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Guesstimate S

This document provides guidance on guesstimates, which are approximate calculations used in interviews to evaluate critical thinking skills. It outlines the funnel approach to guesstimates, starting with broad assumptions and drilling down to a specific solution. An example is then worked through, estimating the number of ping pong balls that could fit inside a Boeing 747 aircraft. The document guides working through successive levels of detail, considering factors like the volume of individual balls, passenger space equivalents, cargo space, and final packing density to arrive at an estimated answer of over 7 million balls. Interviewees are encouraged to think out loud and show their work.

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sharmisthahalder21
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41 views8 pages

Guesstimate S

This document provides guidance on guesstimates, which are approximate calculations used in interviews to evaluate critical thinking skills. It outlines the funnel approach to guesstimates, starting with broad assumptions and drilling down to a specific solution. An example is then worked through, estimating the number of ping pong balls that could fit inside a Boeing 747 aircraft. The document guides working through successive levels of detail, considering factors like the volume of individual balls, passenger space equivalents, cargo space, and final packing density to arrive at an estimated answer of over 7 million balls. Interviewees are encouraged to think out loud and show their work.

Uploaded by

sharmisthahalder21
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Session 4

Guesstimates

15 July 2019
Guesstimates
Introduction

• “Ballpark” figures or “back of the envelope” calculations – basically approximations

• Independent part of the interview or used during a case

• No random figures allowed


– May be asked to validate your assumptions

• Guesstimates vs. Cases


– Similarity
• Used to showcase your ability to analyze a situation and form conclusions by thinking out loud
– Difference
• Case-> ask a series of questions from the interviewer
• Guesstimate-> reach conclusion through a series of increasingly specific statements

• Why are these asked?


– Used to reject hypothesis

-2-
The First Encounter
HOW MANY PING PONG BALLS FIT IN A BOEING 747?

• Do NOT panic
– Ask for a moment to compose your thoughts

• No need to be exact
– Pick nice round numbers that are easy for you to manipulate

• Funnel Approach
– Think broadly, slowly drill down to the final solution

• Interviewer will be providing directions else make assumptions

-3-
Working towards the solution
The funnel approach

• What is your structure?

Volume of Volume of Ans= Volume


ping pong ball Boeing 747 1/ Volume 2

• The easy part: - Volume of ping pong ball= 4/3**R^3= 3 inch3

• The tough part: - Future Consultants i.e. YOU to take up the mantle

-4-
Our Solution

• Person equivalent= 6 feet height * 1 foot wide * 1 foot deep = 10368 inch3

• “Spaces” in a Boeing 747


– Seats =400
– Galleys = 3
– Lavatories = 14
– Aisles = 3

• Total person equivalents


– Seats = 400 person equivalents
– Galleys = 6*3 person equivalents
– Lavatories = 14*2 person equivalents
– Aisles = 40*3 person equivalents

• Total = approx 600 person equivalents

• Number of balls = 600*10368/ 3= 2,073,600…… Are we there yet?

-5-
Unfortunately No

• Cargo and extra space (belly holds, overhead compartment, leg room and space above the passenger’s heads)
– If figures are known can be calculated else take assumptions
– E.g. 4 times packing space as the volume of persons

• Total = 600 + 2400 = 3000 person equivalents

• Volume of a Boeing 747 = 3000*10368= 31,104,000 in3

• Number of balls that can be held= 10,368,000 balls

• Are we there yet?

• The Extra Step.. The ‘piece de resistance’


– PACKING DENSITY!

• The final figure =70% * 10,368,000= 7,257,600 balls

-6-
Do you want more?
HOW MANY GALLONS OF WHITE HOUSE PAINT ARE SOLD IN THE U.S. EVERY YEAR?

• 2 approaches

• The Start Big approach Number of


Number of
Add shops,
residential
people in US offices etc.
houses

Frequency of
Paint used Area of 1 house
painting

• The Start Small approach


– Start from a small town

-7-
Thank You

-8-

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