Addis Ababa Science and Technology University

College of Natural and Applied Sciences

Department of Physics and Statistics

Worksheet-ch5-9

1. Explain the following to your friend

o Sample space: The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes of that experiment. It is usually denoted by S or Ω.
o Outcome: An outcome is a single, specific result of an experiment. It is an
element of the sample space.
o Event: An event is a subset of the sample space. It is a collection of one or more
outcomes.
o Mutually exclusive event: Two events are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) if they
cannot occur at the same time. Their intersection is an empty set. For events A
and B, A∩B=∅.
o Independent event: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. Mathematically, for
events A and B, P(A∩B) =P(A)P(B), or equivalently, P(A∣B)=P(A) and P(B∣A)
=P(B).
2. A box contains three marbles - one red, one green, and one blue. Consider an
experiment that consists of taking one marble from the box, then replacing it in the
box and drawing a second marble from the box. Describe the sample space. Repeat
for the case in which the second marble is drawn without first replacing the first
marble.
o Case 1: With replacement Let R, G, B denote the red, green, and blue marbles,
respectively. Since the first marble is replaced, the possible outcomes for the
second draw are independent of the first. The sample space S1 is the set of all
ordered pairs (M1,M2) where M1 is the color of the first marble drawn and M2 is
the color of the second marble drawn. S1
={(R,R),(R,G),(R,B),(G,R),(G,G),(G,B),(B,R),(B,G),(B,B)}
o Case 2: Without replacement After the first marble is drawn, it is not replaced,
meaning there are only two marbles left for the second draw. The sample space
S2 is the set of all ordered pairs (M1,M2) where M1 is the color of the first
marble drawn and M2 is the color of the second marble drawn, with M1 =M2.
S2={(R,G),(R,B),(G,R),(G,B),(B,R),(B,G)}
3. An experiment consists of tossing a coin three times. What is the sample space of
this experiment? Which event corresponds to the experiment resulting in more
heads than tails?
o Sample space: Let H denote Heads and T denote Tails. The outcomes are ordered
sequences of three tosses.
S={(HHH),(HHT),(HTH),(THH),(HTT),(THT),(TTH),(TTT)}
 o Event: More heads than tails: We need to identify outcomes where the number
of H's is greater than the number of T's.
▪ HHH: 3 Heads, 0 Tails (More heads)
▪ HHT: 2 Heads, 1 Tail (More heads)
▪ HTH: 2 Heads, 1 Tail (More heads)
▪ THH: 2 Heads, 1 Tail (More heads)
▪ HTT: 1 Head, 2 Tails (More tails)
▪ THT: 1 Head, 2 Tails (More tails)
▪ TTH: 1 Head, 2 Tails (More tails)
▪ TTT: 0 Heads, 3 Tails (More tails) The event Emore heads
={(HHH),(HHT),(HTH),(THH)}
4. Two dice are thrown. Let E be the event that the sum of the dice is odd, let F be the
event that the first die lands on 1, and let G be the event that the sum is 7. Describe
the events EF, E U F, FG, EFc EFG.

First, let's list the sample space of two dice throws. Each outcome is an ordered pair (d1
,d2) where d1 is the result of the first die and d2 is the result of the second die. There are
6×6=36 possible outcomes.

o Event E: The sum of the dice is odd. The sum is odd if one die is odd and the
other is even.
E={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,2),(5,4),(5
,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)}
o Event F: The first die lands on 1. F={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)}
o Event G: The sum is 7. G={(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}

Now let's describe the combined events:

o EF (E and F): The intersection of E and F. The sum is odd AND the first die is 1.
EF=E∩F={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6)}
o E U F (E or F): The union of E and F. The sum is odd OR the first die is 1.
E∪F=E+F−(E∩F)
E∪F={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3)
,(4,5),(5,2),(5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)}
o FG (F and G): The intersection of F and G. The first die is 1 AND the sum is 7.
FG=F∩G={(1,6)}
o EFc (E and not F): The intersection of E and the complement of F. The sum is
odd AND the first die is NOT 1. First, find Fc (complement of F): The first die is
NOT 1. Fc={(d1,d2)∣d1∈{2,3,4,5,6},d2∈{1,2,3,4,5,6}}
EFc=E∩Fc={(2,1),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,2),(5,4),(5,6),(6,
1),(6,3),(6,5)}
o EFG (E and F and G): The intersection of E, F, and G. The sum is odd AND the
first die is 1 AND the sum is 7. From EF={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6)}. Now intersect with
G. EFG=(E∩F)∩G={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6)}∩{(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
EFG={(1,6)}
5. A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An exam is given and
the students are ranked according to their performance. Assuming that no two
students obtain the same score,
o a) how many different rankings are possible? There are a total of 6+4=10
students. Since no two students obtain the same score, every permutation of these
10 students represents a unique ranking. The number of different rankings is the
number of permutations of 10 distinct items. Number of rankings =
10!=10×9×8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1=3,628,800
o b) If all rankings are considered equally likely, what is the probability that
women receive the top 4 scores? For women to receive the top 4 scores, the first
4 positions in the ranking must be occupied by the 4 women. The number of ways
to arrange the 4 women in the top 4 positions is 4!. The number of ways to
arrange the remaining 6 men in the remaining 6 positions is 6!. Number of
favorable rankings = (ways to arrange 4 women in top 4 positions) × (ways to
arrange 6 men in remaining 6 positions) Number of favorable rankings =
4!×6!=(4×3×2×1)×(6×5×4×3×2×1) =24×720=17,280

The total number of possible rankings is 10! (from part a). Probability that women
receive the top 4 scores = (Number of favorable rankings) / (Total number of
rankings) P(women get top 4 scores)=10!4!×6!=3,628,80017,280=2101 (This can
also be simplified as 10×9×8×7×6!4!×6!=10×9×8×74!=504024=2101)

6. A system is composed of four components, each of which is either working or failed.

Consider an experiment that consists of observing the status of each component, and
let the outcome of the experiment be given by the vector (x1,x2,x3,x4) where Xi is
equal to 1 if component i is working and is equal to 0 if component i is failed.
o a) How many outcomes are in the sample space of this experiment? Each of
the 4 components can be in 2 states (working or failed). Since there are 4
components, the total number of possible outcomes is 24. Number of outcomes =
2×2×2×2=16
o b) Suppose that the system will work if components 1 and 2 are both
working, or if components 3 and 4 are both working. Specify all the outcomes
in the event that the system works. Let A be the event that components 1 and 2
are both working (x1=1,x2=1). Let B be the event that components 3 and 4 are
both working (x3=1,x4=1). The system works if A or B (or both) occur. We are
looking for the outcomes in A∪B.

