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2 views10 pagesProbability Ex - 13.3
Probability ncert 13.3 solution
Uploaded by
dharunsns8Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Class 12 Chapter 13 - Probability
Exercise 13.3
1. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at
random, its colour is noted and is returned to the urn.
Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in
the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the second ball is red?
Sol. Given: Urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls
(= Total balls = 5 + 5 = 10)
Let E,: first draw gives a red ball
Ey: first draw gives a black ball
(then E, and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.)
gj _ il 5 1
PQ) = 75 = 5 and PU) = 75 = 5
When the first draw gives a red ball, two additional red balls are
put in the urn so that its contents are 7 (= 5 + 2) red and 5
black balls. When the first draw gives a black ball, two
additional black balls are put in the um so that its contents are
5 red and 7 (= 5 + 2) black balls.
Let A: second draw gives a red ball
Required probability = P(A)
= Probability that first ball is red and then second ball drawn
after two red are added in the urn is also red + Probability
that first ball is black and second is red.
i at 7 6.2 1
=oxtyox2 ety Petal.
2 12 2 12 24 24 24 2
2. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains
2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at
random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to
be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the
first bag.
Sol. Let event E;: first bag is selected
E,: second bag is selected
(then E, and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.)
PE) = PE,)
Let A: ball drawn is red.
Then P(A/E,) = Probability that a red ball is chosen from bag
4
first = wa = 5 and Similarly P(A/E,) = i
We have to find P(E, /A).
i.e., Probability (that the ball is from bag I given that it is red).
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P(E,) P(A/E)
P(E,) P(A/E,) + P(E.) P(A/E,)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
We know that P(E,/A) =
Putting values, =
- 4 4.2
Multiplying by LOM. = 8 = 745 = 2 = 2.
3. Of the students in a college, it is known that 60% reside in
hostel and 40% are day scholars (not residing in hostel).
Previous year results report that 30% of all students who
reside in hostel attain A grade and 20% of day scholars
attain A grade in their annual examination. At the end of
the year, one student is chosen at random from the college
and he has an A grade, what is the probability that the
student is a hostlier?
Sol. Let event E,: a student is residing in hostel
Ey: a student is a day scholar (i.e., not residing in hostel)
then E, and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Given: 60% students reside in hostel and 40% don’t reside in
hostel (i.e., are day scholars)
Pe, = © = 3 and PEE,) = a =?
Let event E: a student attains A grade
Given: 30% of hostelers get A grade and 20% day scholars get A
grade.
+. P(B/E;) ie., probability that a hostlier gets A grade
ee ar SCE ES) epee
100 ~ 10 100” 10
We have to find P(E,/E). ie. Pa student getting A grade
resides in hostel)
We know that
P(E, /E) = — PR) PE/E)) ___ (gy Baye's Theorem)
,) P(E/E,) + P(E) P(E/E,)
q
9 9
Multiply every term by 50, =
944 13
4, In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student
either knows the answer or guesses. Let 7 be the
1
probability that he knows the answer and 7 be the
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Sol.
Chapter 13 - Probability
probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who
guesses at the answer will be correct with probability i,
What is the probability that the student knows the answer
given that he answered it correctly?
Let event E;: the student knows the answer
E,; the student guesses the answer
then E, and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Given: Pa) = 3 and PEE) = +
Let event A: the student answered correctly.
Then P(A/E,) = 1 (When he knows the answer, he
answers correctly is a sure event)
and P(A/E,) ie., Phe answers correctly when he guesses the
answer) = (given)
We have to find P(E, /A).
Required probability = Probability that the student knows the
answer given that he answered it correctly
P(E,) P(A/E)
POE/A) = 505) P(A/E,) + PE,) PA/E;)
Putting values
(By Baye's Theorem)
3 3 3
- 4. 4 (43,6 _2
= 3B, 1° +1” 138 4% 13° 13°
4°16 16 16
A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a
certain disease when it is in fact, present. However, the test
also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy
person tested (i.e., if a healthy person is tested, then, with
probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If
0.1 per cent of the population actually has the disease,
what is the probability that a person has the disease given
that his test result is positive?
Let event Ey: the person has the disease
and E, = Ey’: the person is healthy
then E, and E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Given: 0.1 per cent (i.e., 0.1%) of the population actually has the
disease.
O01 1
PED) = F90 = 1000"
and therefore P(E,) = P(E,’) = P(E,) = 299
aaa "1000
Let A: test result is
Given: P(A/E,) =
ositive
(Test result of a person having disease is
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Sol.
99 B,) = 05% = 22 - 5_
Positive) = 99% = 7 and P(A/E,) = 05% = 755 = 7599
We have to find P(E;/ A).
ie., probability that a person has the disease given that his test
result is positive.
