CHAPTERFI

FTYFOUR

PROBABI
LITY
Speci
fi
cObj
ect
ives

Byt
heendoft
het
opi
cthel
ear
nershoul
dbeabl
eto:
(
a)Def
inepr
obabi
l
ity
;
(
b)Det
ermi
nepr
obabi
l
ityf
rom ex
per
iment
sandr
eal
li
fesi
tuat
ions;
(
c)Const
ructapr
obabi
l
ityspace;
(
d)Det
ermi
net
heor
eti
cal
probabi
l
ity
;
(
e)Di
ff
erent
iat
ebet
weendi
scr
eteandcont
inuouspr
obabi
l
ity
;
(
f)Di
ff
erent
iat
emut
ual
l
yexcl
usi
veandi
ndependentev
ent
s;
(
g)St
ateandappl
ylawsofpr
obabi
l
ity
;
(
h)Useat
reedi
agr
am t
odet
ermi
nepr
obabi
l
iti
es.
Content
(a)Probabi
l
ity
(
b)Ex
per
iment
alpr
obabi
l
ity
(
c)Rangeofpr
obabi
l
itymeasur
e0^P(
x)^
1
(
d)Pr
obabi
l
ityspace
(
e)Theor
eti
cal
probabi
l
ity
(
f)Di
scr
eteandcont
inuouspr
obabi
l
ity(
simpl
ecasesonl
y)
(
g)Combi
nedev
ent
s(mut
ual
l
yexcl
usi
veandi
ndependentev
ent
s)
(
h)Lawsofpr
obabi
l
ity
(
i)Thet
reedi
agr
ams.

I
ntr
oduct
ion
Thel i
kel
ihoodofanoccur
renceofanev
entort
henumer
icalmeasur
eofchancei
scal
l
ed
probabi
li
ty.

Exper
iment
alpr
obabi
l
ity
Thi
siswher
epr
obabi
l
ityi
sdet
ermi
nedbyexper
ienceorexper
iment
.Whati
sdoneorobser
ved

513
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i
st heexperiment.Eachtossiscalledatr
ialandtheresul
tofat ri
ali
stheoutcome.The
exper
imentalprobabi
l
ityofaresul
tisgiv
enby(thenumberoffav
orabl
eout
comes)/(t
hetotal
numberoftri
als)
Exampl
e
Aboyhadaf ai
rdi
ewithfacesmarked1t
o6.Hethr
ew thi
sdieup50ti
mesandeacht
imehe
r
ecor
dedthenumberonthetopf
ace.Ther
esul
tofhi
sexperi
menti
sshownbel
ow.

face 1 2 3 4 5 6
Numberof 11 6 7 9 9 8
ti
mes a
face has
shownup

Whati
stheex
per
iment
alpr
ovabi
l
ityofget
ti
ng?
a.
)1 b.
)6
Sol
uti
on
a.
)P(
Event
)=
P(
1)=11/
50
b.
)P(
4)=9/
50
Exampl
e
From t
hepastr
ecor
ds,outofthet
enmat chesaschoolfoot
bal
lteam haspl
ayed,i
thaswon
seven.
Howmanypossi
blegamesmightt
heschool
wininthir
tymatches?.

Sol
uti
on
P(
winni
ngi
nonemat
h)=7/
10.
Ther
efor
ethenumberofpossi
blewi
nsi
nthi
rt
ymat
ches=7/
10x30=21mat
ches

Rangeofpr
obabi
l
ityMeasur
e
I
fP(A)istheprobabi
li
tyofaneventAhappeni
ngandP(
A')i
sthepr
obabi
l
ityofanev
entAnot
happeni
ng,ThenP(A'
)=1-P(A)andP(A'
)+P(A)=1
Pr
obabi
l
ityar
eexpr
essedasf
ract
ions,
deci
mal
sorper
cent
ages.

Pr
obabi
l
ityspace
Alistofal
lpossi
bleoutcomesisprobabi
li
tyspaceorsampl
espace.Thecoi
nissucht
hatthe
headortai
lhaveequalchancesofoccur
ri
ng.Theevent
sheadort
ailar
esaidt
obeequal
lyl
i
kely
oreqipr
obabl
e.