Outcomes where components 1 and 2 are both working (x1=1,x2=1):

(1,1,0,0),(1,1,0,1),(1,1,1,0),(1,1,1,1)

Outcomes where components 3 and 4 are both working (x3=1,x4=1):

(0,0,1,1),(0,1,1,1),(1,0,1,1),(1,1,1,1)

The event that the system works is the union of these two sets: System works
outcomes = {(1,1,0,0),(1,1,0,1),(1,1,1,0),(1,1,1,1),(0,0,1,1),(0,1,1,1),(1,0,1,1)}
(Note: (1,1,1,1) is common to both and is listed only once.)
 o c) Let E be the event that components 1 and 3 are both failed. How many
outcomes are contained in event E? If components 1 and 3 are both failed, then
x1=0 and x3=0. The states of components 2 (x2) and 4 (x4) can be either 0 or 1.
Possible outcomes for x2: 0, 1 (2 options) Possible outcomes for x4: 0, 1 (2
options) The outcomes in event E are of the form (0,x2,0,x4). Number of
outcomes in E = 1×2×1×2=4 The outcomes are:
(0,0,0,0),(0,0,0,1),(0,1,0,0),(0,1,0,1)
7. A group of 5 boys and 10 girls is lined up in random order that is, each of the 15!
permutations is assumed to be equally likely.

There are a total of 5+10=15 people. The total number of permutations is 15!.

o a) What is the probability that the person in the 4th position is a boy? To
calculate this, imagine fixing a boy in the 4th position. Number of choices for the
4th position: 5 (any of the 5 boys). Number of ways to arrange the remaining 14
people in the remaining 14 positions: 14!. Number of favorable permutations =
5×14! Probability =
Total number of permutationsNumber of favorable permutations=15!5×14!
=15×14!5×14!=155=31
o b) What about the person in the 12th position? This is analogous to part (a).
The specific position doesn't change the probability, assuming random order.
Number of choices for the 12th position: 5 (any of the 5 boys). Number of ways
to arrange the remaining 14 people in the remaining 14 positions: 14!. Probability
= 15!5×14!=155=31
o c) What is the probability that a particular boy is in the 3rd position? Let's
pick a specific boy, say Boy A. Number of choices for the 3rd position: 1 (Boy
A). Number of ways to arrange the remaining 14 people in the remaining 14
positions: 14!. Number of favorable permutations = 1×14! Probability = 15!1×14!
=151
8. A committee of size 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the
selection is made randomly, what is the probability that the committee consists of 3
men and 2 women?

Total number of people = 6 men+9 women=15 people. Committee size = 5.

o Total number of ways to select a committee of 5 from 15 people: This is a

combination problem, as the order of selection doesn't matter. Total combinations
= C(15,5)=(515)=5!(15−5)!15!=5!10!15!=5×4×3×2×115×14×13×12×11
=3×7×13×11=3003
o Number of ways to select a committee with 3 men and 2 women: Number of
ways to choose 3 men from 6 = C(6,3)=(36)=3!3!6!=3×2×16×5×4=20 Number of
ways to choose 2 women from 9 = C(9,2)=(29)=2!7!9!=2×19×8=36 Number of
favorable committees = C(6,3)×C(9,2)=20×36=720
o Probability:
P(3 men and 2 women)=Total number of committeesNumber of favorable commit
 tees=3003720 To simplify, divide both by their greatest common divisor (which
is 9): P(3 men and 2 women)=3003÷9720÷9=33380
9. Fifty-two percent of the students at a certain college are females. Five percent of the
students in this college are majoring in computer science. Two percent of the
students are women majoring in computer science. If a student is selected at
random, find the conditional probability that

Let F be the event that the student is female. Let C be the event that the student is
majoring in computer science.

Given probabilities: P(F)=0.52 P(C)=0.05 P(F∩C)=0.02 (women majoring in computer

science)

o a) this student is female, given that the student is majoring in computer

science; We need to find P(F∣C). Using the formula for conditional probability:
P(F∣C)=P(C)P(F∩C) P(F∣C)=0.050.02=52=0.4
o b) this student is majoring in computer science, given that the student is
female. We need to find P(C∣F). Using the formula for conditional probability:
P(C∣F)=P(F)P(F∩C) P(C∣F)=0.520.02=522=261≈0.0385
10. A total of 500 married working couples were polled about their annual salaries, with
the following information resulting.

Table of salaries:

| Wife | Husband < $25,000 | Husband > $25,000 | Total (Husband) | | :--------- | :-----------
------ | :----------------- | :-------------- | | < $25,000 | 212 | 198 | 410 | | > $25,000 | 36 | 54 |
90 | | Total (Wife) | 248 | 252 | 500 |

Let H<25 be the event that the husband earns less than $25,000. Let H>25 be the event
that the husband earns more than $25,000. Let W<25 be the event that the wife earns less
than $25,000. Let W>25 be the event that the wife earns more than $25,000.

o a) The probability that the husband earns less than $25,000; Total couples =
500. Number of couples where husband earns < $25,000 = 212 + 36 = 248.
P(H<25)=Total couplesNumber of H<25 couples=500248=12562=0.496
o b) The probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that the
husband earns more than this amount; We need to find P(W>25 | H>25).
Number of couples where husband earns > $25,000 = 198 + 54 = 252. (This is the
new sample space for the conditional probability). Among these 252 couples, the
number where the wife earns > $25,000 is 54.
P(W>25 | H>25)=Number of H>25Number of (W>25 and H>25)=25254 To
simplify 25254: Divide by 2: 12627 Divide by 9: 143 So, P(W>25 | H>25)=143
≈0.2143
o c) The conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given
that the husband earns less than this amount? We need to find
P(W>25 | H<25). Number of couples where husband earns < $25,000 = 212 + 36
 = 248. (This is the new sample space). Among these 248 couples, the number
where the wife earns > $25,000 is 36.
P(W>25 | H<25)=Number of H<25Number of (W>25 and H<25)=24836 To
simplify 24836: Divide by 4: 629 So, P(W>25 | H<25)=629≈0.1452
11. A man is known to speak the truth in 2 out of 3 times. He throws a balanced die and
reported that the result is five. What is the probability that it was actually five?

