“Ethnicity, sectarianism and economic instability are fundamental variables of internal security threats
to Pakistan. Religious extremism has created an unenviable image of Pakistan in the eyes of the rest of
the world and has affected the country adversely. At the same time inter-provincial grievances could
potentially cause serious damage to the federation. Despite recent economic recovery and sound macro
policies, the absence of genuine socio-economic development has provided ethno-sectarian elements
and regional forces grounds to exploit and weaken Pakistan internally” - Naveed Safdar – Naval
Postgraduate School, California
“only threat is sectarian and religious terrorism, which is eating us like termites, and it is Islam and the
Muslim Ummah (community) which is paying the high cost. We all have to fight against it.” - Musharraf
Terrorism:
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Pakistan saw 319 terrorism-related incidents in 2020, and
169 associated deaths of civilians. That represents a decline, from a high of nearly 4,000 such incidents
in 2013, with over 2,700 civilian deaths (see figure below).
‘This reduction in overall violence is consistent with a trend seen since 2014, when Pakistani security
forces undertook a widespread military operation targeting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its
allies. It has displaced those groups from their erstwhile strongholds in North Waziristan and adjoining
districts, thereby reducing their operational capacity to carry out attacks on Pakistani soil. Significant
threats do, however, remain. Attacks by Improvised Explosive Device (IED), targeted shooting, suicide
bombing, hand grenades and rockets all occurred in 2019.’ - Asad Hashim
Militancy
On 6 August 2020, Michael Kugelman, the Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South
Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, stated the following about the security
situation in the first half of 2020: ‘The security situation remained relatively calm during the first half of
2020, comparable to all of 2019 ... However, one key area to watch is the issue of separatist militancy...
groups like the Baluchistan Liberation Army have become more active and staged some major attacks,
including an assault on the stock exchange in Karachi. These Baloch groups appear to be looking to
broaden their clout as well. One of the biggest developments so far in the 2020 security environment is
the announcement of a new alliance between Baloch separatist groups and nationalists in Sindh
province—this interprovincial alliance is unprecedented, and suggests a desire on the part of (non-
Islamist) anti-state actors to step up their fight’
Ethnic and sectarian
In July 2020, Abdul Basit, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS),
stated that ‘the structural factors of violence —religious intolerance, abysmal socio-economic conditions
and ethno-nationalist grievances —not only remain unaddressed but they have exacerbated further in
recent years.’ The geopolitical situation (the intra-Afghan peace process and the India-China border
dispute) have implications on the security situation and on anti-Pakistan militant groups, particularly on
the ethno-separatist groups, according to Basit.
Militant groups have continuously targeted religious minorities in Pakistan throughout the years. Shias,
Hindus, Christians and Ahmadiyya communities were the victims of sectarian violence.
{Case of TLP goes here and in the islamophobia section – media reported 3 TLP supporters killed; 5
policemen martyred; 11 policemen were taken as hostages}
India / Kashmir
Though the rift escalated prior to Covid situation(balakot – abhinandan – India rendering inoperative the
article 370 – Kashmir in lockdown since prior to corona I-e 5th August 2019), right now there’s little
possibility of military standoff because both govts are busy fighting corona.
Afghan Peace and international context
During the US-Taliban negotiations, Pakistan played a key role helping to bring the Taliban to the table.
At the end of June 2019, President Ashraf Ghani visited Pakistan to discuss different topics such as
strengthening bilateral cooperation and the role of Pakistan in achieving peace in Afghanistan. On 9 June
2020, Pakistan’s military and intelligence chiefs had a meeting in Kabul which was described as an ice
breaker for the relations between the two countries. The visit occurred within the context of intra-
Afghan peace dialogue which was set to begin in mid-June 2020. In July 2020, Pakistan invited
Afghanistan’s chief peace negotiator, Abdullah Abdullah, for an official visit to Islamabad. Raoof Hasan,
chief executive of Islamabad-based Regional Policy Institute, cited in Voice of America (VoA), mentioned
that this invitation is seen ‘as a good move and another sign of thaw in bilateral strained relations’. In
July 2020, rockets were fired in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghanistan
demanded that Pakistan refrained from these kinds of attacks. The reopening of trade routes between
Afghanistan and Pakistan in July 2020 is seen as a positive and improving sign in the ties between both
countries.
A June 2020 article of the Diplomat stated that the relationship between Pakistan and Iran is ‘both
complex and important’. In April 2019, Pakistan and Iran agreed to set up a joint security force to police
the border and to increase bilateral security co-operation. In the aftermath of an attack on Pakistani
security forces on 8 May 2020 in the border region with Iran, General Qamar Bajwa, asked his Iranian
counterpart to take action against local militant groups operating in Iran.