P(E,) P(A/E,)
P(E,)P(A/E;) + P(E.) P(A/Ey)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
We know that P(E, /A) =
1 99
- 1000 “100
1,99 999. 5
eX pK
1000 100 1000” 1000
Multiplying every term by 1000 x 1000,
_ 990 _ 990 198 22
~ 990+4995 ~ 5985 1197 ~ 133"
There are three coins. One is a two headed coin (having
head on both faces), another is a biased coin that comes up
heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of
the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows
heads, what is the probability that it was the two headed
coin?
Let event E,: the chosen coin is two headed
Ey; the chosen coin is biased
Ey: the chosen coin is unbiased
then E,, E,, E; are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
P(E,) = P(E) = P(E) = ;
[- Each of the three coins has equal chance of being chosen]
Let event A: the tossed coin shows head. Then P(A/E,) i.e, P(A
coin having head on both faces shows head)
2
=grh
: 1 38 1
Given: P(A/E,) = 755 = g, PA/E)) = 5.
(. Third coin is unbiased i.e., true coin)
We have to find P(E,/A). ie., probability (that the coin chosen is
two headed coin given that the coin shows heads)
We know that
P(E,) P(A/E)
P(E,) P(A/E,) + P(E,) P(A/E,) + P(Es) P(A/Es)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
P(E; /A) =
Putting values, =
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Multiplying ever term by 3, = —3—> ; ei 24
"y 9-9
1+—+— =
4°24
An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000
car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of an
accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the
insured persons meets with an accident. What is the
probability that he is a scooter driver?
Let event E,: the insured person is a scooter driver
E,: the insured person is a car driver
E,: the insured person is a truck driver
then E,, E, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Total number of insured vehicles
= 2000 + 4000 + 6000 = 12000
n(E,) _ 2000 1 _ 4000
PE n(S) ~ 12000 6’ PE) = T2000 ~ 3°
6000 1
Pe ee
"") = t9000 ~ 2
Let event A: insured person meets with an accident.
Given: P(A/E,) i.e., P(An insured scooter driver meets with an
. 1 3. 3
accident) = 0.01 = 75, PYA/B,) = 0.03 = 755,
15
/ =A
and P(A/Bs) = 0.15 = 755
We have to find P(E,/A). i.e., P(The person is a scooter driver
given that an insured person has met with an accident).
We know that
P(E,) P(A/E,)
P(E, )P(A/E;) + P(E,) P(A/E,) + P(E3) P(A/Eg)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
P(E, /A) =
a
6” 100
T,1,1,3 1b
alae
6° 1003
meee
100 * 2100
Multiplyi term by 600, 1 1
ultiplying every term =e
Ping Overy. y= T6445 ~ BD
A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows
that machine A produced 60% of the items of output and
machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the
items produced by machine A and 1% produced by machine
B were defective. All the items are put into one stockpile
and then one item is chosen at random from this and is
found to be defective. What is the probability that it was
produced by machine B?
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Sol.
Sol.
Let event Ey: the item is produced by machine A
and E,; the item is produced by machine B
then E,, Ey are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
3 40 2
Given: PE) = 6% = = 3, PE) = 40% = 95 = 5
Let D: the chosen item is defective
Given: PoD/E) ie, Plan stom produced by machine A is
defective) = a P(D/ Ey) = in
We have to find P(E, /D) = P(An item is produced by machine B
given that it is defective)
We know that
PEE, /D) = P(E,) P(D/E,)
P(E,) P(D/E) + PE) P(D/E,)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
2 2
Multiplying every term by 500, = g 75 = = = 7.
Two groups are competing for the position on the Board of
directors of a corporation. The probabilities that the first
and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively.
Further, if the first group wins, the probability of
introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding
probability is 0.3, if the second group wins. Find the
probability that the new product introduced was by the
second group.
Let event E;: first group wins
and event E,: second group wins
then E;, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
ss, 6 4
Given: P(E,) = 0.6 = To’ PE,) = 0.4 = i0
Let A: the new product is introduced
Given: P(A/E,) = P(New product being introduced if first group
Ei 3
=0.7=—, and P(A/E,)=03=—.
wins) Zp’ and PIA/E,) an
We have to find P(E,/A). (i.e., probability that second group wins
given that the new product was introduced)
We know that
P(E,) P(A/E,)
POB,/A) = BR) P(A/E,) + Py) PA/Ey)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
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433
= 10_10
67,43
Sy, 7,43
10°10 10° 10
Multiplying every term by 100,
12 2 2
10. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses
a coin three times and notes the number of heads. If she
gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a
head or tail is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head,
what is the probability that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with the
die?
Sol. Let event Ey: the die shows 1, 2,3 or4 = n(E,)=4
and E,: the die shows 5 or 6 = n(E,) = 2
then Ej, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
4 2 1
PE) =— =
(Ey 6
[We know that sample space on tossing a dice is = (1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6} and has 6 points]
Let A: the girl obtained exactly one head
then P(A/E,) = P(exactly one head when a coin is tossed once) = i
and P(A/E,) = P(exactly one head when a coin is tossed three
3
ti —.