514
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Theor
eti
cal
probabi
l
ity
Thi
scanbecalcul
atedwi
thoutnecessar
il
yusinganypastexper
ienceordoi
nganyexper
iment
.
Theprobabi
l
ityofan ev
enthappeni ng #numberoffavorabl
eout comes/t
otalnumberof
out
comes.
Exampl
e
Abasketcontai
ns5r
edbal
l
s,4gr
eenbal
l
sand3bl
uebal
l
s.I
fabal
lispi
ckedatr
andom f
rom
t
hebasket,
find:
a.
)Thepr
obabi
l
ityofpi
cki
ngabl
uebal
l
b.
)Thepr
obabi
l
ityofnotpi
cki
ngar
edbal
l

Sol
uti
on
a.
)Tot
alnumberofbal
l
sis12
Thenumberofbl
uebal
l
sis3
Sol
uti
on
a.
)ther
efor
e,P(
abl
uebal
l
)=3/
12
b.
)Thenumberofbal
l
swhi
char
enotr
edi
s7.
Ther
efor
eP(notar
edbal
l
)=7/
12

Exampl
e
Abagcont
ains6blackbal
l
sandsomebr ownones.Ifabal
lispi
ckedatr
andom t
hepr
obabi
l
ity
t
hati
tisbl
ackis0.
25.Fi
ndthenumberofbr
ownball
s.
Sol
uti
on
Lett
henumberofbal
l
sbex
Thent
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatabl
ackbal
li
spi
ckedatr
andom i
s6/
x
Ther
efor
e6/
x=0.
25
x=24
Thet
otal
numberofbal
dis24
Thent
henumberofbr
ownbal
l
sis24-6=18

Not
e:
Whenal
lpossi
bleout
comesar
ecountabl
e,t
heyar
esai
dtobedi
scr
ete.

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Ty
pesofpr
obabi
l
ity
Combi
nedEv
ent
s
Thesear
epr
obabi
l
ityoft
woormor
eev
ent
soccur
ri
ng

Mut
ual
l
yExcl
usi
veEv
ent
s
Occur
renceofoneexcludestheoccur
renceoftheotherortheoccurr
enceofoneeventdepend
ontheoccurrenceoft
heother.
.IfAandBar etwomut ual
lyexcl
usiv
eev ent
s,t
hen(AorB)=P
(A)+P(B).Forexampl
ewhenacoi nistossedt
heresultwi
llei
therbeaheadoratai
l.
Exampl
e
i
.) I
facoi
nist
ossed;

P(
head)+P(t
ail
)
=

Not
e;
I
f[OR]i
susedt
henweadd

I
ndependentEv
ent
s
Twoev ent
sAandBar eindependenti
ftheoccurrenceofAdoesnoti
nfl
uencet
heoccurrenceof
Bandv i
cev er
sa.IfAandBar etwoi ndependentevent
s,thepr
obabi
li
tyofthem occurr
ing
toget
heristheproductofthei
rindi
vi
dualprobabi
li
ties.
Thati
s;
P(
AandB)=P(
A)xP(
B)
Not
e;
Whenweuse[
AND]wemul
ti
ply,
thi
sist
hemul
ti
pli
cat
ionl
awofpr
obabi
l
ity
.

Exampl
e
Acoi
nist
ossest
wice.Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityofget
ti
ngat
ail
inbot
htosses?
Sol
uti
on
Theout he2ndt
comeoft ossi
sindependoft
heout
comeoft
hef
ir
st.
Ther
efor
e;
P(
TandT)=P(T)XP(T)
==
Exampl
e
Aboyt
hrowsf
aircoi
nandar
egul
art
etr
ahedr
onwi
thi
tsf
ourf
acesmar
ked1,
2,
3and4.
Findt
he

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pr
obabi
l
ityt
hatheget
sa3ont
het
etr
ahedr
onandaheadont
hecoi
n.
Sol
uti
on
Thesear
eindependentev
ent
s.
P(
H)=P(
3)=
Ther
efor
e;
P(
Hand3)=P(
H)xP(
3)
=½x¼
=1/
8

Exampl
e
Abagcontai
ns8bl ackball
sand5whit
eones.
Ift
woball
saredr
awnf
rom t
hebag,oneata
t
ime,
fi
ndtheprobabi
li
tyofdr
awi
ngabl
ackbal
landawhi
tebal
l
.
a.
)Wi
thoutr
epl
acement

b.
)Wi
thr
epl
acement

Sol
uti
on
a.
)Thereareonlyt
wowayswecangetablackandawhit
ebal
l
:ei
therdr
awingawhi
tet
hen
abl
ack,
ordrawi
ngabl
ackt
henawhit
e.Weneedtofi
ndthet
woprobabi
li
ti
es;

P(W f
oll
owedbyB)=P(
W andB)
=
b.
)P(
Bfol
l
owedbyW)=P(
BandW)