Let T be the event that the man speaks the truth. P(T)=32. Let F be the event that the man
lies. P(F)=1−P(T)=1−32=31.

Let R5 be the event that the man reported the result is five. Let A5 be the event that the
actual result on the die is five. Let not A5 be the event that the actual result on the die is
not five.

For a balanced die, the probability of rolling a five is P(A5)=61. The probability of not
rolling a five is P(not A5)=1−61=65.

We want to find P(A5∣R5). Using Bayes' Theorem: P(A5∣R5)=P(R5)P(R5∣A5)P(A5)

First, let's find P(R5∣A5): This means the die was actually five, and the man reported
five. This happens if he tells the truth. P(R5∣A5)=P(T)=32.

Next, let's find P(R5∣not A5): This means the die was not five, but the man reported five.
This happens if he lies. If he lies when the die is not five, he reports one of the other 5
numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 6). Assuming he randomly picks a false number, the probability he
reports "five" is 51. So,
P(R5∣not A5)=P(F)×(probability of reporting 5 given he lies and it’s not 5)=31×51=151.

Now, find P(R5) using the law of total probability:

P(R5)=P(R5∣A5)P(A5)+P(R5∣not A5)P(not A5) P(R5)=(32)(61)+(151)(65) P(R5)=182
+905=91+181=182+181=183=61

Finally, calculate P(A5∣R5): P(A5∣R5)=P(R5)P(R5∣A5)P(A5)=61(32)(61) P(A5∣R5)=61

182=91×6=96=32

The probability that it was actually five is 32.

12. Let f be a function defined as: f(x)={6x(1−x)for x in[0,1]0otherwise

o i. Is f probability density function? For a function to be a probability density
function (PDF), two conditions must be met:
1. f(x)≥0 for all x.
2. ∫−∞∞f(x)dx=1.

Let's check condition 1: For x∈[0,1], x≥0 and (1−x)≥0. Therefore, 6x(1−x)≥0. For
x outside [0,1], f(x)=0, which is ≥0. So, condition 1 is satisfied.
 Let's check condition 2: ∫−∞∞f(x)dx=∫016x(1−x)dx =∫01(6x−6x2)dx
=[3x2−2x3]01 =(3(1)2−2(1)3)−(3(0)2−2(0)3) =(3−2)−0=1 So, condition 2 is
satisfied.

Since both conditions are met, yes, f(x) is a probability density function.

o ii. If your answer to I is yes, find P(1/2<X<2/3) P(1/2<X<2/3)=∫1/22/3

6x(1−x)dx =∫1/22/3(6x−6x2)dx =[3x2−2x3]1/22/3
=(3(2/3)2−2(2/3)3)−(3(1/2)2−2(1/2)3) =(3(4/9)−2(8/27))−(3(1/4)−2(1/8))
=(4/3−16/27)−(3/4−1/4) =(2736−16)−(42) =2720−21 To combine, find a common
denominator (54): =5420×2−541×27=5440−5427=5413 So, P(1/2<X<2/3)=5413.
13. Let f be a function defined as: f(x)={3x2for x in[0,1]0otherwise

First, verify if it's a PDF.

1. f(x)=3x2≥0 for x∈[0,1]. (True)

2. ∫013x2dx=[x3]01=13−03=1. (True) It is a valid PDF.
o i. Find the value of a such that P(X>a)=P(X<a) If P(X>a)=P(X<a), then since
the total probability is 1, we must have: P(X<a)+P(X=a)+P(X>a)=1. For
continuous distributions, P(X=a)=0. So, P(X<a)+P(X>a)=1. If P(X>a)=P(X<a),
then 2P(X<a)=1, which means P(X<a)=0.5. We need to find 'a' such that ∫0a

3x2dx=0.5. [x3]0a=0.5 a3−03=0.5 a3=0.5=21 a=321 =32 1 a≈0.7937

o ii. Find the value of b such that P(X>b)=0.05 If P(X>b)=0.05, then
P(X<b)=1−P(X>b)=1−0.05=0.95. We need to find 'b' such that ∫0b3x2dx=0.95.

[x3]0b=0.95 b3−03=0.95 b3=0.95 b=30.95 b≈0.9830

14. Let f be a function defined as: f(x)={101e10−x0for x>0]otherwise Find P(X>E(X))

This is an exponential distribution with parameter λ=101 (since f(x)=λe−λx). For an

exponential distribution, the expected value (mean) is E(X)=λ1. E(X)=1/101=10.

Now we need to find P(X>E(X)), which is P(X>10). P(X>10)=∫10∞101e10−xdx Let

u=−10x, so du=−101dx, which means dx=−10du. When x=10, u=−1. When x=∞, u=−∞.
The integral becomes: ∫−1−∞101eu(−10du)=−∫−1−∞eudu=∫−∞−1eudu =[eu]−∞−1
=e−1−limu→−∞eu=e−1−0=e−1 So, P(X>E(X))=e−1≈0.3679.

Alternatively, for an exponential distribution, P(X>x)=e−λx. Here, x=E(X)=10 and

λ=101. P(X>10)=e−(101)(10)=e−1.

15. The annual rainfall (in inches) in a certain region is normally distributed with μ=40,
σ=4. What is the probability that in 2 of the next 4 years the rainfall will exceed 50
inches? Assume that the rainfalls in different years are independent.
 Let R be the annual rainfall. R∼N(μ=40,σ=4). First, find the probability that the rainfall
in a single year will exceed 50 inches. P(R>50)=P(Z>σ50−μ) P(R>50)=P(Z>450−40
)=P(Z>410)=P(Z>2.5)

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator,

P(Z>2.5)=1−P(Z≤2.5)=1−0.9938=0.0062. Let p=0.0062 be the probability that rainfall
exceeds 50 inches in a given year.

