Binomial Probability

5.61
N= 14 p = 0.3 q = 0.7

a. P ( x ≥ 8 )
Therefore P ( x=8 ) + P ( x=9 )+ P ( x=10 ) + P ( x=11) +¿ P ( x=12 ) +Type equation here . P
( x=13 ) + P ( x=14 )

n x n− x
P ( X=x ) =c x ( p ) ( q )

14 8 14−8
P ( x=8 ) =c 8 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

= (3003)(0.00006561)(0.117649)
= 0.023180009 = 0.0232

14 9 14−9
P ( x=9 ) =c 9 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

= (2002) (0.000019683)(0.16807)
= 0.006622859= 0.0066

14 10 14−10
P ( x=10 )=c10 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

= (1001)(0.000005904)(0.2401)
= 0.001418967 = 0.0014

14 11 14−11
P ( x=11) =c 11 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
 = (364)(0.000001771)(0.343)
= 0.000221112 = 0.0002

14 12 14−12
P ( x=12 )=c 12 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

(91)(0.000000531)(0.49)= 0.000023696
= 0.0000
14 13
P ( x=13 )=c13 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−13
=
(14) (0.000000159(0.7) = 0.000001562
= 0.0000
14 14
P ( x=14 )=c 14 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−14
=
(1)(0.000000047)(1) = 0.000000047
=0.0000

Therefore P ( x ≥ 8 ) ≈ 0.0314

b. The probability that x is at most 3 is P ( x ≤3 )

Therefore P ( x=0 ) + P( x=1 ) + P ( x=2 )+ P ( x=3 )

 14 0 14−0
P ( x=0 ) =c 0 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

= (1).(1).(0.00678) = 0.0068

14 1 14−1
P ( x=1 )=c 1 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

=(14)(0.3)(0.009688901)= 0.0407

14 2
P ( x=2 )=c2 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−2
=

= (91) (0.09)(0.013841287)= 0.1134

14 3 14 −3
P ( x=3 )=c3 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )

(364)(0.027)(0.01.9773267)= + 0.1943

0.3552

Mean = np = 14 x 0.3 = 4.2

Variance = npq = 14 x 0.3 x 0.7 = 2.94

Standard deviation =n √ 14 ×0.3 × 0.7 = 1.71

c. The probability that x is 3 to 7

=
 Therefore P ( x=3 )+ P( x=4 ) + P ( x=5 )+ P ( x=6 ) + ( x=7 )

14 3
P ( x=3 )=c3 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14 −3
= 0.1934

14 4
P ( x=4 )=c 4 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−4
= 0.2290

14 5
P ( x=5 )=c5 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14 −5
= 0.1963

14 6
P ( x=6 ) =c 6 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−6
= 0.1262

14 7
P ( x=7 ) =c 7 ( 0.3 ) ( 0.7 )
14−7
= + 0.0618
0.8067

5.60
N= 20 p = 0.5 q = 0.5
 a . Pr that x is at most 7 is P ( x ≤ 7 )

Therefore P ( x=0 ) + P ( x=1 ) + P ( x=2 ) + P ( x=3 ) +¿ P ( x=4 ) +Type equation here . P

( x=5 ) + P ( x=6 ) + P ( x=7 )

n x n− x
P ( X=x ) =c x ( p ) ( q )

20 0
P ( x=0 ) =c 0 ( 0. 5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−0
= 0.000000953
20 1
P ( x=1 )=c 1 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−1
= 0.000019073
20 2
P ( x=2 )=c2 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−2
= 0.0002
20 3
P ( x=3 )=c3 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−3
= 0.0011
20 4
P ( x=4 )=c 4 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−4
=0.0046
20 5
P ( x=5 )=c5 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−5
= 0.0148
20 6
P ( x=6 ) =c 6 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−6
= 0.0370
20 7
P ( x=7 ) =c 7 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−7
= 0.0739

Therefore Pr that x is at most 7 is P ( x ≤ 7 ) =0.1316

b. The Pr that x is at least 13is P ( x ≥ 13 )

20 13
P ( x=13 )=c13 ( 0. 5 ) ( 0. 5 )
20−13
= 0.0739
20 14
P ( x=1 4 )=c 1 4 ( 0 .5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−1 4
= 0.0370
 20 15
P ( x=15 )=c 1 5 ( 0. 5 ) ( 0.5 )
20−15
= 0.0148
20 16
P ( x=1 6 )=c1 6 ( 0.5 ) ( 0. 5 )
20−1 6
= 0.0046
20 17
P ( x=17 )=c 1 7 ( 0.5 ) ( 0. 5 )
20−17
= 0.0011
20 18
P ( x=1 8 )=c 18 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.7 )
20−1 8
= 0.0002
20 19
P ( x=1 9 )=c 1 9 ( 0.5 ) ( 0.7 )
20−1 9
= 0.0000
20 20
P ( x=20 )=c 20 ( 0. 5 ) ( 0.7 )
20−20
= 0.0000
0.1316

Therefore P ( x ≥ 13 ) ≈ 0.0314

Poisson Probability Distribution

Example
 𝞴= 9.5 x=6

x −λ
( ) λ e
p X=x =
x!

( 9.5 )6 (2.71828)−9.5
p ( x=6 ) =
6!

❑
735,091.8906 × 0.000074852
p ( x=6 ) =
720

55.0230982
p ( x=6 ) =
720
p ( x=6 ) =0.076420969

𝞴= 3
Example 2

x≤1

x −λ
λ e
p ( x )=
x!