Not
e;
Thet
woev
ent
sar
emut
ual
l
yexcl
usi
ve,
ther
efor
e.
P(
Wfol
l
owedbyB)or(Bf
oll
owedbyW )
=P(W f
oll
owedbyB)+P(Bf
oll
owedbyW)
=P(
W andB)+P(BandW)
=
Si
ncewear
erepl
aci
ng,
thenumberofbal
l
sremai
ns13.
Ther
efor
e;
P(
W andB)=

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P(BandW)=
Ther
efor
e;
P[
(W andB)or(
BandW)
]=P(
W andB)+P(
BandW)
=

Exampl
e
Kamau, Njor
ogeandKariukiarepr
acti
cingar
chery.
Theprobabi
li
tyofKamauhit
ti
ngt
hetargeti
s
2/5,
thatofNjorogehi
tt
ingt hetar
getis¼andt hatofKari
ukihi
tti
ngthet
argeti
s3/7,
Findthe
probabi
li
tythati
noneattempt;
a.
)Onl
yonehi
tst
het
arget

b.
)Al
lthr
eehi
tthet
arget

c.
)Noneoft
hem hi
tst
het
arget

d.
)Twohi
tthet
arget

e.
)Atl
eastonehi
tst
het
arget

Sol
uti
on
a.
)P(
onl
yonehi
tst
het
arget
)

=P(
onl
yKamauhi
tsandot
hert
womi
ss)=2/
5x3/
5x4/
7
=6/
35
P(
onl
yNj
orogehi
tsandot
hert
womi
ss)=1/
4x3/
5x4/
7
=3/
35
P(
onl
yKar
iuki
hit
sandot
hert
womi
ss)=3/
7x3/
5x¾
=27/
140
P(
onl
yonehi
ts)=P(
Kamauhi
tsorNj
orogehi
tsorKar
iuki
hit
s)
=6/
35+3/
35+27/
140
=9/
20
b.
)P(al
lthr
eehi
t)=2/
5x1/
4x3/
7

=3/
70
c.
)P(nonehi
ts) =3/
5x3/
4x4/
7

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 =9/
35
d.
)P(t
wohi
tthet
arget)i
sthepr
obabi
l
ityof;

KamauandNj
orogehi
tthet
argetandKar
iuki
misses=2/
5x3/
7x4/
7
Nj
orogeandKar
iuki
hitt
het
argetandKamaumi
sses=1/
4x3/
7x3/
5

Or

KamauandKar
iuki
hitt
het
argetandNj
orogemi
sses=2/
5x3/
7x3/
4
Ther
efor
eP(
twohi
ttar
get
)=(
2/5x1/
4x4/
7)+(
1/4x3/
7x3/
5)+(
2/5x3/
7x3/
4)
=8/
140+9/
140+18/
140
=¼
e.
)P(
atl
eastonehi
tst
het
arget
)=1–P(nonehi
tst
het
arget
)

=1–9/
35
=26/
35
Or

P(
atl
eastonehi
tst
het
arget
)=1–P(
nonehi
tst
het
arget
)
=26/
35

Not
e;
P(
onehi
tst
het
arget
)isdi
ff
erentf
rom P(
atl
eastonehi
tst
het
arget
)

Tr
eedi
agr
am
Treedi agramsall
owsust oseeallthepossi bl
eout comesofaneventandcal
culat
ethei
r
probali
ty.Eachbr
anchi
nat r
eediagr
am representsapossibl
eoutcome.
Atreedi
agram whi
ch
representacoinbei
ngt
ossedthr
eeti
mesl ookli
ket hi
s;

519
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Fr
om thetreedi
agram,wecanseethatther
ear eei
ghtpossibleout
comes.Tof i
ndoutthe
pr
obabi
li
tyofapar
ti
cularout
come,
weneedtolookatal
ltheav
ailabl
epaths(
setofbr
anches)
.

Thesum oft
hepr
obabi
l
iti
esf
oranysetofbr
anchesi
sal
way
s1.

Al
sonotet hati
natreediagr
am t
ofi
ndapr
obabi
l
ityofanout
comewemul
ti
plyal
ongt
he
br
anchesandaddver
ti
cal
l
y.