Now, we are interested in the probability that in 2 of the next 4 years the rainfall will
exceed 50 inches. This is a binomial probability problem, where: n=4 (number of
trials/years) k=2 (number of successes/years with rainfall > 50 inches) p=0.0062
(probability of success in a single trial) The binomial probability formula is P(X=k)=(kn
)pk(1−p)n−k.

P(X=2)=(24)(0.0062)2(1−0.0062)4−2 P(X=2)=2!2!4!(0.0062)2(0.9938)2
P(X=2)=6×(0.00003844)×(0.98763844) P(X=2)≈6×3.844×10−5×0.9876
P(X=2)≈0.000227

16. If each voter is for Proposition A with probability .7, what is the probability that
exactly 7 of 10 voters are for this proposition?

This is a binomial probability problem. n=10 (total number of voters) k=7 (number of
voters for Proposition A) p=0.7 (probability that a single voter is for Proposition A)
1−p=1−0.7=0.3 (probability that a single voter is not for Proposition A)

Using the binomial probability formula P(X=k)=(kn)pk(1−p)n−k: P(X=7)=(710

)(0.7)7(0.3)10−7 P(X=7)=(710)(0.7)7(0.3)3

Calculate (710)=(10−710)=(310)=3×2×110×9×8=10×3×4=120. (0.7)7≈0.0823543

(0.3)3=0.027

P(X=7)=120×0.0823543×0.027 P(X=7)≈0.2668

17. Suppose that the average number of accidents occurring weekly on a particular
stretch of a highway equals 3. Calculate the probability that there is at least one
accident this week.

This is a Poisson distribution problem, as it deals with the number of events (accidents)
occurring in a fixed interval of time (weekly) at a given average rate. The average
number of accidents, λ=3 per week. The Poisson probability mass function is
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk.

We want to find the probability of at least one accident this week, i.e., P(X≥1). It's easier
to calculate P(X≥1) as 1−P(X=0). P(X=0)=0!e−330=1e−3×1=e−3

e−3≈0.049787 P(X≥1)=1−e−3=1−0.049787=0.950213
18. It is known that bacteria of a certain kind occur in water at a rate 2 bacteria per
cubic centimeter of water. Assuming that the phenomenon obeys a Poisson
probability law, what is the probability that a sample of two cube centimeters of
water will contain

The rate of bacteria is 2 bacteria per cubic centimeter. We are considering a sample of
two cubic centimeters. So, the average number of bacteria in a 2 cm$^3$ sample,
λ=2 bacteria/cm3×2 cm3=4 bacteria. This is a Poisson distribution with λ=4.

o a. No bacteria? We need to find P(X=0). P(X=0)=0!e−λλ0=0!e−440=e−4

e−4≈0.018316
o b. At least one bacteria? We need to find P(X≥1). P(X≥1)=1−P(X=0)
P(X≥1)=1−e−4=1−0.018316=0.981684
19. Every student in a certain program of studies takes all three of courses A, B, and C.
The average enrollment in the program is 50 students. Past history shows that on
the average 10 students receive marks of at least 75% in one or more of these
classes. A sponsor gives a scholarship of $500 to anyone who receives a mark of at
least 75% in all three courses. What can the sponsor expect to pay on average?

This problem seems to be missing information required to directly calculate the expected
payment. The problem states that "on the average 10 students receive marks of at least
75% in one or more of these classes". However, the scholarship is awarded to students
who achieve at least 75% in all three courses. Without knowing the probability or
average number of students who achieve marks of at least 75% in all three courses, we
cannot determine the expected payment.

If we assume (which is not stated in the problem and would be an inference) that the "10
students who receive marks of at least 75% in one or more classes" is somehow related to
the number of students getting 75% in all three classes, it would be an unjustified leap.

Therefore, based on the provided information, we cannot calculate the expected

payment. We need the average number of students (or probability) who achieve at least
75% in ALL three courses.

Self-correction: If the problem implicitly means that on average 10 students get at least
75% in each of the classes independently and we are to infer a proportion, that's not
clearly stated. If the "10 students receive marks of at least 75% in one or more of these
classes" meant the intersection (all three), then the answer would be
10 students×$500/student=$5000. But "one or more" implies the union.

Conclusion: The problem is under-specified. We need the average number of students

who receive a mark of at least 75% in all three courses.

20. If the average number of claims handled daily by an insurance company is 5, what
proportion of days have less than 3 claims? What is the probability that there will
 be 4 claims in exactly 3 of the next 5 days? Assume that the number of claims on
different days is independent.

This involves two parts, both using the Poisson distribution for the number of claims
daily, and then a binomial distribution for the "days" part.

Part 1: Proportion of days with less than 3 claims Let X be the number of claims on a
given day. X∼Poisson(λ=5). We need to find P(X<3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2).
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk

P(X=0)=0!e−550=e−5≈0.006738 P(X=1)=1!e−551=5e−5≈5×0.006738=0.03369
P(X=2)=2!e−552=225e−5≈12.5×0.006738=0.084225

P(X<3)=0.006738+0.03369+0.084225=0.124653 So, approximately 12.47% of days have

less than 3 claims.

Part 2: Probability that there will be 4 claims in exactly 3 of the next 5 days First,
find the probability of a single day having exactly 4 claims (P(X=4)). P(X=4)=4!e−554
=24e−5×625 P(X=4)=24625×0.006738≈244.21125≈0.17546875 Let
p′=P(X=4)≈0.17546875.

