Joint Command and Staff College

Joint Command and Staff Course No:10

The Year 2023 / 2024 AD

TOPIC
“Advanced Technology and artificial intelligence and their
impact on military trends”

Student Officer Supervisor

Rank: Major Rank: Commander
Name: Maksim Kalashnikov Name: Qasim Hussain
 DEDICATION

Dedicated to my Wife & Children

 iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
In the name of ALLAH ALMIGHTY, the most Merciful and the most Beneficent. All the praises
be to ALLAH, The Creator of the whole Universe, who has conferred me with His countless
blessings and endowed me to complete my Research work successfully. May Peace and
blessings of ALLAH be upon His Prophet HAZRAT MUHAMMAD (SAWW). Special
appreciations to Qatar Armed Forces, my institution Joaan Bin Jassim Academy for Defense
Studies for providing me with this opportunity and congenial environment which helped me in
completing the research work in an amicable manner. Special thanks to my Joint Command and
Staff College supervisor, Commander Qasim Hussain. His invaluable help of constructive
comments and suggestions throughout the thesis work have contributed to the success of my
research. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, children and parents for always supporting me
and showing me guidance when times became difficult.
 v

ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: The fusion of advanced technology and artificial intelligence has reshaped
the landscape of military trends, offering military forces worldwide new tools, strategies, and
capabilities. Today, as we stand at the crossroads of the Information Age, advanced technology
and AI are redefining the military landscape in profound ways. Different forces across the globe
are endeavoring to incorporate AI into weapons and other defense systems that are used on
airborne, land, naval and space platforms to counter ever increasing threats. Whilst current
technological represents only the beginning of a promising future, it seems highly likely that this
technology will increase; be utilized in military operations, especially in Sub Conventional
Warfare (SCW). Despite the current marginal uses of automatic systems in combat at this
moment, there is an undeniable shift towards increasing autonomy which will soon challenge the
human role in modern warfare. In this backdrop, there is a need to dwell upon the potential
within AI that can be utilized in the SCW domain; it’s present use by various contemporary
armies and finally leading towards the future AI developments that can prove to be a game
changer in SCW. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to assess the current state of AI
technologies and their applicability in military operations, to analyze the potential advantages
and limitations of AI integration in conventional and sub-conventional warfare and finally to
provide recommendations for the responsible and effective integration of AI in military
operations. METHODOLOGY: Qualitative research methodology shall be applied to find
answers to the research questions. The research will be mostly based on secondary sources of
books, web based journals, International publication think tanks and magazines including
newspaper based AI articles. CONCLUSION: The integration of AI in the military domain
presents both opportunities and challenges that demand careful consideration of ethical
implications. While AI technologies offer enhanced capabilities in areas such as decision-
making, surveillance, and autonomous systems, it is crucial to prioritize ethical principles to
ensure responsible use and mitigate potential risks. Transparency, accountability, and fairness
must be central tenets guiding the development, deployment, and regulation of AI systems in
warfare. Collaboration among nations, robust data security measures, adherence to international
regulations, resilience against adversarial threats, and transparent communication with the public
are essential components of an ethical framework for military AI.
 vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: GENERAL FRAMEWORK …………………………………………………………... 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION ………………………….………………………….......... 1
1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW …………………..……………………………..... 3
1.3 RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT……………………,,……………. 3
1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES………………………………………………... 4
1.5 RESEARCH QUESTIONS…………………………………………………. 4
1.6 RESEARCH SCOPE……………………………………………………….... 4
1.7 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY……………………………………………. 5
1.8 LIMITATIONS……………………………………………………………… 5
1.9 SIGNIFICANCE AND CONTRIBUTION………………………………… 5
CHAPTER 2: HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF AI………………………….. 6
2.1 GENERAL…………………………………………………………………… 6
2.2 MACHINE INTELLIGENCE…………………………………………….…. 6
2.3 FIRST AI SUMMER (1956-1975) ……………………………………...…… 6
2.4 FIRST AI WINTER (1974-1980)…………………………………………….. 8
2.5 SECOND AI SUMMER (1980-1987) ……………………………………….. 9
2.6 SECOND AI WINTER (1987-1993)................................................................. 10
2.7 THIRD AI SUMMER (1993- TILL DATE)…………………………………. 11
2.8 TIERS OF AI…………………………………………………………………. 12
2.8.1 ARTIFICIAL NARROW INTELLIGENCE (ANI)……………………. 12
2.8.2 ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE…………………………... 13
2.8.3 ARTIFICIAL SUPER INTELLIGENCE………………………………. 14
2.9 PREVAILING AI ENVIRONMENT…………………………………………. 15
2.10 ANALYSIS………………………………………………………………….. 16
 vii