Thepr
obabi
l
ityoft
hreeheadsi
s:

P(
HHH)=1/
2×1/
2×1/
2=1/
8

P(
2HeadsandaTai
l
)=P(
HHT)+P(
HTH)+P(
THH)

=1/
2×1/
2×1/
2+1/
2×1/
2×1/
2+1/
2×1/
2×1/
2

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=1/
8+1/
8+1/
8

=3/
8
Exampl
e
BagAcont
ainst
hreeredmarbl
esandf ourbl
uemarbl
es.
BagBcont
ains5r
edmar
blesandt
hree
bl
uemarbl
es.Amarbl
eist
akenfrom eachbagint
urn.

a.
)Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityofget
ti
ngabl
uebeadf
oll
owedbyar
ed
b.
)Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityofget
ti
ngabeadofeachcol
or
Sol
uti
on
a.
)Mul
ti
plyt
hepr
obabi
l
iti
est
oget
her
P(bl
ueandr
ed)=4/
7x5/
8=20/
56
=5/
14
b.
)P(
blueandr
edorr
edandbl
ue)=P(bl
ueandr
ed)+P(
redandbl
ue)
=4/
7x5/
8+3/
7x3/
8
=20/
56+9/
56
=29/
56
Exampl
e
Theprobabi
li
tythatOmwer igoest
oNakur
uis¼. I
fhegoestoNakuru,t
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hathe
wil
lseefl
amingoi s½ .I
fhedoesnotgotoNakur
u,thepr
obabi
l
ityt
hathewil
lseef
lami
ngois
1/3.Fi
ndtheprobabi
l
itythat
;

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 a.
)Omwer
iwi
l
lgot
oNakur
uandseeaf
lami
ngo.
b.
)Omwer
iwi
l
lnotgot
oNakur
uyethewi
l
lseeaf
lami
ngo
c.
)Omwer
iwi
l
lseeaf
lami
ngo
Sol
uti
on
LetNstandf
orgoingtoNakur
u,N’standf
ornotgoi
ngt
oNakur
u,Fst
andf
orseei
ngaf
lami
ngo
andF’st
andfornotseei
ngafl
amingo.

a.
)P(
Hegoest
oNakur
uandseesaf
lami
ngo)=P(
NandF)
=P(
N)XP(
F)
=¼ X½
=1/
8
b.
)P(Hedoesnotgot
oNakur
uandy
etseesaf
lami
ngo)=P(N’
)XP(F)
=P(
N’andF)
=3/
4X1/
3
=¼
c.
)P(Heseesaf
lami
ngo)=P(
NandF)orP(N’
andF)
=P(
NandF)+P(
N’andF)
=1/
8+1/
4
=3/
8

Endoft
opi
c

522
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 Di
dy ouunder
standever
ythi
ng?
I
fnotaskateacher
,fri
endsoranybodyandmakesur
eyouunder
stand
bef
oregoi
ngtosleep!

PastKCSEQuest
ionsont
het
opi
c.

1. Thepr obabil
i
tiest
hatahusbandandwi
fewi
l
lbeal
i
ve25y
ear
sfr
om nowar
e0.
7and0.
9
respecti
vely
.
Fi
ndt
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hati
n25y
ear
sti
me,
(
a)Bot
hwi llbeali
ve
(
b)Nei
therwi l
lbealive
(
c)Onewillbealive
(
d)Atl
eastonewi l
lbealiv
e
2. Abagcontai
nsbl ue,greenandredpensofthesametypei
ntherat
io8:
2:5r
espect
ivel
y.
Apeni
spickedatr andom withoutr
epl
acementandi
tscol
ournot
ed
(
a) Det
ermi
net
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatt
hef
ir
stpenpi
ckedi
s
(
i) Bl
ue
(
ii
) Ei
thergr
eenorr
ed
(
b) Usi
ngat
reedi
agr
am,
det
ermi
net
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
(
i) Thef
ir
stt
wopenspi
ckedar
ebot
hgr
een
(
ii
) Onl
yoneoft
hef
ir
stt
wopenspi
ckedi
sred.
3. A sci
enceclubi
smadeupofboy sandgirl
s.Thecl
ubhas3of
fi
cial
s.Usi
ngat
ree
di
agram orot
her
wisef
indt
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
:
(
a)Thecl
ubof
fi
cial
sar
eal
lboy
s
(
b)Twooft
heof
fi
cial
sar
egi
rl
s
4. TwobasketsAandBeachcont ai
nami xt
ureoforangesandlimes,al
lofthesamesize.
BasketAcontai
ns26orangesand13l i
mes.BasketBcontains18orangesand15li
mes.
Achil
dselect
edabasketatrandom andpickedafr
uitatarandom f
rom it
.
(
a) I
ll
ust
rat
ethi
sinf
ormat
ionbyapr
obabi
l
iti
est
reedi
agr
am
(
b) Fi
ndt
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatt
hef
rui
tpi
ckedwasanor
ange.
5. Inform 1cl
assthereare22gi
rl
sandboys.Theprobabil
it
yofagi
rlcompl
eti
ngt
he
secondar
yeducat
ioncour
sei
s3wher
east
hatofaboyis2/3