Now, we are looking at the next 5 days. This is a binomial experiment: n=5 (number of
days) k=3 (number of days with 4 claims) p′≈0.17546875 (probability of success - 4
claims - on a single day) 1−p′≈1−0.17546875=0.82453125

P(exactly 3 days with 4 claims)=(35)(p′)3(1−p′)5−3 =(35)(0.17546875)3(0.82453125)2

(35)=3!2!5!=2×15×4=10. (0.17546875)3≈0.005396 (0.82453125)2≈0.67985

P(exactly 3 days with 4 claims)≈10×0.005396×0.67985

P(exactly 3 days with 4 claims)≈0.03668

21. It is known that disks produced by a certain company will be defective with
probability .01 independently of each other. The company sells the disks in packages
of 10 and offers a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10 disks is defective.
What proportion of packages is returned? If someone buys three packages, what is
the probability that exactly one of them will be returned?

Let p=0.01 be the probability that a single disk is defective. Let n=10 be the number of
disks in a package. Let X be the number of defective disks in a package.
X∼Binomial(n=10,p=0.01).

Part 1: What proportion of packages is returned? A package is returned if more than

1 disk is defective (i.e., at least 2 disks are defective).
P(package returned)=P(X>1)=1−[P(X=0)+P(X=1)]
 P(X=0)=(010)(0.01)0(0.99)10=1×1×(0.99)10≈0.90438 P(X=1)=(110
)(0.01)1(0.99)9=10×0.01×(0.99)9=0.1×(0.99)9≈0.1×0.91351≈0.09135

P(X≤1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)≈0.90438+0.09135=0.99573
P(package returned)=1−P(X≤1)≈1−0.99573=0.00427 So, approximately 0.427% of
packages are returned.

Part 2: If someone buys three packages, what is the probability that exactly one of
them will be returned? This is another binomial problem. Let Y be the number of
returned packages. N=3 (total packages bought) K=1 (exactly one returned package)
Preturn=P(package returned)≈0.00427 (from Part 1)

P(Y=1)=(13)(Preturn)1(1−Preturn)3−1 P(Y=1)=3×(0.00427)×(1−0.00427)2
P(Y=1)=3×0.00427×(0.99573)2 P(Y=1)≈3×0.00427×0.99147
P(Y=1)≈0.01281×0.99147≈0.01269

So, the probability that exactly one of the three packages will be returned is
approximately 0.01269.

22. Women's shoes are manufactured in sizes 2, 3, 4, ..., 8. Size 5 is suitable for a foot of
length ranging from 9.25 inches to 9.5 inches. If length of women's foot is normally
distributed with mean 9.4 inches and standard deviation 0.25 inches, how many
pairs of size 5 are required out of every 10,000 pairs manufactured?

Let L be the length of a woman's foot. L∼N(μ=9.4,σ=0.25). Size 5 is suitable for lengths
between 9.25 and 9.5 inches. We need to find P(9.25<L<9.5).

First, convert these values to Z-scores: For L=9.25: Z1=0.259.25−9.4=0.25−0.15=−0.6

For L=9.5: Z2=0.259.5−9.4=0.250.1=0.4

So, we need to find P(−0.6<Z<0.4). P(−0.6<Z<0.4)=P(Z<0.4)−P(Z<−0.6)

Using a standard normal distribution table: P(Z<0.4)≈0.6554

P(Z<−0.6)=1−P(Z<0.6)≈1−0.7257=0.2743

P(9.25<L<9.5)=0.6554−0.2743=0.3811

This is the proportion of women who would fit size 5. Out of every 10,000 pairs
manufactured, the number of pairs required for size 5 would be: Number of pairs =
0.3811×10,000=3811 pairs.

23. A population has mean 128 and standard deviation 22.

Population mean μ=128. Population standard deviation σ=22.

 o a) Find the mean and standard deviation for means of all samples of size 36.
This refers to the sampling distribution of the sample mean (Xˉ). Sample size
n=36.

Mean of the sample means: E(Xˉ)=μ=128. Standard deviation of the sample

means (standard error): σXˉ=n σ σXˉ=36 22=622=311≈3.6667

o b) Find the probability that the mean of a sample of size 36 will be within 10
units of the population mean, that is, between 118 and 138. We need to find
P(118<Xˉ<138). Since the sample size n=36 is large (typically n≥30), by the
Central Limit Theorem, the sampling distribution of the sample mean Xˉ can be
approximated by a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the population
distribution. So, Xˉ∼N(μXˉ=128,σXˉ=11/3).

Convert the values to Z-scores: For Xˉ=118: Z1=11/3118−128=11/3−10=11−30

≈−2.727 For Xˉ=138: Z2=11/3138−128=11/310=1130≈2.727

We need to find P(−2.727<Z<2.727).

P(−2.727<Z<2.727)=P(Z<2.727)−P(Z<−2.727) Using a Z-table,
P(Z<2.73)≈0.9968 P(Z<−2.73)=1−P(Z<2.73)≈1−0.9968=0.0032

P(118<Xˉ<138)≈0.9968−0.0032=0.9936

24. Suppose the mean length of time that a caller is placed on hold when telephoning a
customer service center is 23.8 seconds, with standard deviation 4.6 seconds. Find
the probability that the mean length of time on hold in a sample of 1,200 calls will be
within 0.5 second of the population mean.

Population mean μ=23.8 seconds. Population standard deviation σ=4.6 seconds. Sample
size n=1200 calls.

We need to find the probability that the sample mean Xˉ is within 0.5 seconds of the
population mean. This means: 23.8−0.5<Xˉ<23.8+0.5 23.3<Xˉ<24.3

First, calculate the mean and standard deviation of the sample means: E(Xˉ)=μ=23.8 σXˉ

=n σ=1200 4.6 σXˉ=34.6414.6≈0.13279

Since n=1200 is a large sample, by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of Xˉ is
approximately normal. Now, convert the values to Z-scores: For Xˉ=23.3: Z1
=0.1327923.3−23.8=0.13279−0.5≈−3.765 For Xˉ=24.3: Z2=0.1327924.3−23.8
=0.132790.5≈3.765
 We need to find P(−3.765<Z<3.765). P(−3.765<Z<3.765)=P(Z<3.765)−P(Z<−3.765)
Using a Z-table or calculator, P(Z<3.765)≈0.99992
P(Z<−3.765)=1−P(Z<3.765)≈1−0.99992=0.00008

P(23.3<Xˉ<24.3)≈0.99992−0.00008=0.99984 The probability that the mean length of

time on hold will be within 0.5 seconds of the population mean is approximately 0.99984.

