P(X ≥ 2) = 1 - P(X < 2) = 1 - (e^(-6) * (6^0/0! + 6^1/1!)) ≈ 0.9826
Therefore, P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2) = 0.1606 / 0.9826 ≈ 0.1634 or about 16.34%.
18. A biased die has the following probabilities for each face: P(1) = 0.1, P(2) = 0.1, P(3)
= 0.2, P(4) = 0.2, P(5) = 0.2, P(6) = 0.2 The die is rolled repeatedly until the sum of
the rolls exceeds 10. What is the expected number of rolls?
Solution: Let X be the number of rolls needed. This is a negative binomial
distribution with r = 11 (we need to exceed 10) and p = P(success) = P(sum increases
by 11 or more in one roll) = 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.4. E[X] = r/p = 11/0.4 = 27.5 rolls.
19. In a population of 1000 people, 100 have a rare genetic marker. A test for this marker
has a sensitivity of 95% (true positive rate) and a specificity of 98% (true negative
rate). If a person tests positive, what is the probability they actually have the marker?
Solution: Let A be the event of having the marker, and B be the event of testing
positive. We want P(A|B), which we can find using Bayes' theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A)
* P(A) / [P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)] P(B|A) = 0.95 (sensitivity) P(A) =
100/1000 = 0.1 P(B|not A) = 1 - 0.98 = 0.02 (1 - specificity) P(not A) = 0.9 P(A|B) =
(0.95 * 0.1) / (0.95 * 0.1 + 0.02 * 0.9) ≈ 0.8407 Therefore, the probability is about
84.07%.
20. A fair six-sided die is rolled repeatedly. What is the expected number of rolls until all
six numbers have appeared at least once?
Solution: This is the coupon collector's problem. Let X be the number of rolls needed.
E[X] = n * (1/1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 + 1/6), where n = 6 (number of sides). E[X] = 6
* (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 + 1/6) ≈ 14.7 rolls.