CHAPTER 3: AI TRENDS IN CONTEMPORARY MILITARIES AND ITS

USE IN MILITARY APPLICATIONS……………………………………………. 17
3.1 GENERAL……………………………………………………………………. 17
3.2 USA…………………………………………………………………………… 17
3.2.1 SCALING AI'S IMPACT ……………………………………………… 18
3.2.2 INVESTING IN AI RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT …............... 18
3.2.3 DELIVERING AI-ENABLED CAPABILITIES ………………………. 18
3.2.4 CULTIVATING AI TALENT AND PARTNERSHIPS …….................. 18
3.3 CHINA………………………………………………………........................... 18
3.4 RUSSIA………………………………………………………………………. 19
3.5 ISRAEL……………………………………………………………………….. 19
3.6 INDIA…………………………………………………………………………. 19
3.7 USE OF AI IN MILITARY APPLICATIONS……………………………….. 19
3.7.1 MOBILITY……………………………………………………………… 19
3.7.2 TARGET ACQUISITION AND ENGAGEMENT…………………….. 20
3.7.3 INTELLIGENCE/ SURVEILLANCE………………………………….. 23
3.8 ANALYSIS…………………………………………………………………… 24

CHAPTER 4: ROLE OF AI IN PRESENT SCW ENVIRONMENT AND ITS

INTEGRATION IN OPERATIONAL TRAINING MODULES ………………… 26

4.1 PRESENT USE OF AI IN MILITARY DOMAIN ……………..................... 26

4.1.1 COMMAND AND CONTROL………………………………………... 26
4.1.2 MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATION.............................................. 26
4.1.3 INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISSANCE (ISR).. 27
4.1.4 PREDICTIVE AI IN COUNTER TERRORISM (CT) OPERATIONS.. 27
4.1.5 INFORMATION OPERATIONS (IOS) AND “DEEP FAKES”………. 28
4.1.6 AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS AND WEAPONS TARGETS ………... 28
4.1.7 CONVOY ACTIVE SAFETY TECHNOLOGY (CAST)…………….. 29
 4.1.8 BOMB - DISPOSAL ROBOTS ………………………………………. 29
4.1.9 UNDER GROUND VEHICLES (UGVS……………………………… 29
4.1.10 CYBER SPHERE…………………………………………………...… 30
4.1.11 UAVS…………………………………………………………………. 30
4.1.12 BATTLE FIELD HEALTH CARE…………………………………… 30
4.2 INTEGRATION OF AI IN MILITARIES TRAINING MODULES……....... 30
4.2.1 SIMULATION AND VIRTUAL REALITY (VR)…………………….. 31
4.2.2 ADAPTIVE LEARNING SYSTEMS………………………………….. 31
4.2.3 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS…………………………………….. 32
4.2.4 AI-GENERATED OPPOSING FORCES (OPFOR)…………………... 32
4.2.5 DATA ANALYSIS AND AFTER-ACTION REVIEWS……………… 32
4.2.6 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND DRONES FOR TRAINING…….. 33
4.2.7 LANGUAGE PROCESSING AND COMMUNICATION TRAINING. 33
4.3 ANALYSIS……………………………………………………………………. 33
CHAPTER 5: ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS……………………….. 35
5.1 ANALYSIS…………………………………………………………………… 35
5.1.1 AI SCOPE AND MILITARY UTILITY……………………………… 35
5.1.2 ESCALATION RISKS CAUSED BY USE OF 36
AI……………………
5.1.3 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS……………………………………… 38
5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS …………………………………………………….. 39
5.2.1 COUNTERING ESCALATION RISKS CAUSED BY USE OF 39
AI….
5.2.2 MEASURES TO ADDRESS ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
CAUSED BY MILITARY USE OF AI……………………………………… 41
5.3 CONCLUSION…………………………………………………….................. 43
44
BIBLOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
viii