25. Of a large group of men, 5% are less than 60 inches in height and 40% are between
60 & 65 inches. Assuming a normal distribution, find the mean and standard
deviation of heights.

Let H be the height of men. H∼N(μ,σ).

Given information:

1. P(H<60)=0.05
2. P(60<H<65)=0.40

From (1), convert to Z-score: P(Z<σ60−μ)=0.05. Looking up 0.05 in the Z-table (or 1-
0.05 = 0.95 and finding -Z value), the Z-score for 0.05 is approximately -1.645. So,
σ60−μ=−1.645 (Equation 1) 60−μ=−1.645σ⇒μ=60+1.645σ

From (2), we know P(H<65)=P(H<60)+P(60<H<65)=0.05+0.40=0.45. Convert to Z-

score: P(Z<σ65−μ)=0.45. Looking up 0.45 in the Z-table, the Z-score for 0.45 is
approximately -0.1257 (using linear interpolation between Z(-0.13)=0.4483 and Z(-
0.12)=0.4522). Let's use Z-score of -0.125. So, σ65−μ=−0.125 (Equation 2)
65−μ=−0.125σ⇒μ=65+0.125σ

Now we have a system of two linear equations for μ and σ:

3. μ=60+1.645σ
4. μ=65+0.125σ

Equating the two expressions for μ: 60+1.645σ=65+0.125σ 1.645σ−0.125σ=65−60

1.52σ=5 σ=1.525≈3.289 inches

Substitute σ back into either equation to find μ: μ=60+1.645×3.289

μ=60+5.409905≈65.41 inches

So, the mean height is approximately 65.41 inches and the standard deviation is
approximately 3.29 inches.

26. Let X be normally distributed with mean 3 and variance 9 and Y=1−2X

X∼N(μX=3,σX2=9), so σX=9 =3.

 o a. P(X>1) P(X>1)=P(Z>σX1−μX) P(X>1)=P(Z>31−3)=P(Z>3−2)=P(Z>−0.67)
P(Z>−0.67)=1−P(Z≤−0.67)=1−(1−P(Z<0.67))=P(Z<0.67) Using a Z-table,
P(Z<0.67)≈0.7486.
o b. P(-1<X<2) P(−1<X<2)=P(σX−1−μX<Z<σX2−μX) P(−1<X<2)=P(3−1−3
<Z<32−3) P(−1<X<2)=P(3−4<Z<3−1) P(−1<X<2)=P(−1.33<Z<−0.33)
P(−1.33<Z<−0.33)=P(Z<−0.33)−P(Z<−1.33) Using a Z-table:
P(Z<−0.33)=1−P(Z<0.33)≈1−0.6293=0.3707
P(Z<−1.33)=1−P(Z<1.33)≈1−0.9082=0.0918

P(−1<X<2)≈0.3707−0.0918=0.2789.

o c. P(X>3 Y<2) First, express the condition Y<2 in terms of X: Y=1−2X<2

−2X<2−1 −2X<1 X>−21 X>−0.5

So, P(X>3 AND Y<2) means P(X>3 AND X>−0.5). If X>3, it automatically
satisfies X>−0.5. Therefore, P(X>3 AND Y<2)=P(X>3).

P(X>3)=P(Z>σX3−μX) P(X>3)=P(Z>33−3)=P(Z>0) P(Z>0)=0.5 (since the

normal distribution is symmetric around its mean).

27. A hardware manufacturer produces bolts used to assemble various machines.

Assume that the diameter of bolts produced by this manufacturer has an unknown
population mean μ and the standard deviation is 0.1 mm. Suppose the average
diameter of a simple random sample of 50 bolts is 5.11 mm. Construct 95%
confidence interval for the population mean μ.

Given: Population standard deviation σ=0.1 mm Sample size n=50 Sample mean xˉ=5.11
mm Confidence level = 95%

Since the population standard deviation σ is known and the sample size n≥30, we use the
Z-distribution to construct the confidence interval. The formula for a confidence interval

for the population mean when σ is known is: xˉ±Zα/2n σ

For a 95% confidence level, α=1−0.95=0.05. So, α/2=0.025. Zα/2=Z0.025. Look up the
Z-score that leaves 0.025 in the upper tail (or 0.975 in the lower tail). This is Z0.025
=1.96.

Now, calculate the margin of error: Margin of Error (ME) = Zα/2n σ=1.96×50

0.1 50 ≈7.071 ME = 1.96×7.0710.1=1.96×0.01414≈0.0277

Construct the confidence interval: Confidence Interval = 5.11±0.0277 Lower bound =

5.11−0.0277=5.0823 Upper bound = 5.11+0.0277=5.1377
 The 95% confidence interval for the population mean diameter μ is
(5.0823 mm,5.1377 mm).

28. In a random sample of 250 employed people, 61 said that they bring work home
with them at least occasionally.

Sample size n=250. Number of successes (people who bring work home) x=61.

o a. Give a point estimate of the proportion of all employed people who bring
work home with them at least occasionally. The point estimate of the
population proportion (p) is the sample proportion (p^). p^=nx=25061=0.244
o b. Construct a 99% confidence interval for that proportion. For a confidence
interval for a proportion, since np^=61≥10 and n(1−p^)=250−61=189≥10, we can
use the normal approximation. The formula for a confidence interval for a

population proportion is: p^±Zα/2np^(1−p^)

Confidence level = 99%. So α=1−0.99=0.01. Thus, α/2=0.005. Zα/2=Z0.005.

Look up the Z-score that leaves 0.005 in the upper tail (or 0.995 in the lower tail).
This is Z0.005=2.576.

Now, calculate the standard error for the proportion: SEp^=np^(1−p^)

=2500.244(1−0.244) =2500.244×0.756 SEp^=2500.184464

=0.000737856 ≈0.02716

Calculate the margin of error: ME = Zα/2×SEp^=2.576×0.02716≈0.0700

Construct the confidence interval: Confidence Interval = 0.244±0.0700 Lower

bound = 0.244−0.0700=0.174 Upper bound = 0.244+0.0700=0.314

The 99% confidence interval for the proportion of all employed people who bring
work home is (0.174,0.314) or (17.4%,31.4%).