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 (
a) Ast
udenti
spi
ckedatr
andom f
rom cl
ass.Fi
ndt
hepossi
bil
i
tyt
hat
,
(
i) Thestudentpi
ckedisaboyandwi ll
complet
ethecourse
(
ii
) Thestudentpi
ckedwillcomplet
ethecour
se
(
b) Twost
udentsarepickedatrandom.Fi
ndthepossi
bil
i
tythatt
heyar
eaboy
andagi
rlandt
hatbot
hwi
l
lnotcompl
etet
hecour
se.
6. Thr
eer
epr
esent
ati
vesar
etobesel
ect
edr
andoml
yfr
om agr
oupof7gi
rl
sand8
boy
s.Cal
cul
atet
hepr
obabi
l
ityofsel
ect
ingt
wogi
rl
sandoneboy
.
7. Apoul tr
yfarmerv acci
nated540ofhis720chi ckensagainstadi sease.Twomont hs
l
ater,5%ofthev acci
natedand80%oftheunvaccinatedchi
cken,contractedthedi
sease.
Calculat
etheprobabil
it
ythatachi
ckenchosenrandom contact
edthedi sease.
8. Theprobabi
l
ityofthreedartspl
ayer
sAki
nyi
,Kamau,andJumahi
tt
ingt
hebul
l
sey
ear
e
0.
2,0.
3and1. 5respect
ivel
y.
(
a) Dr
awapr
obabi
l
ityt
reedi
agr
am t
oshowt
hepossi
bleout
comes
(
b) Fi
ndt
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
:
(
i) Al
lhi
tthebul
l
’sey
e
(
ii
) Onl
yoneoft
hem hi
tthebul
l
’sey
e
(
ii
i) Atmostonemi
ssedt
hebul
l
’sey
e
9. (
a) Anunbi
asedcoi
nwi
tht
wof
aces,
head(
H)andt
ail
(T)
,ist
ossedt
hree
t
imes,
li
stal
lthepossi
bleout
comes.
Hencedet
ermi
net
hepr
obabi
l
ityofget
ti
ng:
(
i) Atl
eastt
woheads
(
ii
) Onl
yonet
ail
(
b)Duringacer t
ainmot orr al
lyiti
spr edict
edt hattheweatherwi l
lbeeit
herdry(D)orwet
(W).Thepr obabil
it
yt hattheweat herwi l
lbedr yisest
imat edtobe7/10.Theprobabi l
it
y
5
foradr i
vertocompl ete( C)therallyduringthedryweat herisesti
matedt obe / 6.The
probabil
i
tyforadr ivertocompl etet herall
yduringwetweat herisest
imatedtobe1/ 10.
Compl et
ethepr obabili
tytreedi
agram givenbelow.

524
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TEACHER.
CO.
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 Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
:
(
i) Thedr
ivercompl
etest
her
all
y?
(
ii
) Theweat
herwaswetandt
hedr
iverdi
dnotcompl
etet
her
all
y?
10. Ther
earethr
eecarsA,BandCinarace.Aist
wiceasl
i
kel
ytowi
nasBwhi
l
eBi
stwi
ce
asli
kel
ytowinasc.Fi
ndt
heprobabi
l
ityt
hat
.
a) Awi
nst
her
ace
b) Ei
therBorCwi
nst
her
ace.
11. I
nthey ear2003,t
hepopulat
ionofacert
aindi
str
ictwas1.
8mi l
li
on.Thirt
ypercentoft
he
popul
ationwasintheagegr oup15–40y ear
s.Inthesamey ear,120,
000peopleint
he
di
stri
ctvisi
tedt
heVolunt
aryCounsel
ingandTesti
ng(VCT)centr
ef oranHIVtest
.
I
faper
sonwassel
ect
edatrandom f
rom t
hedistr
icti
nthi
syear
.Fi
ndthepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
t
heper
sonvi
sit
edaVCTcentr
eandwasi ntheagegroup15–40year
s.
12. (
a) Twoi
nteger
sxandyar
esel
ect
edatr
andom f
rom t
hei
nteger
s1t
o8.I
fthe
samei
ntegermaybesel
ect
edt
wice,
findt
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hat
(
i) |
x–y|
=2
(
ii
) |
x–y|
is5ormor
e
(
ii
i) x
>y

525
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KE