Therefore p(x =0) + P (x=1)

 0 1
−3 3 3
p ( x ≤ 1 )=(2.71828) ( + )
0! 1 !
1 3
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.049787168 ( + )
1 1

p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.049787168 (1+ 3)

p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.049787168 (4)
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.199

Question 5.89
𝞴= 3.7
a. At most one means x can be 0 or 1
0 1
−3.7 3.7 3.7
p ( x ≤ 1 )=e ( + )
0! 1!
1 3.7
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.024723588 ( + )
1 1
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.024723588 (1+ 3.7)
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.024723588 (4.7)
p ( x ≤ 1 )=0.116200863
b. (i)
1 2 3 4
−3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
( )
p x=1¿4 =e ( + + + )
1! 2! 3! 4!

3.7 13.69 50.653 187.4161

p ( x=1¿4 )=0.024723588 ( + + + )
1 2 6 24

p ( x=1¿4 )=0.024723588 ¿ )

p ( x=1¿4 )=0.024723588 ¿ )

p ( x=1¿4 )=0.662
 x −λ
λ e
p ( x )=
x!

Using Tables
= 0.0915
1 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=1 )=
1!

= 0.1692
2 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=2 )=
2!

= 0.2087
3 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=3 )=
3!

= 0.1931
4 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=4 )=
4!

Therefore Pr ( x is 1 to 4) =
0.6625
 b(ii)
0 1 2 3 4 5
−3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
p ( x=0¿5 )=e ( + + + + + )
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!

1 3.7 13.69 50.653 187.4161 693.43957

p ( x=0¿5 )=0.024723588( + + + + + )
1 1 2 6 24 120

p ( x=0¿5 )=0.024723588 ¿)

p ( x=0¿5 )=0.024723588 ¿)

p ( x=0¿5 )=¿0.830094467

p ( x=0¿5 )=¿0.83

Therefore P ( x ≥ 6 ) =1− pr (x=0¿5)

Therefore P ( x ≥ 6 ) =1−0.8301

Therefore P ( x ≥ 6 ) =0.1699
Using Table

= 0.0247
0 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
( x=0 )=
0!

= 0.0915
1 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
( x=1 )=
1!

= 0.1692
2 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=2 )=
2!

= 0.2087
3 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=3 )=
3!

= 0.1931
4 −3.7
3.7 (2.71828)
p ( x=4 )=
4!

= 0.1429
−3.7
5(2.71828)
p ( x=5 )=
5!

0.8301

(iii)
0 1 2 3
−3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
p ( x=0¿3 )=e ( + + + )
0! 1! 2! 3!

1 3.7 13.69 50.653

p ( x=0¿3 )=0.024723588( + + + )
1 1 2 6

p ( x=0¿3 )=0.024723588(1+3.7+ 6.845+8.442)

 p ( x=0¿3 )=0.024723588 ¿)

p ( x=0¿3 )=¿0.494150353

p ( x=0¿3 )=¿0.494

𝞴= 1.6
Question 5.90

a.
3
1.6 −1.6
p ( x=3 )=2.71828 ) (
3!
4.096
= 0.201896735( 6 ¿
= 0.201896735(0.682666666) = 0.138

b.
2 3
1.6 1.6
(i) p ( x=2¿3 )=2.71828
−1.6
( +
2! 3!
)
 2.56 4.096
p ( x=2¿3 )=0.201896735( + )
2 6

p ( x=2¿3 )=0.201896735 ¿)

p ( x=2¿3 )=0.201896735 ¿)

p ( x=2¿3 )=0.3957176

(ii) p ( x ≥ 4 )=¿
1 – [ p ( x=0 ) + p ( x=1 ) + p ( x=2 ) + p ( x=3 )]

0 1 2 3
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
−1.6
p ( x=0¿3 )=2.71828 + (+ + )
0! 1! 2! 3!
1 1.6 2.56 4.096
p ( x=0¿3 )=0.201896735( + + + )
1 1 2 6
p ( x=0¿3 )=0.201896735(1+1.6+ 1.28+0.683)
p ( x=0¿3 )=0.201896735(4.563)
p ( x=0¿3 )=0.921

Therefore P(x ≥ 4) = 1 – P(x = 0 to 3)

= 1 – 0.921

= 0.079

(iii) P(x ≤ 3) = P(x = 0 to 3) – P( x = 3)

= 0 .921 – 0.138

= 0.783
Exercise 5.91

𝞴= 0.5
a.
1
−0.5 0.5
p ( x=1 )=e ( )
1!
0.5
= 0.606530863 ( 1
¿

b.
= 0.606530863(0.5) = 0.303265431
2 3 4
0.5 0.5 0.5
−0.5
p ( x=2¿4 )=e + + ( )
(i) 2! 3! 4!
0.25 0.125 0.0625
= 0.606530863 ( 2 + 6 + 24 ¿

= 0.606530863(0.125 + .021 + 0.003)

= 0.606530863(0.149)

= 0.090373098
 (ii) P(X is more than 3)
0 1 2 3
st 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
1 ……. p ( x=0¿3 )=e −0.5
( +
0! 1!
+
2!
+
3!
)
1 0.5 0.25 0.125
= 0.606530863 (1+ 1 + 2 + 6 ¿
= 0.606530863(1+ 0.5 + 0.125 + .021 )

= 0.606530863(1.646)

= 0.9983498

2nd ………Therefore P ( x> 3 )=1−P (x=1¿3)

= 1 – 0.9983498

= 0.001650199

(iii) P( x is less than 2) = P ¿)

0 1
0.5 0.5
= −0.5
p ( x=0∧1 )=e (
0!
+
1!
)
1 0.5
= 0.606530863 (1+ 1 ¿
= 0.606530863(1+ 0.5 )

= 0.606530863(1.5)

= 0.909796294