29. The amount of a particular biochemical substance related to bone breakdown was
measured in 30 healthy women. The sample mean and standard deviation were 3.3
nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) and 1.4 ng/mL. Construct an 80% confidence
interval for the mean level of this substance in all healthy women.

Given: Sample size n=30 Sample mean xˉ=3.3 ng/mL Sample standard deviation s=1.4
ng/mL Confidence level = 80%

Since the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is n=30 (which is
generally considered large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to apply, but also just at
the threshold where t-distribution is preferred when σ is unknown), we use the t-
 distribution for constructing the confidence interval. Degrees of freedom
df=n−1=30−1=29.

For an 80% confidence level, α=1−0.80=0.20. So, α/2=0.10. We need to find tα/2,df
=t0.10,29. From a t-distribution table, t0.10,29≈1.311.

The formula for a confidence interval for the population mean when σ is unknown is:

xˉ±tα/2,dfn s

Calculate the standard error of the mean: SExˉ=n s=30 1.4 30 ≈5.477 SExˉ
=5.4771.4≈0.2556

Calculate the margin of error: ME = tα/2,df×SExˉ=1.311×0.2556≈0.3351

Construct the confidence interval: Confidence Interval = 3.3±0.3351 Lower bound =

3.3−0.3351=2.9649 Upper bound = 3.3+0.3351=3.6351

The 80% confidence interval for the mean level of this substance in all healthy women is
(2.9649 ng/mL,3.6351 ng/mL).

30. A physical therapist studying muscular strength assumed muscle strength scores are
normally distributed with σ=12. A sample of 15 individuals demonstrates a mean
muscular strength score of 84.3. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for μ.
Interpret the meaning of this confidence interval.

Given: Population standard deviation σ=12 Sample size n=15 Sample mean xˉ=84.3
Confidence level = 95%

Since the population standard deviation σ is known, we use the Z-distribution to construct
the confidence interval, even though the sample size is small (n<30). The problem also
states that scores are normally distributed. The formula for a confidence interval for the

population mean when σ is known is: xˉ±Zα/2n σ

For a 95% confidence level, α=1−0.95=0.05. So, α/2=0.025. Zα/2=Z0.025=1.96.

Calculate the standard error of the mean: SExˉ=n σ=15 12 15 ≈3.873 SExˉ
=3.87312≈3.098

Calculate the margin of error: ME = Zα/2×SExˉ=1.96×3.098≈6.072

Construct the confidence interval: Confidence Interval = 84.3±6.072 Lower bound =

84.3−6.072=78.228 Upper bound = 84.3+6.072=90.372
 The 95% confidence interval for the population mean muscular strength score μ is
(78.228,90.372).

Interpretation of the confidence interval: We are 95% confident that the true average
muscular strength score for all individuals in the population falls between 78.228 and
90.372. This means that if we were to take many samples and construct a 95% confidence
interval for each, about 95% of these intervals would contain the true population mean.

31. Last year the government made a claim that the average income of the American
people was $33,950. However, a sample of 50 people taken recently showed an
average income of $34,076 with a population standard deviation of $324. Is the
government's estimate too low? Conduct a significance test to see if the true mean is
more than the reported average. Use an alpha =0.01.

This is a hypothesis testing problem for a population mean, with known population
standard deviation.

Given: Claimed population mean (from government) μ0=$33,950 Sample size n=50
Sample mean xˉ=$34,076 Population standard deviation σ=$324 Significance level
α=0.01

1. Formulate Hypotheses: Null Hypothesis H0: The true mean income is equal to or less
than the government's claim. H0:μ≤33,950 Alternative Hypothesis HA: The true mean
income is more than the government's claim. (This addresses "Is the government's
estimate too low?") HA:μ>33,950 This is a one-tailed (right-tailed) test.

2. Choose the Test Statistic: Since σ is known and n≥30, we use the Z-test for the mean.

Test statistic Z=σ/n xˉ−μ0

3. Calculate the Test Statistic: Z=324/50 34076−33950 50 ≈7.07106

Z=324/7.07106126=45.820126≈2.749

4. Determine the Critical Value: For a one-tailed (right-tailed) test with α=0.01, we
need to find Zα=Z0.01. Look up the Z-score that leaves 0.01 in the upper tail (or 0.99 in
the lower tail). Z0.01≈2.33.

5. Make a Decision: Compare the calculated Z-statistic to the critical value. Calculated
Z=2.749 Critical value Zcritical=2.33 Since 2.749>2.33, the calculated Z-statistic falls in
the rejection region.

6. Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis (H0). There is sufficient evidence at the 0.01
significance level to conclude that the true mean income of the American people is
significantly more than $33,950, suggesting that the government's estimate was too low.
32. A company sells exercise clothing and equipment on the Internet. To design the
clothing, the company collects data on the physical characteristics of different types
of customers. It takes a sample of 24 male runners found a mean weight of 61.79
kilograms. Assume that the population standard deviation of weight is σ=4.5
kilograms.

Given: Sample size n=24 Sample mean xˉ=61.79 kg Population standard deviation σ=4.5
kg

o a) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean weight of all such
runners: Since σ is known, we use the Z-distribution. (The sample size is small,
but if the population is normally distributed, which is often assumed in such
problems, the Z-interval is appropriate). Confidence level = 95%. So α=0.05,
α/2=0.025. Zα/2=Z0.025=1.96.

Standard error of the mean: SExˉ=n σ=24 4.5 24 ≈4.899 SExˉ

=4.8994.5≈0.9185

Margin of Error (ME) = Zα/2×SExˉ=1.96×0.9185≈1.800

Confidence Interval = xˉ±ME=61.79±1.800 Lower bound = 61.79−1.800=59.99

Upper bound = 61.79+1.800=63.59

The 95% confidence interval for the mean weight of all such runners is
(59.99 kg,63.59 kg).

o b) Based on this confidence interval, does a test of H0 μ=61.3 kg Vs HA:

μ =61.31 kg reject H0 at the 5% significance level? The null hypothesis is H0
:μ=61.3 kg. The alternative hypothesis is HA:μ =61.3 kg. The significance level
is 5% (α=0.05).