‘imes) 3
[-: the sample space when a coin is tossed three times is
S$ = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT) Let
event E: exactly one head appears, then E = (HTT, THT, TTH}
and P(E) = (P(A/E,) here in this question) = 3
We have to find P(E,/A). i.e, P(A dice shows 1, 2, 3, 4 given
that she gets exactly one head).
We know that
P(E,) P(A/E) "
PUN /A) = SG) PA/E,)+PCE,)PAE,) BY Baye’s Theorem)
21 1
~ 3°72 _ 3
Jyiglys 1,2
3°2°3"8 378
Multiplying by LOM. = 24,= 8 = 8.
a+3 on
11. A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C.
The first operator A produces 1% defective items, where as
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the other two operators B and C produce 5% and 7%
defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the
time, B is on the job for 30% of the time and C is on the job
for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced, what is
the probability that it was produced by A?
Let event E,: operator A is on job
Ey: operator B is on job
Es: operator C is on job
then E,, E,, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
i % = 20
Given: PH) = 50% = 755,
Let D: a defective item is produced
Given: P(D/E,) = P(an item produced by operator A on the job
. A 1 5 7
is defective) = >, PID/E,) = 755+ P/E) = 795
We have to find P(E,/D). = P(An item was produced by A given
that it is defective)
We know that
g
30 20
PE) = 399° PEs) = 99
P(E,) P(D/Ey)
P(E,) P(D/E,) + P(E,) P(D/E,) + PBs) P/E)
(By Baye’s Theorem)
P(E, /D) =
50 1
Putting values, = —g;—;—10? 100 __-____
100“ 100 * 100 “100 * 100 * 100
Multiplying every term by 100 x 100
~ 50+150+140 340 ~ 34°
12. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining
cards of the pack, two cards are drawn and are found to be
both diamonds. Find the probability of the lost card being a
diamond.
Sol. Let E,: the lost card is a diamond
and E, = Ey’: the lost card is not a diamond
then E,, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
We know that there are 13 diamond cards in a pack of 52 cards.
3 1 , 1 3
PE) = 5 = 5) PB) =P) =1-PE)=1-F = 7
Let event A: two cards drawn from the remaining pack are
diamonds
then P(A/E,) = P(drawing two diamond cards when the lost
12x11
»
C, 132
card is a diamond card) = aigt = eae =
2x1
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Sol.
Class 12 Chapter 13 - Probability
[The lost card is a diamond, therefore, there are 12 diamond
cards in the remaining pack of 51 cards]
13x12
Bo, 2x1 156
ig, =
51x50 ~ 2550
2x1
[The lost card is not a diamond, therefore, there are 13
diamond cards in the remaining pack of 51 cards]
We have to find P(E,/A) i.e., Post card is a diamond card given
that the two cards drawn from the remaining pack of 51 cards
are diamonds)
and P(A/E,) =
We know that
_ P(E,) P(A/E) 7
PUES/A) = 535 PCA/E,) + PCB) PATH) 2 Bave’s Theorem)
1, 132
ae
4” 2550
32 3, 156
4° 2550 4” 2550
Ps 132 132 _ 11
Multiplying te by 4 x 2550, = ——““__ = ““ = —.
———— Aa 132+468 600 50
4
Probability that A speaks truth is 3° A coin is tossed. A
reports that a head appears. The probability that actually
there was head is
ms B) + ot p) 2
As Bs Os @) 5-
Let event Ey: a head appears on a coin.
and E, = Ey’: a head does not appear
then E,, E, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
1
P(B,) = PE) = 5
Let event H: (Person) A reports that a head appears
Given: P(H/E,) = P(Person A reports that a head appears when
actually there is head) = P(A speaks truth) = ;
and hence P(H/E,) = P(A tells a lie) = 1 — 4 = ;
we have to find P(E, /H) = P(A head (actually) appears; reported
that a head has appeared)
We know that
_ P(E,) POH/E,) ,
PUR /H)= 505.) PH/E,) + P(B,) P/E) ‘PY Bave’s Theorem)
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1,4
j ~ 255
Putting values = = 7—$-8 >
Sele oxd
2°5°2°5
Multiplying by LCM. = 10,= —2- = 4
plying by LOM. = 10, = 77> = 5.
The correct option is (A).
14. If A and B are two events such that A c B and P(B) + 0,
then which of the following is correct?
P(B)
(A) P(A/B) = PA) (B) P(A/B) < P(A)
(C) P(A/B) 2 P(A) (D) None of these.
So. ACB => ANB=A
P(AMB) _ P(A)
P(A/B) = PB) PB)
Since, P(B) # 0,
0