For a two-tailed test, if the hypothesized mean μ0 falls within the confidence
interval, we do not reject H0. If it falls outside the confidence interval, we reject
H0. Our 95% confidence interval is (59.99 kg,63.59 kg). The hypothesized mean
μ0=61.3 kg. Since 61.3 kg is within the interval (59.99,63.59), we do not reject
H0 at the 5% significance level.

o c) Carry out the hypothesis test in b to verify your answer 1. Formulate

Hypotheses: H0:μ=61.3 kg HA:μ =61.3 kg (two-tailed test)

2. Choose the Test Statistic: Z-test, since σ is known. Test statistic Z=σ/n
xˉ−μ0
 3. Calculate the Test Statistic: Z=4.5/24 61.79−61.3 Z=4.5/4.8990.49
=0.91850.49≈0.5335

4. Determine the Critical Values: For a two-tailed test with α=0.05, the critical
values are Zα/2=±Z0.025. Z0.025=1.96. So, the critical values are ±1.96.

5. Make a Decision: Compare the calculated Z-statistic to the critical values.

Calculated Z=0.5335. Critical values = ±1.96. Since −1.96<0.5335<1.96, the
calculated Z-statistic falls within the acceptance region.

6. Conclusion: Do not reject the null hypothesis (H0). There is not enough
evidence at the 0.05 significance level to conclude that the true mean weight of
male runners is different from 61.3 kg. This confirms the answer from part b.

33. Use the following data and fit a linear regression line to predict the price of used
car. The data is the about Asking price of some used Toyota Corollas advertised on
newspaper on October 2006.

Data: | Model Year (X) | Asking Price (Y) | | :------------- | :--------------- | | 2004 | $10950
| | 2003 | $9400 | | 2001 | $8990 | | 1998 | $5800 | | 1997 | $5850 | | 1994 | $3800 | | 1989 |
$1500 |

Let's define a new variable for 'Age of the car' (X) relative to 2006 (or the newest model
year). It's easier to work with smaller numbers for X, so let X be "Years since 1989".
Alternatively, let's use "Age" = 2006 - Model Year. | Model Year | Age (X) | Price (Y) | |
:--------- | :------ | :-------- | | 2004 | 2 | 10950 | | 2003 | 3 | 9400 | | 2001 | 5 | 8990 | | 1998 | 8
| 5800 | | 1997 | 9 | 5850 | | 1994 | 12 | 3800 | | 1989 | 17 | 1500 |

We need to calculate ∑X, ∑Y, ∑X2, ∑Y2, ∑XY, and n. n=7

∑X=2+3+5+8+9+12+17=56 ∑Y=10950+9400+8990+5800+5850+3800+1500=46290
∑X2=22+32+52+82+92+122+172=4+9+25+64+81+144+289=616
∑Y2=109502+94002+89902+58002+58502+38002+15002=119902500+88360000+808
20100+33640000+34222500+14440000+2250000=373635100
∑XY=(2×10950)+(3×9400)+(5×8990)+(8×5800)+(9×5850)+(12×3800)+(17×1500)
=21900+28200+44950+46400+52650+45600+25500=265200

a) Write the equation of the fitted line The linear regression equation is Y^=a+bX,
where: b=n(∑X2)−(∑X)2n(∑XY)−(∑X)(∑Y) a=n∑Y−b(∑X)

b=7(616)−(56)27(265200)−(56)(46290) b=4312−31361856400−2592240=1176−735840
≈−625.714

a=746290−(−625.714)(56) a=746290+35040=781330≈11618.57
 The equation of the fitted line is Y^=11618.57−625.714X, where X is the age of the car
(in years) and Y is the predicted asking price.

b) What is the slope of the line? What does it tell you? The slope of the line is
b=−625.714. This means that for every additional year of age, the asking price of a used
Toyota Corolla is predicted to decrease by approximately $625.71.

c) What is the correlation coefficient value? The correlation coefficient r is given by:

r=[n(∑X2)−(∑X)2][n(∑Y2)−(∑Y)2] n(∑XY)−(∑X)(∑Y)

We already calculated the numerator: n(∑XY)−(∑X)(∑Y)=−735840. We also calculated

the denominator first part: n(∑X2)−(∑X)2=1176.

Now calculate the denominator second part: n(∑Y2)−(∑Y)2=7(373635100)−(46290)2

=2615445700−2142750000=472695700

r=(1176)(472695700) −735840=555535352000 −735840 r=74534.248−735840

≈−0.9872

The correlation coefficient r≈−0.9872.

d) What proportion of the variability of the asking price explained by the age of the
car? The proportion of variability explained is given by the coefficient of determination,
R2, which is the square of the correlation coefficient (r2). R2=r2=(−0.9872)2≈0.9746

So, approximately 97.46% of the variability in the asking price can be explained by the
age of the car. This indicates a very strong linear relationship.

34. It has been observed that the amount of soil eroded (in Kg) per day (Y) is
determined by the wind velocity (X) in that day (Km/Hr) Data obtained from the
ministry of agriculture for a certain area gave the following regression line:
Y=0.25+0.1123 X

The given regression line is Y^=0.25+0.1123X. Here, Y^ is the predicted amount of soil
eroded (in Kg) and X is the wind velocity (in Km/Hr).

o a. What change in amount of soil erosion would be associated with 1 Km/Hr

change in wind velocity? The slope of the regression line, 0.1123, represents the
change in Y for a one-unit increase in X. So, a 1 Km/Hr change in wind velocity
would be associated with an increase of 0.1123 Kg in the amount of soil erosion.
o b. What amount of soil erosion would you predict for a wind velocity of
90 Km/Hr? Substitute X=90 into the regression equation: Y^=0.25+0.1123×90
Y^=0.25+10.107 Y^=10.357
For a wind velocity of 90 Km/Hr, the predicted amount of soil erosion is 10.357
Kg.